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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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fly_agaric

J Mysterio wrote: »

If there is a No Deal Brexit, the government are not going to rush out and hurriedly sign agreements with Sisk for the construction, they are going to delay, delay, delay. In this scenario, we will be in crisis. It will be like reliving the treaty again, 100 years later, as our politics descend into chaos. And we can thank our British friends.

Yes this has worried me alot about what happens after a "No deal" Brexit (so have tended to post comments on it).
We're coming to a crunch where we will need to have a strategy for dealing with the situation and then make decisions and implement stuff based off it, not talk a load of shíte about "No hard border" and build castles in the air + wish after what might have been (the backstop).
To stereotype somewhat (but with much evidence from our politics) it is not our strong suit and I doubt we'll be able for this challenge.
Most likely scenario IMO after a UK "crash out" is that we will do as little as possible as regards enforcing of the new EU border/kick the can down the road for as long as humanely possible (and will perhaps be indulged by the rest of EU in this for a time).
Later we may have our hand forced by some instance where we have facilitated a huge fraud/smuggling scandal (hopefully not one that damages health or risks lives) in the EU.

Sam Russell

Calina wrote: »

Most of Europe is 220-240V and two pin plugs so I would like a citation for it being far too dangerous...

The nominal voltage in the EU is 230 vac.

The EU tried to bring in a three pin plug that was to become a standard throughout the EU but was rejected by every country.

There is a fundamental difference of opinion on electrical safety. The UK believes in ring mains and diversity, while Germany relies on a fuse per spur. France relies on double insulation to protect users, while we use ELCBs (earth leakage circuit breakers). It is not an EU competency so it is up to each country.

Ireland originally used Siemans plugs (German), but because of grey imports from the UK had to accept the inevitable and standardise on the UK design.

The EU plug is very like the Swiss one, but has a higher amp rating (16 a).

The only country to adopt the EU standard plug was Brazil - which is ridiculous, because they have both 110 v and 220 v distribution systems, but with identical plugs. This means if someone moves from the 110 vac region to a 220 vac region and plugs in their toaster, it wont just be the bread that is toast.

It would cost a fortune to change over. In my house, I think I have about 50 sockets and 50 plugs - it is amazing to actually count them - they are everywhere.

J Mysterio

swampgas wrote: »

I can see where 17-pdr is coming from, in that Varadkar and Coveney stating they will never put up a border is starting to stretch credulity. Everyone (okay almost everyone) knows that a hard Brexit means a hard border.

I can understand why up to now Leo and Simon haven't wanted to acknowledge that a hard border may be required, but at this stage in the game it's starting to sound a little desperate.

Maybe the point at which the Irish government starts talking publicly about a hard border is the point at which we will know that negotations are truly over, and that the EU has decided that a hard Brexit is inevitable?

If there is a No Deal Brexit, the government are not going to rush out and hurriedly sign agreements with Sisk for the construction, they are going to delay, delay, delay. In this scenario, we will be in crisis. It will be like reliving the treaty again, 100 years later, as our politics descend into chaos. And we can thank our British friends.

prawnsambo

Calina wrote: »

Most of Europe is 220-240V and two pin plugs so I would like a citation for it being far too dangerous...

I'm hazy on the details tbh, but our system of live, earth and neutral isn't the same as on the continent. An electrician explained it to me who had worked on Disneyland Paris and whatever the way they wire there, the chance of getting a fatal electric shock is much less than with our system. Hence the need for three pins, the third being the earth.

But I'd really need to research that again because it was a long time ago.

Calina

RobMc59 wrote: »

All this about a physical border is confusing-is it true that if the EU insist on this that Ireland will have to pay for the upkeep and policing of it?

If UK chooses a no deal Brexit, you mean. Please let's place responsibility where it belongs: in the hands of the country which voted to control its own borders.

Kermit.de.frog

P.S maybe Kevin Doyle of the Irish Independent needs to be more careful on his reporting that did the rounds on what Varadkar said today.

That was a categorically false representation of what Varadkar actually said. He never said Ireland would look to do any deal with the UK on it's own.

A bit of professionalism, accurate reporting and common sense wouldn't go a miss.

Brexiteers have seized on it with glee naturally.

Calina

prawnsambo wrote: »

No. Those aren't only manufactured in the UK. If they even are. And you can't really use two pin plugs on 240V AC. Far too dangerous.

Most of Europe is 220-240V and two pin plugs so I would like a citation for it being far too dangerous...

swampgas

I can see where 17-pdr is coming from, in that Varadkar and Coveney stating they will never put up a border is starting to stretch credulity. Everyone (okay almost everyone) knows that a hard Brexit means a hard border.

