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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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lawred2

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I suspect all Katya's sources in the commission are British, and she is not looking critically at what she's being fed. She had been extremely poor on Brexit since this all began anyway. She won't be winning awards on her coverage.

Every time I've seen her report on the BBC I've been utterly bemused by her imbalanced and clearly erroneous reporting. Obviously the BBC are forcing an editorial bias but still no justification for such poor analysis and reporting.

She clearly has very few sources outside of British channels. Either because she's no made the effort to build them or as a journalist there is little regard for her in European channels..

Bit of both probably.

FreudianSlippers

JRM doubling down this morning on LBC saying that "no deal" is the most likely and that people's vote is a non-runner. I take everything he says with a massive pinch of salt, but I think he is correct in his mindset of where the Tory party are at the moment.

MrMusician18

seamus wrote: »

Katya Adler has been pushing a strongy one-sided narrative of late. Same person who last week that got pulled up on claiming that Varadkar was on shaky ground at home - i.e. that his brexit hardline was weakening his support. Her defence was that she worded it badly and she meant the opposite - that he was holding onto the backstop in order to maintain home support.

Clearly based on her recent tweets though, the original meaning was the implied meaning. She's pushing the narrative that the reason a deal can't be reached is EU failures and intransigence, and it's the EU in trouble if a deal can't be reached.

I suspect all Katya's sources in the commission are British, and she is not looking critically at what she's being fed. She had been extremely poor on Brexit since this all began anyway. She won't be winning awards on her coverage.

seamus

Katya Adler has been pushing a strongy one-sided narrative of late. Same person who last week that got pulled up on claiming that Varadkar was on shaky ground at home - i.e. that his brexit hardline was weakening his support. Her defence was that she worded it badly and she meant the opposite - that he was holding onto the backstop in order to maintain home support.

Clearly based on her recent tweets though, the original meaning was the implied meaning. She's pushing the narrative that the reason a deal can't be reached is EU failures and intransigence, and it's the EU in trouble if a deal can't be reached.

FrancieBrady

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

But like many posters have written on this thread: she will blame Ireland and NI problem for not allowing her a clear exit, so extend A50.. through no fault of her own. Bless.

What choice does she have? Brexit is undeliverable.

It is if they had any faith or courage in their convictions of the UK's stated place in the world.

They are afraid to Brexit is the bottom line here.

Mr.Wemmick

rusty the athlete wrote: »

I doubt it. She must have repeated at least 100,000 times since A50 passed that "We will be leaving the SM, .. the CU .. on March 29th 2019". The hole she has dug herself into over his is simply too deep to get out of now.

But like many posters have written on this thread: she will blame Ireland and NI problem for not allowing her a clear exit, so extend A50.. through no fault of her own. Bless.

What choice does she have? Brexit is undeliverable.

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

EU apparently don't want her over.
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1087280640465293313

Although Katya Adler seems to be coming from an odd angle, maybe one of her sources it trying to dictate her narrative as this is an odd thing to say, for which she has been pulled up on.
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1087280315939332096

What an odd thing to say.

She has made up this idea of a blame game, then when there is no evidence of it, comes up with a reason as to why the blame game (which she made up) hasn't happened!

Maybe, and based on the applause that Barnier received last week would appear to be the case, the EU think that Barnier did a great job. And of course, as can be seen from the fact that they gave in on the UK wide CU against Barniers initial insistence against it, that the EU were very much involved.

It seems Ms Adler seems to be of the view that Barnier has done a solo run and since the UK won't agree to the deal he has failed.

Which of course completely misses the point that the EU has already stated it is happy with the deal and ready to ratify and therefore the failure lies only with TM and her failure to sell the deal at home.

How Barnier can be blamed for that is a strange concept.

Leroy42

rusty the athlete wrote: »

I doubt it. She must have repeated at least 100,000 times since A50 passed that "We will be leaving the SM, .. the CU .. on March 29th 2019". The hole she has dug herself into over his is simply too deep to get out of now.

Well one thing that we can be sure of with TM, is that whatever her previous position makes no impact on what her final position will be.

Peregrinus

Hurrache wrote: »

EU apparently don't want her over . . .

Although Katya Adler seems to be coming from an odd angle, maybe one of her sources it trying to dictate her narrative as this is an odd thing to say, for which she has been pulled up on . . .

