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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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CelticRambler

Christy42 wrote: »

Anyone else been getting forms mentioning insurance has changed companies due to Brexit?

When I took out a year-long travel insurance policy with a UK-based company last September, I asked them what would happen post Brexit. They told me they had an EU company ready to pick up all the policies for non-UK domiciled customers.

All part of the slow and probably irreversible damage to the UK's economy, and why the Brexiteers' belief that the relevant "last minute" is 22:59 on March 29th. The real last minute has come and gone; the EU didn't blink, and the UK's corporate taxpayers have already voted with their balance sheets.

BonnieSituation

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Spent some of his childhood staying in knockdrin castle in Westmeath

Sure his grandpappy was Viceroy so would have spent some time up in the Áras.

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

Do you have any sources for this? My understanding is Churchill was extremely aggressive and antagonistic to Ireland.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/winston-churchill-spoke-of-his-hopes-for-a-united-ireland-1.2002997%3fmode=amp

nice_guy80

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He also longed for a United Ireland and preferred people in the South to people in the North.

Spent some of his childhood staying in knockdrin castle in Westmeath

oscarBravo

eggman100 wrote: »

How about also governing yourselves instead of Ireland being like a county council of your masters in EU government?

How about putting even the faintest hint of an effort into understanding how the EU works instead of mindlessly mouthing tired Brexiteer rhetoric?

josip

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I can't see Anglesey listed anywhere as the poorest place in the UK. What is your reference for your claim?

A quick google, if one were so inclined, suggests the following early on from 2016.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-12-15/wales-still-poorest-part-of-uk/

ThePanjandrum

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Anglesey is the poorest place in the UK. This was the view there back in November. Since then the Nuclear plant has been cancelled so 9,000 construction jobs won't be happening.

The port of Holyhead is the second busiest in the UK. A Hard Border might tempt Northern Ireland truckers to use Liverpool or Cairnryan instead.

A really Hard Border means they have even less choice. Northern Ireland hauliers can expect a total of 60 permits, each one linked to an individual vehicle, for a 12-month period.

I can't see Anglesey listed anywhere as the poorest place in the UK. What is your reference for your claim?

prawnsambo

Christy42 wrote: »

Anyone else been getting forms mentioning insurance has changed companies due to Brexit?

I got it for some jewelry and some electronics. Apparently some stores use underwriters in the UK/Gibraltar when they offer you insurance for whatever your purchase is. So letters have come in saying it has been switched to somewhere in the EU away from the previous one with Brexit as the reason given as they are unsure of how these laws about insuring across different countries will work.

Presumably happening for people in the UK as well if an electronics store in England used a German underwriter they may have to switch out to a UK one.

Would love to know if there is enough of these for a serious effect (especially as the underwriters seem to specialise in this sort of insurance) and which way the cash is flowing here.

Pretty much every underwriter that is based in London has now opened an office in another EU state if they didn't already have one. And have shifted all their EU business there. Dublin has got a few and then pretty much all the financial centres around Europe.

Big names like AIG, Allianz, Chubb, Lloyds etc.

BonnieSituation

Christy42 wrote: »

Anyone else been getting forms mentioning insurance has changed companies due to Brexit?

I got it for some jewelry and some electronics. Apparently some stores use underwriters in the UK/Gibraltar when they offer you insurance for whatever your purchase is. So letters have come in saying it has been switched to somewhere in the EU away from the previous one with Brexit as the reason given as they are unsure of how these laws about insuring across different countries will work.

Presumably happening for people in the UK as well if an electronics store in England used a German underwriter they may have to switch out to a UK one.

Would love to know if there is enough of these for a serious effect (especially as the underwriters seem to specialise in this sort of insurance) and which way the cash is flowing here.

I work for a large British insurance company and we are changing a boatload of our domiciles.

Most of it is to officially take affect from Feb 1st.

Most people will start to get notifications soon enough from us or as they are being renewed.

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

The point about smuggling is a fair point but that's not all Spain are complaining about(they want Gibraltar) and in view of the disputed enclaves in Morocco(which I thought had been ceded!) is massive hypocrisy

Those cities have been part of Spain since 15th century. I suppose its a bit like the relationship that Northern Ireland has with GB, bearing in mind that the citizens of those cities are non-moslem and I'd imagine the citizens of those cities want to remain members of the EU, just as we have to accept that there is still a majority in Northern Ireland who want to remain part of the UK.

Christy42

Anyone else been getting forms mentioning insurance has changed companies due to Brexit?

I got it for some jewelry and some electronics. Apparently some stores use underwriters in the UK/Gibraltar when they offer you insurance for whatever your purchase is. So letters have come in saying it has been switched to somewhere in the EU away from the previous one with Brexit as the reason given as they are unsure of how these laws about insuring across different countries will work.

