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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

In the light of what EU Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said today about a hard border in the event of a no deal Brexit I think it will soon be time for our own government to have a more realistic position on this. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s spokesman coming out and saying: “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one" simply isn't good enough at this stage IMO. The EU will expect the integrity of the SM & CU to be maintained, no exceptions.

Well if you read up the thread a bit, you'd find anecdotal reference to just such preparations being made. Plus an extra 300 customs officers were taken on last September.

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well if you read up the thread a bit, you'd find anecdotal reference to just such preparations being made. Plus an extra 300 customs officers were taken on last September.

I've been been reading the thread most days and I'm aware of the extra officers, but the type of spin Varadkar's spokesman came out with today needs to end considering the clock is ticking down all the time.

Irishmale0399

prawnsambo wrote: »

Does that actually matter? The EU has trade agreements with another 60+ countries, many of whom are in that number.

Cheaper import costs for cars or parts from mainland EU if there is not trade deal with the UK.....

Hurrache

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In the light of what EU Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said today about a hard border in the event of a no deal Brexit I think it will soon be time for our own government to have a more realistic position on this. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s spokesman coming out and saying: “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one" simply isn't good enough at this stage IMO. The EU will expect the integrity of the SM & CU to be maintained, no exceptions.

There's no doubt they have plans for one, but they're not going to say it publicly at this point.

briany

Infini wrote: »

In truth its all well saying this and that but DOING is going to be a completely different matter. We've well warned the consequences of trying to implent one and realistically in the event of one being forced out of practical concerns this should have a severe price on Britain if it comes to it in any future trade deal. The difference between a regular border and our own is that this is one whos existence has actual attacks on it as well as major opposition.

I know that the Irish government has vociferously stated their opposition to a hardening of the border on this island, but I'm not really sure how no border is workable from an Irish point of view. But I could be missing something, so am totally open to correction.

If the EU continues to take the sensitivity of the issue into consideration after the UK crashes out and allows the border to remain open, how does the EU ensure that goods from the UK aren't getting to the continent via this unique back door? Wouldn't it mean that Irish ports have to do the job of checking? How would port officials know? They'd need some sort of declaration of origin, wouldn't they? Where and how would that declaration be applied?

And if Irish ports were doing the checking, doesn't that pull Ireland slightly out of the EU along with the UK? I don't mean out out, obviously, but able to enjoy slightly less of the frictionless trade because of keeping an open border.

And would keeping the border open ruffle any feathers elsewhere in Europe? Are there any other EU nations that would like to have a more open border with a non-EU neighbour, owing to nationalism (e.g. a minority of their people living in that non-EU neighbour), and would complain that Ireland were getting special treatment? The EU seems to be very against bespoke arrangements for countries, such that it might undermine the integrity of the whole project.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

I've been been reading the thread most days and I'm aware of the extra officers, but the type of spin Varadkar's spokesman came out with today needs to end considering the clock is ticking down all the time.

They are walking a very fine line between allowing a chink to appear in the armour of the EU position and trying to ensure that there's a fall-back position if that fails. They can spin all they like as far as I'm concerned because the alternative is to allow the UK to dictate the agenda. And there's no point in broadcasting what the plans are and what's happening now, for exactly the same reasons. What would that gain? Why do you need to know?

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

You'd probably be looking at some building products, machinery and fittings. Mostly stuff that runs to imperial standard sizes or is unique to this part of the world and not used so much on the continent.

I wonder if all this will effect Ireland's domestic electric set up which currently uses the UK system-will everything change to two pin plugs?

An Claidheamh

downcow wrote: »

You see we have very different starting points on how we view this you and me. You give far to much power to the English. I am British and n Irish fact! irrelevant of what an Englishman calls me. They don’t decide who is British. If I call him English it doesn’t mean he’s not British. Why do you care so much what English people call you. Be who you are whatever they think.

Well firstly, YOU give too much power to the English, by consent of course.

Secondly, English/British people actually can decide if someone not from Britain is British.

Thirdly, you are Irish FACT. I gather that you don't really understand what a 'fact' is.

Lastly, English people call themselves English, Scottish call themselves Scottish, hearing someone with an Irish accent refer to themselves as 'British' is pretty laughable, like an American calling themselves "European".

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

I wonder if all this will effect Ireland's domestic electric set up which currently uses the UK system-will everything change to two pin plugs?

No. Those aren't only manufactured in the UK. If they even are. And you can't really use two pin plugs on 240V AC. Far too dangerous.

