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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Akrasia

Silent Running wrote: »

You have to love the notion that the German car companies would lose the UK business. Does even the most manic leaver really believe that Mercedes, BMW and Audi drivers will buy some Chinese or American no-name tat to replace them? Not a chance that this will happen.

The badge snobbery in the UK is even worse than here. They will just pay more to drive the chosen badge. They might even see the higher cost as elevating the status of the marque.

The sales of Rolls Royce, Bentleys, and Jaguars might increase a little from the more patriotic brexiteers, much to the joy of BMW who own Rolls Royce, Volkswagen who own Bentley, and TATA who own Jaguar

Necro

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When the time comes (a border poll) and it will, the rest of the UK will be encouraging and incentivising a UI.

Really? I don't think it will be that simple tbh. For instance, you'd need a massive change in politics in England alone, never mind NI.

Now, this could happen with Brexit and the Tories getting smashed and broken up - however Labour are not a realistic threat to them, no matter how badly the country is run with Corbyn at the helm.

The way I see it, it would take a second Scottish referendum and them leaving the union, rejoining the EU and actually beginning to thrive again before a UI is even conceivable tbh.

There's a whole lot that needs to happen before we can start to think of that in my opinion.

road_high

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Lotus are making cars in China now.

Where is the light at the end of the tunnel for UK car making ?

Turkey is in the CU and a lot cheaper.

Uk car industry had been doing very well- once Eu membership is removed though it takes away one of the key pillars it’s been built on, not to mention JIT production. I can’t see Nissan or Honda staying there without free access as per now. They all have plants in continental Europe as well.

prawnsambo

Silent Running wrote: »

You have to love the notion that the German car companies would lose the UK business. Does even the most manic leaver really believe that Mercedes, BMW and Audi drivers will buy some Chinese or American no-name tat to replace them? Not a chance that this will happen.

It's one of those straw men that crop up all the time. It's built on the notion that 'somehow' the EU will 'punish' the UK for leaving by not selling them anythig. And it's further confused by the notion that tariffs stop imports. So the EU are imposing tariffs on the UK and the German car manufacturers will scream blue murder because they want to keep selling their cars to the UK.

And of course the Trumpian view that putting tariffs on things means that it costs the exporting country more. I explained the error in this to a brexiteer on twitter a while ago and was met with a deafening silence as the cognitive dissonance imploded his brain.

FrancieBrady

Necro wrote: »

Really? I don't think it will be that simple tbh. For instance, you'd need a massive change in politics in England alone, never mind NI.

Now, this could happen with Brexit and the Tories getting smashed and broken up - however Labour are not a realistic threat to them, no matter how badly the country is run with Corbyn at the helm.

The way I see it, it would take a second Scottish referendum and them leaving the union, rejoining the EU and actually beginning to thrive again before a UI is even conceivable tbh.

There's a whole lot that needs to happen before we can start to think of that in my opinion.

A border on the island of Ireland is all that needs to happen IMO.

Necro

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A border on the island of Ireland is all that needs to happen IMO.

I mean, a lot of us would like to think so, of that there is no doubt. But I don't think it's going to be that simple in all honesty.

Infini

Necro wrote: »

I mean, a lot of us would like to think so, of that there is no doubt. But I don't think it's going to be that simple in all honesty.

The border alone will antagonise people expecially in how haphazardly it crosses through various villages etc but the economic impact as well will be like a one two punch to the region and those combined with a stable EU country just south might tip the scales entirely

DOCARCH

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When the time comes (a border poll) and it will, the rest of the UK will be encouraging and incentivising a UI.

Can see it now!

Big red bus travelling round GB....with PM, Boris Johnson, at the wheel....

'We send NI £211 million a week - lets fund our NHS instead.'

AFAIK, subvention to NI is £11bn per year!!! :eek:

Shelga

Listening to Hilary Benn, Anna Soubry and Dominic Raab argue amongst themselves on the Andrew Marr show about what kind of deal would be acceptable to them, you would think it’s June 24th 2016.

They are leaving in 68 days!

Every time I see this type of exchange, I think no deal is more and more likely.

FrancieBrady

It's going to be another fascinating (in the car crash sense) week of watching the political system of the UK grapple with itself.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0120/1024336-brexit/

Enzokk

judeboy101 wrote: »

There are nearly 2.5 billion people driving on LHS; people forget most of south and east Africa, Indian subcontinent and Japan.

And how many cars from the EU is exported to those markets? I am not saying they will stop producing RHD vehicles but you have to look at whether it is cost effective for them to do that. Luckily it seems that these days its not a big issue whether you produce a RHD or LHD vehicle like it would have been maybe 30 years ago.

kippy

Enzokk wrote: »

And how many cars from the EU is exported to those markets? I am not saying they will stop producing RHD vehicles but you have to look at whether it is cost effective for them to do that. Luckily it seems that these days its not a big issue whether you produce a RHD or LHD vehicle like it would have been maybe 30 years ago.

