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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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tuxy

If their first brexit secatary came out with statments that made it clear he had no idea what the EU was it's no surprise the general public can't get their head around it.

https://twitter.com/daviddavismp/status/735770073822961664?lang=en

It was insanity to allow such a simplistic polling card to be used for brexit

demfad

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why would there be pressure if No Deal is off the table? Theresa's deal suits us fine as does revoking Art 50

I think the Deal may be better for Ireland and Europe medium term.
The UK need to sort out what relationship it wants with the rest of the continent.
This Island is covered with the deal with a new lock on the GFA.
In all liklihood the UK will tend soft in the negotiated deal.

10000maniacs

Akrasia wrote: »

The day after the Brexit vote when the results were announced, the top google search in the UK was the question "What is the EU?"

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-the-eu-is-top-google-search-in-uk-after-brexit-2016-6?r=US&IR=T

The UK media do an absolutely horrible job of informing the public and there absolutely should have been a referendum commission or something similar to send neutral unbiased factual information about the referendum to every single householder in the UK

If people of voting age in the UK don't know what the EU is, then UK media competency is the least of their problems.

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

So 63% of those polled actually know what 'no deal' means, the rest don't know. I have a feeling that of those 63%, a big chunk of them oppose No deal and maybe even support remain.

The people who know the least about politics think 'lets just get on with it' because they're bored of having it on the news, and they think if Britain leaves the EU in March that that's the last they'll hear about it.

One of the biggest 'The people just want us to get on with it' advocates is Theresa May herself. She's charging head first into disaster to appease the most ignorant and least informed people in the country don't know enough about Brexit to know what it is, never mind how they would like it to proceed.

I'm coming around to the idea of a second referendum. A simple binary yes/no question that is an exact replica of the last referendum - Do you want Britain to remain in the EU or leave the EU? I think it's important that the opinion of the people is respected so this referendum would be held in the EU 27 - excluding Britain.

FreudianSlippers

10000maniacs wrote: »

That's what annoys me most about the whole thing. 26% of the UK public don't know the basics. A lot of these are the people that voted in 2016. These should have been spoilt votes in 2016 surely?
They should have been forced to take a 10 question survey before casting their vote.

I saw someone else on Twitter point out it's actually 37% when you factor in the "no idea" / "nobody knows" options (nobody knows is a weird one - objectively someone obviously knows...); that's a pretty staggering amount if the poll can be extrapolated to the larger population.

briany

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If they leave with no deal then surely the first thing they do the next day is form a free trade deal with EU? This goes without saying, that a free trade deal will be in place pretty fast.
This whole backstop makes no sense, as of course the UK will want a trade deal with EU so no border will be needed. A free trade agreement avoids tariffs and some non-tariff barriers.
Brexiters want out of EU, out of Custom Union, but a free trade deal put in place instantly?
The whole thing has none of the benefits of being in EU, and many many drawbacks of being out. The hardcore Brexiters want nothing to do with EU, they seem to want to be the next North Korea, makes no sense. The simply fact is deal or no deal Britain will have a trade deal with EU, and align most if not all regulation with the EU's so that a trade deal can be put in place fast, so the Brexiters dream is but that, a dream, a fantasy. Britain deal or no deal will be very much aligned with EU on trade and policy .

No, they won't be able to form a trade deal with the EU very quickly. The whole point of the WA was to have a provisional relationship in place before the longer-term relationship could be agreed. The Canada-EU trade deal took 8 years from the negotiations to the application.

That's what makes leaving without a withdrawal agreement a pretty crazy thought. They'll be isolated from all other partners with whom they could easily trade (as in trade using a minimum of energy expenditure). Almost every country in Europe will enjoy a better integration of trade than the UK, even countries like Ukraine and Georgia.

seamus

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

TM seems to basically have also said that where EU environmental laws are better environmentally than UK laws, the UK will implement the crux of those laws into legislation.

So... what's the point of Brexit again?

Oh... sounds like they're also waiving the £60 fee for EU nationals to apply to remain in the UK; people who have paid will get refunds.
Another vote on 29th to vote on whatever deal TM can get before then. :rolleyes:

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

TM just admitted that any deal with require regulatory alignment with EU on goods/services and regulatory legislation surrounding that.

