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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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RobMc59

Peregrinus wrote: »

What the polls show is:

(a) if there were a second referendum, most people would vote to Remain; but

(b) most people don't want a second referendum.

Confused? Me too.

The thing last time, as I understand it, was that the polls correctly reflected how people would vote, but the polling companies failed to correctly predict who would vote. Which is to say, the polls were correct about how voters of various ages, gender, socioeconomic class, etc would break down between Leave and Remain, but what was not forseen was the very high turnout, with groups that normally vote in low numbers turning out in high numbers.

Presumably they're trying hard to get this right now. But whether they succeed or not, we won't know unless there is actually a second referendum.

The last you gov survey I completed asked some quite in depth questions about Brexit- testing your understanding of things like "what does a no deal brexit mean?"-scary that there are UK citizens that don't understand the implications of a hard brexit,or indeed,any type of brexit imo.

judeboy101

Peregrinus wrote: »

Has HMG (as opposed to this or that loopy Brexiter) actually said this? SFAIK they have not but I'm open to correction. (But if you are correcting me, a link to a source for HMG saying this would be appreciated.)

IrlGov's position has been that they don't intend to erect border controls because they expect the UK to honour its no-hard-border guarantee, so it won't be necessary. We've always known that if the UK welshes on its gurantee, it will be necessary, and planning/preparation has taken this into account. But it was never a wise strategy for IrlGov to say that they didn't expect the UK to honour its guarantee - how would that help matters? - so they have avoided discussing this.

You ask for link then quote "the UK to honour its no hard border guarantee"

Mr.Wemmick

George Osborne being interviewed in Davos said the problem here if you continue to pretend you are leaving without a deal it just might become a reality.
He went on to say that Philip Hammond has sensibly told UK business leaders that isn't a possibility, but we now need to hear it from the Prime Minister.

Osborne's comments highlight what a shambles this whole process is when no one really knows what the hell is going on and what is going to happen.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

Faisal Islam shared this interesting tweet about polls and their support for Remain or Leave and how Remain has has a lead for a long time now. This is actually different than before the referendum where the polls were actually very close and split on whether people would want to remain or leave.

What the polls show is:

(a) if there were a second referendum, most people would vote to Remain; but

(b) most people don't want a second referendum.

Confused? Me too.

Enzokk wrote: »

Also we have to think that the polling companies will have refined the way they interpret the data following the referendum as they were in uncharted waters before the vote.

The thing last time, as I understand it, was that the polls correctly reflected how people would vote, but the polling companies failed to correctly predict who would vote. Which is to say, the polls were correct about how voters of various ages, gender, socioeconomic class, etc would break down between Leave and Remain, but what was not forseen was the very high turnout, with groups that normally vote in low numbers turning out in high numbers.

Presumably they're trying hard to get this right now. But whether they succeed or not, we won't know unless there is actually a second referendum.

Enzokk

Faisal Islam shared this interesting tweet about polls and their support for Remain or Leave and how Remain has has a lead for a long time now. This is actually different than before the referendum where the polls were actually very close and split on whether people would want to remain or leave.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1087859091748413440

Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum

Also we have to think that the polling companies will have refined the way they interpret the data following the referendum as they were in uncharted waters before the vote.

Peregrinus

judeboy101 wrote: »

The UK have never moved from their position that they will not put up a hard border.

Has HMG (as opposed to this or that loopy Brexiter) actually said this? SFAIK they have not but I'm open to correction. (But if you are correcting me, a link to a source for HMG saying this would be appreciated.)

judeboy101 wrote: »

Leo and Simon have spun that they won't. The EU supports Ireland and the GFA, "we are Irish" bull****. Ironically JRM said this is what would happen a year ago. Seems he was more honest than Leo & friends.

IrlGov's position has been that they don't intend to erect border controls because they expect the UK to honour its no-hard-border guarantee, so it won't be necessary. We've always known that if the UK welshes on its gurantee, it will be necessary, and planning/preparation has taken this into account. But it was never a wise strategy for IrlGov to say that they didn't expect the UK to honour its guarantee - how would that help matters? - so they have avoided discussing this.

Enzokk

EdgeCase wrote: »

Bear in mind another issue : it will be a customs border if it happens. It won't be a security or immigration border as movement of people issues don't really arrise.

Yes it would only be a custom post but as Fintan O'Toole puts it in this clip that it becomes a target and once it is a target you have to protect it. That is when the trouble starts.

https://twitter.com/The_Convention_/status/1086214907304046592

The move from just a customs post to a security post attached could happen very quickly and from there we sort of know where it leads to.

EdgeCase wrote: »

There's no compromise situation on the table. The single market rules are very serious and are further backed up by the WTO rules.

The only solution would take Ireland out of the common market and into some associate member status which would be a total disaster.