An Claidheamh

Amprodude wrote: »

What is this I see in the news with the European commissioner saying that if there is no deal its obvious there will have to be hard border. The Irish government won't agree to this. what happens then after this? Will there be a reunification vote? In North and South of Ireland?

Hard Border must equal a border poll. Also, possibly Schengen.

If Fine Gael drag their heels and revert to their British apologist origins, Varadkar and Coveney can go.

[Deleted User]

Hurrache wrote: »

There's no doubt they have plans for one, but they're not going to say it publicly at this point.

Hopefully thats the case, because at some stage after a no deal Brexit a hard border will happen. I also thought Schinas' thoughts about the Good Friday Agreement in relation to the imposition of a hard border a little unsettling:

The Union's commitment to the Good Friday Agreement, "will have to take inevitably into account this fact", he added, while insisting the EU would stand behind the peace accords that followed three decades of civil conflict.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland-commission/no-brexit-deal-means-hard-irish-border-eu-says-idUSKCN1PG1HE

An Claidheamh

Akrasia wrote: »

Will be great craic in Northern Ireland if no deal goes through. Not enough fuel to get to work, not enough electricity to power the factories, not enough food to eat, not enough police or security services to keep the sectarian violence under control.

And Arlene Foster will still get re-elected in the next general election.

Anyone else noticed that there will barely any transatlantic routes to avail of up there without Dublin airport.

And they want to attract FDI?

Reckon, Ireland should make it attractive and swift, to allow companies in the 6 counties to set up in the border counties.

Hurrache

An Claidheamh wrote: »

If Fine Gael drag their heels and revert to their British apologist origins, Varadkar and Coveney can go.

Ah would you stop with this.

Irishmale0399

An Claidheamh wrote: »

If Fine Gael drag their heels and revert to their British apologist origins, Varadkar and Coveney can go.

Personally think both are doing a great job under the circumstances

Seth Brundle

A few announcements regarding shipping into the UK.
Can't help thinking that the UK government have already taken the leap towards a no deal scenario...

https://twitter.com/SimonCalder/status/1087714660088975361?s=19

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1087805796619075587?s=19

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1087454996885635072?s=19

RobMc59

SNIP. Please read the charter before posting again.

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

They are walking a very fine line between allowing a chink to appear in the armour of the EU position and trying to ensure that there's a fall-back position if that fails. They can spin all they like as far as I'm concerned because the alternative is to allow the UK to dictate the agenda. And there's no point in broadcasting what the plans are and what's happening now, for exactly the same reasons. What would that gain? Why do you need to know?

I fully understand that plans may not be revealed until it is necessary to do so, but the bottom line remains the EU will protect the integrity of the SM & CU. We will not get any leeway on this in the event of a no deal.

Seth Brundle

An Claidheamh wrote: »

If Fine Gael drag their heels and revert to their British apologist origins, Varadkar and Coveney can go.

Seriously what do you mean by that? There's nothing Ireland can do about it so long as we're separate to the UK on trade terms. This was always going to be the case if the UK crashed out without an agreement.
FG didn't chose that scenario. The British people and their politicians did by choosing the Brexit option (no matter how ill-informed it was).
By and large people are supportive of how the Irish government are handling Brexit (insofar as we can).
The Irish government were correct to say that we would not create a hard border. We didn't and won't. The EU will.

Hurrache

funkey_monkey wrote: »

I've been out all day and am just catching up on this.
Is it fair to say that Europe has blinked first on this issue? Reading r/UKpolitics on Reddit it appears that some are saying that as UK won't put up a hard border then it is Ireland who is breaking the GFA.
However, to me, it is a result of the UK actions that Ireland have to put up the hard border.

Also how does this align with the BREXIT promise to take back control of its borders and control immigration? How will the UK do that?

There's been no blinking, just the EU, as usual, admitting the reality of a no deal Brexit. Having an open border of course doesn't fit in with the taking back control idealogy, so as per my first point, I've yet to see a Brexiter acknowledging this gaping chasm in their logic when it comes to the border and WTO rules.

road_high

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Anyone else noticed that there will barely any transatlantic routes to avail of up there without Dublin airport.

And they want to attract FDI?

Reckon, Ireland should make it attractive and swift, to allow companies in the 6 counties to set up in the border counties.