The Brexit that people voted for is pointless and impossible.

It really does sound like the UK is trundling on towards a situation where they will not be formally an EU member, but will end up being in almost complete alignment with it. Plan B actually sounds like an even softer version of Plan A.

Which, in the spirit of Brexit is the worst deal they can get, and only marginally better than no deal. For the EU is the best deal we can hope for unless the UK decides not to leave at all.

As well noted by Francie Brady above, if they are declaring "No deal" to be off the table, then they have given up any semblance of leverage they had. The EU wants the UK as a trading partner, but if TM is declaring "We'll do a deal or we won't leave at all", then that puts zero pressure on the EU to cross their red lines.

Akrasia

A Tory MP just suggested that the UK should spend the next 18 months ignoring WTO rules because it takes 18 months for the WTO to hold a hearing and penalties aren't retrospective..

Genius idea, except that the UK has to actually apply the to WTO to accept trading terms under it's membership outside of the EU and it's not such a good idea to be applying to have it's schedule of commitments accepted by the WTO while at the same time planning on completely flouting it's rules and trying to get away with it on a technicality.

The UK's status in the WTO is subject to a vote by WTO members to accept or reject it's new schedule of commitments.

If the UK crash out of Europe, they might have a hard time getting WTO agreement on their share of the EUs Tariff Rate Quotas and Government Procurement Agreements which could lock them out of key markets indefinitely

Everyone thinks 'WTO rules' are the default option but even this option requires international agreement and Britain are doing a wonderful job of pissing everyone off

PeadarCo

BorneTobyWilde wrote:

If they leave with no deal then surely the first thing they do the next day is form a free trade deal with EU? This goes without saying, that a free trade deal will be in place pretty fast. This whole backstop makes no sense, as of course the UK will want a trade deal with EU so no border will be needed. A free trade agreement avoids tariffs and some non-tariff barriers. Brexiters want out of EU, out of Custom Union, but a free trade deal put in place instantly? The whole thing has none of the benefits of being in EU, and many many drawbacks of being out. The hardcore Brexiters want nothing to do with EU, they seem to want to be the next North Korea, makes no sense. The simply fact is deal or no deal Britain will have a trade deal with EU, and align most if not all regulation with the EU's so that a trade deal can be put in place fast, so the Brexiters dream is but that, a dream, a fantasy. Britain deal or no deal will be very much aligned with EU on trade and policy .

Free trade deals take years to negotiate. Look at the Canada EU deal and all the fun with that. The withdrawal agreement is the easy bit. If the UK want a free trade agreement the EU will refer to the withdrawal agreement and then start looking at a trade deal. In the event of a no deal Brexit the EUs bargaining power will only increase. Great for the EU as a whole in terms of pure bargaining power. Bad for the UK given the issues they have faced already and the convulsions those compromises have created in Westminster.

[Deleted User]

I'm losing a bit of confidence in my bet on article 50 being revoked. It's still possible, but the mood in the UK just seems way more leave than I imagined.

10000maniacs

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If they leave with no deal then surely the first thing they do the next day is form a free trade deal with EU? This goes without saying, that a free trade deal will be in place pretty fast.
This whole backstop makes no sense, as of course the UK will want a trade deal with EU so no border will be needed. A free trade agreement avoids tariffs and some non-tariff barriers.
Brexiters want out of EU, out of Custom Union, but a free trade deal put in place instantly?
The whole thing has none of the benefits of being in EU, and many many drawbacks of being out. The hardcore Brexiters want nothing to do with EU, they seem to want to be the next North Korea, makes no sense. The simply fact is deal or no deal Britain will have a trade deal with EU, and align most if not all regulation with the EU's so that a trade deal can be put in place fast, so the Brexiters dream is but that, a dream, a fantasy. Britain deal or no deal will be very much aligned with EU on trade and policy .