Presumably happening for people in the UK as well if an electronics store in England used a German underwriter they may have to switch out to a UK one.

Would love to know if there is enough of these for a serious effect (especially as the underwriters seem to specialise in this sort of insurance) and which way the cash is flowing here.

ThePanjandrum

Water John wrote: »

I hadn't realised it but it's more than ironic that Churchill, who all the Brexiteers worship, in 1952 was calling for a United States of Europe. Boris Johnson thinks he's stepping into his shoes.

Why do you assume that all Brexiters worship Churchill? They don't.

But Churchill didn't want the United Kingdom to be part of it

The first step is to form a Council of Europe.

If at first all the States of Europe are not willing or able to join the Union, we must nevertheless proceed to assemble and combine those who will and those who can.

The salvation of the common people of every race and of every land from war or servitude must be established on solid foundations and must be guarded by the readiness of all men and women to die rather than submit to tyranny.

In all this urgent work, France and Germany must take the lead together.

Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia - for then indeed all would be well - must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine.

http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/astonish.html

An Ciarraioch

J Mysterio wrote: »

Do you have any sources for this? My understanding is Churchill was extremely aggressive and antagonistic to Ireland.

Not to mention that he first devised the Black and Tans, when a Liberal.

Atlantic Dawn

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The port of Holyhead is the second busiest in the UK. A Hard Border might tempt Northern Ireland truckers to use Liverpool or Cairnryan instead.
.

Holyhead is not even in the top 10 by tonnage though, see page 5...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/762200/port-freight-statistics-2017.pdf

J Mysterio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He also longed for a United Ireland and preferred people in the South to people in the North.

Do you have any sources for this? My understanding is Churchill was extremely aggressive and antagonistic to Ireland.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

For what we get back in trade, investment and support I have no problem with us paying in.

The bleed of investment , jobs and businesses from the UK atm (and Brexit hasn't even happened yet) will show everybody else the dividend you get from being a member.

Strong rumours that £650 billion worth of assets were shifted to Ireland from London last year. It might explain the sudden and unexplained rise in corporate tax receipts. Presumably more to follow.

But some one post wonder comes on here with their brexit central propaganda and expects us to believe it?

FrancieBrady

eggman100 wrote: »

That's because you don't understand that staying in under the current 'deal' is not leaving at all, you seem to not understand the reasons why we voted to leave the corrupt EU. We also never voted for any kind of deal, we voted to leave the entire EU and this was all explained in Camerons pamphlet of doom about all the terrible things that would happen if we left the ECJ,customs union etc.
It was all BS of course as has been proven because none of these terrible things have happened that we were told would do, just for voting to leave. The

EU economy is going down the toilet, the UK doing well and record low unemployment - we were were told millions would loose jobs, complete BS again of course.

Ireland should follow us out if you don't want to pay for Greece bailout MK2 plus Italy and Spain. How about also governing yourselves instead of Ireland being like a county council of your masters in EU government?

For what we get back in trade, investment and support I have no problem with us paying in.

The bleed of investment , jobs and businesses from the UK atm (and Brexit hasn't even happened yet) will show everybody else the dividend you get from being a member.

eggman100

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Cameron and Osborne loved to sing from the EU-are-evil sheet. It was convenient as they could point towards the poor Greeks and blame the EU for UK's austerity and Osborne's nasty grab the cash and run policies (which May continue when she took over). That pair have a lot to answer for in turning folks against the EU and for creating the environment that led to Farage's whipped up dramas.

And now, no one seems to be talking straight or have the courage to admit to the UK public that any deal they manage to get will never match or be as good as the deal they have now.

That's because you don't understand that staying in under the current 'deal' is not leaving at all, you seem to not understand the reasons why we voted to leave the corrupt EU. We also never voted for any kind of deal, we voted to leave the entire EU and this was all explained in Camerons pamphlet of doom about all the terrible things that would happen if we left the ECJ,customs union etc.
It was all BS of course as has been proven because none of these terrible things have happened that we were told would do, just for voting to leave. The

EU economy is going down the toilet, the UK doing well and record low unemployment - we were were told millions would loose jobs, complete BS again of course.

Ireland should follow us out if you don't want to pay for Greece bailout MK2 plus Italy and Spain. How about also governing yourselves instead of Ireland being like a county council of your masters in EU government?

Capt'n Midnight

Dytalus wrote: »

Wales comes out way more per head than the rest of the UK. NI is second, and still gets more than the UK average in terms of funding per head.

Anglesey is the poorest place in the UK. This was the view there back in November. Since then the Nuclear plant has been cancelled so 9,000 construction jobs won't be happening.

The port of Holyhead is the second busiest [ferry port] in the UK. A Hard Border might tempt Northern Ireland truckers to use Liverpool or Cairnryan instead.

