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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

MarkHenderson wrote: »

No it's a direct result of creating have's and have not's in a society. You leave a lot of people behind and this is the reuslt.

Which is a direct result of UK government policy over the last decade. The only support going to diasadvantaged areas of the UK was from the EU. The party of the haves is the Tory party. You do realise that?

Leonard Hofstadter

joe40 wrote: »

In all this confusion and uncertainty sterling is holding up reasonably well. I think a Euro was 0.87 sterling this morning.
Are the currency markets quietly confident this will be all sorted out before March or is it just the calm before the storm. I'm no expert in this field but it affects me considerably

It's the only logical explanation for the recent increase in the pound's value, it's gone up quite a bit (although still miles away from what it was before the referendum). The recent statements from the EU show that they're not going to back down to the UK so that will hopefully force Parliament to intervene and stop a no-deal Brexit from happening.

LuckyLloyd

Tell me how wrote: »

Sir Ivan Rogers (until 2017 the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the European Union) has given another noteworthy speech.

Both the text (31 pages) and the video (1 Hr 10 min) are available at the link below.

Sir Ivan Rogers Speech to UCL European Institute

Contained within

He draws 4 main conclusions.

First, Article 50 can, for all its oddities, probably can work as an exit route.
Second, we have to understand how the EU works and negotiates, because
we shall, like it or not, not ever be floating free of ties and responsibilities in
the mid-Atlantic.
Third, baselines – where you start from - matter in negotiations.
Fourth and finally, one cannot rule out an extension of Article 50.

One of Theresa May's biggest mistakes was appointing people like David Davis, Boris Johnson to key roles in her government at the outset of negotiations while people like Rogers, with extensive experience of the EU were pushed to the sidelines and alienated because what they were saying was unpalatable.

I don't disagree with the points you highlight as notable, but I think the most substantive aspects of both this address and his one from December are his comments on the UK Service industry, a topic avoided in UK media and political discourse because of its complexity. The focus of all conversations is on goods and tariffs as they are a lot less complex and easy to grasp. Meanwhile a massive hit is coming to UK services or, at least, a number of Brexit 'red lines' will necessarily be traversed for Britain to retain broad levels of access to the service market of a global rules maker like the EU. He articulates these issues quite well.

Panrich

joe40 wrote: »

In all this confusion and uncertainty sterling is holding up reasonably well. I think a Euro was 0.87 sterling this morning.
Are the currency markets quietly confident this will be all sorted out before March or is it just the calm before the storm. I'm no expert in this field but it affects me considerably

I'm not an expert either but I've been looking at the GBP/EU exchange rates since the Brexit vote and it seems that there is growing optimism in the past month. This has to be related to the increased likelihood that parliament will defy whips and block no deal.

MrMusician18

Tell me how wrote: »

Sir Ivan Rogers (until 2017 the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the European Union) has given another noteworthy speech.

Both the text (31 pages) and the video (1 Hr 10 min) are available at the link below.

Sir Ivan Rogers Speech to UCL European Institute

Contained within

He draws 4 main conclusions.

First, Article 50 can, for all its oddities, probably can work as an exit route.
Second, we have to understand how the EU works and negotiates, because
we shall, like it or not, not ever be floating free of ties and responsibilities in
the mid-Atlantic.
Third, baselines – where you start from - matter in negotiations.
Fourth and finally, one cannot rule out an extension of Article 50.

One of Theresa May's biggest mistakes was appointing people like David Davis, Boris Johnson to key roles in her government at the outset of negotiations while people like Rogers, with extensive experience of the EU were pushed to the sidelines and alienated because what they were saying was unpalatable.

If May had sent Johnson to the backbenches then it's quite probably she wouldn't be PM now. Johnson was brought back in and made FS in order to stop him having the time to launch and coordinate a campaign against her. If you remember, Johnson was doing his utmost to be sacked, until he found something he could martyr himself on.

LuckyLloyd

joe40 wrote: »

In all this confusion and uncertainty sterling is holding up reasonably well. I think a Euro was 0.87 sterling this morning.
Are the currency markets quietly confident this will be all sorted out before March or is it just the calm before the storm. I'm no expert in this field but it affects me considerably

The market are assuming a No Deal Brexit will not happen. Hence the valuation. If a No Deal happens, the value of sterling will drop like a stone, likely below parity with the Euro at least.

