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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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briany

J Mysterio wrote: »

lol, yes.

It will be some sort of Frankenstein of the deal agreed. Just like Boris said: 'take the deal, get rid of the backstop, and then surgically remove the bad bits.

And then... it will be presented to the EU presumably....

A thoroughly pointless exercise, in other words. Would the EU even do the courtesy of reading through a deal with the backstop removed?

Even then, the EU have said they're through negotiating. In the extraneous circumstances that negotiations were to be reopened, I would have to presume it would be for a deal more likely to be mutually agreed than less.

Now, if we had an amendment that shimmied in a 2nd ref, then we'd be talking...

FrancieBrady

Sir Oxman wrote: »

If Ireland (FG reps at the moment) are put under immense pressure to back down on the backstop "permanent" element i.e. akin to Poland's idea/intervention, then it is possible the EU could can kick to avoid a no deal Brexit.
That would give 7 years for a solution to be put in place.
It is not beyond the realms of possibility.
By all accounts, if she gets the backstop modified that way she can get her deal passed,
I'm just saying out loud my fears regarding pressure on us from the EU27 in this, the final 2 months.

But no deal is not off the table.

Theresa said today she will accept the result of an amendment ruling out No Deal. 'If' that happens then there is no pressure on us.
And May has to pressure the EU anyway, not us, she has failed to isolate us.

10000maniacs

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

We make more than enough food to feed the Irish population several times over (UK doesn't), yes there might be increases in prices and/or shortages of processed junk food imported from UK, but people here could do with eating less crap

Breakfast cereals, hot beverage products, biscuits, sauces, cleaning products and toiletries would be severely affected.

johnnyskeleton

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

That's the one (or newer one from Nov or Dec I posted earlier) that shows good exports down to exactly 9% to UK.

You were inaccuate in suggesting that the ratio of uk to eu exports was 9:91.

All our other exports would be affected as other countries outside EU would not know if for example our meat has mad cow disease our our lamb is actually horse from NI

Thats true today. Hasnt stopped them buying our beef to dare.

I offered an alternative, have NI rejoin Ireland. It is less ludicrous than Ireland leaving EU with UK and is part of GFA.

I never suggested Ireland leaving the EU. I suspect you dont want to consider trying to break the impasse because that would be seen as giving in to the EU

johnnyskeleton

prawnsambo wrote: »

2017 is aeons ago. There have been major changes since then. I'm told that the drops will even be greater this year as contracts are not being renewed in January.

Sorry that was the jan tk oct 2018 figure. I mistyped the date.

CelticRambler

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Let's look at the situation right now. If you want to buy Solpadine Max in Belfast, you walk into a pharmacy (or supermarket) pick it off the shelf and then pay for it. If you want to buy it in Dublin, you have to speak to the pharmacist first and satisfy them that you really need it and that you are not addicted to it and they are entitled to refuse to sell it. Ireland has one regulation, the UK has another. As we are both EU members, we are both bound by EU regulations, but in some areas which are not directly covered by EU legislation, we have different regulations.

You are talking about end-customer purchases, not imports. Solpadine - and every other pharmaceutical product commercialised within the EU - is subject to one standard, regulated by the European Medicines Agency (until recently based in London, now relocated ... :rolleyes: ) Whether you buy your Solpadine in Dublin or Belfast, you can be sure that you are getting exactly the same product, and it will work as you expect.

Thanks to the free movement of people and the free movement of goods, you have the right to drive up to Belfast, buy your Solpadine there, and bring it back home to Dublin. The same applies to everything you buy while on holidays in France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Poland, etc. Under your proposal, those souvenirs suddenly become imports, and everything and anything you decide to bring as a present to your family and friends in the rest of the EU become exports. It's bad enough that we're treated as 2nd Class EU citizens under Schengen (because the English just love to queue); it would be humiliating - and intensely damaging for our tourist industry - if people arriving from Ireland had to revert to passing through the Red and/or Green channels.