I think people are getting a bit sidetracked here. There's no reason EU manufacturers won't continue to export cars to Britain after Brexit so I don't see this being a issue that needs worry.....

murphaph

Cars are designed differently these days. The body shell is typically the same. The dashboard, steering rack and a few other bits are different but not something that manufacturers lose a fortune over, so the EU will not let them reduce their RHD offerings post Brexit and as already noted, the UK market for EU vehicles will not close. It may reduce as the UK economy contracts and tariffs make EU cars more expensive, but it won't disappear.

Bit cynical

Shelga wrote: »

Listening to Hilary Benn, Anna Soubry and Dominic Raab argue amongst themselves on the Andrew Marr show about what kind of deal would be acceptable to them, you would think it’s June 24th 2016.

They are leaving in 68 days!

Every time I see this type of exchange, I think no deal is more and more likely.

Most likely, however, they would request an extension of A50 which would give them time to negotiate a new deal.

Infini

Bit cynical wrote: »

Most likely, however, they would request an extension of A50 which would give them time to negotiate a new deal.

Which isn't guaranteed though as this all comes down to Britain having to decide what it wants. There's no point in extending A50 unless there's a substantial shift on the British side but they're effectively paralyzed by indecision and incompetence. Even the EU wont kick this can down the road (EU parlimentary elections primarily) and everyone is tired of this pantomime as well. The more likely scenario is once faced with a perilous crash out scenario the Brits will have to decide whether to jump off that cliff and wreck their country or swallow their pride and admit they were wrong in this whole debacle promising the undeliverable and cancel A50 because that's their only definitive OUT right now from all this.

This whole debacle is an excercise in idiocy, ignorance and human stupidity and honestly theres times when its not worth arguing with idiots because they simply refuse to learn or listen and have to get beat up before realising they're wrong (needlessly too).

Bit cynical

Infini wrote: »

Which isn't guaranteed though as this all comes down to Britain having to decide what it wants. There's no point in extending A50 unless there's a substantial shift on the British side but they're effectively paralyzed by indecision and incompetence. Even the EU wont kick this can down the road (EU parlimentary elections primarily) and everyone is tired of this pantomime as well. The more likely scenario is once faced with a perilous crash out scenario the Brits will have to decide whether to jump off that cliff and wreck their country or swallow their pride and admit they were wrong in this whole debacle promising the undeliverable and cancel A50 because that's their only definitive OUT right now from all this.

I agree with you however if the EU were to grant an extension, it would not be in order to help the UK it would be because some countries will be quite badly effected by a disorderly exit.

Leroy42

Raab is out doing the rounds today. Some highlights:

UK would be in a better & stronger position after a No deal as the EU would need a deal.
Coveney is far more open to getting rid of the backstop than the 'less moderate' Varadkar
EU need to change the negotiation team as it about time the politicians will allowed get on with it.

Separately, the Plan B seems to consist of making a bilateral deal with Ireland, despite the fact that Ireland is not even allowed, under CU rules, to do that or that it wouldn't be in our long term interests.

Leroy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

I agree with you however if the EU were to grant an extension, it would not be in order to help the UK it would be because some countries will be quite badly effected by a disorderly exit.

How would granting an extension deal with that, rather than simply put it back? Time is not, has not, been the problem.

At every stage the UK has been dragged into any position. The only reason they agreed to the December Deal was because the EU refused to move to stage 2. Once the UK felt they had got movement they simply ignored the agreement.

May has wasted that last 6 weeks on a pointless postponement of the vote. She wasted months on the Chequers deal, which as soon as it emerged was written off by everyone.

TM is still continuing with the position that only she knows best and any compromise must come for others "for the sake of the nation".

Moving the A50 deadline will only give the UK the room to put off any decision for even longer.

20silkcut

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's one of those straw men that crop up all the time. It's built on the notion that 'somehow' the EU will 'punish' the UK for leaving by not selling them anythig. And it's further confused by the notion that tariffs stop imports. So the EU are imposing tariffs on the UK and the German car manufacturers will scream blue murder because they want to keep selling their cars to the UK.

And of course the Trumpian view that putting tariffs on things means that it costs the exporting country more. I explained the error in this to a brexiteer on twitter a while ago and was met with a deafening silence as the cognitive dissonance imploded his brain.

Tariffs take money off the customer and give to the exchequer?

No money is actually lost to the importing country. It’s just a tax designed to cut sales of the imported item? Does that decline in sales not cost the exporting country in the long run, if they don’t replace their markets. There probably is a significant cost implied in changing markets also.
Retaliatory tariffs obviously level up the situation. But the end result is a loss of wealth on both sides?

Irishmale0399

Leroy42 wrote: »

Raab is out doing the rounds today. Some highlights:

1. UK would be in a better & stronger position after a No deal as the EU would need a deal.
2. Coveney is far more open to getting rid of the backstop than the 'less moderate' Varadkar
2+3. EU need to change the negotiation team as it about time the politicians will allowed get on with it.

Separately, 4. the Plan B seems to consist of making a bilateral deal with Ireland, despite the fact that Ireland is not even allowed, under CU rules, to do that or that it wouldn't be in our long term interests.

