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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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joeysoap

How is sterling stronger?

FreudianSlippers

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

What do we care if other EU nationals use Ireland to travel to UK? thats a problem for UK, if they put back physical border infrastructure then we all know where that will endup

That's exactly what I said.

Akrasia

joeysoap wrote: »

How is sterling stronger?

Immediately before the referendum, sterling was trading against Euros at 1 : 1.26
As of this week, it's 1 : 1.13

Before the referendum campaign began, it was 1 : 1:43

It's stronger because it's weaker. A weak gbp is great for UK exports (according to the brexiteers)

lawred2

How is that backtracking?

They are doing all they can - doesn't mean that they will be able to avoid a hard border

Hurrache

Poland's favourite Tory MP has said they won't back down on the backstop as it will lead to a reunification vote of Ireland. He's as mad as a hatter, and everything he says is being torn apart on Sky News.

Hurrache

funkey_monkey wrote: »

EU backtracking?

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1088040772484694017

lawred2 wrote: »

How is that backtracking?

They are doing all they can - doesn't mean that they will be able to avoid a hard border

I think he means a backtrack on what has been said yesterday?

Infini

Realistically at the moment the border for all practical purposes is a non issue until we know for certain the UK is going to recklessly crash out in a blaze of idiocy and ignorant stupidity. At that point it's likely that TEMPORARY customs controls at that border will have to be implemented while the UK basically implodes on itself. It's simply a practical issue right now. That being said event's will likely move swiftly in the event of a certain Hard Brexit as it will be an unprecedented event which will likely have the UK in a heap by the end of the year. Realistically if they think the WA was bad wait till after Brexit when there could be a treaty with far less favorable conditions than what they have as their actions will have caused damage all round and they'll be on the hook for it.

At that point a number of things could happen but one of them could be a border poll. Even if the current government will deny it it will likely collapse shortly after Brexit as people will be out for blood at that point. It's likely given all polling data that in the event of a hard brexit this is going to backfire spectacularly on the DUP as people will be suffering and the one way out for them is reunification. Not everyone will agree its an unfortunate fact but seeing upwards of a 70% in favor of a UI up there would make in inevitable really. Some might think we would be wrong to demand a border poll but if there's upwards of 70% support for a UI at that point and things are that messy with the UK it would be the most sensible thing because it would not be "annexing" NI but rather giving NI as a whole the choice on what they want to do.

That being said the last thing the EU want's to be doing right now is trying to throw Ireland under the bus for the malicious and reckless actions of a broken UK. If anything if they're concerned about the border they would likely need to try and help out especially knowing how bad things could get along it. They should also be prepared to put serious diplomatic pressure on the UK to come to a realistic solution at the same time as ultimately they're the instigators of this whole debacle not Ireland.

I would take any media report with a good load of salt right now the simple truth is noone will truly know what will happen come March 29th, everyone can plan for these things but all the plans made cant account for the actual RL situation on the ground once it actually happens.

spacecoyote

joeysoap wrote: »

How is sterling stronger?

I could be wrong, but thought I saw a headline that they are crediting the bump to the fact that Labour have said that they are likely to back the blockage of a no-deal brexit

10000maniacs

joeysoap wrote: »

How is sterling stronger?

Over the last few days it has gained ground on speculation that Article 50 will be extended.

An Ciarraioch

In a no-deal scenario, it would be essentially an existential and philosophical dilemma, as much as a political one to be faced - a land border may be unpalatable, but still the lesser of two evils, faced with the implications ensuing from the alternative in the Celtic Sea. Still, in the first scenario, much of the Anglo-Irish trade could be checked in ports and airports, making the cross-Border commerce the sole issue requiring physical land inspections.

downcow

downcow wrote: »

That said I believe common sense will prevail at or after the 11th hour. The backstop will be watered down (or fudged) and we will all move on and build improving relationships in the years ahead. I don'r expect either poverty or the jackpot for UK or EU for that matter. I do also think ROI are in the shakiest position but trust that EU & UK will play ball and make it work in the end.
it

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

What did you tell us, what arrogance?

A temporary safeguard to avoid erecting a physical border between Ireland and Northern Ireland after Brexit would serve no purpose, the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said.

In an interview to newspapers Le Monde, Rzeczpospolita and Luxemburger Wort, Mr Barnier said the current backstop proposal over the border was the only option on the table.

"The question of limiting the backstop in time has already been discussed twice by European leaders. This is the only possible option because an insurance is of no use if it is time limited," Mr Barnier said.

FreudianSlippers

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Barnier has literally just said they won't agree to a time-limited backstop (https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0123/1024915-brexit/)... so what do you think is "now beginning"?

I'm not at all sure what "the roi" has to do with this? Something to do with UK countries not being in Euro 2020?

CelticRambler

Bob24 wrote: »

There will be public backlash and opposition parties will certainly use that backlash to side with the public and gain from it politically.

Public backlash? Do you mean the public that voted overwhelmingly to drop Ireland's constitutional territorial claim over the Six Counties, or the public that is overwhelmingly in favour of Ireland's continued membership of the EU?

For all our criticism of the DUP's obsession with Westminster, and the average English Joe Soap's ignorance of what goes on in Ireland, the vast majority of 21st Century Irishmen and women really don't give more than a second's thought to what goes on "up North" either - unless they're planning a trip to the Titanic exhibition, going on a stag night, or happen to have relatives who live along the border.

Politically, the Republican parties in the North must be rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of any kind of barrier going up that is hard-enough to remind ordinary people that they are no longer part of the developed world when they cross into NI, and to inflict as much damage as possible to the NI economy. Both will hasten a vote on the reunification of Ireland.

