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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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An Claidheamh

downcow wrote: »

You see we have very different starting points on how we view this you and me. You give far to much power to the English. I am British and n Irish fact! irrelevant of what an Englishman calls me. They don’t decide who is British. If I call him English it doesn’t mean he’s not British. Why do you care so much what English people call you. Be who you are whatever they think.

Well firstly, YOU give too much power to the English, by consent of course.

Secondly, English/British people actually can decide if someone not from Britain is British.

Thirdly, you are Irish FACT. I gather that you don't really understand what a 'fact' is.

Lastly, English people call themselves English, Scottish call themselves Scottish, hearing someone with an Irish accent refer to themselves as 'British' is pretty laughable, like an American calling themselves "European".

RobMc59

prawnsambo wrote: »

You'd probably be looking at some building products, machinery and fittings. Mostly stuff that runs to imperial standard sizes or is unique to this part of the world and not used so much on the continent.

I wonder if all this will effect Ireland's domestic electric set up which currently uses the UK system-will everything change to two pin plugs?

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

I've been been reading the thread most days and I'm aware of the extra officers, but the type of spin Varadkar's spokesman came out with today needs to end considering the clock is ticking down all the time.

They are walking a very fine line between allowing a chink to appear in the armour of the EU position and trying to ensure that there's a fall-back position if that fails. They can spin all they like as far as I'm concerned because the alternative is to allow the UK to dictate the agenda. And there's no point in broadcasting what the plans are and what's happening now, for exactly the same reasons. What would that gain? Why do you need to know?

briany

Infini wrote: »

In truth its all well saying this and that but DOING is going to be a completely different matter. We've well warned the consequences of trying to implent one and realistically in the event of one being forced out of practical concerns this should have a severe price on Britain if it comes to it in any future trade deal. The difference between a regular border and our own is that this is one whos existence has actual attacks on it as well as major opposition.

I know that the Irish government has vociferously stated their opposition to a hardening of the border on this island, but I'm not really sure how no border is workable from an Irish point of view. But I could be missing something, so am totally open to correction.

If the EU continues to take the sensitivity of the issue into consideration after the UK crashes out and allows the border to remain open, how does the EU ensure that goods from the UK aren't getting to the continent via this unique back door? Wouldn't it mean that Irish ports have to do the job of checking? How would port officials know? They'd need some sort of declaration of origin, wouldn't they? Where and how would that declaration be applied?

And if Irish ports were doing the checking, doesn't that pull Ireland slightly out of the EU along with the UK? I don't mean out out, obviously, but able to enjoy slightly less of the frictionless trade because of keeping an open border.

And would keeping the border open ruffle any feathers elsewhere in Europe? Are there any other EU nations that would like to have a more open border with a non-EU neighbour, owing to nationalism (e.g. a minority of their people living in that non-EU neighbour), and would complain that Ireland were getting special treatment? The EU seems to be very against bespoke arrangements for countries, such that it might undermine the integrity of the whole project.

Hurrache

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In the light of what EU Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said today about a hard border in the event of a no deal Brexit I think it will soon be time for our own government to have a more realistic position on this. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s spokesman coming out and saying: “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one" simply isn't good enough at this stage IMO. The EU will expect the integrity of the SM & CU to be maintained, no exceptions.

There's no doubt they have plans for one, but they're not going to say it publicly at this point.

Irishmale0399

prawnsambo wrote: »

Does that actually matter? The EU has trade agreements with another 60+ countries, many of whom are in that number.

Cheaper import costs for cars or parts from mainland EU if there is not trade deal with the UK.....

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well if you read up the thread a bit, you'd find anecdotal reference to just such preparations being made. Plus an extra 300 customs officers were taken on last September.

I've been been reading the thread most days and I'm aware of the extra officers, but the type of spin Varadkar's spokesman came out with today needs to end considering the clock is ticking down all the time.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

In the light of what EU Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said today about a hard border in the event of a no deal Brexit I think it will soon be time for our own government to have a more realistic position on this. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s spokesman coming out and saying: “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one" simply isn't good enough at this stage IMO. The EU will expect the integrity of the SM & CU to be maintained, no exceptions.

Well if you read up the thread a bit, you'd find anecdotal reference to just such preparations being made. Plus an extra 300 customs officers were taken on last September.

Infini

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In the light of what EU Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said today about a hard border in the event of a no deal Brexit I think it will soon be time for our own government to have a more realistic position on this. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s spokesman coming out and saying: “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one" simply isn't good enough at this stage IMO. The EU will expect the integrity of the SM & CU to be maintained, no exceptions.

In truth its all well saying this and that but DOING is going to be a completely different matter. We've well warned the consequences of trying to implent one and realistically in the event of one being forced out of practical concerns this should have a severe price on Britain if it comes to it in any future trade deal. The difference between a regular border and our own is that this is one whos existence has actual attacks on it as well as major opposition.

Realisitcally though if theres a Hard Border it is likely to speed up the end of partition though as all indicatiors have pushed a likely UI as the result of this.

