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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Beheretomorrow

For those that were at open houses today. How did it go?

My observations are:
- 3 of 5 houses viewed were back on the market having fallen through late last year. All in the 700k - 850k bracket
- One was a new build that hasn't sold since first been listed in Oct
- Number of viewers was reasonable overall, one house at the top of the range was very busy. The others were average to slow... defined by number of times I had to stop on the stairway to let ppl by and general busy-ness....by no means in anyway scientific a method!

There was an interesting article in the independent today about how expensive doer upers are post sale agreed and how sales are falling through as a result.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

For those that were at open houses today. How did it go?

My observations are:
- 3 of 5 houses viewed were back on the market having fallen through late last year. All in the 700k - 850k bracket
- One was a new build that hasn't sold since first been listed in Oct
- Number of viewers was reasonable overall, one house at the top of the range was very busy. The others were average to slow... defined by number of times I had to stop on the stairway to let ppl by and general busy-ness....by no means in anyway scientific a method!

There was an interesting article in the independent today about how expensive doer upers are post sale agreed and how sales are falling through as a result.

Did you make any offers / was there any feedback from agent regarding movement in price ?

Zenify

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

There was an interesting article in the independent today about how expensive doer upers are post sale agreed and how sales are falling through as a result.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/how-much-is-your-house-worth/end-of-the-doerupper-rising-cost-of-renovations-cripples-demand-for-ageing-homes-37727313.html

"For example in Dublin 12, prices of bungalows have fallen from €540,000 last year to €460,000 today."

Conor Gallagher, of Gallagher Quigley, added: "At least a dozen times last year I encountered a situation where someone had purchased a property in need of refurbishment and had their architect go in for planning, only to discover by the time that the planning came through, the cost of the work was being priced at up to 50pc more than estimated."

"Meantime, where new homes were constructed, adjoining second hand home values suffered more than in the past."

That last point is really interesting. I wonder what these mega sites like Cherrywood will do to the well established areas around it.

Pussyhands

When is Cherrywood coming on stream and how many houses is there?

kippy

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah the OP was asking for what people should do and as I said this is just the advice I would give if someone was asking me, to be able to in good concscience say I’m not giving advice to someone I know which I think might put them in a bad situation. Then the general public do what they like and many people might give a lot less restrictive advice to their friends (in any case I think it is interesting to look at it from the perspective of: would I tell that to a friend in good conscience?)

Just to give the rational behind it though: I am taking into account that the likelihood of an economic recession and a property price drop is a lot higher in the coming years than it was let’s say 3-5 years ago. The high deposit is to limit chances of negative equity in case of a price drop so the people don’t get stuck, as well as reducing the share of monthly repayments which is interests (and thus to limit the impact of a potential interest rate hike, which helps a lot to satisfy my second condition). And the the budget safety limit is to make sure it is very unlikely for people to be stuck and unable to pay as during a recession and when property prices are falling it would be much more problematic then during a phase of economic growth and property prices inflation.

I do hear your argument about salary increases though and it is valid, but I would have seen it as more relevant a couple of years ago at the beginning of the upwards economic cycle we are currently in, as I think everyone agrees it is very likely to end in the next year or two and the question is more when will it end and how bad/long the subsequent downwards cycle will be. So I would have given people slightly different advice 5 years ago.

I suppose there are a number of angles to look at it from but if you are concerned that at some point you might lose your primary income stream, the best place to be when and if that happens is actually with a mortgage and a roof over your head - whether this is right or wrong is irrelevant I think.

Personally I think if the house is in the right location and is a decent size for your future needs I think the option to buy, if it is there, with your "current" income is the best option.

Zenify

Pussyhands wrote: »

When is Cherrywood coming on stream and how many houses is there?

4,300 new homes, most of them are to rent. They start coming on the market next year.

mcbert

Zenify wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/how-much-is-your-house-worth/end-of-the-doerupper-rising-cost-of-renovations-cripples-demand-for-ageing-homes-37727313.html

Conor Gallagher, of Gallagher Quigley, added: "At least a dozen times last year I encountered a situation where someone had purchased a property in need of refurbishment and had their architect go in for planning, only to discover by the time that the planning came through, the cost of the work was being priced at up to 50pc more than estimated."

