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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Hurrache

As the commission said themselves, it's not a change of their position, just a statement of the obvious!

FreudianSlippers

Hurrache wrote: »

The internet is losing its **** over the fact that the EU commission has finally publicly said that in the event of a no deal there will be a hard border.

What's scary is that people are only realising this now. Just wait for the avalanche of people and sectors of the media attacking the Irish government, specifically Varadkar, over this.

It's definitely a weird one... I don't see how anyone looking logically at the border in the event of hard Brexit couldn't see that it would be necessary.

Adamcp898

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's only a transitional period if there's a withdrawal agreement.

I thought that would be self explanatory at this stage.

Perhaps a better question to ask would be why would a person from Northern Ireland "feel" more British than Irish. But in another thread.

Rather than everyone queuing up to make the same point Re: "This is what nationality people on the Island of Great Britain think you are." Not least while simultaneously lamenting how little people from Great Britain know about that aforementioned part of the United Kingdom.

Hurrache

The internet is losing its **** over the fact that the EU commission has finally publicly said that in the event of a no deal there will be a hard border.

What's scary is that people are only realising this now. Just wait for the avalanche of people and sectors of the media attacking the Irish government, specifically Varadkar, over this.

A Dub in Glasgo

I think this whole Brexit farce from the UK has demonstrated, in a very clear manner, that the UK is not a union at all and certainly not united. The bigger constituent country will always ride over the wishes of the other constituent countries if they feel that their own wishes will not hold sway. The views of the people of Scotland and NI have been blithely ignored and will continue to do so.

Lemming

downcow wrote: »

5) i believe most people, brexiteers included, would accept some sensible additional checks at the Irish Sea - but we need to see some compromise of sharing some checking maybe at NI border and even some at ROI France border. Current ROI position reeks of arrogace and is winding people up

So, what you want is for Ireland to remove itself from the single market to suit the UK,to the absolute and total detriment of Ireland with the Irish people not consulted on the matter either. Oh, there's a position reeking of arrogance alright and it's not coming from Ireland.

downcow wrote: »

GB is not a country anf there is no international border between NI and GB.

But there is a border when it suits; phsytiosanitary checks are carried out at the NI border on livestock. To quote Paisley snr. "our cows are Irish" in reference to the BSE crisis. If you are from an agricultural background then you should be aware of this fact already, and its infamous history.

downcow wrote: »

You just don't get it that i am not Irish and would never ever describe myself as such. I am British and Norther Irish. I also fully recognise that some of my neighbours are Irish and Northern Irish or maybe all three or maybe none. You need to get out of the mindset that everyone in NI is Irish

Speaking as someone living in Yorkshire for the better part of a decade now, whenever you [downcow] travel to the mainland UK, specifically England; you wont be viewed as British. Just Irish. You're as much a paddy as I am to them. I find that fact hysterical in just how tragic and sad it is; it's such a one-sided relationship for northern unionists.

A Dub in Glasgo

downcow wrote: »

You just don't get it that i am not Irish and would never ever describe myself as such. I am British and Norther Irish. I also fully recognise that some of my neighbours are Irish and Northern Irish or maybe all three or maybe none. You need to get out of the mindset that everyone in NI is Irish

I am in Britain 25 years and not once have I heard anyone refer to someone from NI as British or Northern Irish... they are simply Irish. You may not have an Irish passport but the people of Britain will call you Irish

micosoft

downcow wrote: »

To be really honest. here is my thoughts - uncensored
There is history which I think no of us can avoid. Some may pretend they are above it but I think it infects us deep in our thinking. and i could be wrong but my guess is that thats not just a northern problem but across the island - so much difficult history and we are all products of it.
So i don't want to rejoin ireland any more that many of you want roi to rejoin the 'kingdom'. So i suppose that is me admitting it is not all economic for me.

That said, I believe that the UK and EU and indeed UK & ROI are interdependant and stronger working together. I believe we are leaving the EU but I also believe that all parties mention firmly understand we will be better of working together and being supportive of each other.
I understand the EU need to play hard ball so as no one else considers leaving
I understand ROI need to play hard ball and use the border issue to their advantage to keep economic connections with UK
I understand NI needs to keep good solid economic connections with ROI (and more eg friends, culture, etc)
I understand UK needs to play hard ball and not just roll over to EU & ROI

That said I believe common sense will prevail at or after the 11th hour. The backstop will be watered down (or fudged) and we will all move on and build improving relationships in the years ahead. I don'r expect either poverty or the jackpot for UK or EU for that matter. I do also think ROI are in the shakiest position but trust that EU & UK will play ball and make it work in the end.

