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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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ancapailldorcha

Posts deleted and bans issued. No more one-liners please.

Akrasia

Seth Brundle wrote: »

It needs more leading CEOs to follow up with similar comments.

More Project fear you mean.

If Dyson moving his company to Singapore isn't enough to make brexiteers question the motives of their champions, then nothing will.

CelticRambler

Lovely ambush of Martin Howe, QC, on Sky a few minutes ago:
MH : "No need to have physical infrastructure on the border ... [controls] can be done at the premises sending and receiving goods.

Some people use the words "hard border" to mean any sort of controls at all, whether they're conducted at the border or not.

There's no requirement under WTO law to have physical controls at the border."

Sky: Where can you cite where this doesn't take place?
MH: "There are very open borders, for example, between Switzerland and the EU, and between Norway and Sweden, both of which are ..."
Sky: I've been to both places and both of them have physical infrastructure.
MH: "But you don't need it!"
Sky: Why is it there if you don't need it?
MH: [squirms] Lets look at the position in Ireland and the Irish border. There are something like 300 road crossings ...

Sky: Where there are two different trading blocs - you've cited Switzerland, you've cited Scandinavia - in both cases there are actual physical infrastructure.
MH: "You don't need it! Let me explain this: there's no requirement under WTO rules to enforce customs controls by having a man wearing a peaked cap putting a pole across the road on the border!"

So there you have it. The Swiss are being primitive and inefficient, with their silly customs posts and lorry parks. :cool:

Zubeneschamali

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Seems similar to another (now banned) poster who reckoned that the USA and UK were "well within their rights" to invade the countries of the EU because of brexit.

I seem to recall a politician warning Spain that the British still have a navy if things get heated at Gibraltar?

Googling, yes, it was Michael Howerd, pointing out that another woman PM sent the navy to sort out the Argies for the Falklands, so Spain shouldn't get too grabby with Gibraltar.

prawnsambo

marieholmfan wrote: »

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

So if they pay back all the money they got, will you let them go without nuking them?

On a serious note, there's talk of companies who located in the UK because of their EU membership, suing the government for losses incurred that are directly associated with brexit because it's a clear breach of undertakings made to attract them there in the first place.

Russman

Leroy42 wrote: »

And now we have Tory MP's calling for nationalisation of factories, which thought they were totally against and what they hate so much about Corbyn.

Yesterday we had JRM calling for the closing of parliament if a vote didn't go they way he liked, so sovereignty up to a point I suppose.

The the collective idea seems to be that democracy in the form of voting is actually undemocratic!

Once the craziness takes hold and mob mentality kicks in, there's no limit to what they'll come out with now. Unless of course some people stand to loose a lot of money (or maybe to not make a huge amount of money) if Brexit is postponed/cancelled - that'd make me pretty angry if it was me.

"Super project fear" ?? WTF is that then ? Will the thousands of trucks stuck at the border crossings be all a figment of someone's imagination ?

The UK desperately needs a leader to somehow shout "stop the madness", but I can't see it happening.

J Mysterio

marieholmfan wrote: »

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

lol, what a joke. Do you think they should nuke Airbus HQ or send the special forces in?

Grow up, this is a direct result of British idiocy as represented by Brexit.

Tell me how

Sir Ivan Rogers (until 2017 the Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the European Union) has given another noteworthy speech.

Both the text (31 pages) and the video (1 Hr 10 min) are available at the link below.

Sir Ivan Rogers Speech to UCL European Institute

Contained within

We are now being flogged the proposition that in order to move from a deep preferential agreement - the supranational political, juridical and enforcement aspects of high you deplore, but which gives you much the best trading terms with the bloc, above all in the sectors in which you are highly competitive - to a less deep, but normal EU preferential agreement which gives you substantially better access than WTO terms, the best route is to go all the way out to WTO terms first.

Because that will give you the whip hand in negotiations with a bloc for which the absence of any preferential deal covers a vastly lower proportion of its trade than it does of yours.

And the bloc would therefore come begging for a new preferential deal, drop completely its demand for the backstop, accept that technological and administrative solutions to the border suffice, when they have repeatedly previously made clear they cannot, and settle for much less than the money that the U.K. Prime Minister had already agreed to pay if she got an acceptable Withdrawal Agreement – which she now publicly agrees she has.

This stuff would make snake oil salesmen blush.