I wonder is this a Dublin or country wide phenomenon? Builders upping their quotes for smaller jobs, because of demand? I'm wondering about Galway city specifically...

Zenify

mcbert wrote: »

I wonder is this a Dublin or country wide phenomenon? Builders upping their quotes for smaller jobs, because of demand? I'm wondering about Galway city specifically...

I'd say anything happening in Dublin will be closely followed by Galway.

I think builders have upped their price a bit but I'd say people have always underestimated the price of renovations. Reason for the sales falling through could be that they are finding it harder to get the extra cash from the banks, with them running out of exemptions...?

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Well people need to buy something. If building prices are going up, new builds are obviously also going to get more expensive. The figure in the indo was strange anyway I thought, they quoted bungalows in one part of Dublin falling by 100 k plus. If prices were falling that fast across the board for 2nd hand homes there'd be more than the indo talking about it.

Their own "how much is your house worth" piece shows price growth in nearly all areas anyway which contradicts their previous point.

The indo is a rag at the best of times to be fair but it seems like they have an agenda to push new houses here. Cairn etc must pay for a lot of advertising space.....

kippy

mcbert wrote: »

I wonder is this a Dublin or country wide phenomenon? Builders upping their quotes for smaller jobs, because of demand? I'm wondering about Galway city specifically...

It's difficult to get good trades people (indeed it has been throughout the past decade).
I can see it even more difficult if you want a relatively small job done as there are bigger and more economical jobs out there for trades people now.
What you tend to see happening is people pricing these jobs extremely high to avoid getting them. If they get them, it's a bonus.

dudara

The doer-upper part of the market is interesting. It’s hard to get money from the bank as part of the mortgage, which will deter people. Also the extra time & effort required will deter people.

As a result, the houses are less likely to sell, potentially will sit there longer, possibly getting worse. What ultimately will happen to these houses?

We did buy a doer-upper last year. It’s perfectly liveable in as is, but it does need work to boost energy efficiency, rewiring, new rads etc. I want to extend, so it makes sense to wait until we’re ready and do most of it at once. That will hopefully be within the next 2 years.

dubrov

dudara wrote:

As a result, the houses are less likely to sell, potentially will sit there longer, possibly getting worse. What ultimately will happen to these houses?

The price drops until it gets to a point where it becomes economical for people to buy them and do them up.

dudara

It will be economical for people with cash or access to funds for the renovation.

For a lot of average people, they will need the bank to give the funds for the renovation in addition to the mortgage, and unless the banks start making that easier, I can’t see it changing much.

mkdon

Zenify wrote: »

4,300 new homes, most of them are to rent. They start coming on the market next year.

any expectation for these cherrywood homes to have any impact on property market? Any similar ones coming on the market this year?

GAA Beo

Zenify wrote: »

4,300 new homes, most of them are to rent. They start coming on the market next year.

Doesn't sound like the makings of any sort of community if it is at all rental. No owner occupiers? Not going to help families looking for affordable housing. But still it should slightly ease the pressure on the rental sector hopefully.

Bob24

GAA Beo wrote: »

Doesn't sound like the makings of any sort of community if it is at all rental. No owner occupiers? Not going to help families looking for affordable housing. But still it should slightly ease the pressure on the rental sector hopefully.

Yeah, I guess they will fill-up with young professionals sharing home and working in Cherrywood/Leopardstown/Sandyford.

mkdon

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah, I guess they will fill-up with young professionals sharing home and working in Cherrywood/Leopardstown/Sandyford.

anyone know the percentage that will be rentals and percentage of owner occupiers?

hmmm

The Cherrywood idea just looks like bad planning to me. These are going to be full of twenty and thirty somethings, all of them commuting, and the place will be a ghost town during the day. They'll all then be getting on the LUAS, and trying to get into jobs in the city.

These apartments should be built in the city centre where people of that age want to live, not in the middle of nowhere in the suburbs. The suburbs should have a mix of owner occupiers who want houses with gardens, and the only apartment blocks should be spacious apartments for elderly downsizers or families.

[Deleted User]

hmmm wrote: »

These apartments should be built in the city centre where people of that age want to live, not in the middle of nowhere in the suburbs. The suburbs should have a mix of owner occupiers who want houses with gardens, and the only apartment blocks should be spacious apartments for elderly downsizers or families.