I can understand why up to now Leo and Simon haven't wanted to acknowledge that a hard border may be required, but at this stage in the game it's starting to sound a little desperate.

Maybe the point at which the Irish government starts talking publicly about a hard border is the point at which we will know that negotations are truly over, and that the EU has decided that a hard Brexit is inevitable?

Hurrache

We're certainly not leaving the single market.

road_high

Hard border won’t impact significantly on our economy- NI is a dot in our overall trade. Something will be worked out in the end, just not up to the EU to solve

J Mysterio

RobMc59 wrote: »

All this about a physical border is confusing-is it true that if the EU insist on this that Ireland will have to pay for the upkeep and policing of it?

Yes. It will be an EU border, but it is actually our border of our state so yes. It's not a matter of the EU insisting but a matter of following legal requirements and agreements.

As has been pointed out previously however, the government would of course be loathe to actually construct the physical border. Its unthinkable. They would, I imagine, filibuster themselves and argue relentlessly about it so it would be interminibly delayed.

One strand of thought is that the UK would be so destroyed in a No Deal Brexit, the government need only dely so long before they are forced to revert to the EU, in turn obviating the need for the border.

Let's hope it doesn't come to it and we won't be forced to deal with the worst possible scenario.

Kermit.de.frog

If it came down to a choice between a hard border or Ireland being dislodged from the EU single market (by Britain's actions in leaving) because we want to protect the GFA what are we going to do?

It would be absolutely catastrophic for Ireland to be dislodged from the single market. Think of what would happen to all the FDI here for the European market. It's far worse for us than barriers between us and the UK.

I'm afraid in our self interest a hard border may be inevitable. Only other option is be poorer with no border, outside the single market - and basically because the British say so.

Sam Russell

downcow wrote: »

You see we have very different starting points on how we view this you and me. You give far to much power to the English. I am British and n Irish fact! irrelevant of what an Englishman calls me. They don’t decide who is British. If I call him English it doesn’t mean he’s not British. Why do you care so much what English people call you. Be who you are whatever they think.

Most people in Britain (mainland) when asked what they are (nationality) will reply as follows.

1. I am English - if they consider them selves so.

2. I an Scottish - ditto.

3. I am Welsh - ditto.

4. I am Irish if they are from Ireland or from NI (and Nationalist).

5. I am British - if they are from Northern Ireland (and Unionist) or from India.

I think that about covers it. The first four would not consider them selves primarily British over the other identity.

I remember a discussion of the radio about the FIFA/Blatter corruption saga. A fellow from the (English) FA was saying Blatter was signing up football associations across the globe to FIFA that were not even members of the UN. Of course England, Scotland, Wales, and NI all have football associations signed up to FIFA and not one of them is a member of the UN. He did not realise the nonsense he was speaking - even when it was pointed out to him.

Capt'n Midnight

Looks like the UK just became a little less relevant in Europe

France and Germany have signed a new treaty on Tuesday aimed at breathing new life into their place at the centre of the European Union.

And in completely unrelated news another UK Vehicle manufacturer becomes foreign owned..
BAE Systems sells control of vehicles arm to Rheinmetall

British defence giant BAE Systems has sold a majority stake in its Land UK tank and combat vehicle division to German rival Rheinmetall for £28.6m.

The new joint venture gives Rheinmetall a 55% stake, with BAE owning the rest, and will be based at the UK firm's factory in Telford, Shropshire.

Called Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land, the venture will produce the British Army's new infantry vehicles.

BAE's Land UK is competing to upgrade and maintain the Challenger 2 tank.

#takebackcontrol

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

I fully understand that plans may not be revealed until it is necessary to do so, but the bottom line remains the EU will protect the integrity of the SM & CU. We will not get any leeway on this in the event of a no deal.

Not sure we were expecting any leeway. It was clear to me from the beginning that a hard border would be the outcome of no deal.

BonnieSituation

Akrasia wrote: »

Will be great craic in Northern Ireland if no deal goes through. Not enough fuel to get to work, not enough electricity to power the factories, not enough food to eat, not enough police or security services to keep the sectarian violence under control.

And Arlene Foster will still get re-elected in the next general election.

She'll never stand in a GE

Hurrache

Christy42 wrote: »

Both Ireland and the UK have had repeated claims about not putting up a border without any sort of back up of how this would work.

Honestly I think both know they are lying through their teeth but neither wants to be the first to admit it. I can see the first to admit getting a lot of the blame.

Not lies, diplomacy and negotiations.

Christy42

Both Ireland and the UK have had repeated claims about not putting up a border without any sort of back up of how this would work.

Honestly I think both know they are lying through their teeth but neither wants to be the first to admit it. I can see the first to admit getting a lot of the blame.

road_high

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Anyone else noticed that there will barely any transatlantic routes to avail of up there without Dublin airport.

