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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

Christy42 wrote: »

Anyone else been getting forms mentioning insurance has changed companies due to Brexit?

I got it for some jewelry and some electronics. Apparently some stores use underwriters in the UK/Gibraltar when they offer you insurance for whatever your purchase is. So letters have come in saying it has been switched to somewhere in the EU away from the previous one with Brexit as the reason given as they are unsure of how these laws about insuring across different countries will work.

Presumably happening for people in the UK as well if an electronics store in England used a German underwriter they may have to switch out to a UK one.

Would love to know if there is enough of these for a serious effect (especially as the underwriters seem to specialise in this sort of insurance) and which way the cash is flowing here.

Pretty much every underwriter that is based in London has now opened an office in another EU state if they didn't already have one. And have shifted all their EU business there. Dublin has got a few and then pretty much all the financial centres around Europe.

Big names like AIG, Allianz, Chubb, Lloyds etc.

ThePanjandrum

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Anglesey is the poorest place in the UK. This was the view there back in November. Since then the Nuclear plant has been cancelled so 9,000 construction jobs won't be happening.

The port of Holyhead is the second busiest in the UK. A Hard Border might tempt Northern Ireland truckers to use Liverpool or Cairnryan instead.

A really Hard Border means they have even less choice. Northern Ireland hauliers can expect a total of 60 permits, each one linked to an individual vehicle, for a 12-month period.

I can't see Anglesey listed anywhere as the poorest place in the UK. What is your reference for your claim?

josip

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I can't see Anglesey listed anywhere as the poorest place in the UK. What is your reference for your claim?

A quick google, if one were so inclined, suggests the following early on from 2016.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-12-15/wales-still-poorest-part-of-uk/

oscarBravo

eggman100 wrote: »

How about also governing yourselves instead of Ireland being like a county council of your masters in EU government?

How about putting even the faintest hint of an effort into understanding how the EU works instead of mindlessly mouthing tired Brexiteer rhetoric?

nice_guy80

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He also longed for a United Ireland and preferred people in the South to people in the North.

Spent some of his childhood staying in knockdrin castle in Westmeath

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

Do you have any sources for this? My understanding is Churchill was extremely aggressive and antagonistic to Ireland.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/winston-churchill-spoke-of-his-hopes-for-a-united-ireland-1.2002997%3fmode=amp

BonnieSituation

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Spent some of his childhood staying in knockdrin castle in Westmeath

Sure his grandpappy was Viceroy so would have spent some time up in the Áras.

CelticRambler

Christy42 wrote: »

Anyone else been getting forms mentioning insurance has changed companies due to Brexit?

When I took out a year-long travel insurance policy with a UK-based company last September, I asked them what would happen post Brexit. They told me they had an EU company ready to pick up all the policies for non-UK domiciled customers.

All part of the slow and probably irreversible damage to the UK's economy, and why the Brexiteers' belief that the relevant "last minute" is 22:59 on March 29th. The real last minute has come and gone; the EU didn't blink, and the UK's corporate taxpayers have already voted with their balance sheets.

prawnsambo

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Spent some of his childhood staying in knockdrin castle in Westmeath

And in what would have then been the Vice Regal Lodge. Áras an Uachtaráin to the rest of us.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/winston-churchill-spoke-of-his-hopes-for-a-united-ireland-1.2002997%3fmode=amp

Churchill threatened Michael Collins with 'terrible war' if they did not sign the treaty. He was a war monger of the worst kind, and certainly not a friend of Ireland.

ThePanjandrum

josip wrote: »

A quick google, if one were so inclined, suggests the following early on from 2016.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-12-15/wales-still-poorest-part-of-uk/

The Office for National Statistics explains that the figure has been hugely affected because of the number of people who commute from Anglesey, they say that there is the opposite effect in London.

I believe that the GVA(I) has now been replaced as a reliable indicator in the UK.

At the NUTS3 level, in 2016, Camden and City of London had the highest GVA per head, in current basic prices, at £318,673 while the Isle of Anglesey had the lowest at £13,655; both extremes are highly affected by commuting flows.

Enzokk

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

The DUP have already ruled out an Irish Sea border... why are we still talking about this?

The DUP is not the UK Government nor should 10 votes decide policy for the whole country. It is beyond ironic that the threat of the SNP being a coalition partner with Labour was used by Cameron in 2015 and is probably what gave him the majority that forced the referendum on the UK. In 2019 you have the Conservatives towing the line of the DUP for their support to keep them in government. Cameron really is the gift that keeps on giving, a absolute shambles of a PM that should be remembered as the father of austerity and most likely also of the break up the the UK.

In any case, as for the DUP you have to wonder when the Theresa May will realise that she cannot be held to ransom by 10 votes and should call their bluff. She is screwed either way right now, if she cannot get Brexit through she is done. She cannot get it through because of the DUP (and other reasons but they are a big reason) who will threaten her with a General Election if she doesn't do their bidding. So she is going to lose her job either way it seems to me, rather do it on her terms by getting Brexit over the line than having the world crumble around her and she fight Cameron for the title of the worst PM in history.

Capt'n Midnight

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Holyhead is not even in the top 10 by tonnage though, see page 5...

Correction - It's the second busiest ferry port.

For stuff like Oil or LNG tankers they can send the paperwork days or weeks ahead.

BTW about half the traffic in the Irish Sea is unaccompanied.
Felixstowe Port boosts capacity ready for Brexit

A UK port and Danish ferry operator DFDS have agreed to increase roll-on, roll-off, capacity by more than 40% to help freight shipping after Brexit.
...
"Felixstowe is primarily an unaccompanied port where cargo arrives without a lorry, is taken from the boat to the port and on to a holding area. A vehicle then applies for the cargo and takes it away.

