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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

NI is already held separate from the rest of the UK. It has different laws as has been mentioned to you loads of times.

Actually, you've been asked before so hopefully now you will reply: what positives are there for NI leaving the EU?

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

Today’s news up north would suggest that the Eu is preparing to fudge the backstop

Maybe you should change your choice of news source! The EU has not caved on this issue.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Your one time posited neutrality is wearing a bit thin at this stage.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

Apologies if that was inflammatory. What I was trying to say but maybe could have put better is that I have believed this will all end in a fudge that won’t make a great deal of difference to anybody’s life. Today’s news up north would suggest that the Eu is preparing to fudge the backstop which I felt was always inevitable because it would’ve completely undemocratic going forward. Hope that’s more helpful.

Not really... what EU/Irish Government arrogance were you referring to?

BonnieSituation

The reactions if the last few days have shown exactly why we have been keeping our traps shut.

10000maniacs

downcow wrote: »

Apologies if that was inflammatory. What I was trying to say but maybe could have put better is that I have believed this will all end in a fudge that won’t make a great deal of difference to anybody’s life. Today’s news up north would suggest that the Eu is preparing to fudge the backstop which I felt was always inevitable because it would’ve completely undemocratic going forward. Hope that’s more helpful.

I don't see any reference to this in either the Telegraph or Post.

FrancieBrady

10000maniacs wrote: »

I don't see any reference to this in either the Telegraph or Post.

Indeed. Barnier has re-iterated strongly that a backstop with a time limit is useless.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Indeed. Barnier has re-iterated strongly that a backstop with a time limit is useless.

He's gone further and pretty much put the kibosh on any chance of an Article 50 extension. The obvious one of requiring something to extend for and the imponderable of what happens to the Euro elections. His view seems to be that there are legal issues that haven't been explored (implying that he doesn't want any UK MEPs cluttering up the works) and therefore any extension has to stop before then.

Havockk

prawnsambo wrote: »

He's gone further and pretty much put the kibosh on any chance of an Article 50 extension. The obvious one of requiring something to extend for and the imponderable of what happens to the Euro elections. His view seems to be that there are legal issues that haven't been explored (implying that he doesn't want any UK MEPs cluttering up the works) and therefore any extension has to stop before then.

That would force the UK to just flat out cancel the whole shebang.

prawnsambo

Havockk wrote: »

That would force the UK to just flat out cancel the whole shebang.

Cancel it or vote for May's deal. Which I think is May's cunning plan tbf.

CelticRambler

Seth Brundle wrote: »

downcow wrote: »

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

NI is already held separate from the rest of the UK. It has different laws as has been mentioned to you loads of times.

Actually, you've been asked before so hopefully now you will reply: what positives are there for NI leaving the EU?

To be fair to downcow, the "None" in his reply quoted above was a direct answer to my question asking more or less the same!

So at least that's that cleared up.

What I'd now like to know, from a self-confessed, on-the-fence-turned-Leaver such as downcow, is: what advantages do you get from being symbolically united with the UK in a no-deal Brexit that make a hard border with the RoI a price worth paying? I say "symbolically" because - as has been discussed many times already - there is already a socio-political and physical Irish Sea border separating NI from GB.

Sierra Oscar

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Please read the articles you are referencing sir, and maybe ideally don't ever reference a rag like the Indo but that is only a suggestion.

They aren't demanding any concessions. They are simply stating the obvious. This is a choreographed political move, and I would be shocked if it wasn't organised with the Irish cabinet (Coveney met Barnier a couple of days ago). There is no change of position here, nothing new.

It's merely time for Ireland to start lifting the lid on border preparations. That time would always come. Two months out is a perfectly reasonable time to start doing what must be done.

Have you actually watched any of the interviews by Government Ministers over the last 24 hours? Did you listen to Minister Creed on Morning Ireland? The EU Commission statement clearly came as a surprise to the Government. Doesn’t look to be a well choreographed move to me.

Nonetheless it’s positive to see Barnier signalling today that the backstop cannot be diluted.

First Up

The backstop only works if the UK stays inside the Customs Union or agrees to border procedures on goods crossing from Britain to NI. If it can't do either of those, then there will be checks on goods moving between NI and ROI, as well as on goods moving between ROI and Britain. None of that is new or a surprise.

How and where those checks take place has been the subject of a considerable amount of work and discussion within ROI and between ROI and the EU at both commercial and governmental levels. It has also been explored by traders and transport companies in Ireland, NI, Britain and the rest of the EU.

There is scope for some flexibility (or "fudge" if you prefer) on "local" goods crossing the border. The EU has considerable experience and can draw on a large body of practice in how sensitive borders operate elsewhere. A good example is Croatia, which has an external EU border with three countries it was one a part of and where local trading and social practices have continued without any real problem. Other examples include the Lithuanian border with Belarus, the Estonian and Latvian borders with Russia and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania. There is almost certainly a bit of "leakage" in all these cases but if it is localised and contained, it is tolerated.