That being said if sane heads in Westminster managed to get their way its likely that if time runs out A50 will be withdrawn by Parliment rather than crash out. Its politically toxic but the alternative is a self inflicted and needless economic disaster. When push comes to shove the ideologues get shafted ultimately in other situations.

prawnsambo

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

How many of those cars are in the EU???

Does that actually matter? The EU has trade agreements with another 60+ countries, many of whom are in that number.

Irishmale0399

prawnsambo wrote: »

Actually 2.5 billion people drive on the left hand side of the road. So not exactly a small market.

How many of those cars are in the EU???

Infini

prawnsambo wrote: »

Actually 2.5 billion people drive on the left hand side of the road. So not exactly a small market.

Changing sides of the road would probably be too prohibitive as well for us. Theres no real need to change either since it would also mean every road junction and traffic lights needing realignment not just cars.

[Deleted User]

In the light of what EU Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said today about a hard border in the event of a no deal Brexit I think it will soon be time for our own government to have a more realistic position on this. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s spokesman coming out and saying: “We will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one" simply isn't good enough at this stage IMO. The EU will expect the integrity of the SM & CU to be maintained, no exceptions.

prawnsambo

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Thats the point....and even if you dig deep you will probably find that the production centers are on mainland Europe.

The EU can easily supply Ireland with its needs and more than likely take it from away imperial standard.....a change at first but maybe cheaper in the longterm. Only industry that I can think of is limited to car industry, where certain parts are made for right hand drives. Maybe Ireland will change the driving side to mainstream with the EU....:D:D

Actually 2.5 billion people drive on the left hand side of the road. So not exactly a small market.

Irishmale0399

prawnsambo wrote: »

You'd probably be looking at some building products, machinery and fittings. Mostly stuff that runs to imperial standard sizes or is unique to this part of the world and not used so much on the continent.

Thats the point....and even if you dig deep you will probably find that the production centers are on mainland Europe.

The EU can easily supply Ireland with its needs and more than likely take it from away imperial standard.....a change at first but maybe cheaper in the longterm. Only industry that I can think of is limited to car industry, where certain parts are made for right hand drives. Maybe Ireland will change the driving side to mainstream with the EU....:D:D

Hurrache

Only Brexit would have EU spokespeople paraphrasing The Spice Girls when discussing the UK government
https://twitter.com/yourmeps/status/1087690126757687296?s=19

Water John

TM's Deal or No Deal are far more likely to boost the odds on another Indy vote in Scotland, more than a 2nd Ref. Same goes for NI.
I'd say a Hard Brexit or Crash out Brexit will go a long ways to finishing off the remnants of the empire by dismantling the Union of Home Countries.

downcow

Lemming wrote: »

So, what you want is for Ireland to remove itself from the single market to suit the UK,to the absolute and total detriment of Ireland with the Irish people not consulted on the matter either. Oh, there's a position reeking of arrogance alright and it's not coming from Ireland.

But there is a border when it suits; phsytiosanitary checks are carried out at the NI border on livestock. To quote Paisley snr. "our cows are Irish" in reference to the BSE crisis. If you are from an agricultural background then you should be aware of this fact already, and its infamous history.

Speaking as someone living in Yorkshire for the better part of a decade now, whenever you [downcow] travel to the mainland UK, specifically England; you wont be viewed as British. Just Irish. You're as much a paddy as I am to them. I find that fact hysterical in just how tragic and sad it is; it's such a one-sided relationship for northern unionists.

You see we have very different starting points on how we view this you and me. You give far to much power to the English. I am British and n Irish fact! irrelevant of what an Englishman calls me. They don’t decide who is British. If I call him English it doesn’t mean he’s not British. Why do you care so much what English people call you. Be who you are whatever they think.

prawnsambo

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

What does the UK supply or offer to the EU that the EU cannot supply or offer itself??? What have the UK got the that the rest of the EU is dependant on???

You'd probably be looking at some building products, machinery and fittings. Mostly stuff that runs to imperial standard sizes or is unique to this part of the world and not used so much on the continent.

Enzokk

abff wrote: »

The rhetoric coming from Theresa May regarding "respecting the will of the people" has been driving me mad. But I chanced upon an even more annoying turn of phrase when watching Sky News just now.

Sir John Redwood, a Conservative MP, was being interviewed alongside a Labour MP, Chuka Umanna, who pointed out the misinformation that was trotted out about NHS funding, etc. in the run up to the Brexit vote. The parting shot from Sir John was that "what solves it is parliament growing up, accepting the verdict of the British people and just doing it."

I don't know why this particularly bothered me, given all the claptrap that has been trotted out by the Brexiters over the past few years, but the suggestion that it's childish to want to revisit the issue just irritates me.

I'd love to know what other people think of this.

For me it is the arrogance to claim the victory of the referendum when it was won on lies and then illegal funding to boot. The UK is supposed to the bastion of fair play and yet we can see quite clearly this is not true. That is what makes me scream at the screen whenever I see a Brexiter talking about how people knew what they voted for and they should just leave.

