Peregrinus wrote: » OK. I get this. A few thoughts. 1. What NI actually wants is no hard(er) border either between NI and RoI or between NI and GB. That, obviously, would be the best outcome for NI, and I think Unionists and Nationalists would both feel that. 2. That, I suspect, is the reason, or a part of the reason, why NI voted to Remain. 3. I admit to harbouring the unworthy suspicion that there may be some in NI who voted to Leave because, contrary to what I say above, they actually do want a hard(er) border with RoI, or other concrete measures which in some way elevate or prioritise British identity/connections with GB over Irish identity/connections with RoI. I’m talking here, obviously, of people who dislike the GFA and the settlement constructed upon it. I could be wrong. I hope I am. 4. Even given the Leave outcome of the referendum, it was still possible to proceed with Brexit on terms that didn’t require either border to be hardened, but the choice was made not to do that. 5. Right. Leaving unionism and nationalism aside, and trying to be dispassionate, if NI is to be forced into a situation where it must choose between a hard(er) border with RoI and a hard(er) border with GB, which should it prefer? I’d argue that it should prioritise keeping open the border with Ireland because, for a variety of reasons, the harder border with GB, unwelcome as it is, does less damage to NI, to the GFA and to the peace settlement than the harder border with RoI. It’s the lesser of two evils. (I can expand on this if you want.) 6. All the signs are that public opinion in NI favours the backstop, which suggests that I’m not alone in that analysis. 7. Still, regardless of which choice is eventually made, I think people in NI - nationalist or unionist - are entitled to be angry that they are forced to put up with the lesser evil when they didn’t have to be faced with any evil at all. Even if NI were allowed to choose which evil they consider the lesser (and, NB, you probably won’t be) NI is still damaged by the process and the outcome. And, if I were a unionist, I’d be feeling very strongly that (a) this is not good for the Union, and (b) the people who have forced NI into this position are playing fast and loose with the Union. 8. There’s a couple of issues here: (a) In the decision to hold a Brexit referendum, and in the framing and conduct of the referendum, no thought was given to the particular concerns of NI, or to the health of the Union. (And this is true of the Union with Scotland and well as the Union with NI.) Those who attempted to raise such concerns were ignored or marginalised. (b) After the referendum, given the nature of the Leave campaign, HMG had a wide discretion as to the kind of Brexit it would seek to implement. They didn’t have to choose a form of Brexit that must damage NI and that must damage the Union; a Brexit that would force the choice of which border to harden - other models were available. But they chose it anyway. And they chose that not in the interests of the UK (obviously) or even in the interests of Great Britain or of England, but in the interests of trying to avoid a split in the Tory party. (c) The lesson from all this is how little NI counts for in the deliberations and decisions of at least the present UK government. And, obviously, that’s a lesson that, once taken on board, must tend to damage the Union. It’s richly ironic that the Conservative and Unionist Party, in alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party, has done more to damage and weaken the Union in three years than the IRA managed in thirty, but that’s how it is. I’d expect unionists to be depressed, angry and resentful of that. 9. So, putting myself in the shoes of a unionist, as you suggest, how do I think a unionist should feel? Three thoughts: - First, it may be a bit late now, but on the question of Brexit a unionist should either have adopted a remainer position or favoured a Brexit that did not put NI in the present invidious position. Or a unionist could have been a remainer in the referendum campaign and then pivoted to favouring such a Brexit in light of the result. - Secondly, as already suggested, a unionist is entitled to feel angry at the disdain for NI, and for the health and well-being of the Union, shown by HMG and by the Leave movement. - Thirdly, we are where we are. If a choice must be made, a unionist should favour keeping the RoI border open and accepting a hardening of the GB border because (a) this does less immediate damage and (b) the hardening of the GB border will be less permanent; it will be easier to remedy in years to come. And both of these are, on balance, better outcomes for the Union.
murphaph wrote: » Nationalists by and large did not vote for this mess. The protestant, unionist people did. Brexit was close run. Those votes mattered immensely in getting Brexit over the line. Now you are crying over milk your people spilled themselves.