No this won't happen. What would be the point of the EU at all if this were to happen? Every country in the EU will want to leave and then will demand what the UK got. And countries outside the EU will want those terms too. Two chances of this happening, BorneTobyWilde.

lawred2

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If they leave with no deal then surely the first thing they do the next day is form a free trade deal with EU? This goes without saying, that a free trade deal will be in place pretty fast.
This whole backstop makes no sense, as of course the UK will want a trade deal with EU so no border will be needed. A free trade agreement avoids tariffs and some non-tariff barriers.
Brexiters want out of EU, out of Custom Union, but a free trade deal put in place instantly?
The whole thing has none of the benefits of being in EU, and many many drawbacks of being out. The hardcore Brexiters want nothing to do with EU, they seem to want to be the next North Korea, makes no sense. The simply fact is deal or no deal Britain will have a trade deal with EU, and align most if not all regulation with the EU's so that a trade deal can be put in place fast, so the Brexiters dream is but that, a dream, a fantasy. Britain deal or no deal will be very much aligned with EU on trade and policy .

A trade deal doesn't necessarily mean regulatory alignment for everything.

Or freedom of movement.

Or has anything to do with citizenship rights.

So a trade deal in place does not mean anything necessarily for the existence or not of a border.

ancapailldorcha

One of those things that everyone knew but it's somewhat chilling and unnerving to have it here in print (if you consider Donald Tusk to be a reputable source, that is):

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087356351943188480?s=09

FrancieBrady

demfad wrote: »

I think the Deal may be better for Ireland and Europe medium term.
The UK need to sort out what relationship it wants with the rest of the continent.
This Island is covered with the deal with a new lock on the GFA.
In all liklihood the UK will tend soft in the negotiated deal.

The deal is great for us, not as good as Remain.
It would allow us to break our dependency on the UK market totally in a slightly more cushioned environment.

johnnyskeleton

Skelet0n wrote: »

I can't tell if you're joking?

You want to again become the UK's whipping boy to help dig them out of a mess they made for themselves?
All the while they've shown us nothing but contempt.

Leaving the rhetoric aside, how do we become the UK's whipping boy in that scenario? We are looking for a practical solution to trade with as many countries as possible and avoid a hard border in the North. If that means that we have an open border with the UK and it requires that customs checks happen when goods are moved from Ireland to the rest of the E.U., obviously it is not great, but it could well be the least worst option.

As for them showing us contempt, so what? Let's do what's good for Ireland and let the U.K. act as appallingly as they want!

Podge_irl

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Would it be that bad of an idea? The amount of goods that might seek to enter mainland EU via Ireland from the UK must be very small.

But it would affect everything that was going from Ireland to the EU, not just material coming from the UK. Once the integrity of our own internal market is broken by an open border to NI then every single thing going to the EU will need to be cleared.

Christy42

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Skelet0n wrote: »

I can't tell if you're joking?

You want to again become the UK's whipping boy to help dig them out of a mess they made for themselves?
All the while they've shown us nothing but contempt.

Leaving the rhetoric aside, how do we become the UK's whipping boy in that scenario? We are looking for a practical solution to trade with as many countries as possible and avoid a hard border in the North. If that means that we have an open border with the UK and it requires that customs checks happen when goods are moved from Ireland to the rest of the E.U., obviously it is not great, but it could well be the least worst option.

As for them showing us contempt, so what? Let's do what's good for Ireland and let the U.K. act as appallingly as they want!

What? We lose trade with the EU as goods would be delayed and have tariff checks there. Even then I am not sure how you tell if goods came from the UK or the Republic so our own goods may have yo accept taxes to get to the EU and then we will need to match the UK's taxes for import goods while having no say in how they are set.

Have to accept whatever standards the UK puts on food and other goods (let's be honest here whatever standards the US tells the UK to have). Remember open border means whatever can get sold in the UK will have easy access to the Republic and they are the bigger economy there.

How is that better than no deal? Or no deal and wait for a few weeks till they take the deal that was offered?

Scoondal

As things stand, UK is leaving EU on 29 March with no deal. And nothing is changing according to Mrs. May.
Everyone needs to accept this reality.

Call me Al

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Leaving the rhetoric aside, how do we become the UK's whipping boy in that scenario? We are looking for a practical solution to trade with as many countries as possible and avoid a hard border in the North. If that means that we have an open border with the UK and it requires that customs checks happen when goods are moved from Ireland to the rest of the E.U., obviously it is not great, but it could well be the least worst option.