A really Hard Border means they have even less choice. Northern Ireland hauliers can expect a total of 60 permits, each one linked to an individual vehicle, for a 12-month period.

hill16bhoy

mickoneill31 wrote: »

I saw a post on Facebook today about Ireexit. It had 100% responses that were positive towards brexit. Stuff like, the Irish are waking up and they're not happy now that they have to pay.
I posted a reply saying most people in Ireland are positive towards the EU and linked to a recent poll.

I checked it back an hour later. My post is gone and I can't post anything else to the page. It's 100% Pro Brexit again. It's easy to keep people in a bubble in Facebook.

Censorship is the favourite tool of the self-proclaimed "pro-free speech" far right.

Just look at the way Gemma O'Doherty blocks everybody who disagrees with her on Twitter and Facebook.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Leave the soccer and the country name stuff at that please.

prawnsambo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Frankly, who cares? For one, I'm not sure the BBC requires a foreign base. For two, they obviously have not been doing a very good job on their European coverage to this point.

It's about licensing to broadcast into the EU afaik. A lot of UK broadcasters are doing this.

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

I hadn't realised it but it's more than ironic that Churchill, who all the Brexiteers worship, in 1952 was calling for a United States of Europe. Boris Johnson thinks he's stepping into his shoes.

He also longed for a United Ireland and preferred people in the South to people in the North.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

A number of txts into Newstalk this morning claiming we should leave with the UK. Apart from the nonsense idea that it is is terms of trade links etc, are they proposing that we start to take up seats in the HoC as otherwise we would have no say in the rules and regulations set for us in this union.

My answer is to compare NI to us economically or look at Scotland in Westminster.

Scotland has a higher population than we do. And their MP's are ignored. The Lib Dems used to be the third party, even in Govt with the Tories they had little to no influence. A reminder that before the last election each of the three main UK parties who've being controlling the Union since 1707 only got a single MP each in Scotland.

Hurrache wrote: »

So May says now during PM question time that the SNP is out of touch with the people of Scotland and therefore they shouldn't be trying to pull the union apart with suggestions of another indy ref, but rather coming together. The irony.

Strazdas

Hurrache wrote: »

The documentary from which that came starts next week on BBC 2.

Brexit was no "accident". Cameron was playing with fire for years by threatening to hold a referendum for years and merely using it as a tool or weapon to win concessions. At one point, he threatened the EU with a referendum and that he would campaign for Leave (!)

Water John

I hadn't realised it but it's more than ironic that Churchill, who all the Brexiteers worship, in 1952 was calling for a United States of Europe. Boris Johnson thinks he's stepping into his shoes.

Hurrache

Strazdas wrote: »

According to Donald Tusk, when Cameron went to the EU summit in early 2016 demanding concessions on freedom of movement, it was just a political stunt or PR job so he could 'bring something back' in order to justify holding the referendum. But Tusk gave him short shrift : he says he asked Cameron something like "Why should we start tearing the EU apart just to help you out with your stupid referendum?". He suggests that Cameron's face dropped when it suddenly began to dawn on him what an absolute mess he had created in calling the referendum.

The documentary from which that came starts next week on BBC 2.

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The BBC adds Brussels to its shortlist for a post-Brexit EU base, alongside Dublin and Amsterdam:

https://www.lalibre.be/culture/medias-tele/la-bbc-songe-a-s-installer-a-bruxelles-5c4844fc7b50a60724f18610

Frankly, who cares? For one, I'm not sure the BBC requires a foreign base. For two, they obviously have not been doing a very good job on their European coverage to this point.

Strazdas

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Cameron and Osborne loved to sing from the EU-are-evil sheet. It was convenient as they could point towards the poor Greeks and blame the EU for UK's austerity and Osborne's nasty grab the cash and run policies (which May continue when she took over). That pair have a lot to answer for in turning folks against the EU and for creating the environment that led to Farage's whipped up dramas.

And now, no one seems to be talking straight or have the courage to admit to the UK public that any deal they manage to get will never match or be as good as the deal they have now.

According to Donald Tusk, when Cameron went to the EU summit in early 2016 demanding concessions on freedom of movement, it was just a political stunt or PR job so he could 'bring something back' in order to justify holding the referendum. But Tusk gave him short shrift : he says he asked Cameron something like "Why should we start tearing the EU apart just to help you out with your stupid referendum?". He suggests that Cameron's face dropped when it suddenly began to dawn on him what an absolute mess he had created in calling the referendum.

First Up

correct horse battery staple wrote:

There might be one positive to Brexit, UK will be so busy with no deal fallout and claim they won't check goods, so that means EU producers can start cutting corners for goods destined for UK market, the savings of making substandard goods might be enough to balance out tarrifs, think of Toblerone as an example

I hope (for your sake) that this was just an attempt at humour.