Probably setting myself up for a hammering but sure so be it

I just see the same words used again and again. The EU is a Rules based membership organisation. It is not playing at anything. It is simply applying the rules that everybody agreed to. It cannot be otherwise. It is the only way to keep 29/8 members aligned and in agreement - the alternative is chaos. It really surprises me that the English right and indeed Unionists are the ones pushing for a EU that does not work on rules because when the rules are on their their side they are absolute sticklers for it. We've listened to that view point for decades from the Unionist community in particular - that the rule of law is paramount. So imagine our surprise when we see a very different attitude emerging when the discovery is that the rules apply equally to the UK as they do others.

You can keep banging your head against the rules of the EU as long as you want but it won't work. And using dismissive terms like "playing" is a deliberate misunderstanding of the EU position as has been clearly articulated (outside certain parts of the English Press). The EU is applying the logic of the rules impartially and calmly.

On history you are right. It plays a part in all of our heads. Down south here we remember all of the bilateral "negotiations" we had with the UK - the treaty, the boundary commission and the economic war among many one-sided, unfair and frankly bullying behavior by the UK of a small country. We now see the solemn commitments of the Good Friday agreement (under which the Republic gave up it's claim on NI - a huge move) being cast aside. Forgive us if we cannot and will not trust negotiating with the British government. One of the global repercussions which is not yet appreciated in the UK is how much the UK's word has been devalued in the course of Brexit. That will come up in every treaty the UK attempts to sign by the way.

History has taught us in order to be independent we need to ally ourselves and in the EU we have found those allies. We are not some ball being bounced between the EU and the UK. We ARE the EU. OUR position is prioritized. Decades of influencing with our peers in the EU has seen the remarkable sight of 26 sovereign countries putting the needs of Ireland ahead of their own. Remarkable. It would be good for you to appreciate that as pretending that little Ireland is being used here let's you disengage with the reality that the DUP has managed to do more damage to the Unionist cause in a year than 40 years of IRA violence.

FreudianSlippers

downcow wrote: »

GB is not a country anf there is no international border between NI and GB. I havent checked but i am pretty sure the two nations on the islands recognised by the UN are ROI and UK of GB & NI. and some of you are reading far to much into a name - the nation of the UK was formed by bringing together GB & NI and that is recognised in the name - I really like it that way and would hate to see that bit of history erased

The UN doesn't recognise RoI as a member, because they're a soccer team.

Water John

You are now getting to crunch time. Some Govn't Ministers on the soft Brexit and Remain side are pushing hard for No Deal Brexit to be taken off the table. TM is listening more to ERG than the threat of a number of resignations from her Cabinet.

TM will be blocked from making it Her Deal or No Deal.

McMurphy

downcow wrote: »

You just don't get it that i am not Irish and would never ever describe myself as such. I am British and Norther Irish. I also fully recognise that some of my neighbours are Irish and Northern Irish or maybe all three or maybe none. You need to get out of the mindset that everyone in NI is Irish

When you arrive in Britain, they mostly will be oblivious to religious or political allegiance of either side of someone from the North.

You will be looked upon as being Irish, regardless.

That's the reality.

Water John

The real issues of today, Brexit rolls on, are Labour's slow shift of stance, the amendments being put down in the HOC by Grieve, Cooper and Labour.
Will an Extension to Art 50 be granted by the EU?

Example:Grieve explains how his amendment would work
This is how Dominic Grieve, the Tory pro-European, explained what his amendment to next week’s Brexit motion (see 10.58am) would achieve on Sky News.

'What my amendment does is to identify a number of Tuesdays between now and the date of Brexit in which the business will be controlled by the House itself and not by the government.

There will be a motion in neutral terms to start the day which is about looking at Brexit and what is going on, then members of parliament can table amendments for consideration which can be turned into resolutions of the House.

A resolution of the House is a pretty solemn thing. If the House says that it thinks something ought to be done which the government isn’t doing, the government can decide to ignore it but historically it would be very unusual in our constitution for that to happen'. Guardian Live.

I'm really not interested in any debate on side issues raised by downcow.

prawnsambo

Adamcp898 wrote: »

There's a transitional period yet to come folks, although I don't believe it's a full 24 months.

There's only a transitional period if there's a withdrawal agreement.

Adamcp898

There's a transitional period yet to come folks, although I don't believe it's a full 24 months.

Also, I thought the Republican-Unionist ****ehawking was meant to stop?

Silent Running

downcow wrote: »

You just don't get it that i am not Irish and would never ever describe myself as such. I am British and Norther Irish. I also fully recognise that some of my neighbours are Irish and Northern Irish or maybe all three or maybe none. You need to get out of the mindset that everyone in NI is Irish

You might not describe yourself as such, but the British will forever call you, and see you as Irish.