I suspect you've never met anyone who emigrated to France in the "old days" when you had to present all your household belongings at customs, along with receipts of purchase or a declaration of value for every item? That's what the Brits have voted for, but I don't remember the Irish diaspora in Europe voting for a return to those conditions. :mad:

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

We wouldn't have to be party to any UK trade deals, and we would not have to accept US goods for sale in Ireland. We are talking about where you physically check the goods. And we have made it a political priority that those checks do not take place anywhere near Northern Ireland.

Again, you are seeing this only from the point of view of imports, seemingly mainly for your personal consumption. What you are proposing will make every business in Ireland with actual or potential exports less competitive, because (a) they will no have immediate access to EU27 customers; (b) they will no longer benefit from global certification in markets where the EU has negotiated trade deals; and (c) businesses in Ireland will be saddled with all the customs paperwork that is going to cripple UK businesses from Brexit-day onwards.

If they need to, a customer in any other EU country can switch to an Irish supplier of ingredients or component parts overnight, knowing that their own product or services will be fully EU compliant. Throwing our lot in with the UK means that we lose that advantage immediately. Not only that, but "Brand Ireland" will be tainted by whatever shenanigans the British get up to. Sadly, it is rarely appreciated by the stay-at-home Irish how highly regarded are our standards in foreign markets.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

In 2013 French abatoirs were selling horse meat falsely declared as beef. That happened within the EU.
...
If there was a problem with a perception of poor food being imported from the UK into Ireland, that too could be resolved by regulation.

Funny you should choose that particular example, for two reasons:
(1) Only today, figures published in France show that the French frozen/ready-made meals industry has not recovered from that scandal, with knock-on effects on the wider beef industry.
(2) Which country first identified the problem with French ready-made meals? Ireland.
The regulations governing ready-cooked meals have not changed in any respect - because they were perfectly good, as proved by the Irish inspection programme - but perception is everything, and the French producers continue to pay a hefty price. Your border-in-the-Celtic-Sea idea would leave us at the mercy of a similar scandal in the UK, especially at a time when the loudest voices in England are clamouring for cheap imports from America and other third world countries.

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

Breakfast cereals, hot beverage products, biscuits, sauces, cleaning products and toiletries would be severely affected.

A lot of this is now sourced from mainland Europe. We really are not as dependant on the UK as you might think. Brands might be different, but there won't be shortages.

swampgas

Even if the EU & Ireland agreed to a time-limited backstop, there is no reason to believe that it would be enough to get a deal through.

Had Theresa May lost the vote on her deal by a narrow margin, and had the backstop been the only issue those who voted against her were objecting to, maybe then there would be some merit in considering it. But right now there seems to be no point at all (IMO) backing down on the backstop as both the Brexiteers and those in favour of No Brexit will refuse to back the deal. The Brexiteers bacause they want a hard Brexit, the remainers because they want to stay in the EU.

You can't negotiate with the UK right now. We have to wait until they come to an agreed position amongst themselves or they crash out.

CelticRambler

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Thats true today. Hasnt stopped them buying our beef to dare.

... because we have a border in the Irish Sea for beef. NI is (effectively) part of a united Ireland. Now if only there was a way to extend that protocol to everything else produced and traded in NI ... :rolleyes:

johnnyskeleton

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Now you are being disingenuous (Brexiteers eh) as I never claimed the ratio is 9:91 of uk:eu, maybe you should re read my post it states 9:91 UK:rest of world (including eu) here is the exact sentence

The goods to the rest of the world are not relevant to how we deal with the UK leaving the EU.

Imposing checks in the Irish sea does mean Ireland leaves the Single Market (and hence the EU), the idea is beyond daft

No it doesnt. The Entry Summary Declaration does not need to be lodged, and customs checks, do not need to be performed, at the point of entry, so long as there is a satisfactory mechanism in place to ensure the integrity of the customs union.