CelticRambler

Felixstowe - isn't that where they didn't do customs checks on all that Chinese crap that they got fined for allowing flood the EU ...? :rolleyes:

Capt'n Midnight

CelticRambler wrote: »

Felixstowe - isn't that where they didn't do customs checks on all that Chinese crap that they got fined for allowing flood the EU ...? :rolleyes:

You're making the HM Revenue and Customs sound incompetent.

But the UK is just like the rest of Europe. You can be fined if you don't pay your tax on time.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46952162

Some 653 people who submitted their tax returns by the start of January were hit by the bogus late-payment penalty charges.

They received letters from HMRC telling them they'd missed the deadline and so had to pay a penalty of £100, even though many had submitted returns almost a month ahead of the 31 January deadline.

Guess who's planning to replace their 25 year old Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight (CHIEF) system with a new Customs Declaration Service (CDS) ?

And guess when it's due to happen ?

ilovesmybrick

If there is a no-deal Brexit, we at Airbus will have to make potentially very harmful decisions for the U.K.

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

mickoneill31

CelticRambler wrote: »

When I took out a year-long travel insurance policy with a UK-based company last September, I asked them what would happen post Brexit. They told me they had an EU company ready to pick up all the policies for non-UK domiciled customers.

All part of the slow and probably irreversible damage to the UK's economy, and why the Brexiteers' belief that the relevant "last minute" is 22:59 on March 29th. The real last minute has come and gone; the EU didn't blink, and the UK's corporate taxpayers have already voted with their balance sheets.

I started a job last week for a major company. The job I'm now doing was being done in London but the guy left. The people leaving in London are being replaced in European offices. No redundancies or press release. This must be happening all over the place.

FrancieBrady

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

That is the flagship that should focus all minds, but maybe the UK is truly too far gone.

Russman

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is the flagship that should focus all minds, but maybe the UK is truly too far gone.

I think this is likely the case. Once emotions and "feelings" come into it (and in truth, the Brexiteers main argument was always an emotional thing) no amount of stats, facts and figures will turn them. Stiff upper lip and all that.

The very fact that someone like JRM wants to suspend parliament in case it makes a decision he disagrees with, speaks volumes of just how mad things have become over there.

You'd wonder who the people would blame if it came to pass that Airbus pulled out and 14,000 jobs were lost, would it be the nasty EU, the nasty French company or the UK's own politicians ?

spacecoyote

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

Sony also moving their HQ away from the UK to ensure that they are company based in the EU

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46968720

cantwbr1

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

If there is a no-deal Brexit, we at Airbus will have to make potentially very harmful decisions for the U.K.

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

The language used by the Airbus chief was striking in that he made no attempt to fudge or be anyway diplomatic in his comments.
Will probably be waved away as more project fear

Seth Brundle

cantwbr1 wrote: »

The language used by the Airbus chief was striking in that he made no attempt to fudge or be anyway diplomatic in his comments.
Will probably be waved away as more project fear

It needs more leading CEOs to follow up with similar comments.

robinph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Airbus threatening to move future investments out of the UK in case of a no deal Brexit.

Airbus Calls Brexit Process a Disgrace, Threatens to Leave U.K.

That is the flagship that should focus all minds, but maybe the UK is truly too far gone.

One of the main UK Airbus, and the associated Rolls Royce engines, sites being right in the middle of one of constituencies for a full on Brexit supporting MP, who recently had an affair with another MP and they call the resulting sprog "Brexit" as it was born around the time of the referendum.

The major employer in his constituency that will not operate out side of the EU, and he's still convinced that Brexit is a good thing.

marieholmfan

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

Banned.

Leroy42

marieholmfan wrote: »

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

So kind of like the UK having to pay the £39bn, automatically allow all EU citizens permanent and complete freedom to remain and live up to the GFA?

megatron989

marieholmfan wrote: »

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

Em, what? The UK should go to war with airbus now? I think you've reached Brexit level 2, congrats.

lawred2

marieholmfan wrote: »

Airbus should not leave England without repaying all launch aid received for the past 30 years.
The UK should make clear that declarations of economic war against a NUCLEAR power are very very unwise.

What is this nonsense?

Firstly - Brexit is a UK abomination. No one else's.

Secondly - Airbus is a multi national. It is not a sovereign nation. You think the UK government should issue threats of nuclear retaliation against a board of directors?

Who exactly do you see should be the target of these threats? Maybe threats of carpet bombing Broughton is what you're thinking of?

Since when did threats of nuclear anything achieve anything but the designation as an international pariah...

This is loony bin talk. Serves no purpose and has no value as a contribution whatsoever.

FrancieBrady

That escalated quickly!

But it does underline the threat that the fracturing of the political system in the UK and the breakup of the Union itself could lead to very nasty violent cul de sacs.

Leroy42

And now we have Tory MP's calling for nationalisation of factories, which thought they were totally against and what they hate so much about Corbyn.

https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1088348314930679809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1088348314930679809&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fjan%2F24%2Fbrexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live

Yesterday we had JRM calling for the closing of parliament if a vote didn't go they way he liked, so sovereignty up to a point I suppose.

The the collective idea seems to be that democracy in the form of voting is actually undemocratic!

CrabRevolution

Seems similar to another (now banned) poster who reckoned that the USA and UK were "well within their rights" to invade the countries of the EU because of brexit.