FrancieBrady

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Thats only a small part of the market. People may not be able to shop where they want but they should be able to get 99% of their needs.

I have asked twice before and I asked it last week on German radio when asked for my opinion......

What does the UK supply or offer to the EU that the EU cannot supply or offer itself??? What have the UK got the that the rest of the EU is dependant on???

Was thinking about this myself and couldn't think of a single daily use product that you can't get a version of in Lidl or Aldi or elsewhere. We'll survive.

Quin_Dub

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Thats only a small part of the market. People may not be able to shop where they want but they should be able to get 99% of their needs.

I have asked twice before and I asked it last week on German radio when asked for my opinion......

What does the UK supply or offer to the EU that the EU cannot supply or offer itself??? What have the UK got the that the rest of the EU is dependant on???

Realistically, in terms of day to day stuff, pretty much nothing.

Clearly certain brands might have availability issues , but alternative brands/versions are available from multiple other places..

Hurrache

prawnsambo wrote: »

Musgraves also have their plans in place. So that's all Super Valus and Centras etc. And I doubt Dunnes have been sitting on their hands. The real problems will be for Tesco and M&S. They're tied to UK supply chains.

Tesco have a large amount of Irish suppliers, all their meats and fruits are sourced via Ireland, Keelings and Country Crest for example.

Where they may have issues are with some of their ambient and non food stuff, but then too will Musgraves and Dunnes. Tesco won't be affected any more than those I don't think.

Plus they have an absolutely massive distribution centre in Donnabate which they can load up. As it is it's so big they lease some of the space.

M&S though would be in trouble, their stuff comes straight from the boat I think.

Irishmale0399

prawnsambo wrote: »

Musgraves also have their plans in place. So that's all Super Valus and Centras etc. And I doubt Dunnes have been sitting on their hands. The real problems will be for Tesco and M&S. They're tied to UK supply chains.

Thats only a small part of the market. People may not be able to shop where they want but they should be able to get 99% of their needs.

I have asked twice before and I asked it last week on German radio when asked for my opinion......

What does the UK supply or offer to the EU that the EU cannot supply or offer itself??? What have the UK got the that the rest of the EU is dependant on???

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

All this about a physical border is confusing-is it true that if the EU insist on this that Ireland will have to pay for the upkeep and policing of it?

Pretty much. I would assume that financial and logistical assistance would be provided at the outset and possibly for as long as needed, but we will have to spend the money first.

prawnsambo

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

As for rumours that Aldi and Lidl wont be able to deliver to Ireland.......I know and have seen one of the plans in place. They will move all goods through France directly to Ireland. Added to this they have their warehouses well stocked.......

Musgraves also have their plans in place. So that's all Super Valus and Centras etc. And I doubt Dunnes have been sitting on their hands. The real problems will be for Tesco and M&S. They're tied to UK supply chains.

RobMc59

J Mysterio wrote: »

The idea that Ireland will themselves start building a physical border across this country is just absolutely unthinkable.

And to be forced into such a position by the UK is an absolute bloody outrage

Perfidious Albion are absolutely hugely screwing us over again in Brexit. It's absolutely unacceptable.

Im wondering if Taoiseach and or Coveney can address Parliament or if we should propose suvh a thing. Imagine the opportunity of spelling out this unmitigated disaster to them and giving a piece of our mind.

We have to be direct now, we've bit our tongue for quite some time and have observed the diplomatic niceties, as the utter shambles and bloody madness unfolded across the water.

I'm worried it's all going to descend into utter chaos now. The societal anger and panic of a No Deal would be frightening and then couple that with some violence. The recent bomb in Derry and accompanying events has me concerned, that shìt is stirring. There are a lot of people about with strong views and limited intellect, be they nationalist, unionist, Brexiteer, 'Remainer'. This is getting completely out of hand, out of control.

UK needs someone to slap it across the face and shout 'snap out of it!'.

All this about a physical border is confusing-is it true that if the EU insist on this that Ireland will have to pay for the upkeep and policing of it?

Fr_Dougal

Would a 2nd referendum not make Scotland more likely to go for another independence vote?

brickster69

Nody wrote: »

The Irish government has know this would always be the case if there is no deal and they will implement it accordingly and it has been a well known fact since day 1 for people who bothered to check the basic understanding of how EU operates. There's a reason why Ireland pushed so hard for the backstop to be in the requirements because if not it would be a hard border by default in the agreement.

Not according to these 2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6ljJhZZo5s

Water John

Everyone is playing, on the basis of ruling out the other options. Thus a 2nd Ref will trump a Crash out Brexit in the HOC. May is playing that her deal will trump Crash out Brexit. A 2nd Ref will trump TM's Deal. A soft Brexit will trump TM's Deal.
The HOC seems to be now getting a means by which these choices can be expressed.
These are the scenarios.