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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Sierra Oscar

Charles Babbage wrote: »

A border is not enforceable, even if you declare one.

If that prospect arises, and the EU Commission believe that Ireland is unable to enforce a border, then we could be placed outside of the Customs Union. That would be devastating for Ireland - and would also destroy the confidence that the Irish people have in the European Union. It would be interpreted as a massive betrayal. A volatile situation indeed.

As EdgeCase points out, what is needed is a special arrangement for Northern Ireland. That is impossible while the DUP are in control. A UK General Election is needed.

Mr.Nice Guy

Our government can't even figure out how to build houses properly and people think it's going to be able to enforce a border that has more crossings than the entire Eastern frontier of the EU? No chance.

Charles Babbage

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

More on the prospect of Ireland being isolated alongside Britain in the event of a no-deal scenario:

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1087861398586224640

The Irish Government would have little option but to implement a hard border if this came to pass.

A border is not enforceable, even if you declare one.

EdgeCase

The assumption initially (and I think even in London) was that Northern Ireland would have a special status to keep it in the UK but also effectively in the EU.

The EU was very happy to facilitate that due to the unique circumstances found in Northern Ireland and because the region is absolutely tiny in terms of economic consequences for the union as a whole.

The DUP ruled that out with their "blood red lines".

So if Brexit fails, Brexiteers can thank the DUP for making it an impossibility.

If we end up with a crash out and a hard border : thank the DUP.

If the Northern Irish economy goes into a tail spin, thank the DUP.

They've removed any possibility of a pragmatic solution to this and it was completely predictable that this would be the outcome.

Northern Ireland was given the opportunity to be in an absolutely fantastic situation economically. It could have been great. However, it the dogmatic identity politics dragged it back down to earth and we are where we are basically a choice of No Brexit or a crash out.

The Tories were warned and warned and warned about the risk of getting into bed with the DUP.

The incredible No Men strike again.

Sierra Oscar

More on the prospect of Ireland being isolated alongside Britain in the event of a no-deal scenario:

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1087861398586224640

The Irish Government would have little option but to implement a hard border if this came to pass.

Hurrache

The Sun political editor, Tom Newton Dunn, on the Sky paper review yet displaying more ignorance, or likely just making things up, saying Varadkar is under increasing pressure from the opposition, Irish media and EU to sit down with May and come to an agreement.

BonnieSituation

marieholmfan wrote: »

Does the EU / Japan free trade agreement have any relevance here. The Japanese also drive on the right side of the road (right as in correct).

Just clear this up now...

RHD or driving on the left (IRL, UK, JPN, AUS, NZ) vs LHD and drvining on the right (USA, CDN, FR, DE, NL)

Charles Babbage

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

The backstop is not a serious obstacle to a deal, except in the context of the parties in Westminster refusing to cooperate with each other. Labour want a customs union anyway, they did not vote against the withdrawal agreement because of the customs union. As for the Brexiteers if it wasn't the backstop it would be something else. There might be 20 (dup + 10) with definite views on the backstop, but no more.

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

An utterly fascinating development. Their joint announcement today signalling astutely more military and political cooperation between France and geemany was delicately timed to send a message

Was it to say to on the fence voters in the case of a second referendum, don’t bother trying to stay inside the EU if you hope to keep our military, social and political integration projects at arms length?

That there is more substance to the ‘scare stories’ about sovereignty and a European Armed Forces than many remain campaigners (looking your way right now Mr Clegg) would ever care to admit.

I really don’t know. But I don’t think it will help convince anyone in England that a second vote to stay means a return to the status quo.

Out of interest, I know the majority here are obviously very pro-EU, but how do you feel about the talk from Verhofstadt, Macron and Merkel today about a unified European military able to defend the continents from Putin’s armoured divisions?

Is it a good thing, a concern, or a step too far, or at least too soon?

Well AFAIK the EU military will still be subject to a veto. So any EU country can veto their participation in this or even if they want to establish it. So if any country doesn't want to participate they don't have to.

theguzman wrote: »

The EU have let Ireland down by failing to make enough concessions to the UK to avoid a hard border. They wanted free trade without the EU telling them what to do and telling them who can live in the UK and who can't. The Eu should be about trade like the days of the Coal and Steel Pact not turning into a Franco/German Empire.