And they want to attract FDI?

Reckon, Ireland should make it attractive and swift, to allow companies in the 6 counties to set up in the border counties.

Regularly sit beside Nordies on flights ...to England! The irony of it, having to go to an alleged “foreign” country to get to their “own” country- the ridiculousness of the non identity that is Northern Ireland

Hurrache

funkey_monkey wrote: »

I've been out all day and am just catching up on this.
Is it fair to say that Europe has blinked first on this issue? Reading r/UKpolitics on Reddit it appears that some are saying that as UK won't put up a hard border then it is Ireland who is breaking the GFA.
However, to me, it is a result of the UK actions that Ireland have to put up the hard border.

Also how does this align with the BREXIT promise to take back control of its borders and control immigration? How will the UK do that?

There's been no blinking, just the EU, as usual, admitting the reality of a no deal Brexit. Having an open border of course doesn't fit in with the taking back control idealogy, so as per my first point, I've yet to see a Brexiter acknowledging this gaping chasm in their logic when it comes to the border and WTO rules.

Seth Brundle

An Claidheamh wrote: »

If Fine Gael drag their heels and revert to their British apologist origins, Varadkar and Coveney can go.

Seriously what do you mean by that? There's nothing Ireland can do about it so long as we're separate to the UK on trade terms. This was always going to be the case if the UK crashed out without an agreement.
FG didn't chose that scenario. The British people and their politicians did by choosing the Brexit option (no matter how ill-informed it was).
By and large people are supportive of how the Irish government are handling Brexit (insofar as we can).
The Irish government were correct to say that we would not create a hard border. We didn't and won't. The EU will.

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

They are walking a very fine line between allowing a chink to appear in the armour of the EU position and trying to ensure that there's a fall-back position if that fails. They can spin all they like as far as I'm concerned because the alternative is to allow the UK to dictate the agenda. And there's no point in broadcasting what the plans are and what's happening now, for exactly the same reasons. What would that gain? Why do you need to know?

I fully understand that plans may not be revealed until it is necessary to do so, but the bottom line remains the EU will protect the integrity of the SM & CU. We will not get any leeway on this in the event of a no deal.

RobMc59

SNIP. Please read the charter before posting again.

Seth Brundle

A few announcements regarding shipping into the UK.
Can't help thinking that the UK government have already taken the leap towards a no deal scenario...

https://twitter.com/SimonCalder/status/1087714660088975361?s=19

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1087805796619075587?s=19

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1087454996885635072?s=19

Irishmale0399

An Claidheamh wrote: »

If Fine Gael drag their heels and revert to their British apologist origins, Varadkar and Coveney can go.

Personally think both are doing a great job under the circumstances

Hurrache

An Claidheamh wrote: »

If Fine Gael drag their heels and revert to their British apologist origins, Varadkar and Coveney can go.

Ah would you stop with this.

An Claidheamh

Akrasia wrote: »

Will be great craic in Northern Ireland if no deal goes through. Not enough fuel to get to work, not enough electricity to power the factories, not enough food to eat, not enough police or security services to keep the sectarian violence under control.

And Arlene Foster will still get re-elected in the next general election.

Anyone else noticed that there will barely any transatlantic routes to avail of up there without Dublin airport.

And they want to attract FDI?

Reckon, Ireland should make it attractive and swift, to allow companies in the 6 counties to set up in the border counties.

[Deleted User]

Hurrache wrote: »

There's no doubt they have plans for one, but they're not going to say it publicly at this point.

Hopefully thats the case, because at some stage after a no deal Brexit a hard border will happen. I also thought Schinas' thoughts about the Good Friday Agreement in relation to the imposition of a hard border a little unsettling:

The Union's commitment to the Good Friday Agreement, "will have to take inevitably into account this fact", he added, while insisting the EU would stand behind the peace accords that followed three decades of civil conflict.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-commission/no-brexit-deal-means-hard-irish-border-eu-says-idUSKCN1PG1HE

An Claidheamh

Amprodude wrote: »

What is this I see in the news with the European commissioner saying that if there is no deal its obvious there will have to be hard border. The Irish government won't agree to this. what happens then after this? Will there be a reunification vote? In North and South of Ireland?

Hard Border must equal a border poll. Also, possibly Schengen.

If Fine Gael drag their heels and revert to their British apologist origins, Varadkar and Coveney can go.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

I wonder if all this will effect Ireland's domestic electric set up which currently uses the UK system-will everything change to two pin plugs?

No. Those aren't only manufactured in the UK. If they even are. And you can't really use two pin plugs on 240V AC. Far too dangerous.