I'd say we are going to have to come up with some kind of academic and technical border that works on paper trails tbh and try damn hard to convince the EU and WTO that it is going to be actually enforced bureaucratically to the point that no infrastructure is needed.

We do know that both Ireland and the UK knows about the need to keep the border open. If the UK wasn't serious about this we would not have had the backstop that was agreed in the WA. So I still think it is just as likely that we will still see a deal on the side of no deal (I know how that sounds) where the UK will do customs checks in the Irish Sea to avoid a border in the case of no deal instead of them also having to put up a border in NI. Their military will be stretched on the mainland in any case to also have to worry about dying again in NI. That is my hope at least.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Important gloss required here: checks in France and Holland on goods from Ireland in a no-deal Brexit situation, if we fail to operate checks on goods crossing the RoI/UK border.

But, seriously, this isn't news to anybody, is it? This is the whole reason why we need a Withdrawal Agreement with a backstop in it.

Well in no deal there would need to be checks somewhere, it would just depend where they will take place. What we are reading right now is that our government is exploring all the options open to them. This is going to be one big game of chicken and seeing the reaction of some here they would not fare well if they were put in the hot seat.

Calina

judeboy101 wrote: »

Rte confirming story, Leo told party leaders checks on France and Holland on goods from Ireland. We will be effectively outside CU .

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0122/1024903-brexit-border/

Well frankly, I want a hard border in that case. And it is about time Britain recognised and took ownership of it. I dont care if the said they didnt want one, it results from their decision. At no point has anyone on the UK side been honest about the consequences of their decision.

Hard border results from Brexit. UK is responsible for it.

[Deleted User]

judeboy101 wrote: »

Rte confirming story, Leo told party leaders checks on France and Holland on goods from Ireland. We will be effectively outside CU .

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0122/1024903-brexit-border/

Well that would be a guaranteed return to violence.

The Irish hating the British for wrecking the country, and the British hating the Irish for wrecking the withdrawal agreement, and NI stuck in the middle.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

Important gloss required here: checks in France and Holland on goods from Ireland in a no-deal Brexit situation, if we fail to operate checks on goods crossing the RoI/UK border.

I forget the date, but it is maybe a year, year and a half ago, Irish officials were talking about Border preparations and Varadkar told them to shut up about it. Not to stop planning, but to stop talking.

Precisely because all the "EU will stab us in the back and then kick us out and then take their knife home with them" talk would start. As, indeed, it has.

judeboy101

Peregrinus wrote: »

Important gloss required here: checks in France and Holland on goods from Ireland in a no-deal Brexit situation, if we fail to operate checks on goods crossing the RoI/UK border.

But, seriously, this isn't news to anybody, is it? This is the whole reason why we need a Withdrawal Agreement with a backstop in it.

The UK have never moved from their position that they will not put up a hard border. Leo and Simon have spun that they won't. The EU supports Ireland and the GFA, "we are Irish" bull****. Ironically JRM said this is what would happen a year ago. Seems he was more honest than Leo & friends.

Peregrinus

judeboy101 wrote: »

Rte confirming story, Leo told party leaders checks on France and Holland on goods from Ireland. We will be effectively outside CU .

Important gloss required here: checks in France and Holland on goods from Ireland in a no-deal Brexit situation, if we fail to operate checks on goods crossing the RoI/UK border.

But, seriously, this isn't news to anybody, is it? This is the whole reason why we need a Withdrawal Agreement with a backstop in it.

judeboy101

Rte confirming story, Leo told party leaders checks on France and Holland on goods from Ireland. We will be effectively outside CU .

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0122/1024903-brexit-border/

Kermit.de.frog

They should take it to the wire and no deal. If it's a hard border so be it but we should not allow ourselves be pushed around by the UK.

A second referendum in the UK is not far away now. If the government holds out there is every prospect a vote can be forced through the Commons.

sandbelter

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

Customs checking your exports into Europe will signal to the world a de facto Irexit.

This is the worst possible outcome for Ireland....a hard board is a disaster but this would send a simple message to the world....Europe comes second.

joeysoap

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Sealing roads would simply lead to people opening them again. You could shoot them, of course, but that might have political consequences or the Gardai and Army might simply refuse.

Historical precedents re stopping smuggling are not good.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/argus/news/building-tunnels-under-the-border-to-smuggle-pigs-fascinated-worlds-media-26938725.html

However, even if there was a "no deal" on 30 March, I wouldn't panic, the British have to make a deal, the cannot ignore the EU. The majority in NI want the border open, a "no deal" is not stable.