Enzokk wrote: » Result - Remain 56% - Leave 44%. There is your political mandate on what is best for your country.
downcow wrote: » If you replicate your argument to roi then those living in Connaught could say their country voted against abortion.
downcow wrote: » Everyone just needs to wise up and trust each other.
downcow wrote: I can’t respond to all of above as I’m just typing on my phone. But let me take a few briefly. I understand why you are concerned that border is being used by brexiteers i genuinely believe it is not. But do you understand that I believe very many remainers are abusing the gfa to suit their needs and threatening violence. There will be no significant violence no matter what the outcome. It’s over. Well at least for another generation I can’t predict beyond that. So stop trying to use fear against a community who suffered 30 years of violence - I actually never hear this argument up here because people know the reality
downcow wrote: » I can’t respond to all of above as I’m just typing on my phone. But let me take a few briefly. I understand why you are concerned that border is being used by brexiteers i genuinely believe it is not. But do you understand that I believe very many remainers are abusing the gfa to suit their needs and threatening violence. There will be no significant violence no matter what the outcome. It’s over. Well at least for another generation I can’t predict beyond that. So stop trying to use fear against a community who suffered 30 years of violence - I actually never hear this argument up here because people know the reality
downcow wrote: » You talk of anger against gb. The thing we are angry about is that many of us took a big step and voted for gfa for peace and now we see roi supported by Europe using it for their own agenda
downcow wrote: » Do you realise you are asking NI residents to allow a settlement that could place us in a position for all time where EU make our rules but we have no MEPs and no democratic way to influence those rules. It’s hard to find that outside of a few countries like n Korea Would you accept signing up to such for your country?
downcow wrote: » Everyone just needs to wise up and trust each other. Dump the backstop and work out an arrangement that works for both UK and Eu with special attention to the needs of roi and NI
downcow wrote: » But Eu blocked that discussion from day one as they want to make an example of UK so no one else tries to leave.
downcow wrote: » Maybe in a decade we roi also get out it will ease problems at the border.
Zubeneschamali wrote: » Eh, no, the only constituency that voted against abortion was Donegal, which is in Ulster, not Connacht.
Peregrinus wrote: » 7. So important question becomes, what is May’s Plan C? If she secures the assent of the DUP but not of the ERG, the deal will be voted down again, and at that point May has to decide whether she will hew towards crash-out Brexit, or opt for revoking Art 50 or trying for a second referendum. From here point of view these are all appalling options; but she will just has to choose which is the least appalling.
downcow wrote: » Zubeneschamali wrote: » Eh, no, the only constituency that voted against abortion was Donegal, which is in Ulster, not Connacht. Ok so the point is the same.
Peregrinus wrote: » It’s already the case, downcow, that more than half of the terrorist incidents recorded ever year in the whole of Europe happen in NI. I would very much hope that we will never see a return to what we saw in the 70s, 80s and 90s. But I wouldn’t share your confidence that we won’t suffer more violence. This is not something we can ever be complacent about
Skelet0n wrote: » Do you understand the difference between a constituency and a constituent country?
downcow wrote: » Do you understand that there are two internationally recognised nations on these Islands - UK and ROI It would actually be a really helpful starting point I if I knew folks on here understood that - Even the EU understands that So do you?
downcow wrote: » Do many on here genuinely not understand or are they pretending to not get it. How is it ok to put checks right through the middle of a country (Irish Sea) but not ok to have any checks whatsoever at an international border (roi / NI)??
downcow wrote: » You really need to take a step back from this spin. My country voted out.
Here we are. the same old stuff again. Without checking dates i cant be completely accurate but I understand there have been 3 killings claimed to be troubles related in NI in last decade plus. two were prison officers killed by republican druggies because they were unhappy with their treatment in prison. The most recent killing was a few months ago and was exported from your little drug war in Dublin which has killed far more in the last 2 years on this island than all the so-called terrorists put together in the last 2 decades. Lets try to be realistic!
downcow wrote: » You talk of anger against gb. The thing we are angry about is that many of us took a big step and voted for gfa for peace and now we see roi supported by Europe using it for their own agenda Do you realise you are asking NI residents to allow a settlement that could place us in a position for all time where EU make our rules but we have no MEPs and no democratic way to influence those rules. It’s hard to find that outside of a few countries like n Korea Would you accept signing up to such for your country? Everyone just needs to wise up and trust each other. Dump the backstop and work out an arrangement that works for both UK and Eu with special attention to the needs of roi and NI But Eu blocked that discussion from day one as they want to make an example of UK so no one else tries to leave. Maybe in a decade we roi also get out it will ease problems at the border.
“Put simply, Northern Ireland outside the EU could not prevent free movement and continue with an open North/South Border. Not only does Northern Ireland rely on EU exports to a greater extent than nearly every other region of the UK, 50,000 jobs here are linked to EU trade,”
"There's been a free travel area between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland for, I think, getting on for 100 years, There's no reason at all why that should cease to be the case." Northern Ireland farming relies heavily on EU subsidies, but Mr Johnson said NI farmers would be no worse off outside the EU and "in many ways better off". "You would be able to target the subsidy and we'd be getting money back from the EU that currently goes to Brussels and goes on heaven knows what,"
"I believe that the land border with Ireland can remain as free-flowing after a Brexit vote as it is today, There is no reason why we have to change the border arrangements in the event of a Brexit because they have been broadly consistent in the 100 years since the creation of Ireland as a separate state. It's in the interest of both countries to keep an open border and there's no reason for that to change if the people of this country were to exercise their freedom to vote to leave the EU."