Not wanting May to come over makes perfect sense. Indeed, logically, she shouldn't want to go; she should just pick up the phone. Face-to-face meeting between May and the EU leaders haven't generally gone well, and she ends up angry and humiliated. That's unlikely to help matters just now.

rusty the athlete

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I will travel to Brussels today to ask the EU 27 to extend the A50 period until July."

I doubt it. She must have repeated at least 100,000 times since A50 passed that "We will be leaving the SM, .. the CU .. on March 29th 2019". The hole she has dug herself into over his is simply too deep to get out of now.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What time is she in the HOC?

About 3:30, I think.

Hurrache

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I am going to guess something like "In light of the continuing negotiations, and the new strand involving UK and Ireland directly discussing the border on the island of Ireland, and to allow space for creative solutions to the very difficult issues which have dogged these negotiations, I will travel to Brussels today to ask the EU 27 to extend the A50 period until July."

EU apparently don't want her over.
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1087280640465293313

Although Katya Adler seems to be coming from an odd angle, maybe one of her sources it trying to dictate her narrative as this is an odd thing to say, for which she has been pulled up on.
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1087280315939332096

FrancieBrady

What time is she in the HOC?

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

(b) they are laying a smokescreen to buy time for/distract attention from some quite different move.

I am going to guess something like "In light of the continuing negotiations, and the new strand involving UK and Ireland directly discussing the border on the island of Ireland, and to allow space for creative solutions to the very difficult issues which have dogged these negotiations, I will travel to Brussels today to ask the EU 27 to extend the A50 period until July."

Dyr

I think if we've seen anything it's that May has no plan other than carry on regardless and hope that someone, anyone at this stage, will blink.

She's tried it with the DUP, she's tried it with the ERG, she's tried it with the EU and now she's trying it with us.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

Lets try to follow this 'bi-lateral talks' idea. So UK and Ireland have talks, aimed at coming to a specific arrangement which removes the need for a backstop. But even if the EU, through the prize of continued peace in NI, allowed this to happen, they are no going to allow it to be the agreement for the entire EU.

The UK has always seen Ireland as a source of leverage in negotiations with the EU. The hope is that the desire for a borderless Ireland will outweigh everything else and "force" the EU to concede a free trade deal without strings attached. This means mutual recognition of standards and allow the UK strike its own deals elsewhere - a sort of "honorary membership" of the bits of the EU they like.

This was seen a mile off and years ago in Brussels and across the 27.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Donaldson's appeal for talks?

Not Donaldson's appeal in particular. Newspaper reports of a plan to make a bilateral UK/IRL agreement as an alternative to having a backstop in the WA.

Leroy42

Any response from Leo, and IMO he shouldn't even bother, should be to simply say that if they are wanting talks to agree on how exactly to implement that December agreement, entered into by the PM, then he is open to that as they need to work together to aid the transfer.

But talks can only start on the basis that that agreement is adhered to.

Although, I think even something like will only be used against the EU and Leo so probably better to simply stay out of it as clearly the UK are flailing around looking for anything and wil drag the nearest person under with them to try to save themselves.

prawnsambo

Peregrinus wrote: »

All of which leads me to the unworthy suspicion that these stories are designed to give the appearance of movement, of action, of flexiblity, without there being any corresponding reality. Which means:

(a) the UK government still has no clue what it is going to do; or

(b) they are laying a smokescreen to buy time for/distract attention from some quite different move.

Option (a), if I'm honest, is much more likely, but option (b) is at least a possibility.

If you look at this through the prism of what's gone before, it can only be more of the same. I.e, all internally focused and designed to get May's deal through parliament. So it's continual kite flying to see what will persaude the rest of her party to support her deal. It's just more of the UK negotiating with itself and whether or not it's deliverable doesn't matter.

Call me Al

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Jeffery Donaldson being very conciliatory about 'talks' with the Irish Gov. on RTE right now. I mean, really conciliatory.

I think option B may be a kick to touch strategy. 'Ongoing talks' etc etc. An attempt to isolate and pressure Dublin maybe. Divide and conquer.

Beware the Greeks, even those bearing gifts.

We all know the DUP aren't supporters of the GFA.

They've actively lobbied against it, are vocal in their support of Brexiteers who believe it has outlived its use, and would be as well pleased to see the back of it.
If we start down the path of opening this can of worms it will not end well.