As for them showing us contempt, so what? Let's do what's good for Ireland and let the U.K. act as appallingly as they want!

I have already explained to you that if we have an open border from a non-eu country it calls into question the integrity of all our exports, not just the ones originating in the UK, the scale of which is huge. Not to mention the standard of produce we end up with for our own domestic consumption.

Mr.Wemmick

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm losing a bit of confidence in my bet on article 50 being revoked. It's still possible, but the mood in the UK just seems way more leave than I imagined.

Am here in the UK, and I don't sense that mood. People are fed up to the back teeth of it, tbh, and most I come across either want a good deal or to remain.

I think there is much fear-mongering going on, threats of hard brexit etc. etc. all part and parcel of how much work is needed to keep the tory party together as one.

eire4

Scoondal wrote: »

As things stand, UK is leaving EU on 29 March with no deal. And nothing is changing according to Mrs. May.
Everyone needs to accept this reality.

I have to agree. I have felt all along that this is what would happen. That come March 30th they would have crashed out of the EU without a deal. Now as to what happens and how long that takes after that is anybody's guess but I have seen nothing from them to suggest that they are even remotely close to getting in touch with reality. It might be that they need the cold hard reality of the utter chaos and mess that a no deal departure from the EU will bring to wake them up from their delusions of grandeur.

Adamcp898

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

One of those things that everyone knew but it's somewhat chilling and unnerving to have it here in print (if you consider Donald Tusk to be a reputable source, that is):

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087356351943188480?s=09

They'll find a way to blame the Lib Dems for everything

johnnyskeleton

Call me Al wrote: »

Yes it would be.
We have asked for none of this. This is not our issue to resolve. We have been told repeatedly by some of those in parliament that there is a solution involving technology right there, and yet the UK have done nothing to source or investigate it. They haven't even feigned any respect towards us by putting their plans and system to tender.

Instead we would end up having to be the nanny for a UK export market the integrity of which is beyond our control, not to mention jeopardising the quality of our own domestic market, and thus the integrity of any and all of our exports.

It isn't a problem of our making, but the realpolitik of the situation is that we are a small nation that can only, at the end of the day, look after our own interests.

Other than feeling that we shouldn't be doing the UK's work for them, surely you accept that being a small nation in a nexus point between larger nations is a boon for trade. I'm not saying we would become the next Hong Kong, but if people want to trade through Ireland and that involves Irish people working in transport, buying and selling, customs checks etc, how is that a bad thing?

Re jeopardising the quality of our own domestic market, the fact that a significant part (roughly 30% by tonnage) of our goods exports to Europe go through the UK in the "landbridge", so Brexit is going to cause trouble for that one way or another.

So the issue is whether a practical solution can be achieved or if it cannot.

Now, I don't know enough about the logicstics of it, so maybe it can't be done. I also would be fairly convinced that the E.U. would object to an internal border in the E.U. just as much as the U.K. object to an internal border in the U.K. But I don't think it should be off the table, and I certainly don't think we should refuse to consider it merely out of a sense of sticking it to the U.K. government because they have handled Brexit so badly.

Akrasia

Scoondal wrote: »

As things stand, UK is leaving EU on 29 March with no deal. And nothing is changing according to Mrs. May.
Everyone needs to accept this reality.

There will be a HOC amendment next week that will demand either an extension to A50 or a revocation of A50 if no withdrawal agreement is passed before 29th of March

If this passes, it will take a crashout off the table as the default scenario and it will mean that TM will have to go to Europe cap in hand requesting an extension or else A50 will be withdrawn and there will be no brexit.

If the EU know that May's hands are tied and the default is now no brexit, then they won't be in any mood to grant an extension of Article 50

If this pans out, it will have been a piece of genius 3 dimensional chess by the remainers in parliament, give Theresa May enough time to negotiate a deal that they know won't pass parliament, and then give her every opportunity to back down knowing that she won't back down, and then swoop in to rescue the UK from the horrors of the hardest of hard brexits in the nick of time.