There are more complicated issues; goods originating in or imported into Britain that are shipped to ROI for local consumption/use or shipped to ROI for onward shipment to mainland EU. The EU has been aware of all this from day One and has been looking at it from all angles. Shipping companies, port authorities, importers, retailers and a host of government and semi-government agencies have been designing solutions - and spotting potential loopholes. Technology, spot checks and probably a few other tricks will be deployed on this.

The EU's main concern is preventing attempts to exploit border sensitivities and use Ireland as a backdoor to or from the Single Market. This will almost certainly be monitored at Irish ports and it will be up to shippers to satisfy all requirements. In all of this, there has been 100% commitment to enabling Irish trade with the rest of the EU continue as fully and freely as it does now.

A Crash Out and a no Backstop situation would be a pain in the ass for many but you can rest assured that solutions will be put in place that both preserve the integrity of the Single Market and Ireland's participation therein.

Quin_Dub

Just as an aside , I assume that in the event of a "No Deal" Brexit , Gibraltar is also goosed as I have absolutely no doubt that the Spanish will be there with the gates and chains right as the clock strikes Brexit..

Leroy42

Services are far more important to Gibraltar I would have thought, and there doesn't seem to have been anything agreed about that AFAIK

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1088089818096193537

So to take back control they'll either ask the Polish to block an A50 extension or now just shut down parliament until Match 30th

robinph

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Just as an aside , I assume that in the event of a "No Deal" Brexit , Gibraltar is also goosed as I have absolutely no doubt that the Spanish will be there with the gates and chains right as the clock strikes Brexit..

But there is no requirement for Spain to keep the border open at the same time as keeping the border closed. There is also no problem with flying stuff in*, or by boat, from the rest of the UK as it's all the same country and no kind of in at the same time as kind of out scenario going on.

*Other than the flying over EU airspace bit.

RobMc59

Seth Brundle wrote: »

NI is already held separate from the rest of the UK. It has different laws as has been mentioned to you loads of times.

Actually, you've been asked before so hopefully now you will reply: what positives are there for NI leaving the EU?

Each of the four individual nations have their own laws-not just NI-if the people of NI are happy to remain in the UK that's their choice if some choose not to partake in voting etc then its their loss.If NI demands a UI vote that's fair enough but until that happens it has to be accepted people prefer to be part of the UK.

Quin_Dub

robinph wrote: »

But there is no requirement for Spain to keep the border open at the same time as keeping the border closed. There is also no problem with flying stuff in*, or by boat, from the rest of the UK as it's all the same country and no kind of in at the same time as kind of out scenario going on.

*Other than the flying over EU airspace bit.

But don't a huge number of people transit on and off the island every day for work etc.

Surely if the Spanish implement full border security (as I'm sure they will) won't that just make things fairly untenable day to day?

robinph

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1088089818096193537

So to take back control they'll either ask the Polish to block an A50 extension or now just shut down parliament until Match 30th

I guess that is a positive sign then if he is genuinely thinking along those lines then he believes he's lost.

They were showing a clip of him walking along the street outside Westminster during the 1 o'clock news today, although they didn't actually give him any air time. You could see various people walking the other way past him and as they realised who it was were shaking their heads and looking disgusted to be that close to him.

robinph

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But don't a huge number of people transit on and off the island every day for work etc.

Surely if the Spanish implement full border security (as I'm sure they will) won't that just make things fairly untenable day to day?

Yes, but it would just make it a regular border crossing between two countries. No other treaties or agreements are being broken by doing so. Very annoying for those concerned, but only the same kind of issues that will exist between Dover and Calais.

Still a disaster obviously, but those borders are well defined and understood regarding what it means to control them and how.

interlocked

Meanwhile, in the land of Unicorns.....

Jacob Rees Moggs had had a public address to the Bruges Group which contained

outright lies

think at last things are going our way. We have heard stories coming out of Ireland that they would like to have a bilateral agreement to keep the border open as the EU has toughened its line on the border between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland

and fantasy

Rees-Mogg says, in 1832, when the reform bill was being debated and parliament was deadlocked, it was thought at one point that the King might have to prorogue parliament in person. He says he hopes that is not necessary this time, and that the Queen’s stay at Sandringham is not interrupted.

He says if the Commons passes a no-deal bill, there are other mechanism available to the Commons. It could prorogue parliament, he says.

What's significant is that many thought that he would advocate reluctantly backing Mays deal for fear of a no brexit, either through revocation of Article 50 or losing a second referendum.

Instead he's doubled down on the backstop misdirection.

The biggest problem is the backstop, he says.

As long as that backstop is there, I will not vote for this deal.

He says the deal needs “fundamental change”.