It was good enough for Edward Carson and Big Ian, who described themselves as Irish, but not good enough for downcow. I'm afraid that says more about you than you would like to have exposed in public. I would say you probably belong in the extremist category.

I would further say that you haven't realised yet that the rest of Britain doesn't give a tiny rats ass about you, as a region. Just my humble opinion, of course.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

You just don't get it that i am not Irish and would never ever describe myself as such. I am British and Norther Irish. I also fully recognise that some of my neighbours are Irish and Northern Irish or maybe all three or maybe none. You need to get out of the mindset that everyone in NI is Irish

You might identify as British, but Northern Ireland (the country) is not. I identify as Irish, even though all my neighbours are French. I fit in with the French laws of the land because I chose to live here, but emphasise my Irish differentness when I need to take the job of a Frenchman :cool:

If there is one thing that has made a basket case of the NI economy over the last 50 years, it's the absolute determination of hard-core unionists to portray themselves as pure-blooded Brits when the real Brits treat them as Irish, because - you know - they live in ... Ireland. :rolleyes:

But once again: as a Northern Irish small-U unionist, what do you believe are the (guaranteed) advantages for NI in hitching your wagon to the Brexit bus, in preference to remaining in the EU through a special-status arrangement?

Oafley Jones

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is unfortunate that the GFA failed to identify the terms used in it.

1. The GFA is also known as the 'Belfast Agreement' by some.

2. The term for NI is also known as 'the Six Counties' or 'Ulster'.

3. The UK of GB and NI is referred to as 'Britain' by some and as 'England' by others.

Much confusion would be avoided if they had defined all terms in the agreement and that all parties would only use those definitions in any matters dealing with the GFA, particularly the two Governments.

It would also be helpful if the UK Gov had implemented regional assemblies in England equivalent to those in the rest of the UK.

Nor does the GFA refer to the "Republic of Ireland", which of course is a soccer team and not a country.

prawnsambo

downcow wrote: »

Stop trying to get me to fit in your little box. I am pro gay marriage, i see two sides to the very complicated abortion debate and I am currently an ulster uniounist voter.
The regions of the UK have a range of differences, indeed scotland is more different that the rest re laws, Wales has a thriving language. I wojuld love to see equal marriage here but we cant get it because of a crazy undemocratic devolved assembly. that does not make me any less british or more irish

The box I have you fitted out for is the one where you pose questions and then ignore the answers. It's entirely frustrating to carry on a debate on those terms, so I'm coming to the conclusion that you are not honest in wanting an open debate.

Captain Obvious

downcow wrote: »

And therein is the problem. No one knows what deal will evolve between the UK and EU. You state it like you know what the outcome of the next two years negotiations will be. Will we vote again then if you are wrong

What? The next two years?

Oafley Jones

downcow wrote: »

You just don't get it that i am not Irish and would never ever describe myself as such. I am British and Norther Irish. I also fully recognise that some of my neighbours are Irish and Northern Irish or maybe all three or maybe none. You need to get out of the mindset that everyone in NI is Irish

True; but honestly, I'd be more concerned with how they regard you in Britain. Whether Unionist or Nationalist, you're simply "Irish" to a number of English people I know. And I doubt they're isolated. NI and it's inhabitants are a peculiarity (and inconvenience) that they'd love to be rid of.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

According to the Indo government sources believe the Polish foreign minister coming out with his statement was a set up between themselves and Poland. It's not that far fetched as the Polish statement came out just shortly after a Tory MP tweeted that they had called upon their Polish friends in support for movement on the backstop.

Right wing party supporting a right wing party. You know people by their friends.

spacecoyote

downcow wrote: »

And therein is the problem. No one knows what deal will evolve between the UK and EU. You state it like you know what the outcome of the next two years negotiations will be. Will we vote again then if you are wrong

No-one can predict the exact outcome, no. But I think one thing that can be definitively stated though is... you don't give a better deal to people outside than you give to your members inside.

Does anyone really think that they are going to get better terms from the EU, by leaving the EU?

I would say that, in the best case scenario, they'll end up with slightly worse terms than they have today.

And by extension, does anyone think that they can negotiate better terms for a trade agreement with another country when you're offering a market of 60m versus a market of 500-600m?

Hurrache

According to the Indo government sources believe the Polish foreign minister coming out with his statement was a set up between themselves and the UK. It's not that far fetched as the Polish statement came out just shortly after a Tory MP tweeted that they had called upon their Polish friends in support for movement on the backstop.

Tell me how

downcow wrote: »

And therein is the problem. No one knows what deal will evolve between the UK and EU. You state it like you know what the outcome of the next two years negotiations will be. Will we vote again then if you are wrong

What are you talking about "the next two years of negotiations"? You do realise today is the 22 of January 2019, not the 25th of June 2016?
The 2 years of negotiations have been completed.