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I can see the EU (Dublin will find it hard to rebuff this approach) allowing talks between Dub-London and DUP-Dublin in their own effort to be seen as being 'positive'. I think they will find it very hard to finally shut the door.

Dublin won't go for it.

franglan

There is an agreement on the table - the EU has said it's the only deal there will be and perhaps surprisingly I don't think they'll budge on this! May went to Europe looking for amendments in the past month and returned with nothing. Even some of the British media coming out that she'll go to Europe again. I simply cannot fathom why they are not getting this.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

Coveney and Helen McEntee have already knocked them back. No point in wasting time at this stage of the game.

Donaldson's appeal for talks?

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is quite extraordinary that everytime Raab comes on spouting some other idea that he isn't immediately simply asked why he didn't do that when he was Brexit minister and how he allowed it to get to this mess. He will of course try to shift the blame to TM, at which point ask him how he backed her in the NC motion when she stabbed him in the back.

Instead he is allowed talk about what should/could happen as if he has never been involved. He is now a hurler on the ditch, complaining about how terrible the manager is, when he has just been sent off after giving away the winning penalty!

Well he did take over from David Davis and there is enough stories out there on how much he worked on Brexit when he was in charge. Is it any wonder Theresa May took over the negotiations? In saying that even if he was given more responsibility there is no way he would have made any difference, positively, to the talks.

Leroy42

First Up wrote: »

Almost certainly it is aimed at the UK audience but to hear Raab spout such nonsense with a straight face doesn't inspire confidence.

But it seems that there is still a consituency in the UK that still doesn't get the whole point of the EU and the single market. The real worry is that some of them are in Westminster - and in cabinet.

It is quite extraordinary that everytime Raab comes on spouting some other idea that he isn't immediately simply asked why he didn't do that when he was Brexit minister and how he allowed it to get to this mess. He will of course try to shift the blame to TM, at which point ask him how he backed her in the NC motion when she stabbed him in the back.

Instead he is allowed talk about what should/could happen as if he has never been involved. He is now a hurler on the ditch, complaining about how terrible the manager is, when he has just been sent off after giving away the winning penalty!

Leroy42

Lets try to follow this 'bi-lateral talks' idea. So UK and Ireland have talks, aimed at coming to a specific arrangement which removes the need for a backstop. But even if the EU, through the prize of continued peace in NI, allowed this to happen, they are no going to allow it to be the agreement for the entire EU.

So in effect it will be limited to NI and possibly trade with Ireland/UK. So in effect the UK are saying that they are opening to treating NI differently than the rest of the UK, which if I am not mistaken is the entire basis for the DUP raging against the deal.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

Ireland will not attempt to persuade the EU to let us make a bilateral deal with the UK that would keep the border open and, if we did ask, the EU would not agree. And HMG knows all this. The most likely explanation for HMG's stance here is that it's an attempt to play to the gallery.

Almost certainly it is aimed at the UK audience but to hear Raab spout such nonsense with a straight face doesn't inspire confidence.

But it seems that there is still a consituency in the UK that still doesn't get the whole point of the EU and the single market. The real worry is that some of them are in Westminster - and in cabinet.

Peregrinus

Hurrache wrote: »

That struck me too actually when I heard him and was expecting his usual bluster. Reality may be dawning. He did talk about how good the GFA is, but weren't the DUP not in favour?

Still aren't. The DUP have never signed the GFA, and are not parties to it.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It is a kick to touch excercise. Stall the whole end date. Everyone knows it will achieve and can't achieve anything but that.

It is the only sense I can see from the weekend developments. It will be interesting to see if Dublin will strongly rebuff the efforts.

Coveney and Helen McEntee have already knocked them back. No point in wasting time at this stage of the game.

Incidentally, Jim Pickard (who is Chief Political Corr for the FT) is tweeting that his Downing Street sources are telling him that the Telegraph story (on the proposal to rewrite the GFA) is "nonsense". But it's a racing certainty that the Telegraphs story also comes from Downing St sources, so it seems that Downing St is planting these stories to see what kind of reaction they get and, if the reaction is unfavourable, is then denying them.

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Jeffery Donaldson being very conciliatory about 'talks' with the Irish Gov. on RTE right now. I mean, really conciliatory.

That struck me too actually when I heard him and was expecting his usual bluster. Reality may be dawning. He did talk about how good the GFA is, but weren't the DUP not in favour?