We are left with the bizarre spectacle of Brexiteers, many of whom used to argue that exiting to Norwegian or Swiss style destinations would be a vast improvement on remaining in the EU, because these were vibrant Parliamentary democracies whose peoples had bravely spurned European political integration in favour of free trading relationships from outside, arguing that if the U.K. now “escaped” only to such a destination, it would be a terrible betrayal.

It would be “Brexit in Name Only”, as bad as or worse than, the Prime Minister’s lousy deal, and a triumph for the “deep state” that has been wanting to sabotage Brexit from the outset.

He draws 4 main conclusions.

First, Article 50 can, for all its oddities, probably can work as an exit route.
Second, we have to understand how the EU works and negotiates, because
we shall, like it or not, not ever be floating free of ties and responsibilities in
the mid-Atlantic.
Third, baselines – where you start from - matter in negotiations.
Fourth and finally, one cannot rule out an extension of Article 50.

One of Theresa May's biggest mistakes was appointing people like David Davis, Boris Johnson to key roles in her government at the outset of negotiations while people like Rogers, with extensive experience of the EU were pushed to the sidelines and alienated because what they were saying was unpalatable.

CrabRevolution

Seems similar to another (now banned) poster who reckoned that the USA and UK were "well within their rights" to invade the countries of the EU because of brexit.

Leroy42

And now we have Tory MP's calling for nationalisation of factories, which thought they were totally against and what they hate so much about Corbyn.

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1088348314930679809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1088348314930679809&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fjan%2F24%2Fbrexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live

Yesterday we had JRM calling for the closing of parliament if a vote didn't go they way he liked, so sovereignty up to a point I suppose.

The the collective idea seems to be that democracy in the form of voting is actually undemocratic!

FrancieBrady

That escalated quickly!

But it does underline the threat that the fracturing of the political system in the UK and the breakup of the Union itself could lead to very nasty violent cul de sacs.

lawred2

marieholmfan wrote: »

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

What is this nonsense?

Firstly - Brexit is a UK abomination. No one else's.

Secondly - Airbus is a multi national. It is not a sovereign nation. You think the UK government should issue threats of nuclear retaliation against a board of directors?

Who exactly do you see should be the target of these threats? Maybe threats of carpet bombing Broughton is what you're thinking of?

Since when did threats of nuclear anything achieve anything but the designation as an international pariah...

This is loony bin talk. Serves no purpose and has no value as a contribution whatsoever.

megatron989

marieholmfan wrote: »

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

Em, what? The UK should go to war with airbus now? I think you've reached Brexit level 2, congrats.

Leroy42

marieholmfan wrote: »

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

So kind of like the UK having to pay the £39bn, automatically allow all EU citizens permanent and complete freedom to remain and live up to the GFA?

marieholmfan

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

Banned.

robinph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

That is the flagship that should focus all minds, but maybe the UK is truly too far gone.

One of the main UK Airbus, and the associated Rolls Royce engines, sites being right in the middle of one of constituencies for a full on Brexit supporting MP, who recently had an affair with another MP and they call the resulting sprog "Brexit" as it was born around the time of the referendum.

The major employer in his constituency that will not operate out side of the EU, and he's still convinced that Brexit is a good thing.

Seth Brundle

cantwbr1 wrote: »

The language used by the Airbus chief was striking in that he made no attempt to fudge or be anyway diplomatic in his comments.
Will probably be waved away as more project fear

It needs more leading CEOs to follow up with similar comments.

cantwbr1

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

If there is a no-deal Brexit, we at Airbus will have to make potentially very harmful decisions for the U.K.

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

The language used by the Airbus chief was striking in that he made no attempt to fudge or be anyway diplomatic in his comments.
Will probably be waved away as more project fear

spacecoyote

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

Sony also moving their HQ away from the UK to ensure that they are company based in the EU

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46968720

Russman

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is the flagship that should focus all minds, but maybe the UK is truly too far gone.

I think this is likely the case. Once emotions and "feelings" come into it (and in truth, the Brexiteers main argument was always an emotional thing) no amount of stats, facts and figures will turn them. Stiff upper lip and all that.

The very fact that someone like JRM wants to suspend parliament in case it makes a decision he disagrees with, speaks volumes of just how mad things have become over there.

You'd wonder who the people would blame if it came to pass that Airbus pulled out and 14,000 jobs were lost, would it be the nasty EU, the nasty French company or the UK's own politicians ?