You also fail to acknowledge that my solution is less crazier than yours and also solves the Brexit issue

At best a narrow majority of the people of Northern Ireland (and indeed its not exactly overwhelming in the South for that matter) want a united Ireland. Unionists would likely resort to violence if there was a United Ireland over Brexit. Whereas everyone wants to have a functional trading relationship between the EU and the UK, and a backstop to ensure that if a deal cant be reached there is some system in place to ensure that there is no hard border in Ireland. As has often been pointed out, it is hoped by all sides that the backstop arrangements will not be used.

CelticRambler

10000maniacs wrote: »

... cleaning products and toiletries would be severely affected.

When I lived in Kent, the infamous cross-channel booze-cruises were, in reality, mostly cleaning-product-and-toiletries-cruises. You could always tell which family was returning from a day-trip (like ourselves) because the boot of the people-carrier would be packed with toilet paper and kitchen towel. :cool:

Oh, and there was many a cat and dog owner who'd stock up on flea and worm treatments too, because - like your Solpadeine example - they could get them over the counter and very much cheaper in France than in the UK.

Kind of ironic that country that invented and perfected the EU Pet Passport scheme will now be the only European country that doesn't benefit from it. :eek:

Capt'n Midnight

bilston wrote: »

Cross Channel Freight Trade could drop by up 87% for 3-6 months according to a leaked Border Force document on Sky News tonight in a No Deal Brexit.

linky
https://news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-trade-could-drop-by-87-govt-document-warns-11614002

It gets worse when you realise how just how few permits the UK has for truck access to the EU

The haulage industry says only 1,200 annual permits were offered across the UK, but that 40,000 were needed.

12,000 trucks through Dover every day.

In NI it's insane and where are the DUP ??

"On average, we get about 13,000 lorries crossing the border daily. In the north west, on the Coshquin-Bridgend road, there's 800 lorries cross that border crossing per day.

"So 60 permits might just cover two hours worth of journeys across the border on just one border crossing."

CelticRambler

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The goods to the rest of the world are not relevant to how we deal with the UK leaving the EU.

There speaks a true Brexiteer. Our goods, traded with the rest of the world, are traded as EU goods. We are the EU.

We deal with the UK by treating it as a third country, the same as every other third country, and treating whatever comes out of their fields and factories with suspicion until proven otherwise.

fly_agaric

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Thats true today. Hasnt stopped them buying our beef to date.

Not really. That horse meat episode is small fry compared to what could happen if we have an open border with a post hard Brexit UK going down the route of a bonfire of holdover EU regulations + importing from around the world.

You can't test everything and cover all the possible kinds of frauds and scams opened up in such a scenario.
If we still have an open border with UK through the north, any goods coming from here onto the continent (or indeed being exported further afield) will be suspect. People in other EU states (or those who import from us outside the EU) are not going to expose themselves to that. No one is that altruistic (or daft)!

kowtow

CelticRambler wrote: »

I suspect you've never met anyone who emigrated to France in the "old days" when you had to present all your household belongings at customs, along with receipts of purchase or a declaration of value for every item? That's what the Brits have voted for, but I don't remember the Irish diaspora in Europe voting for a return to those conditions. :mad:

No different to Switzerland in the present day, have done it from both inside and outside the EU, out of six trucks none of them was ever delayed at the border. All customs paperwork done in advance, and online. No individual receipts requested or required, and only a cursory inventory document.

CelticRambler

Unless I missed it further up the thread, it looks like nobody else spotted/comment on this snippet of business info, published in the Guardian yesterday:

The high street is awash with negative numbers, from a net 4,400 shop closures in just six months last year to more than 85,000 retail job losses in 2018. EY’s figure is smaller but stark nonetheless: general retailers issued 36 profit warnings during the year, more than any other sector on the London Stock Exchange. This reflects a combination of weak consumer confidence, Brexit uncertainty and the rise of internet shopping.