All my points above can be considered as fact given what we are aware of today.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

And therein is the problem. No one knows what deal will evolve between the UK and EU. You state it like you know what the outcome of the next two years negotiations will be. Will we vote again then if you are wrong

What do you mean? We have a pretty good idea as we have the likes of Norway, Switzerland etc to look at. Any FTA agreement is going to require alignment of regulations, yet the UK have stated that they will not accept that.

So, unless the magic technology can be unearthed, then the decision will remain pretty much the same as it is now.

The WA should have been the easy bit. There is no way that a FTA will be completed within two years.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

GB is not a country anf there is no international border between NI and GB. I havent checked but i am pretty sure the two nations on the islands recognised by the UN are ROI and UK of GB & NI. and some of you are reading far to much into a name - the nation of the UK was formed by bringing together GB & NI and that is recognised in the name - I really like it that way and would hate to see that bit of history erased

Yeahhhh.... you might want to re-read your history. The "nation" of the UK was formed by England invading its neighbours, first the Welsh, then the Scots, leading to the Union of England and Scotland.

There was an ephemeral United Kingdom of Great Britain, France and Ireland, but the French got antsy, so that never got a look in and England settled the forced marriage labelled the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland.

Then the Irish got antsy, and about 100 years ago, England agreed to lop off 26/32nds of the territory and added "Northern" to the title of the state. None of that history will be erased by Brexit ... but it will certainly hasten the removal of the phrase "and Northern Ireland" if the unionists continue to act in the worst interests of their country.

Leroy42

Downcow, this is not an attack on Unionism, or NI. Brexit created all this mess. You cannot articulate any upsides and even your answer to the benefits mentioned continued reliance on subsidies from the UK.

Yet this all started because you seem to believe that this is somehow Irelands or the EUS fault, when time and again you have acknowledged that it is all because of the vote the UK had and the interpretation of that vote by the Tory party.

none, of this, I repeat, none of this, needs to happen. Call off Brexit and NI remains fully aligned (except for those parts you don't like!) with the UK. Brexit requires a decision to be made. Remain fully aligned to the UK and have a hard border, or split from the UK in trade terms.

It really is that straightforward. The DUP have decided, despite the majority in NI voting the other way, that a hard border is the way to go.

downcow

Tell me how wrote: »

Let's be clear. It would definitely not be about saying vote again so we can get the correct answer.

It would be a case of,"you now know the following, do you still want to leave".
The EU will not be begging us to sign a deal which is more favourable for us than them.

Germany/France will not push the EU aside to talk directly to us

Countries will not be pushing each other out of the way to strike deals with us

Logisitics and shipping are not going to run smoothly

There will not be €350M/week for the NHS.

The border in Northern Ireland is a big deal and can not be solved easily.

Technology does not yet exist to solve customs checks issues.

Many companies are going to close down and move their business abroad.

.

And therein is the problem. No one knows what deal will evolve between the UK and EU. You state it like you know what the outcome of the next two years negotiations will be. Will we vote again then if you are wrong

downcow

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yes, as pointed out above. And through all of this, the DUP protestations of how NI must be treated the exact same as the UK rings hollow when gay people in NI cannot marry and pregnant women in NI cannot seek the same range of medical services available to women in Wales, Scotland and England.

Your position is bankrupt if I'm being honest, which is in keeping with the long tradition of DUP politics.

Stop trying to get me to fit in your little box. I am pro gay marriage, i see two sides to the very complicated abortion debate and I am currently an ulster uniounist voter.
The regions of the UK have a range of differences, indeed scotland is more different that the rest re laws, Wales has a thriving language. I wojuld love to see equal marriage here but we cant get it because of a crazy undemocratic devolved assembly. that does not make me any less british or more irish

Tell me how

downcow wrote: »

Are you sure people will vote remain - im not so sure. people may not take kindly about being told you are stupid go back and get the correct answer.
I would also worry about the UK going forward if this is overturned. we will be divided for decades and some nasty people will get support who would normally

Let's be clear. It would definitely not be about saying vote again so we can get the correct answer.

It would be a case of,"you now know the following, do you still want to leave".

The EU will not be begging us to sign a deal which is more favourable for us than them.
Germany/France will not push the EU aside to talk directly to us
Countries will not be pushing each other out of the way to strike deals with us
Logisitics and shipping are not going to run smoothly
There will not be €350M/week for the NHS.
The border in Northern Ireland is a big deal and can not be solved easily.
Technology does not yet exist to solve customs checks issues.
Many companies are going to close down and move their business abroad.

Please stop repeating this BS of democracy being rail roaded when JRM and Farage both spoke before the last referendum that even if the vote was to remain, the fight would go on.