Didn’t Brendan McGahon (Louth td) say that more oil went through Culloville than through the Straits of Hurmuz? In the Dail. He was (half) joking. I think.
Couldn’t close the roads that time anyway. As for foot and mouth, sometimes I was stopped, sometimes had to dip my feet in a bucket the Garciai had, sometimes the car was sprayed. Dundalk fc had to play in drogheda but nobody told the birds not to fly over the border. And if there was delays you just went around the checkpoint. Nuisance and depending on what road you were on sometimes added a few miles to your journey. ( you had to guess which was better). Nobody wants a return of that.

Infini

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

I would hold on any hearsay and such right now until things are clearer. Right now everyone is planning contingencies and noone knows whats truly going to happen. This is a problem purely of the UKs making and they wont be able to get away from the EU in the long run. There wont be any kicking of Ireland or anything either at most they might have extra checks. The backstop will not be dropped or changed because quite literally its the only workable option for Ireland. If they cannot have it as part of WA it will be part of future agreement.

If there is a border the simple truth is they cant just be seen to throw Ireland under the bus expecially considering this will be caused by the reckless actions of a former member state with an utterly incompent government. Not only that but the last thing the EU needs is to fuel populists in other EU states either and be seen to damage a member for circumstances outside their control.

EdgeCase

There's also a significant possibility that the UK goes into a very hardcore currency and sovereign and private debt crisis that causes a major global financial incident.

That would be followed by a major change of politics and attitudes in the UK, but I still think we are risking a 2008 style meltdown. There are a lot of economic risks that will suddenly become crystallised by investors losing confidence.

I would be preparing for a few months of potential chaos tbh and certainly trying to eliminate risks this year.

For me this is a year of paying down debt and avoiding overstretching my finances.

MrMusician18

In every crisis there is opportunity. And nothing happens in isolation
There are elements within the commission that want to extract concessions from Ireland in the area of common tax policy and will use this to further that agenda.

While I'm no expert on EU law, the worst sanction the EU can impose on a member nation is to withdraw their voting rights. Is it even legally possible to be suspended or removed from the CU?

It would be my guess that in the event of no deal, the Irish government is banking on chaos to bring the UK back to the table fairly sharpish.

I would fully expect the EU to give implementation of the hard border a pass if it was to be open and unagreed for a matter of weeks or months. However if it lasted longer, or there was an animal health crisis then things would change dramatically.

Charles Babbage

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It would be a mammoth task to try and implement a hard border effectively over night. I would imagine upwards to 1,000 Gardaí would have to be deployed to border divisions alone. The number of Gardaí in border areas has declined by 50% + in recent decades. Then you would have to construct border infrastructure and seal roads to make it more manageable. It would be hugely costly and would massively impact on people's way of life in border communities.

Sealing roads would simply lead to people opening them again. You could shoot them, of course, but that might have political consequences or the Gardai and Army might simply refuse.

Historical precedents re stopping smuggling are not good.

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/argus/news/building-tunnels-under-the-border-to-smuggle-pigs-fascinated-worlds-media-26938725.html

However, even if there was a "no deal" on 30 March, I wouldn't panic, the British have to make a deal, the cannot ignore the EU. The majority in NI want the border open, a "no deal" is not stable.

EdgeCase

sink wrote: »

I don't think we should worry too much about a no-deal scenario lasting very long, certainly not long enough for the prospect of a border between Ireland and the rest of Europe to take shape. Chaos in the UK in that situation serves our purpose by forcing them back to the negotiating table with an even weaker position than they have now. No-deal will only last as long as it takes to hold an election and for a new government to be formed, which will certainly not constitute the conservative party or the DUP.

I think that's likely after a period of total chaos in March and maybe into the summer.

I could see a no deal happening followed by a serious economic crisis in the UK and then a deal being struck after the event and probably after a general election and the consumption of a lot of humble pie.

I'd see a much more pragmatic approach from a far less arrogant UK 2 or 3 months after a hard Brexit.

EdgeCase

Charles Babbage wrote: »

But those plugs have no fuse and we have ring mains with 30A trips.

I'm mindful not to want to derail this thread into a discussions about a very simple technical standard but I also want to just quash the notion that this stuff is a major problem. It simply isn't.

It's a very minor technical issue that's easily overcome.
Some installations here use 32 amp ring circuits. Others (including my last 3 houses) use 16 and 20amp radials only. It's quite different in the UK where basically 100% of homes use rings.

You would continue to use the current sockets and adaptors on rings until the house was ultimately rewired. Or, you would use continental sockets that included a built in fuse on the live. That would give you say 16 amp local protection which 100% solves that issue.

Either way, it's a minor inconvenience that's being turned into massive deal. They're just dumb mains connectors. Nothing particularly technically complex about any of them.

The main thing is that the appliances can be sourced from continental supply chains, without any issue other than adapting or changing the plug.

I really do not want to turn the thread into a discuss about a plugs. It's a very small technical issue that is extremely easily worked around, even if it requires a tweak to the wiring regulations.