Regularly sit beside Nordies on flights ...to England! The irony of it, having to go to an alleged “foreign” country to get to their “own” country- the ridiculousness of the non identity that is Northern Ireland

Christy42

Both Ireland and the UK have had repeated claims about not putting up a border without any sort of back up of how this would work.

Honestly I think both know they are lying through their teeth but neither wants to be the first to admit it. I can see the first to admit getting a lot of the blame.

Hurrache

Christy42 wrote: »

Both Ireland and the UK have had repeated claims about not putting up a border without any sort of back up of how this would work.

Honestly I think both know they are lying through their teeth but neither wants to be the first to admit it. I can see the first to admit getting a lot of the blame.

Not lies, diplomacy and negotiations.

BonnieSituation

Akrasia wrote: »

Will be great craic in Northern Ireland if no deal goes through. Not enough fuel to get to work, not enough electricity to power the factories, not enough food to eat, not enough police or security services to keep the sectarian violence under control.

And Arlene Foster will still get re-elected in the next general election.

She'll never stand in a GE

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

I fully understand that plans may not be revealed until it is necessary to do so, but the bottom line remains the EU will protect the integrity of the SM & CU. We will not get any leeway on this in the event of a no deal.

Not sure we were expecting any leeway. It was clear to me from the beginning that a hard border would be the outcome of no deal.

Capt'n Midnight

Looks like the UK just became a little less relevant in Europe

France and Germany have signed a new treaty on Tuesday aimed at breathing new life into their place at the centre of the European Union.

And in completely unrelated news another UK Vehicle manufacturer becomes foreign owned..
BAE Systems sells control of vehicles arm to Rheinmetall

British defence giant BAE Systems has sold a majority stake in its Land UK tank and combat vehicle division to German rival Rheinmetall for £28.6m.

The new joint venture gives Rheinmetall a 55% stake, with BAE owning the rest, and will be based at the UK firm's factory in Telford, Shropshire.

Called Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land, the venture will produce the British Army's new infantry vehicles.

BAE's Land UK is competing to upgrade and maintain the Challenger 2 tank.

#takebackcontrol

Sam Russell

downcow wrote: »

You see we have very different starting points on how we view this you and me. You give far to much power to the English. I am British and n Irish fact! irrelevant of what an Englishman calls me. They don’t decide who is British. If I call him English it doesn’t mean he’s not British. Why do you care so much what English people call you. Be who you are whatever they think.

Most people in Britain (mainland) when asked what they are (nationality) will reply as follows.

1. I am English - if they consider them selves so.

2. I an Scottish - ditto.

3. I am Welsh - ditto.

4. I am Irish if they are from Ireland or from NI (and Nationalist).

5. I am British - if they are from Northern Ireland (and Unionist) or from India.

I think that about covers it. The first four would not consider them selves primarily British over the other identity.

I remember a discussion of the radio about the FIFA/Blatter corruption saga. A fellow from the (English) FA was saying Blatter was signing up football associations across the globe to FIFA that were not even members of the UN. Of course England, Scotland, Wales, and NI all have football associations signed up to FIFA and not one of them is a member of the UN. He did not realise the nonsense he was speaking - even when it was pointed out to him.

Kermit.de.frog

If it came down to a choice between a hard border or Ireland being dislodged from the EU single market (by Britain's actions in leaving) because we want to protect the GFA what are we going to do?

It would be absolutely catastrophic for Ireland to be dislodged from the single market. Think of what would happen to all the FDI here for the European market. It's far worse for us than barriers between us and the UK.

I'm afraid in our self interest a hard border may be inevitable. Only other option is be poorer with no border, outside the single market - and basically because the British say so.

J Mysterio

RobMc59 wrote: »

All this about a physical border is confusing-is it true that if the EU insist on this that Ireland will have to pay for the upkeep and policing of it?

Yes. It will be an EU border, but it is actually our border of our state so yes. It's not a matter of the EU insisting but a matter of following legal requirements and agreements.

As has been pointed out previously however, the government would of course be loathe to actually construct the physical border. Its unthinkable. They would, I imagine, filibuster themselves and argue relentlessly about it so it would be interminibly delayed.

One strand of thought is that the UK would be so destroyed in a No Deal Brexit, the government need only dely so long before they are forced to revert to the EU, in turn obviating the need for the border.

Let's hope it doesn't come to it and we won't be forced to deal with the worst possible scenario.

road_high

Hard border won’t impact significantly on our economy- NI is a dot in our overall trade. Something will be worked out in the end, just not up to the EU to solve

Hurrache

We're certainly not leaving the single market.