The governments of Dublin and Westminster will be aware of this. For all the ERG's bluster, whoever is sitting in No.11 Downing Street will do the sums and see that there's no way the UK can afford to re-establish and permanently patrol a border between NI and the RoI when there's so much more of the UK's economy that needs propping up. Ireland's Minister for Finance won't be too keen, either, to take on the cost of reintegrating NI into a RoI that's still weathering the effects of the Brexit storm. So both governments will have an incentive to do something to (a) keep costs down; and (b) avoid precipitating a reunification referendum. An Irish Sea border addresses both of those points, and it will undoubtedly be one of the first items on the agenda in the event of a No Deal Brexit - especially if a general election returns a DUP-free government to Westminster.

MrMusician18

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

No compromise can be reached when the UK is not willing to compromise.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^

You told us what? All of these variations on the border theme were dicussed in version 1 of this thread!

But if you're in the mood for telling us things, how about answering some of the many questions that you've avoided so far, e.g.:
as a born-again Leaver, what specific (identifiable, quantifiable, fact-based) advantages do you see for Northern Ireland arising from a No-Deal Brexit?

ancapailldorcha

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Mod: Cease the inflammatory posting please.

Russman

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Not quite sure where you get the "arrogance" bit from tbh ? Arrogant to want to protect the GFA ? to protect the CU & SM of which both are continuing to be members of ?
For sure Ireland will suffer in a crash out, but not nearly as much as the UK and particularly NI. Nobody really wants that at all so why can't the UK, when its bringing in new legislation (i.e. Brexit) respect its existing commitments under the GFA and/or make sure that the new rules its bringing in are compliant with its obligations under treaty ?

Infini

downcow wrote: »

Don’t like say I told you so. But I reckon this is now beginning ^
I think the roi / Eu arrogance is finally changing towards some reality of the interdependence

Arrogance would be far from the term I would use for Ireland and the EU the Brexiteers have a monopoly on that. This is a mess of the UKs making plain and simple, noone but the UK wanted this. On top of that all attempts have been to keep the most practical solution possible and the WA was just the first step yet Westminster cant pass it because of ideology and dysfunctional politics up to this point.

Lets be clear the status quo was fine because it gave everyone the best of both worlds. Brexit is forcing choices to be made far sooner than they'd like to be expecially in the likes of a UI for example.

Strazdas

funkey_monkey wrote: »

EU backtracking?

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1088040772484694017

By "backtracking", he means backtracking on the statement yesterday that there will be a hard border in Ireland. There may be a feeling that the statement went too far and left Ireland hanging out to dry and without any advance warning it was coming.

downcow

CelticRambler wrote: »

You told us what? All of these variations on the border theme were dicussed in version 1 of this thread!

But if you're in the mood for telling us things, how about answering some of the many questions that you've avoided so far, e.g.:
as a born-again Leaver, what specific (identifiable, quantifiable, fact-based) advantages do you see for Northern Ireland arising from a No-Deal Brexit?

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

Professor Moriarty

In the event of a hard border with tariffs and regulatory checks, NI will become an economic and societal basket case. Anyone who doesn't understand this doesn't know what they are talking about.

LeinsterDub

MrMusician18 wrote: »

No compromise can be reached when the UK is not willing to compromise.

No compromise can be reached when the UK doesn't have a position formed from which is compromise is more accurate in my opinion

Hurrache

So Panasonic, P&O, Dyson, and now today Sony have announced they're moving their headquarters out of the UK. I'm sure I've missed others.

Zubeneschamali

10000maniacs wrote: »

Over the last few days it has gained ground on speculation that Article 50 will be extended.

If withdrawing A50 gets any momentum, expect to see Sterling strengthen significantly.

The more likely No Deal looks, the weaker it'll get.

LeinsterDub

downcow wrote: »

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

Expect when being separated from the UK suits you of course?

downcow

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: Cease the inflammatory posting please.

Apologies if that was inflammatory. What I was trying to say but maybe could have put better is that I have believed this will all end in a fudge that won’t make a great deal of difference to anybody’s life. Today’s news up north would suggest that the Eu is preparing to fudge the backstop which I felt was always inevitable because it would’ve completely undemocratic going forward. Hope that’s more helpful.

Sam Russell

The bigest problem with the No-deal crash out is the fact that NI leaves the EU VAT system. It opens up a VAT carosel where goods are moved solely with a view to claiming VAT refunds illegally.

That is much more of a problem with the border than tariffs.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

I told you. None. But it is important we don’t get the negatives of being separated from UK

So the UK are putting your, and everyone in NI, futures at risk for no benefit to you at all. So NI takes the bulk of the risk for which there is no upside.

NI voted to remain, but you are happy enough for the rest of the UK to put you at risk when you good get what you want, staying in the UK, without any risks if the DUP had pushed for as soft a Brexit as possible.

Yet it is the EU and Ireland that you feel need to compromise to avoid the potential problems that your own government have created?

Seth Brundle

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In a no-deal scenario, it would be essentially an existential and philosophical dilemma, as much as a political one to be faced - a land border may be unpalatable, but still the lesser of two evils, faced with the implications ensuing from the alternative in the Celtic Sea. Still, in the first scenario, much of the Anglo-Irish trade could be checked in ports and airports, making the cross-Border commerce the sole issue requiring physical land inspections.

In terms of a border, the Irish Sea border is the lesser of two evils given that it partly exists already. The land border is a huge upset to all of Ireland.