FrancieBrady

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

That is the flagship that should focus all minds, but maybe the UK is truly too far gone.

mickoneill31

CelticRambler wrote: »

When I took out a year-long travel insurance policy with a UK-based company last September, I asked them what would happen post Brexit. They told me they had an EU company ready to pick up all the policies for non-UK domiciled customers.

All part of the slow and probably irreversible damage to the UK's economy, and why the Brexiteers' belief that the relevant "last minute" is 22:59 on March 29th. The real last minute has come and gone; the EU didn't blink, and the UK's corporate taxpayers have already voted with their balance sheets.

I started a job last week for a major company. The job I'm now doing was being done in London but the guy left. The people leaving in London are being replaced in European offices. No redundancies or press release. This must be happening all over the place.

ilovesmybrick

If there is a no-deal Brexit, we at Airbus will have to make potentially very harmful decisions for the U.K.

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

Capt'n Midnight

CelticRambler wrote: »

Felixstowe - isn't that where they didn't do customs checks on all that Chinese crap that they got fined for allowing flood the EU ...? :rolleyes:

You're making the HM Revenue and Customs sound incompetent.

But the UK is just like the rest of Europe. You can be fined if you don't pay your tax on time.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46952162

Some 653 people who submitted their tax returns by the start of January were hit by the bogus late-payment penalty charges.

They received letters from HMRC telling them they'd missed the deadline and so had to pay a penalty of £100, even though many had submitted returns almost a month ahead of the 31 January deadline.

Guess who's planning to replace their 25 year old Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight (CHIEF) system with a new Customs Declaration Service (CDS) ?

And guess when it's due to happen ?

CelticRambler

Felixstowe - isn't that where they didn't do customs checks on all that Chinese crap that they got fined for allowing flood the EU ...? :rolleyes:

Capt'n Midnight

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Holyhead is not even in the top 10 by tonnage though, see page 5...

Correction - It's the second busiest ferry port.

For stuff like Oil or LNG tankers they can send the paperwork days or weeks ahead.

BTW about half the traffic in the Irish Sea is unaccompanied.
Felixstowe Port boosts capacity ready for Brexit

A UK port and Danish ferry operator DFDS have agreed to increase roll-on, roll-off, capacity by more than 40% to help freight shipping after Brexit.
...
"Felixstowe is primarily an unaccompanied port where cargo arrives without a lorry, is taken from the boat to the port and on to a holding area. A vehicle then applies for the cargo and takes it away.

Enzokk

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The DUP have already ruled out an Irish Sea border... why are we still talking about this?

The DUP is not the UK Government nor should 10 votes decide policy for the whole country. It is beyond ironic that the threat of the SNP being a coalition partner with Labour was used by Cameron in 2015 and is probably what gave him the majority that forced the referendum on the UK. In 2019 you have the Conservatives towing the line of the DUP for their support to keep them in government. Cameron really is the gift that keeps on giving, a absolute shambles of a PM that should be remembered as the father of austerity and most likely also of the break up the the UK.

In any case, as for the DUP you have to wonder when the Theresa May will realise that she cannot be held to ransom by 10 votes and should call their bluff. She is screwed either way right now, if she cannot get Brexit through she is done. She cannot get it through because of the DUP (and other reasons but they are a big reason) who will threaten her with a General Election if she doesn't do their bidding. So she is going to lose her job either way it seems to me, rather do it on her terms by getting Brexit over the line than having the world crumble around her and she fight Cameron for the title of the worst PM in history.

ThePanjandrum

josip wrote: »

A quick google, if one were so inclined, suggests the following early on from 2016.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-12-15/wales-still-poorest-part-of-uk/

The Office for National Statistics explains that the figure has been hugely affected because of the number of people who commute from Anglesey, they say that there is the opposite effect in London.

I believe that the GVA(I) has now been replaced as a reliable indicator in the UK.

At the NUTS3 level, in 2016, Camden and City of London had the highest GVA per head, in current basic prices, at £318,673 while the Isle of Anglesey had the lowest at £13,655; both extremes are highly affected by commuting flows.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/winston-churchill-spoke-of-his-hopes-for-a-united-ireland-1.2002997%3fmode=amp

Churchill threatened Michael Collins with 'terrible war' if they did not sign the treaty. He was a war monger of the worst kind, and certainly not a friend of Ireland.

prawnsambo

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Spent some of his childhood staying in knockdrin castle in Westmeath

And in what would have then been the Vice Regal Lodge. Áras an Uachtaráin to the rest of us.