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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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spacecoyote

joeysoap wrote: »

How is sterling stronger?

I could be wrong, but thought I saw a headline that they are crediting the bump to the fact that Labour have said that they are likely to back the blockage of a no-deal brexit

Infini

Realistically at the moment the border for all practical purposes is a non issue until we know for certain the UK is going to recklessly crash out in a blaze of idiocy and ignorant stupidity. At that point it's likely that TEMPORARY customs controls at that border will have to be implemented while the UK basically implodes on itself. It's simply a practical issue right now. That being said event's will likely move swiftly in the event of a certain Hard Brexit as it will be an unprecedented event which will likely have the UK in a heap by the end of the year. Realistically if they think the WA was bad wait till after Brexit when there could be a treaty with far less favorable conditions than what they have as their actions will have caused damage all round and they'll be on the hook for it.

At that point a number of things could happen but one of them could be a border poll. Even if the current government will deny it it will likely collapse shortly after Brexit as people will be out for blood at that point. It's likely given all polling data that in the event of a hard brexit this is going to backfire spectacularly on the DUP as people will be suffering and the one way out for them is reunification. Not everyone will agree its an unfortunate fact but seeing upwards of a 70% in favor of a UI up there would make in inevitable really. Some might think we would be wrong to demand a border poll but if there's upwards of 70% support for a UI at that point and things are that messy with the UK it would be the most sensible thing because it would not be "annexing" NI but rather giving NI as a whole the choice on what they want to do.

That being said the last thing the EU want's to be doing right now is trying to throw Ireland under the bus for the malicious and reckless actions of a broken UK. If anything if they're concerned about the border they would likely need to try and help out especially knowing how bad things could get along it. They should also be prepared to put serious diplomatic pressure on the UK to come to a realistic solution at the same time as ultimately they're the instigators of this whole debacle not Ireland.

I would take any media report with a good load of salt right now the simple truth is noone will truly know what will happen come March 29th, everyone can plan for these things but all the plans made cant account for the actual RL situation on the ground once it actually happens.

Hurrache

funkey_monkey wrote: »

EU backtracking?

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1088040772484694017

lawred2 wrote: »

How is that backtracking?

They are doing all they can - doesn't mean that they will be able to avoid a hard border

I think he means a backtrack on what has been said yesterday?

Hurrache

Poland's favourite Tory MP has said they won't back down on the backstop as it will lead to a reunification vote of Ireland. He's as mad as a hatter, and everything he says is being torn apart on Sky News.

lawred2

How is that backtracking?

They are doing all they can - doesn't mean that they will be able to avoid a hard border

Akrasia

joeysoap wrote: »

How is sterling stronger?

Immediately before the referendum, sterling was trading against Euros at 1 : 1.26
As of this week, it's 1 : 1.13

Before the referendum campaign began, it was 1 : 1:43

It's stronger because it's weaker. A weak gbp is great for UK exports (according to the brexiteers)

FreudianSlippers

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

What do we care if other EU nationals use Ireland to travel to UK? thats a problem for UK, if they put back physical border infrastructure then we all know where that will endup

That's exactly what I said.

joeysoap

How is sterling stronger?

Akrasia

Bob24 wrote: »

Having said that the issue would be that if we even want to join Schengen this would be a clear show stopper.

The GFA means we never really had a choice about schengen as long as the UK were opted out.

Ireland, unlike the UK, actually respects our obligations under international treaties.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

So May says now during PM question time that the SNP is out of touch with the people of Scotland and therefore they shouldn't be trying to pull the union apart with suggestions of another indy ref, but rather coming together. The irony.

That's not just ironic - that's downright offensive.

EdgeCase

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

We could potentially see people arriving in UK lets say from India to study, then once their visa expires traveling to Ireland and working in black economy here (probably already happens) but that doesnt get them any closer to being able to travel to mainland Europe due to Schengen checks.

I dont see this as an issue, as we as a country can choose to ignore this form of migration if it keeps the North from troubles and having to install a really hard border.

That situation already exists as Ireland and Britain have a free-travel area without a common visa system and neither issue Schengen Visas.

It's very likely that EU citizens and UK entering continental European countries will continue to do so, visa-free for up to 90 days, much like Canadians, Americans, Australians and so on have always done and the Irish-UK CTA arrangement will continue as is for movement of people and residency rights in both directions.