FrancieBrady

eire4 wrote: »

I have to agree. I have felt all along that this is what would happen. That come March 30th they would have crashed out of the EU without a deal. Now as to what happens and how long that takes after that is anybody's guess but I have seen nothing from them to suggest that they are even remotely close to getting in touch with reality. It might be that they need the cold hard reality of the utter chaos and mess that a no deal departure from the EU will bring to wake them up from their delusions of grandeur.

Parliament will take the reins to avoid a No Deal.

eire4

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Parliament will take the reins to avoid a No Deal.

They may well indeed. I just have had a gut feeling that they will walk off the cliff first before reality sets in.

johnnyskeleton

Call me Al wrote: »

I have already explained to you that if we have an open border from a non-eu country it calls into question the integrity of all our exports, not just the ones originating in the UK, the scale of which is huge. Not to mention the standard of produce we end up with for our own domestic consumption.

You haven't already explained that to me, but do you think that the scale of it is larger than enforcing a hard border with Northern Ireland? Over 200 border crossings vs. a handful of ports! Even leaving the logistics aside, it's certainly far less politically charged.

Regarding calling into question the integrity of all our exports, what you are fundamentally trying to suggest is that the EU would not accept exports from Ireland if there was an open border with the U.K. But lets look at the reality of the situation. No border is completely impenetrable. Drugs, for example, get into the EU and circulate amongst member states all the time. Likewise with non duty paid cigarettes from outside the E.U. There is no way of absolutely stopping these things, all you can do is impose checks. If the E.U. was satisfied with an arrangement , they can hardly complain about it at the same time.

We aren't dealing with good choices. We are dealing with a catastrophic hard brexit or finding some kind of practical solution. Let's not be like the British and pick battles we cannot win. We want to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland at all costs. This means we will need to find compromises in other areas or else accept the mutually assured destruction of no deal. Which is probably what is going to happen in any event.

Enzokk

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Leaving the rhetoric aside, how do we become the UK's whipping boy in that scenario? We are looking for a practical solution to trade with as many countries as possible and avoid a hard border in the North. If that means that we have an open border with the UK and it requires that customs checks happen when goods are moved from Ireland to the rest of the E.U., obviously it is not great, but it could well be the least worst option.

As for them showing us contempt, so what? Let's do what's good for Ireland and let the U.K. act as appallingly as they want!

Surely if we decide to keep the border open with the UK instead of the EU it means we are at the mercy of UK trade deals? The UK will in that scenario quickly have a trade deal with the US and their hormone beef and chlorinated chicken which will have an open border to us and a barrier to the EU.

Would we have a say in the trade deal the UK strikes? Because they will determine what goods are freely allowed into our country in that case.

Scoondal

Akrasia wrote: »

There will be a HOC amendment next week that will demand either an extension to A50 or a revocation of A50 if no withdrawal agreement is passed before 29th of March

If this passes, it will take a crashout off the table as the default scenario and it will mean that TM will have to go to Europe cap in hand requesting an extension or else A50 will be withdrawn and there will be no brexit.

If the EU know that May's hands are tied and the default is now no brexit, then they won't be in any mood to grant an extension of Article 50

If this pans out, it will have been a piece of genius 3 dimensional chess by the remainers in parliament, give Theresa May enough time to negotiate a deal that they know won't pass parliament, and then give her every opportunity to back down knowing that she won't back down, and then swoop in to rescue the UK from the horrors of the hardest of hard brexits in the nick of time.

An extension of Article 50 will only be allowed if there is a UK election or a new referendum. It is already the UK law that they will leave EU on 29 March.
UK can withdraw their Article 50 meaning that they decide not to leave EU. I don't think that they can revoke Article 50 and do it again in April with another 2 years of negociation.

First Up

johnnyskeleton wrote:

If that means that we have an open border with the UK and it requires that customs checks happen when goods are moved from Ireland to the rest of the E.U., obviously it is not great, but it could well be the least worst option.

The UK takes 13% of our exports. The rest of the EU takes 39%.

We are world leaders in attracting FDI. One of our main attractions to foreign direct investors is our membership of the Single Market. It would be a serious act of economic self harm on several levels to do anything to reduce that.

In any case there is no possibility that the EU will damage the integrity of the Single Market or limit any member's participation in it.