There are no concessions from the EU that would have satisfied what the UK was after unless you wanted to break up the EU. They want access to the single market and they want to have frictionless trade with the EU but they don't want to sign up to the four freedoms nor do they want to have the same tariffs of the EU which will avoid the border. This is because they want to negotiate their own trade deals.

Do you think you could expand on where and what the EU could have conceded to the UK that would have gotten a deal over the line?

EdgeCase

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Places like Italy (three in a row, two different sizes) and Belgium (three in a row with a offset) have something entirely different to the French/German compromise (earth on sides vs earth pin).

Top Tip : if visiting the EU the "continental adaptors" you get here are usually un-earthed and in most countries they are only useful in bathrooms where the washing machine is, or for compatibility with local adaptors ( it's MUCH easier getting a "German" adaptor than a UK one)

That's the lovely thing about standards , there's so many to choose from.

Unlike , say , Brexit deals.

Belgium uses exactly the same as France. It's where the current CEE 7 system originates. The compromise system that fits German and French sockets originates in the Benelux to have a completely compatible system between those 3 countries. It was developed in the 50s/60s and subsequently adopted across Europe.

A lot of pan EU concepts originated in the Benelux.

I would ignore Italy's issues. Their plug/socket system is absolutely bonkers with multiple standards nationally.

Switzerland uses the weird 3 pins with one offset. They're not in the EU and tend to be isolationists anyway.

Denmark is the only other odd one and they're apparently adopting the French/Belgian standard.

Italy is allegedly phasing out it's old multiple national standards in favour of CEE 7, but it seems most people haven't got the memo and use all 3 or 4 different types simultaneously. That's more a reflection of Italy than it is of EU standards.

Basically ALL of Europe (with the exception of a few hold outs) use the same plug and socket. It's also used right across the former USSR and also in South Korea and various other places around the world.

AFAIK, it's the most widely used system on the planet.

This stuff is FAR less chaotic than people seem to think.

An Claidheamh

SNIP. Please read the charter before posting again.

marieholmfan

Folkstonian wrote: »

Out of interest, I know the majority here are obviously very pro-EU, but how do you feel about the talk from Verhofstadt, Macron and Merkel today about a unified European military able to defend the continents from Putin’s armoured divisions?

Bizarre especially given their treatment of the UK which is one of very few European countries with warfighting capacity.
Throughout this process the EU hasn't been at all interested in UK intelligence gathering abilities, in the UK contribution to Galileo or in anything other than trade.

The EU clearly institutionally doesn't see an army as part of ever closer union so what is the Macron / Merkel deal actually about?

Sierra Oscar

Mushy wrote: »

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

I feel it's the opposite - the EU Commission and EU Leaders' are putting the prospect of a compromise with the backstop on the table. It'll never be acknowledged publicly and it will have to be something the Irish Government proposes.

The latest reports emerging are that the Irish Government is growing increasingly concerned that Ireland could be isolated outside of Europe alongside Britain if a hard border is not implemented on the island of Ireland in the event of a no deal scenario. It is being suggested that a customs hard border could be imposed at Calais and Rotterdam. This is a seriously worrying development for Ireland. The Taoiseach apparently briefed the leaders of the opposition parties on the matter this evening. It seems to me that the EU Commission could be about to force Ireland to compromise on the backstop in order to avoid us being isolated with Britain, or force us to implement a hard border ourselves.

The Irish Examiner are carrying a detailed story on it tomorrow.

A Dub in Glasgo

Firblog wrote: »

No mate, did you hear even one MP say what a good thing the backstop was? Did you hear anyone using it as a plus point when trying to sell the deal? Didn't think so, it was the poisoned pill most MPs refused to swallow.

Well you can now tell us how many MPs voted to kill the backstop

Capt'n Midnight

EdgeCase wrote: »

Worst case scenario, we end up with adapters and having to cut off and fit plugs and then phase in a modern version of earthed, shuttered, polarised continental sockets, like the French system.

