Bob24 wrote: » Backlash against the establishment of a border in general and the fact that the public will have heard from our politicians that the government will never accept the instatemnt of a border - and would then be saying that it is accepting it and has indeed being planning for it.
Bob24 wrote: » This is close to my point though. I also have no doubt that being closed doors preparations for worst cases scenario are happening. But when I mention institutional and political paralysis I am referring to your point of not preparing the population. Let’s say a time comes whereby we have to start border checks and the government comes out to say “we have to do this because of our EU commitments and actually we have done our due diligence in the past, we are 100% ready”. There will be public backlash and opposition parties will certainly use that backlash to side with the public and gain from it politically. Our fragile governance deal between FG and FF might even fall apart. This is what I am calling political paralysis, the governement might not be able to get support from the public and eventually from the Dail for whatever it has prepared for.
Leroy42 wrote: » On Brexit D1, nothing really changes as the UK have not changed any regulations. What will change is how the UK is treated at the EU borders already in place but I think will we will be given a certain amount of time to move on the border, time during which I fully expect the saner people in the HoC to finally get No deal back off the table.
Seth Brundle wrote: » Backlash towards whom? We are being forced into setting up a hard border (assuming it's a hard Brexit). We (ireland and the EU) have no control over this. Why do you choose to not understand this simple concept? As for political paralysis - Leo and Simon are keeping all other parties in the loop about this. None of them like this possibility but I'll wager that the other parties won't make political capital out of it as it would easily backfire on them.
correct horse battery staple wrote: » Somewhat agree however the British have involved us against our will in Brexit and now even proposing we pull out of the EU and leave with them
FreudianSlippers wrote: » Is there any source that anyone can find to the actual statement made by Margaritis Schinas or is it just as reported by the media? I'd be interested to see the context.
Bob24 wrote: » Let’s say at times comes whereby we have to start border checks and the government comes out to say “we have to do this and have done our due diligence is the part, we are 100% ready”. There will be public backlash and opposition parties will certainly use that backlash to side with the public and gain from it politically. Our fragile governance deal between FG and FF might even fall apart. This is what I am calling political paralysis, the governement might not be able to get support from the public and eventually from the Dail for whatever it has prepared for.
FreudianSlippers wrote: » Ireland is more likely to be capable of running a technological border for UK goods entering the EU (given these goods will also be entering other EU Member States) but there is no way the UK could run the border in a no-deal scenario without a hard border. That wouldn't be the Irish government implementing it technically.
Leroy42 wrote: » Well I don't agree with that. I do think that we are preparing, my issue is that it is focused solely on the government and agencies and not on the population as a whole.
Bob24 wrote: » Why do we have government members saying something like “We are not going to be putting up border infrastructure” then, and pretending there is no chance of it happening? Nowadays you have people firing at Theresa May for potentially going back on her promise not to reinstate a border. If you are correct, it means our governement is jumping on the same boat as her in terms making very important promises it knows doesn’t have full control over, which could come back to bite us.
Bob24 wrote: » 100% behind this. The real is that with the message the government is currently sending about no accepting a border no matter what, if the no-deal scenario materialises we will have a serious institutional crisis and complete government paralysis at a critical time for the country.
Leroy42 wrote: » I agree with Bob24 in that Ireland has very much be signaling that there will not be a border no matter what. Whether they actually said that when you dissect the statements is not the point. They have allowed the message, and I am prepared to accept that it was done for diplomatic reasons, that nothing will change in respect of NI and Ireland will almost be unaffected by Brexit, in whatever guise. Much like the problem TM has in selling her deal after telling everyone for 2 years that No Deal is better than a Bad Del, Leo is now going to face a backlash from many people who simply accepted the overall view of the government that nothing would change. For most on here, it is not a surprise, but you would be surprised at how many in Ireland have not given this any real consideration. Much like many in the UK. It will be a shock when the border starts going up and many people will rightly ask why Leo didn't stop it and if Leo promised no border then it must be the EU making us to do. Should they have handled it differently, well I don't know. One thing that is certain in this whole Brexit mess is that is hard to fully plan for the outcome of any particular action. Had they talked about the hard border earlier, would many in Ireland have been calling for Ireland to give concessions earlier. But at this point I do think that Leo should come out with a full statement to the Dail and the Irish people detailing out exactly was is coming under a crash out scenario.
poppers wrote: » What deal have the EU and Spain done with GB to sort out the Gibraltar border??
Akrasia wrote: » If you ask a general if they have plans for an invasion of their closest rival, they'll always say no. Doesn't mean they don't have a contingency plan just in case something unthinkable happens. It's their job. Not part of no deal plans, as i said, is politician speak for "It's not something we want to happen, but we will do it if we have no other choice" It's like asking a government minister if they want to be Taoiseach. They'll always answer, "I fully support the current Taoiseach, I have no plans for what happens later" when you and I both know that they'd stick the knife in the minute they think they have a chance of winning. Not having plans to do something is not the same as saying something won't happen. (and they definitely do have plans for border infrastructure, they're just keeping them quiet to avoid stoking tensions on the border)
Sierra Oscar wrote: » The EU Commission publicly declaring unequivocally that Ireland must impose a hard border or face exclusion from the Customs Union in the event of a no-deal is huge news. It's effectively the EU Commission putting a gun to the Irish Government's head and demanding that we make concessions on the backstop.EU now looks set to ask Ireland to accept concessions
prawnsambo wrote: » Didn't expect him to blink first. But then I suppose, he's in the brexit at any cost camp and the nightmare scenario of the HoC voting to revoke the A50 notice is what's behind this.
Leroy42 wrote: » Much like the problem TM has in selling her deal after telling everyone for 2 years that No Deal is better than a Bad Del, Leo is now going to face a backlash from many people who simply accepted the overall view of the government that nothing would change.
Bob24 wrote: » Coveney said pretty clearly that instating a border is not part of our no-deal plans: “The Irish government will not support the re-emergence of border infrastructure on this island. We're not planning for it in no-deal Brexit planning”.
Zubeneschamali wrote: » They also have no plans to allow UK flying Unicorns to land at Dublin airport.Since No Deal and flying unicorns are both impossible in reality, we should not get too excited about reports from Brexitland about them.
LuckyLloyd wrote: » Please read the articles you are referencing sir, and maybe ideally don't ever reference a rag like the Indo but that is only a suggestion. They aren't demanding any concessions. They are simply stating the obvious. This is a choreographed political move, and I would be shocked if it wasn't organised with the Irish cabinet (Coveney met Barnier a couple of days ago). There is no change of position here, nothing new. It's merely time for Ireland to start lifting the lid on border preparations. That time would also come. Two months out is a perfectly reasonable time frame.
Folkstonian wrote: » An utterly fascinating development. Their joint announcement today signalling astutely more military and political cooperation between France and geemany was delicately timed to send a message Was it to say to on the fence voters in the case of a second referendum, don’t bother trying to stay inside the EU if you hope to keep our military, social and political integration projects at arms length? That there is more substance to the ‘scare stories’ about sovereignty and a European Armed Forces than many remain campaigners (looking your way right now Mr Clegg) would ever care to admit. I really don’t know. But I don’t think it will help convince anyone in England that a second vote to stay means a return to the status quo.Out of interest, I know the majority here are obviously very pro-EU, but how do you feel about the talk from Verhofstadt, Macron and Merkel today about a unified European military able to defend the continents from Putin’s armoured divisions? Is it a good thing, a concern, or a step too far, or at least too soon?
Zubeneschamali wrote: » negotiating a Free Trade deal and they need to negotiate about 70 of them.