[Deleted User]

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm inclined to disagree. Older people are more likely to vote than younger people and are also less likely to hold social media accounts. I'd say decades of negativity, vitriol and deceit have done more for Brexit than echo chambers.

Middle aged and a bit older people have social media and from listening to my mother and her friends about it it's a very diffrent version than I use.

Hurrache

The European Parliament itself is something that slipped to the back of my mind anyway in terms of Brexit, but today they came out with this statement, further knocking the idea from Britain that they can just go back to the EU negotiation team and renegotiate the backstop.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1088375801500831744

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1088402063736913920

sandbelter

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Airbus seems to be moving to Pratt & Whitney (US) and CFM International (France/US) engines for their A220, A320, A350 and the A380 is using the Engine Alliance (GE/Pratt & Whitney).

They still have options for the RR engines on the A330, but I think they are also offering Engine Alliance going forward.

Airbus offers RR option for A330 (it's exclusive on the NEO), A380 and RR is exclusive on the A350.

Boeing is increasingly linking exclusively up with GE (B777x and B748i are examples), Airbus are crucial for RR as they have always welcomed RR engines on their products, and they only have to look at Pratt and Whitney to see what the alternative looks like.

Adamcp898

Hurrache wrote: »

That's what I thought myself. Some are complaining they're avoiding the elephant in the room, but I like to think it's for reasons you say. Meanwhile Katya Adler from the BBC is still musing aloud as to what mechanism the EU may use to for their climb down from their backstop stance.

And geographically where's Ireland in the minds of Brexit and Remainer voters? Ireland, what's Ireland?

Are there no maps in the UK?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1088332296497909760

I always find these "draw the map" and "compare how many people hold a passport" exercises a little bit churlish and disingenuous.

The same point could have been made , but much more sincerely, by asking a few simple questions relating to brexit:

- What is brexit? (In the basic sense, not in the convoluted sense posed these days knowing full well there is no correct answer)
- Have you ever traveled to mainland Europe?
- What does this potentially mean for travelling to mainland Europe in the future?
- etc etc.

It would paint the exact same picture I'd wager but their responses and how informed they are would actually offer some insight into important questions Re: "were people sold a lie?". Instead of asking someone to draw the world map to scale and then laughing when they can't because I'd also wager that a damn sight high % of the educated population in any country of the world can't either.

Tell me how wrote: »

I think the media has largely failed in remaining impartial when discussing Brexit.

This tweet from the chief political commentator of the BBC could hardly be interpreted as anything other than derogatory towards Corbyn/Labour.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1088173584286134274

I think they have influenced their viewers in a manner similar to social media and which many more older people might be paying attention to. I agree though, it is because this has been going on for several decades that the public swell grew to vote to leave.

You have to remember the old "Tweets are my own" biscuit though and then attempt to judge their performance solely objectively on whatever programme on whatever broadcaster they're appearing on at the time and not through the prism of their "personal" views.

Which is a load of nonsense btw. They broadcast their "personal" views on their social media accounts and through opinion pieces which, no matter what disclaimer is used, will inherently colour people's perception of them, including most importantly the guests which they invite on their shows.

Hurrache

Adamcp898 wrote: »

I always find these "draw the map" and "compare how many people hold a passport" exercises a little bit churlish and disingenuous.

Maybe so in the case of you're given a blank atlas and have to fill in the names, but when you can't draw your immediate neighbour on a map, that's saying something.

Maybe it's all those years of only showing the 6 counties on the weather maps that conditioned them.

Hurrache

The Independent yet again being called out for writing inaccurate stories shocker. How many is that this week alone on the topic of Brexit?

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1088401748585267200

Tell me how

Adamcp898 wrote: »

You have to remember the old "Tweets are my own" biscuit though and then attempt to judge their performance solely objectively on whatever programme on whatever broadcaster they're appearing on at the time and not through the prism of their "personal" views.

Which is a load of nonsense btw. They broadcast their "personal" views on their social media accounts and through opinion pieces which, no matter what disclaimer is used, will inherently colour people's perception of them, including most importantly the guests which they invite on their shows.

I know. Which is partially why I found the Neil tweet interesting when he had the bust up with Owen Jones on this week two weeks ago. He was accused then of being ultra supportive of the right, he is not concerned about enforcing that view with tweets such as the above.

Adamcp898

Hurrache wrote: »

Maybe so in the case of you're given a blank atlas and have to fill in the names, but when you can't draw your immediate neighbour on a map, that's saying something.