The key issue is that Ireland has a absolutely no risk of being unable to source electrical appliances and electronics. We just need to adapt our supply chains.

My main point is simply that it's not a major trade issue, but just a temporary inconvenience, no worse than what goes on every day in Denmark for example, a small market with non standard plugs.

The big challenges here will be about adjusting supply chains and that's across the board in every aspect of the economy.

Hopefully it's not going to get to this though and some kind of pragmatism dawns in London over the weeks ahead.

sink

I don't think we should worry too much about a no-deal scenario lasting very long, certainly not long enough for the prospect of a border between Ireland and the rest of Europe to take shape. Chaos in the UK in that situation serves our purpose by forcing them back to the negotiating table with an even weaker position than they have now. No-deal will only last as long as it takes to hold an election and for a new government to be formed, which will certainly not constitute the conservative party or the DUP.

EdgeCase

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

No one is taking about Irepand breaching common market rules though. Logically, if the EU agrees a compromise solution and Ireland goes along with it, thats the very opposite of breaching the rules.

There's no compromise situation on the table. The single market rules are very serious and are further backed up by the WTO rules.

The only solution would take Ireland out of the common market and into some associate member status which would be a total disaster.

I'd say we are going to have to come up with some kind of academic and technical border that works on paper trails tbh and try damn hard to convince the EU and WTO that it is going to be actually enforced bureaucratically to the point that no infrastructure is needed.

EdgeCase

Bear in mind another issue : it will be a customs border if it happens. It won't be a security or immigration border as movement of people issues don't really arrise.

johnnyskeleton

EdgeCase wrote: »

If we end up in breech of EU common market rules, we can't stay in the EU and that basically would mean bye bye FDI, market opportunities and basically back to the bad old days of mass emigration and poverty.

I don't think committing economic suicide is good for this island or a future united Ireland.

No one is taking about Ireland breaching common market rules though. Logically, if the EU agrees a compromise solution and Ireland goes along with it, thats the very opposite of breaching the rules.

Sierra Oscar

Deleted User wrote: »

The stark realities of this whole Brexit story really seem to have crystallized with today's events and demonstrate how unpleasant it could get. Could we afford to implement and maintain a hard border ourselves? Remember the foot & mouth affair in 2001 and the large diversion of resources needed to police it. I remember the feeling at the time after it was all over: "thank God for that, can you imagine if that was a permanent arrangement". I honestly think we can't do it ourselves with the physical characteristics of the border making it impossible tbh.

It would be a mammoth task to try and implement a hard border effectively over night. I would imagine upwards to 1,000 Gardaí would have to be deployed to border divisions alone. The number of Gardaí in border areas has declined by 50% + in recent decades. Then you would have to construct border infrastructure and seal roads to make it more manageable. It would be hugely costly and would massively impact on people's way of life in border communities.

I just can't see how we could fulfil our obligations to enforce a hard border. That leaves two options for the Irish Government - let ourselves be kicked out of the Customs Union or compromise on the backstop and fudge the issue until the UK is given more time to arrange less onerous border arrangements.

EdgeCase

We're kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place.

If we end up in breech of EU common market rules, we can't stay in the EU and that would mean bye bye FDI, market opportunities, no more currency stability or low interest rates, not to mention a currently improving national debt burden that could suddenly become totally unsustainable and basically back to the bad old days of mass emigration and poverty.

My view of it is if it happens it happens. Blame the DUP and the Tories and Northern Ireland will probably be enthusiastically signing up for a united Ireland in a decade's time.

I don't think committing economic suicide is good for this island or a future united Ireland.

Northern Ireland's voters are a hell of a lot more pragmatic than the DUP.

Think long game here !!

Charles Babbage

EdgeCase wrote: »

Just to quash a myth
Worst case scenario, we end up with adapters and having to cut off and fit plugs and then phase in a modern version of earthed, shuttered, polarised continental sockets, like the French system.

The modern versions of continental sockets have similar safety features to ours. Finger protection (recessed socket) and shutters. The French version is also polarisrd (plug only goes in one way).

You'd be looking at something like a gradual phase out of the existing sockets as people rewire or update decor. A minor annoyance compared to most of the impacts of Brexit.

But those plugs have no fuse and we have ring mains with 30A trips.

[Deleted User]

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

The stark realities of this whole Brexit story really seem to have crystallized with today's events and demonstrate how unpleasant it could get. Could we afford to implement and maintain a hard border ourselves? Remember the foot & mouth affair in 2001 and the large diversion of resources needed to police it. I remember the feeling at the time after it was all over: "thank God for that, can you imagine if that was a permanent arrangement". I honestly think we can't do it ourselves with the physical characteristics of the border making it impossible tbh.