Places like Italy (three in a row, two different sizes) and Belgium (three in a row with a offset) have something entirely different to the French/German compromise (earth on sides vs earth pin).

Top Tip : if visiting the EU the "continental adaptors" you get here are usually un-earthed and in most countries they are only useful in bathrooms where the washing machine is, or for compatibility with local adaptors ( it's MUCH easier getting a "German" adaptor than a UK one)

That's the lovely thing about standards , there's so many to choose from.

Unlike , say , Brexit deals.

Charles Babbage

What's happening here?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/22/irish-pm-tells-uk-only-bilateral-deal-would-prevent-post-brexit-hard-border

Is Leo leaving the EU? Weird!

Folkstonian

Why is right hand drive genuinely weird?

If you mean simply in terms of numbers of cars worldwide in comparison to left hand drive, then this isn’t the case really.

But if you mean the actual mechanics of it; seeing as between 80 and 90 percent of people worldwide are right handed, does right hand drive seem to be the solution that allows the safest way to change gears, as the more dominant and dexterous hand of the driver is the one invariably left on the wheel, allowing better control of the vehicle?

EdgeCase

marieholmfan wrote: »

Does the EU / Japan free trade agreement have any relevance here. The Japanese also drive on the right side of the road (right as in correct).

It may have but cars were specifically excluded from it for a period of time to allow adaptation.

It could end up integrating us into the Japanese car market though.

At present there isn't technical harmonisation. It's just a trade deal but that is likely to evolve, assuming the deal stays on track.

EdgeCase

It's undoubtedly going to impact Irish supply chains but I think the notion that it will impact Ireland more than the UK doesn't hold water.

We have alternative routes, destinations and supply chains without any need to negotiate anything. At worst we have a few bumps as we adapt but we don't have a medium term problem.

Goods can bypass the UK if they have to.

The UK on the other hand is permanently cutting itself off from the common market.

We just have to deal with the lack of smooth access to the UK. The rest of Europe remains unchanged for us. It's a logistical challenge to replace the land bridge routes across the UK but it's far from insurmountable.

Ireland's relatively small and nimble. So it's not as massive a task to resolve as the UK is logistics sector is facing.

marieholmfan

EdgeCase wrote: »

I would be a lot more worried about cars as right hand drive is genuinely weird and if the UK were to wander way off EU norms you could have issues here.

Does the EU / Japan free trade agreement have any relevance here. The Japanese also drive on the right side of the road (right as in correct).

Bigus

Mushy wrote: »

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

From day 1, it was obvious that a hard border would be needed in the event of a no-deal. Irish government don't want it, nothing they can do though. But I really think that, as no sides want a hard border, it'll pressure the UK into ensuring there isn't a no-deal. If there is, it'll make the UK look worse (if that's even possible at this stage)

I've been saying it for 2 years , the real issue for the uk is the hard border at Calais, Rotterdam , zeebrugger et all , and they need to realise the full implications of this , Eu pointing out the Pontential issues on the land border might help crystallise minds as to what's going to happen at ports, which is where Brexit life difficulties will bang home.

Folkstonian

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

And then the people spoke again and took away May's majority. (BTW France and Germany just got closer - check the news, Brexit is a unifying force in Europe )

An utterly fascinating development. Their joint announcement today signalling astutely more military and political cooperation between France and geemany was delicately timed to send a message

Was it to say to on the fence voters in the case of a second referendum, don’t bother trying to stay inside the EU if you hope to keep our military, social and political integration projects at arms length?

That there is more substance to the ‘scare stories’ about sovereignty and a European Armed Forces than many remain campaigners (looking your way right now Mr Clegg) would ever care to admit.

I really don’t know. But I don’t think it will help convince anyone in England that a second vote to stay means a return to the status quo.

Out of interest, I know the majority here are obviously very pro-EU, but how do you feel about the talk from Verhofstadt, Macron and Merkel today about a unified European military able to defend the continents from Putin’s armoured divisions?

Is it a good thing, a concern, or a step too far, or at least too soon?