Maybe it's all those years of only showing the 6 counties on the weather maps that conditioned them.

It doesn't really say much of anything without knowing more about the survey and the conditions it was held under.

I'm not sure for what issue regarding Brexit "draw us a world map" would even be considered the best method of coaxing an honest response from people. If anything it immediately muddies the water by not accounting for the participants ability to structure scale and perspective while sketching. And is a sketch even to be considered a wholly accurate representation of the subject or is it just a general.........sketch?

Anyway, my point is that there were surely better ways of asking the same question that would've yielded much more information. Only those tend not to look as well in PowerPoint.

Hurrache

I think you're over complicating the point that when some people were asked to draw a map, they omitted Ireland. I'm not talking about mercator projection issues or anything more complicated than that.

Adamcp898

Tell me how wrote: »

I know. Which is partially why I found the Neil tweet interesting when he had the bust up with Owen Jones on this week two weeks ago. He was accused then of being ultra supportive of the right, he is not concerned about enforcing that view with tweets such as the above.

The Neil-Jones thing goes back much much further though than the latest appearance on "This Week". The shot at Corbyn is due to Corbyn having supported Chavez/Maduro in the past.

Hurrache wrote: »

I think you're over complicating the point that when some people were asked to draw a map, they omitted Ireland. I'm not talking about mercator projection issues or anything more complicated than that.

Ah I know, my response is meant more tongue-in-cheek than it probably reads.

In my personal opinion, exercises such as that only serve to cheapen the point they're trying to make is all i.e. it's guilty of all the things we criticise media for nowadays. Those who already agreed with the point will use it as a stick to point and laugh at the opposition while those who already disagreed with the point to begin with will label it as a childish way of attempting to misrepresent them. The net-net is that nobody's opinion will change but an opportunity has been lost.

Call me Al

Damian Hinds getting an absolute roasting on Daily Politics. Can't respond to comments on data (or lack of same) surrounding FTA's, or comments surrounding the internal feud and machinations of the Tories.
Well at least he knows what regulatory alignment is which is something.

trellheim

the pol corrs are getting themselves worked up in a circle something awful .

1. The EU says "in the event of a no deal there will have to be a huge amount of work done to avoid a border " (said work implying the UK stays in the EU and so forth )

this leads to a truly silly logic jump from the poll corrs

2. "so why need the backstop at all ? Surely its not needed therefore "

AAAARGGGG

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

the pol corrs are getting themselves worked up in a circle something awful .

1. The EU says "in the event of a no deal there will have to be a huge amount of work done to avoid a border " (said work implying the UK stays in the EU and so forth )

this leads to a truly silly logic jump from the poll corrs

2. "so why need the backstop at all ? Surely its not needed therefore "

AAAARGGGG

Not sure I'm following your logic there.

Are you sure you don't mean the CU etc.?

eggman100

prawnsambo wrote: »

Strong rumours that £650 billion worth of assets were shifted to Ireland from London last year. It might explain the sudden and unexplained rise in corporate tax receipts. Presumably more to follow.

But some one post wonder comes on here with their brexit central propaganda and expects us to believe it?

I had to post to correct some of you who seem to have been brainwashed by the Irish mainstream media and the BS coming out of Leos mouth whenever he talks about Brexit.
Particular sources of mis-information are Newstalk radio which seems to be the Guardian of the radio world. I thought the bias in the UK was bad but in Ireland it seems the regulator is missing

Hurrache

eggman100 wrote: »

I had to post to correct some of you who seem to have been brainwashed by the Irish mainstream media and the BS coming out of Leos mouth whenever he talks about Brexit.
Particular sources of mis-information are Newstalk radio which seems to be the Guardian of the radio world. I thought the bias in the UK was bad but in Ireland it seems the regulator is missing

Usually when someone sets out to correct people they do so with facts. Have you any?

eggman100

oscarBravo wrote: »

How about putting even the faintest hint of an effort into understanding how the EU works instead of mindlessly mouthing tired Brexiteer rhetoric?