If the UK were to go without visa waivers, you'd be in a situation where UK-European relations would be more like UK-China relations, which is both unlikely and a ludicrous prospect.

Control of rights to work and so on are regulated using other systems i.e. you'd be unable to apply for a UK National Insurance number, or an Irish PPS number unless you'd rights to live in the jurisdiction you were applying to. So, would be unable to gain normal employment. In Ireland, PPSN is already used for things like renting, opening bank accounts and so on, so it's quite difficult to function here without being registered. In some ways, we're more regulated than the UK is on some of those things, without going down the route of a xenophobic 'hostile environment'.

A lot of these things are already the case. For example, if you're from China or India, you could hold an Irish or UK visa, there's an open border, but you don't have the right to cross it unannounced and you certainly don't have the right to live/work in the opposite jurisdiction with the wrong visa and work permit.

This stuff has all worked fine and has been a total non issue for many years.

kalych

Bob24 wrote: »

There will be public backlash and opposition parties will certainly use that backlash to side with the public and gain from it politically. Our fragile governance deal between FG and FF might even fall apart. This is what I am calling political paralysis, the governement might not be able to get support from the public and eventually from the Dail for whatever it has prepared for.

I do see some reason in this point. I likewise would have preferred if our government refrained from definitively ruling out the hard border in case of No-deal Brexit. This issue should be sidestepped more masterfully, provided it's obvious the border will have to go up.

We already have Joe Duffy callers blaming FFG for all the sins under the sun. It's best we didn't give them any more ammunition.

Seth Brundle

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

What do we care if other EU nationals use Ireland to travel to UK? thats a problem for UK, if they put back physical border infrastructure then we all know where that will endup

In time, the UK will too require a physical border if they have no agreement with the EU. If the UK wants to create a trade deal with a non-EU country, then they need to protect their borders. It's complete bull for them to suggest otherwise.
Why would a country arrange a trade deal with the UK whilst products are openly entering the UK from the EU with no duties or whatever.

[Deleted User]

boggerman1 wrote: »

Car crash interview by Michael creed on morning Ireland.still troting out the line that we don't want a hard border.everyone knows that there was going to have to be borders reintroduced once Britain decided to walk.if the EU border is now going to be Calais sure we in the south are going to be in the EU but outside the EU border or am I wrong.agriculture will be f**ked so

More details on Creed's interview here. It's embarrassing tbh.

https://www.thejournal.ie/morning-ireland-creed-4454433-Jan2019/

LeinsterDub

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But the Border is a long term issue, not something that will blow up overnight.

I don't know we all seen what happened in Derry on the weekend. A bomb on the border on the 30th is a very real possibility

FreudianSlippers

TM refusing to answer whether her Government will rule out customs union at PMQ. She did throw the question back at Corbyn beautifully though. :pac:

Zubeneschamali

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Don't see how the UK can manage that without a hard border unless they just don't care about NI and will check passports going into GB (which I doubt the DUP are cool with).

They have always said from Day 1 that they were not going to control illegal immigration at border checkpoints, in Ireland or at the channel ports. They will try to control it by making landlords, employers and benefit offices demand "papers please" from everyone, and illegals won't have papers.

Hurrache

So May says now during PM question time that the SNP is out of touch with the people of Scotland and therefore they shouldn't be trying to pull the union apart with suggestions of another indy ref, but rather coming together. The irony.

Zubeneschamali

Bob24 wrote: »

if the no-deal scenario materialises we will have a serious institutional crisis and complete government paralysis at a critical time for the country.

We will indeed have a crisis, supply chains via the UK will be broken suddenly, there will be lots of chaos. Sterling and stock markets will do mad things, flights will be in a heap, it'll be mayhem.

But the Border is a long term issue, not something that will blow up overnight.

Zubeneschamali

Bob24 wrote: »

Two things:
1) we agree about unicorns, but not about the no-deal scenario: it might not be the most likely but it is far from impossible

Oh, I think it is quite likely to happen, they could quite easily blunder into if things go a little awry in Westminster.

They just can't stay in No Deal land for long enough for us to put up more than one or two portakabins at the border. If it lasted 3 months, First Citizen Corbyn and Keir Starmer will be appealing for a deal, or at least food aid.

Absolutely, chaps, no problem. But first, about that border...