EdgeCase

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It's 230V +/- enough to cover both 220 and 240 a typical EU fudge that keeps everyone happy.

We and the UK use ring mains, a system who's main benefit is that it used less copper wire when there was a shortage during WWII. The down side is you have to be bloody careful as it's very easy to overload , especially if there is a break in any of the wires. This is the reason why we have the safest plugs. Unless you stand on the buggers.

Also Ireland historically used standards inspired by Siemens and ASEA (now ABB) and DIN German sfuff. So we nominally used 220V 50Hz (standardised decades before the UK ever settled on 240V btw). It's also why we historically used German type DZ bottle shaped fuses and of that stuff.

Rings are Indeed permitted here but radials tend to be more common, again, we've somewhat more continental electrical heritage.

In the big scheme of things, you're talking about very minor differences involving a dumb plug and socket connector. There's only so many ways of connecting 3 wires with 3 lumps of brass and some springs.

Few, if any, appliances are actually made in the UK. So really it's just a supply chain issue, with most coming from the Far East or the continent anyway.

I would be a lot more worried about cars as right hand drive is genuinely weird and if the UK were to wander way off EU norms you could have issues here.

briany

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think you will find that the vast majority of Irish people think the backstop was a perfectly fair and adequate concession to the UK.
If they crash out they will crash out because a small political party in northern Ireland had an abstract objection to it. The DUP are the knife in the backs of us all, the rest of the UK included.

The backstop was intended to last only as long as the UK and EU needed to agree on an arrangement that kept trade friction and movement of people on the island of Ireland to an absolute minimum, i.e. as near as we can get to the situation that's currently enjoyed.

If May hadn't blundered her way into making the DUP kingmakers, the whole thing would have been sorted, and arrangements for a seamless solution at the border could have implemented in a sane, orderly and mutually agreeable fashion.

Mushy

Tell me how wrote: »

Irish and EU comments on the border have been consistent since the start.
They seem more prevalent now because the bright sparks in the UK are only now wakening up to the fact that the issue is a reality.

Oh they have, but feel it's a lot more open now than before. Does put pressure on UK moreso now

Hurrache

Mushy wrote: »

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

From day 1, it was obvious that a hard border would be needed in the event of a no-deal. Irish government don't want it, nothing they can do though. But I really think that, as no sides want a hard border, it'll pressure the UK into ensuring there isn't a no-deal. If there is, it'll make the UK look worse (if that's even possible at this stage)

The problem is that many in the UK are thinking the same thing, but in their favour. The backstop conundrum.

Tell me how

Mushy wrote: »

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

From day 1, it was obvious that a hard border would be needed in the event of a no-deal. Irish government don't want it, nothing they can do though. But I really think that, as no sides want a hard border, it'll pressure the UK into ensuring there isn't a no-deal. If there is, it'll make the UK look worse (if that's even possible at this stage)

Irish and EU comments on the border have been consistent since the start.
They seem more prevalent now because the bright sparks in the UK are only now wakening up to the fact that the issue is a reality.

Mushy

Does anybody feel that the comments regarding the hard border is a way to turn the screw on the UK?

From day 1, it was obvious that a hard border would be needed in the event of a no-deal. Irish government don't want it, nothing they can do though. But I really think that, as no sides want a hard border, it'll pressure the UK into ensuring there isn't a no-deal. If there is, it'll make the UK look worse (if that's even possible at this stage)

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/The_Convention_/status/1086214907304046592

Two of my favorite brexit commentators and neither of them have a clue what's going to happen next. Worrying times.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

The nominal voltage in the EU is 230 vac.

The EU tried to bring in a three pin plug that was to become a standard throughout the EU but was rejected by every country.

It's 230V +/- enough to cover both 220 and 240 a typical EU fudge that keeps everyone happy.

We and the UK use ring mains, a system who's main benefit is that it used less copper wire when there was a shortage during WWII. The down side is you have to be bloody careful as it's very easy to overload , especially if there is a break in any of the wires. This is the reason why we have the safest plugs. Unless you stand on the buggers.