I have studied the EU since the late 90s and seen it go from bad to worse. I completely understand it and have been wanting the UK to leave since then, so this is nothing new and its a long time coming. It would have happened earlier and with a bigger vote majority had they given us the referendum years before instead of when it suited Cameron thinking his remain position would win. Your reply shows you have no idea about the EU, or why the UK voted to leave. Until you educate yourself, you will always be frustrated about it

listermint

eggman100 wrote: »

I have studied the EU since the late 90s and seen it go from bad to worse. I completely understand it and have been wanting the UK to leave since then, so this is nothing new and its a long time coming. It would have happened earlier and with a bigger vote majority had they given us the referendum years before instead of when it suited Cameron thinking his remain position would win. Your reply shows you have no idea about the EU, or why the UK voted to leave. Until you educate yourself, you will always be frustrated about it

Oh interesting.

Tell us more about the EU then and your thoughts on it.

eggman100

joe40 wrote: »

In all this confusion and uncertainty sterling is holding up reasonably well. I think a Euro was 0.87 sterling this morning.
Are the currency markets quietly confident this will be all sorted out before March or is it just the calm before the storm. I'm no expert in this field but it affects me considerably

That is a difficult one to call. They may have priced in what they think is going to happen already. Don't forget that currency trading is speculative and it can be oversold or undersold.
In the case of no deal I predict the £ could fall initially then as the UK reaps the benefits and adjusts to the new status quo of being no longer a member of the EU, the £ will rise back up to old levels. The Eurozone will be weaker without its top 3 contributor and the EU will have to find the money from France or Germany but they aren't doing too well either. EU contributions will rise from remaining member states. Taxes will rise

downcow

eggman100 wrote: »

That is a difficult one to call. They may have priced in what they think is going to happen already. Don't forget that currency trading is speculative and it can be oversold or undersold.
In the case of no deal I predict the £ could fall initially then as the UK reaps the benefits and adjusts to the new status quo of being no longer a member of the EU, the £ will rise back up to old levels. The Eurozone will be weaker without its top 3 contributor and the EU will have to find the money from France or Germany but they aren't doing too well either. EU contributions will rise from remaining member states. Taxes will rise

This makes total sense

listermint

eggman100 wrote: »

That is a difficult one to call. They may have priced in what they think is going to happen already. Don't forget that currency trading is speculative and it can be oversold or undersold.
In the case of no deal I predict the £ could fall initially then as the UK reaps the benefits and adjusts to the new status quo of being no longer a member of the EU, the £ will rise back up to old levels. The Eurozone will be weaker without its top 3 contributor and the EU will have to find the money from France or Germany but they aren't doing too well either. EU contributions will rise from remaining member states. Taxes will rise

Im still waiting on you to fill us in on your vast studied knowledge of the EU.

Earlier today you were saying the Britain doesnt need to stockpile anything, yet you have an MP who claimed to be the biggest Fridge purchaser in the world with smiley abandon.

I mean like sure you dont need to stockpile anything.... and that....

Leroy42

Eggman100, do you know what the entire Eu budget is and what % of that is paid for by the UK?

Also, the UK will now either have to pay to remain in certain EU groups or pay to set up their own. Either way this is going to cost them more.

Have you any details of the trade deals that will be done to allieviate the lost trade with the EU?

Since the 1990's, when you state the EU has gone from bad to worse, can you explain what has be happening better in the UK, and what will happen better when they leave?

You are aware that the PM recently suffered the largest defeat in HoC history but didn't even think about stepping down. That JRM yesterday claimed that the parliament should be shut down if a vote goes against his wishes. That the body politic is currently of the view that listening to the public is a bad thing.

lawred2

eggman100 wrote: »

I have studied the EU since the late 90s and seen it go from bad to worse. I completely understand it and have been wanting the UK to leave since then, so this is nothing new and its a long time coming. It would have happened earlier and with a bigger vote majority had they given us the referendum years before instead of when it suited Cameron thinking his remain position would win. Your reply shows you have no idea about the EU, or why the UK voted to leave. Until you educate yourself, you will always be frustrated about it

maybe you could educate us and list some of these frustrations please

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

This makes total sense

Just like the way it rebounded after the blip after the Leave vote you mean?

JRM, Davis etc have all stated that the fall in Stg is a good thing, so why would you think they are even looking for it to be stronger?

eggman100

prawnsambo wrote: »

Which is a direct result of UK government policy over the last decade. The only support going to diasadvantaged areas of the UK was from the EU. The party of the haves is the Tory party. You do realise that?

Complete rubbish, no party has done more for the working man, helped people out of poverty and back to work than the Conservatives. They are the party of business and sound economics. Whereas Labour will screw the poor by making them poorer along with everyone else too.