Great point........ But when I lived within walking distance of the city centre (Pheonix park area) about 2-3 years ago they were building semi-d's beside me :pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:......:rolleyes:

GAA Beo

hmmm wrote: »

The Cherrywood idea just looks like bad planning to me. These are going to be full of twenty and thirty somethings, all of them commuting, and the place will be a ghost town during the day. They'll all then be getting on the LUAS, and trying to get into jobs in the city.

These apartments should be built in the city centre where people of that age want to live, not in the middle of nowhere in the suburbs. The suburbs should have a mix of owner occupiers who want houses with gardens, and the only apartment blocks should be spacious apartments for elderly downsizers or families.

There doesn't seem to be any pubs around there either. It sounds quite grim to me, but maybe as a short term thing it wouldn't be too bad if the rent was reasonable (which I really doubt it will be). I imagine it was probably very difficult to build this type of development in any of the other more settled communities nearby. For starters far smaller developments have been scuppered by NIMBY planning objections.

Bob24

hmmm wrote: »

The Cherrywood idea just looks like bad planning to me. These are going to be full of twenty and thirty somethings, all of them commuting, and the place will be a ghost town during the day. They'll all then be getting on the LUAS, and trying to get into jobs in the city.

These apartments should be built in the city centre where people of that age want to live, not in the middle of nowhere in the suburbs. The suburbs should have a mix of owner occupiers who want houses with gardens, and the only apartment blocks should be spacious apartments for elderly downsizers or families.

Pretty high risk of becoming a ghetto in the medium to long term as well.

It’s all fine when the economy is good, the apartments are new and attractive, and there are a lot of professional jobs within easy reach. But in a few decades when the apartment show their age, with a high concentration of housing and no local life/services, what happens if good employment prospects in the area also become grim? We just need to look at continental European cities who did similar things in the 50s and 60s to see why the problems might be.

Zenify

Cherrywood is going to have a lot of office space too. I'm assuming a lot of people will be living and working in the same area. Just like Sandyford. Sandyford is like a ghost town on weekends but Cherrywood is going to have lots of parks and shops which may keep people around after work.

Hines is a pretty big developer who know what they're doing and I think it is the developer who are renting the properties they build. I think worst case scenario it becomes like Sandyford on the weekends, I dont see such a nice place turning into a "ghetto". It has some great amenities around like dun laoghaire and the mountains and people will always want to live there. Ps I dont work for Cherrywood

Cuddlesworth

hmmm wrote: »

The Cherrywood idea just looks like bad planning to me. These are going to be full of twenty and thirty somethings, all of them commuting, and the place will be a ghost town during the day. They'll all then be getting on the LUAS, and trying to get into jobs in the city.

These apartments should be built in the city centre where people of that age want to live, not in the middle of nowhere in the suburbs. The suburbs should have a mix of owner occupiers who want houses with gardens, and the only apartment blocks should be spacious apartments for elderly downsizers or families.

Not that I disagree with everything, but Cherrywood, Carrickmines and Sandyford are all or will be large centres of dense employment. And that section of the Luas is under utilised.

CalRobert

dudara wrote: »

It will be economical for people with cash or access to funds for the renovation.

For a lot of average people, they will need the bank to give the funds for the renovation in addition to the mortgage, and unless the banks start making that easier, I can’t see it changing much.

For me, at least, I was sale agreed with AIP etc. on a 2 bed doer-uppoer with a side garden in Pimlico a bit over a year ago. I clearly didn't understand how finance worked because I figured I could live in it as-is and do it up over time.

The surveyor's report came back saying it needed 80 grand in work and the bank said I needed to show I had an extra 80 grand lying around in cash (I didn't). I was really frustrated given how much of the work in the report was subjective - they claimed it needed 5000 euro for 5 new internal doors (honestly the existing ones were fine...), lots of essentially aesthetic improvements, etc.

The sale fell through. Still frustrated by that.

Bob24

Zenify wrote: »

Cherrywood is going to have a lot of office space too. I'm assuming a lot of people will be living and working in the same area. Just like Sandyford. Sandyford is like a ghost town on weekends but Cherrywood is going to have lots of parks and shops which may keep people around after work.