But he claims things “at last are going our way

This is bad, bad news for May, the hard Brexiteers are hardening their stance despite her overt overtures to them during last Mondays speech about Plan "B", the basis of which was to hang on for dear life to Plan "A" and run down the clock.

She's run completely out of road now.

murphaph

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But don't a huge number of people transit on and off the island every day for work etc.

Surely if the Spanish implement full border security (as I'm sure they will) won't that just make things fairly untenable day to day?

Gibraltar is utterly dependent on services traded within the EU (lots of gambling and insurance stuff). A hard Brexit means curtains for most of that and the jobs it supports. Gib will return to being a poor outpost of the empire.

Hurrache

On the subject of Gibraltar, Spain is pushing for it's decolonisation in the event of no deal

Spain is demanding that the European Union recognises its demand for the “decolonisation” of Gibraltar in all coming EU legislation for a Brexit ‘no deal’, the Telegraph can reveal.

In a highly provocative move, Spanish officials have demanded the inclusion of a footnote in all the EU ‘no deal’ legislative proposals that explicitly recognises Spain’s continued dispute with Britain over the sovereignty of The Rock.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1088083723713691648

downcow

Seth Brundle wrote: »

NI is already held separate from the rest of the UK. It has different laws as has been mentioned to you loads of times.

Actually, you've been asked before so hopefully now you will reply: what positives are there for NI leaving the EU?

I have agreed that the four countries who make up the UK have many devolved laws etc which lead to variations. These are variations of each countries own making. I have said this s several times so I don’t know why you use this to equate with imposed rules which we have zero control over.

I have told you several times that I was neutral on leave /remain vote for the very reason I saw pros and cons and couldn’t see much difference in being in or out. Once our people voted out and our government decided they would uphold that wish then it was a no brainier to do it all together and not separate our nation for major economical as well as cultural reasons

I think I am answering these questions clearly and don’t understand why you want me to keep repeating.

Leroy42

But you don't see any pros to leave. That is the big issue. Want cons do you see for Remaining?

We know what will be lost, even in simple economic terms from leave for NI. An easy one is subsidies to farmers currently coming for the EU. Gone. There has also been a lot of investment from the EU in terms of peace dividend. That will be gone. Replaced by what? You think the London is going to increase subsidies to NI to make it up?

But as you acknowledged, each country within the union is able to operate separate laws that suit them in particular, but for some reason the DUP have decided that that shouldn't be the case here. Once the vote to leave was passed, there was no reason why the DUP couldn't have pushed for the softest of Brexits, thereby having little to no effect. Why have they pursued the current strategy, against the wishes of the majority in NI?

It really is an odd position you have. You think there are no benefits, understand the potential negatives but are happy to go along with the majority vote against the wishes of your own country on the basis of a feeling?

downcow

CelticRambler wrote: »

To be fair to downcow, the "None" in his reply quoted above was a direct answer to my question asking more or less the same! So at least that's that cleared up.

What I'd now like to know, from a self-confessed, on-the-fence-turned-Leaver such as downcow, is: what advantages do you get from being symbolically united with the UK in a no-deal Brexit that make a hard border with the RoI a price worth paying? I say "symbolically" because - as has been discussed many times already - there is already a socio-political and physical Irish Sea border separating NI from GB.

Hard question to answer because I don’t believe there is a chance of a hard border. Help me with something! Do you believe there will be a hard border in the Irish Sea with the backstop? This is crucial because so many people talk about the Irish Sea option as some soft fluffy thing that won’t annoy anyone but if it happens at Newry it will be a Berlin Wall. I honestly don’t understand this at it’s the bit if feel suspicious about. If the two are the same then you just have to accept that a majority in Northern Ireland would rather have it at Newry that larne and that both economic and cultural. I am really interested in you answer to this.

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

Help me with something!

Why should we? You've been asked over and over as to what you see as the pro's and benefits of Brexit, as someone who claimed to be once a neutral, without answer.

downcow wrote: »

you just have to accept that a majority in Northern Ireland would rather have it at Newry that larne and that both economic and cultural. I am really interested in you answer to this.

Don't the figures say that the majority in Northern Ireland don't want it at all?

robinph

A border in the middle of the sea is harder to throw things at in protest.

Build a physical wall down the middle of a road and it will be attacked, blown up, shot at, stuff smuggled around it etc.

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

Hard question to answer because I don’t believe there is a chance of a hard border. Help me with something! Do you believe there will be a hard border in the Irish Sea with the backstop? This is crucial because so many people talk about the Irish Sea option as some soft fluffy thing that won’t annoy anyone but if it happens at Newry it will be a Berlin Wall. I honestly don’t understand this at it’s the bit if feel suspicious about. If the two are the same then you just have to accept that a majority in Northern Ireland would rather have it at Newry that larne and that both economic and cultural. I am really interested in you answer to this.

Do you have a link to any polling that shows a preference in NI for a land border versus a sea border?