FreudianSlippers

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Lets be realistic here purpose of most physical hard borders is to control movement of people AND goods, we dont care for movement of people as that will continue, so the purpose of a border will be to ensure integrity of Irish and Single markets

Ireland will not put up physical border infrastructure as we don't have to check if people are allowed to cross (they still can and will), what we do have to check are goods being transported inwards.

You're partially correct from the Irish perspective (and partially incorrect, but I'll deal with that below). However it definitely doesn't work the other way around, as many EU nationals here will not be part of CTA rules. Don't see how the UK can manage that without a hard border unless they just don't care about NI and will check passports going into GB (which I doubt the DUP are cool with).

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

We are not part of Schengen and UK citizens can live/work/travel here (And vice versa) without checks due to earlier treaty.

edit: lets hypothetically assume that a boat of immigrants somehow arrives in Northern Ireland, these guys then travel onto Ireland, how do they proceed onto rest of Europe (Schengen) as there are checks at all ports/airports. Thankfully due to our location and non membership of Schengen external (to EU) migration thru Ireland is not an option

Technically, the Schengen rules apply to all external borders of the EU pursuant to the Treaty of Amsterdam, regardless of Ireland/UK not being in the Schengen area. I don't, however, think the EU would place too much onus on Ireland to actually implement this with the UK given the unique history on this island.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please refrain from resorting to insults and posting one-line posts.

Bob24

Leroy42 wrote: »

How can we simply opt out of tracking people though? Surely the EU will wnat to know if Non Eu nationals are coming in to the EU? FOM only starts within the EU?

I guess when it comes to movement of people it is more Schengen which is relevant and we are not part of it (if someone illegally enters ireland it doesn’t mean they can easily bypass Schengen border checks as when they try to fly from Dublin to Madrid they will face Schengen border checks there, so we wouldn’t break the schengen area by not having border checks).

It is more of an Irish issue: do we want to let people who are potentially legal in the Uk but illegal in the republic freely cross the border with no checks. The status quo is that we accept this problem in the CTA and aren’t trying to address it with a border: for exemple currently a non-EU person could have a legal UK residence card and live in Belfast, but have no documents allowing them to enter the republic. Yet if they drive from Belfast to Dublin they will face no border check to verify their documents.

Having said that the issue would be that if we even want to join Schengen this would be a clear show stopper.

Leroy42

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Lets be realistic here purpose of most physical hard borders is to control movement of people AND goods, we dont care for movement of people as that will continue, so the purpose of a border will be to ensure integrity of Irish and Single markets

How can we simply opt out of tracking people though? Surely the EU will wnat to know if Non Eu nationals are coming in to the EU? FOM only starts within the EU?

Bob24

listermint wrote: »

Are you saying they shouldnt have planned for it ?

And also in the same breath saying they should have played into the british hands by saying they would put one up ?

Im confused by your standpoint and your understanding of the negotiations.

Pretty clear from the start: I’m saying the government should stop saying no border will ever be accepted. Said it several times and never mentioned we shouldn’t prepare for it.

FreudianSlippers

Hurrache wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Doozy_45/status/1087746504033558529

Thanks. That's very different than what's being reported about the EU seeking concessions from Ireland to construct a hard border.

Hurrache

Bambi wrote: »

You wonder if the UK is willing to accept the loss of goodwill that a no brexit hard border will create

You also wonder to what degree the EU would be willing to manifest that lack of good will, i.e trade embargoes.

I don't think there's any more goodwill to lose, not from the EU anyway at this stage.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

I would be shocked if everyone in the Republic didn't envisage that there would Border Controls South bound in the event of No Deal Brexit from the EU side of things.

Dyr

You wonder if the UK is willing to accept the loss of goodwill that a no brexit hard border will create

You also wonder to what degree the EU would be willing to manifest that lack of good will, i.e trade embargoes.

robinph

Bob24 wrote: »

Backlash against the establishment of a border in general and the fact that the public will have heard from our politicians that the government will never accept the instatemnt of a border - and would then be saying that it is accepting it and has indeed being planning for it. Easy then for political opponents to call Varadkar an incompetent and a liar.

The amount of nonsense that the UK media have managed to land the blame for incorrectly at the feet of the EU over the years it really shouldn't be much of a hard sell for Ireland to direct the blame for the border where it really belongs in this case.