Hines is a pretty big developer who know what they're doing and I think it is the developer who are renting the properties they build. I think worst case scenario it becomes like Sandyford on the weekends, I dont see such a nice place turning into a "ghetto". It has some great amenities around like dun laoghaire and the mountains and people will always want to live there. Ps I dont work for Cherrywood

I get what you’re saying, but I while I agree with you if we are talking at a 10 or 20 years timeline, I would point at the fact that the exact same things you mention could have been said from the 50s to the 70s about then new Parisian suburbs which are now infamous for their crime level, high unemployment, and being racial/religious ghettos.

When those were built they were the young worker’s paradise for those who couldn’t afford to live in Paris itself as alongside cheaper rents people liked the comfort of new apartments, good rail links to the city, and the local environment which at the time was not bad at all (playgrounds/parks, growing local economic activity, etc); and many of the now most infamous suburbs where on the rail route from central Paris to the then new CDG international airport with even more economic prospect because of this (nowadays they schedule more and more direct trains from the airport to Paris which don’t stop in those suburbs partly because international travelers feel unsafe and are getting mugged on the trains which serve local stations).

Ps: I am not involved in any anti-Cherrywood campaign either and I am not saying it will necessarily end up that way, but I think it is worth keeping those points in mind. Hopefully I am proven wrong though.

Cuddlesworth

Bob24 wrote: »

Ps: I am not involved in any anti-Cherrywood campaign either and I am not saying it will necessarily end up that way, but I think it is worth keeping those points in mind. Hopefully I am proven wrong though.

Looking at Ireland's history, large clumps of social housing are the most likely to become "bad" areas. And if you wanted to break that down further, large clusters of poor people(in a relative sense) are prone to larger amounts of criminality in that specific area and its surroundings.

Cherrywood is located in a very upmarket area and for now, large areas of rentals in the city only attract either AirB&B or high paid office staff.

awec

Zenify wrote: »

Cherrywood is going to have a lot of office space too. I'm assuming a lot of people will be living and working in the same area. Just like Sandyford. Sandyford is like a ghost town on weekends but Cherrywood is going to have lots of parks and shops which may keep people around after work.

Hines is a pretty big developer who know what they're doing and I think it is the developer who are renting the properties they build. I think worst case scenario it becomes like Sandyford on the weekends, I dont see such a nice place turning into a "ghetto". It has some great amenities around like dun laoghaire and the mountains and people will always want to live there. Ps I dont work for Cherrywood

It'll be worse than Sandyford.

All things considered Sandyford is actually an excellent location.

awec

Zenify wrote: »

Cherrywood is going to have a lot of office space too. I'm assuming a lot of people will be living and working in the same area. Just like Sandyford. Sandyford is like a ghost town on weekends but Cherrywood is going to have lots of parks and shops which may keep people around after work.

Hines is a pretty big developer who know what they're doing and I think it is the developer who are renting the properties they build. I think worst case scenario it becomes like Sandyford on the weekends, I dont see such a nice place turning into a "ghetto". It has some great amenities around like dun laoghaire and the mountains and people will always want to live there. Ps I dont work for Cherrywood

It'll be worse than Sandyford.

All things considered Sandyford is actually an excellent location with more going for it than Cherrywood.

Zenify

awec wrote: »

]

It'll be worse than Sandyford.

All things considered Sandyford is actually an excellent location with more going for it than Cherrywood.

What is Cherrywood lacking compared to Sandyford?

I'm really shocked about this. I never expected people to be saying negative things about Cherrywood. There's over 4,000 new homes right on a luas stop and the m50, near the coast and dart, lots of employment with offices and some already established like Dell.

This is what we need to solve our housing crises thousands of homes in strategic locations with lots of parks built around the houses. Transport and employment at the doorstep.

awec

Zenify wrote: »

What is Cherrywood lacking compared to Sandyford?

I'm really shocked about this. I never expected people to be saying negative things about Cherrywood. There's over 4,000 new homes right on a luas stop and the m50, near the coast and dart, lots of employment with offices and some already established like Dell.

This is what we need to solve our housing crises thousands of homes in strategic locations with lots of parks built around the houses. Transport and employment at the doorstep.

Well for one thing it's much closer to town and places like Dundrum.

I'm not saying anything negative about it, it's much needed housing, but I'd disagree that it's better than Sandyford. Sandyford has a bit of an unfair reputation.