Project Fear? Maybe, maybe not, but when the Brexiteers argue that several EU states are "struggling" because of their EU membership, it's hard to see how weak consumer confidence and internet shopping can be blamed on Britain's EU membership, nor how British jobs will be "saved" when they've already been lost.

Capt'n Midnight

Akrasia wrote: »

A Tory MP just suggested that the UK should spend the next 18 months ignoring WTO rules because it takes 18 months for the WTO to hold a hearing and penalties aren't retrospective..

Looks nice in the short term , can kicked, but it will come back and bite you HARD.
Here's the BBC take on it.

That means working out how much the UK's border policy has disadvantaged the complainant, and letting them levy higher tariffs on the UK to balance that out.

But by the time that happened it would be 2021 or even 2022, and the WTO still could not actually make the UK change its policy.

But that would surely be a reckless move by the UK at a time when it is trying to persuade other countries to sign trade deals.

First Up

johnnyskeleton wrote:

I do understand it, and the issue is how you enforce the rules, not what those rules are. In any event, as I said above, I doubt the EU would agree to an internal border within the EU, but that's missing the point. The other poster was saying that it would be bad for Ireland and would force Ireland to leave the EU. Not if the EU agrees to it.

Rules for goods entering the EU are applied at points of entry, which are designed and equipped to carry out the necessary checks.

If goods arrive unchecked from (or through) Northern Ireland there are no mechanisms to police them thereafter. Do you seriously expect wholesalers, retailers or government agencies to monitor every truck, warehouse, shop or transit port?

The economy of the EU single market is based on the free movement of materials, components and finished goods, all of which can be relied upon to meet all standards. That allows for specialisation, economies of scale and speed of movement.

Nothing is going to be allowed corrupt or undermine the integrity of that. Ireland is either fully within it, or it is outside. We will be fully supported in our inclusion but there will be no compromise on it.

CelticRambler

kowtow wrote: »

No different to Switzerland in the present day, have done it from both inside and outside the EU, out of six trucks none of them was ever delayed at the border. All customs paperwork done in advance, and online. No individual receipts requested or required, and only a cursory inventory document.

How do those trucks get through when the border is closed to trucks from 9pm till 7am?

Forgive me if I'm sceptical, but as I've been delayed innumerable times at the Swiss border (when using offical crossing points :rolleyes: ) I find it hard to believe that none of those six trucks was delayed, unless the delay had already been built into the travel time.

However, we know that the UK has so far been unable to successfully run a trusted trader pilot project, so when you combine old-fashioned paperwork with restrictions on the free movement of people (which doesn't apply to Swiss transfrontalier journeys), delay is inevitable.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

I think the UK might see the dropping of registration fees as a concession to the EU, and perhaps one that should be met in kind. EU only want to discuss the future relationship though, the deal being done and redlines remaining as they are.

It's 3m once off payments of £65 .

It's only 1% of what the Big Red Bus said was sent to EU every year.

prawnsambo

CelticRambler wrote: »

How do those trucks get through when the border is closed to trucks from 9pm till 7am?

Forgive me if I'm sceptical, but as I've been delayed innumerable times at the Swiss border (when using offical crossing points :rolleyes: ) I find it hard to believe that none of those six trucks was delayed, unless the delay had already been built into the travel time.

However, we know that the UK has so far been unable to successfully run a trusted trader pilot project, so when you combine old-fashioned paperwork with restrictions on the free movement of people (which doesn't apply to Swiss transfrontalier journeys), delay is inevitable.

Yeah, the Swiss border is notorious for delays. What the poster also left out is that it costs to get your goods cleared. You have to pay an agent and each shipment is charged for. So a groupage load is nice money for an agent.

brickster69

"I shall have succeeded in my task if the final deal is so hard on the British that in the end they’ll prefer staying in the EU”: 2016, quoted in this week’s @LePoint.

Sounds plausible, shame it has backfired on a huge scale.