"one of our really challenging issues . . . will be the internal border we have with southern Ireland"
"I am confident that actually the two nations and the (European) Commission between them will be able to solve this because we really want to, because the technology is better than it was 20 years ago and because we all understand the value of it. We are not going to do anything which jeopardises the peace process."
“This referendum is about politics, it’s not about business, investment or trade any more than the argument that Britain should join the euro was.”
downcow wrote: Do you understand that there are two internationally recognised nations on these Islands - UK and ROI It would actually be a really helpful starting point I if I knew folks on here understood that - Even the EU understands that So do you?
downcow wrote: » There is serious whataboutery going on here. I am simply stating what i understand as facts. ie 1)to all intense and purpose the troubles are over and the current generation will not lend its support to another murderous sectarian campaign 2) The UK voted out (regions swung both ways) 3) the vote was close both overall and in the regions and therefore we need to work hard to respect both 4) another referendum would be ridiculous. As ridiculous as it would have been for the anti GFA people to call for a new referendum eg at the time we were all watching murderers being released two years in which my have swung it the other way in the North 5) i believe most people, brexiteers included, would accept some sensible additional checks at the Irish Sea - but we need to see some compromise of sharing some checking maybe at NI border and even some at ROI France border. Current ROI position reeks of arrogace and is winding people up 6)NI cannot be in a situation where they are separated from UK with EU making the rules and no democratic representation. Is any of that inaccurate or unreasonable?
downcow wrote: » Do you understand that there are two internationally recognised nations on these Islands - UK and ROI
Leroy42 wrote: » I think, as Pereginus pointed out, that there is too much focus on the potential return to violence. Not that it should be a serious and major part of the discussion, but that it shouldn't be the sole component of any discussion. Not everyone in NI was involved in the violence during the troubles, but even with the vast majority not being involved, the division between the communities was stark. Their was clear division and distrust between NI and ROI, and between ROI and the UK. The GFA has played a massive role in breaking these down (there is more to do). Brexit, and a hard border in particular, has the very real risk of reversing the gains made and returning the NI to the divided country that it used to be. And for what? What will the NI gain from Brexit? I haven't seen anything to say it will gain anything. At best it might only be effected in a small negative way. And one only has to look at the SNP in the HoC to see how representatives are treated when they are of no direct use to the government. Downcow, can you state what you believe the benefits to NI will be from Brexit as I am at a loss and I think most posters on here are as well? It always strikes me as odd that one of the main cries of Brexiteers in taking back sovereignty, and thus Ni leave voters did the same, yet they seem totally fine with Stormont being mothballed, effectively handing over full sovereignty to London!
downcow wrote: » 6)NI cannot be in a situation where they are separated from UK with EU making the rules and no democratic representation.
Zubeneschamali wrote: It's why, when May trash talks the backstop, she talks about its potential impact on our Union if Northern Ireland is treated differently from the rest of the UK.
Silent Running wrote: » With all the talk of taking no deal off the table, my mind drifts back to the bad old days of "no deal is better than a bad deal". Something you no longer hear. The House of Commons has deemed the only deal on the table to be a bad deal, so why is there not a greater push to leave with no deal? That slogan couldn't have been a lie, could it? If so, it would join all the lies told to the electorate over this whole sorry saga. The vote was to leave or not to leave. They voted leave. No talk of deals or red lines or Brino. They just want out. So just go!
downcow wrote: » There is serious whataboutery going on here. I am simply stating what i understand as facts. ie 1)to all INTENTS and purpose the troubles are over and the current generation will not lend its support to another murderous sectarian campaign
downcow wrote: » 2) The UK voted out (regions swung both ways)
downcow wrote: » 3) the vote was close both overall and in the regions and therefore we need to work hard to respect both
downcow wrote: » 4) another referendum would be ridiculous. As ridiculous as it would have been for the anti GFA people to call for a new referendum eg at the time we were all watching murderers being released two years in which my have swung it the other way in the North
downcow wrote: » 5) i believe most people, brexiteers included, would accept some sensible additional checks at the Irish Sea - but we need to see some compromise of sharing some checking maybe at NI border and even some at ROI France border. Current ROI position reeks of arrogace and is winding people up
downcow wrote: » 6)NI cannot be in a situation where they are separated from UK with EU making the rules and no democratic representation. Is any of that inaccurate or unreasonable?
Silent Running wrote: » With all the talk of taking no deal off the table, my mind drifts back to the bad old days of "no deal is better than a bad deal".