Scoondal

I think Mrs. May will revoke Article 50 on 28 March. Then sometime in April she will send notification to EU of a new Article 50 stating that UK intends to leave EU (giving UK a further 2 years within EU). That is why she is doing nothing now.

Nody

Scoondal wrote: »

I think Mrs. May will revoke Article 50 on 28 March. Then sometime in April she will send notification to EU of a new Article 50 stating that UK intends to leave EU (giving UK a further 2 years within EU). That is why she is doing nothing now.

Beyond the fact it would be illegal based on ruling on A50 all EU would do is give her back the same deal and ignore her.

Strazdas

brickster69 wrote: »

"I shall have succeeded in my task if the final deal is so hard on the British that in the end they’ll prefer staying in the EU”: 2016, quoted in this week’s @LePoint.

Sounds plausible, shame it has backfired on a huge scale.

Seems to be pure hearsay and impossible to prove. This is something Barnier is supposed to have "confided in friends" back in 2016.

Every Brexit Europhobe on Twitter seems to have seized on the alleged comment and think they are quoting from a TV or newspaper interview he gave.

kunst nugget

Scoondal wrote: »

I think Mrs. May will revoke Article 50 on 28 March. Then sometime in April she will send notification to EU of a new Article 50 stating that UK intends to leave EU (giving UK a further 2 years within EU). That is why she is doing nothing now.

That is a cunning plan of Baldrick proportions.

prawnsambo

Scoondal wrote: »

I think Mrs. May will revoke Article 50 on 28 March. Then sometime in April she will send notification to EU of a new Article 50 stating that UK intends to leave EU (giving UK a further 2 years within EU). That is why she is doing nothing now.

It's also not definitively two years. It's two years or until the coming into force of the withdrawal agreement. So the EU could just say, there it is, we've agreed to it, all you have to do is sign and the job's oxo. Then it's pressure from day one.

Water John

May is playing for the options being, her deal or no deal. That is why she is running it as close to the deadline as possible.
It's not complicated, very simple plan, that is Plan A and it will always be Plan A.

prawnsambo

Water John wrote: »

May is playing for the options being, her deal or no deal. That is why she is running it as close to the deadline as possible.
It's not complicated, very simple plan, that is Plan A and it will always be Plan A.

Yep. And the 'Build Your Own Brexit' is another Baldric-like cunning plan to help the clock tick ever closer to the end date. It's a plan of sorts. But it's gambling the house on the turn of a card.

johnnyskeleton

First Up wrote: »

Rules for goods entering the EU are applied at points of entry, which are designed and equipped to carry out the necessary checks.

Unless there is an agreement that the ENS be lodged in a separate customs office. Irish ports can be "designed and equipped to carry out the necessary checks" too!

http://ec.europa.eu/ecip/help/faq/ens1_en.htm

If goods arrive unchecked from (or through) Northern Ireland there are no mechanisms to police them thereafter. Do you seriously expect wholesalers, retailers or government agencies to monitor every truck, warehouse, shop or transit port?

No, but even in a no deal hard border brexit scenario, they still wont check every truck, warehouse etc. Checking the transit ports is a lot easier than monitoring over 200 roads. As for shops, government agencies currently monitor shops, restaurants etc and if goods are being sold jn breach of EU regulations they are fined. Asian sjops are routinely checked for goods smuggled in from China etc.

Youre comparing any solution to the current membership of the EU. You should compare the solutions to a no deal hard border brexit to see which is worse.

The economy of the EU single market is based on the free movement of materials, components and finished goods, all of which can be relied upon to meet all standards. That allows for specialisation, economies of scale and speed of movement.

Nothing is going to be allowed corrupt or undermine the integrity of that. Ireland is either fully within it, or it is outside. We will be fully supported in our inclusion but there will be no compromise on it.

Perhaps, or perhaps in order to achieve a deal with the UK they can accept some checks on goods shipped from Ireland to other EU countries.