1. If they believe it let them get on with it. They have done a wonderful job up till now.
2. The backstop has been turned down by the UK government...there problem not that of the EU. The worst case is a border to N.Ireland. Set one up and wait a few years....wont take long until the Scots and NI want out of the UK and back into the EU.

3. No need to change anything. Deal is on the table....if they dont like it...go shopping somewhere else.

4. The plan B from the EU should be to call their bluff and tell them to rev up and Fcuk right off with their games.

The general opinion here in Germany is that they need the EU more than the EU needs them. I asked a few days ago......what can the UK do that no other EU state can?? What do they produce that the EU needs and cant produce themselves???

The UK government is on its knees in a corner and are trying to wiggle out. The EU has to keep them right there where they are.....if not other member states will want out with a soft deal.

Capt'n Midnight

Akrasia wrote: »

The sales of Rolls Royce, Bentleys, and Jaguars might increase a little from the more patriotic brexiteers, much to the joy of BMW who own Rolls Royce, Volkswagen who own Bentley, and TATA who own Jaguar

Over 90% of Rolls were exported last year , similar numbers for the rest.

BTW Where is Waterford Crystal made these days ?

Infini

Bit cynical wrote: »

I agree with you however if the EU were to grant an extension, it would not be in order to help the UK it would be because some countries will be quite badly effected by a disorderly exit.

The thing is its only worth granting an extention if its going to lead somewhere. Right now though theres complete denial and even elements of being in the twilight zone over there they are completely convinced that somehow, someway they're of significant importance in Europe and somehow Europe will bend at the last minute. Realisically they wont as they cannot compromise on core tenants of the EU for the sake of a soon to be former member whos trust and honesty is seriously questionable these days.

Macron is right about how the UK has completely toxic politics and the rest of Europe is going to be better off without them while they're like that. The truth is the UK needa a hard look in the mirror because all this is a result of their countries policy failures and inability to adapt.

The EU members would probably extend if theres serious movement in the end but if not and its just gonna be more of the same opinions will likely be of the mind that its better to tackle this problem by the horns than kick the problem down the road.

Capt'n Midnight

20silkcut wrote: »

No money is actually lost to the importing country. It’s just a tax designed to cut sales of the imported item? Does that decline in sales not cost the exporting country in the long run, if they don’t replace their markets. There probably is a significant cost implied in changing markets also.
Retaliatory tariffs obviously level up the situation. But the end result is a loss of wealth on both sides?

There would only be a loss in wealth on both sides if neither had a third option.

For most of what the UK exports there is an alternative in the EU or in countries the EU has a free trade agreement with. ( Except Jet engines, but they have very long contracts so not directly comparable )

The UK won't have as many alternatives.
The only way to get fresh food from outside the EU/EFTA would be to fly it in, or back to the bad old days of long-distance live exports.

The US is going "America First" tariffs.
The EU has clout. A UK needing a trade deal doesn't.

Lemming

Leroy42 wrote: »

Raab is out doing the rounds today. Some highlights:

UK would be in a better & stronger position after a No deal as the EU would need a deal.
Coveney is far more open to getting rid of the backstop than the 'less moderate' Varadkar
EU need to change the negotiation team as it about time the politicians will allowed get on with it.

So, the UK to not budge (i.e. give nothing) and for the EU to do all the moving (again), in the hope that something exposes itself to be exploited by the UK government.

Why, or how, did anyone consider Raab to be a political titan? Unless the Tory party is that incestuous that he is considered the cream of the crop, I fail to see how anyone could put him on a pedestal and not question their own intelligence.

Capt'n Midnight

Bit cynical wrote: »

I agree with you however if the EU were to grant an extension, it would not be in order to help the UK it would be because some countries will be quite badly effected by a disorderly exit.

The EU have already announced some unilateral stuff to allow EU citizens and companies to adjust to a Hard Brexit.

Unilateral. No deals with the UK. Solely granted by the EU and can be retracted without notice when no longer needed.

So yes there is a managed Hard Brexit. But it's managed by the EU.

prawnsambo

20silkcut wrote: »

Tariffs take money off the customer and give to the exchequer?

No money is actually lost to the importing country. It’s just a tax designed to cut sales of the imported item? Does that decline in sales not cost the exporting country in the long run, if they don’t replace their markets. There probably is a significant cost implied in changing markets also.
Retaliatory tariffs obviously level up the situation. But the end result is a loss of wealth on both sides?

Yes, that's a possibility. The point i'm making is that there's a fundamental misunderstanding of who actually pays the tariff. How it balances out depends on how much the importing country depends on the goods and whether or not there's a cheaper source (and that includes shipping and other costs).

Trump notoriously said that China would be paying the tariffs he imposed. This is the head wrecking level of understanding I'm talking about.

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

Coveney is far more open to getting rid of the backstop than the 'less moderate' Varadkar

And Coveney knocks that on the head.
https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1086968338717335558?s=19

Seems their plan B is to just flat out lie. Faisal just destroys Raab in his thread below.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1086921072333725696?s=19

Dyr

Necro wrote: »

The way I see it, it would take a second Scottish referendum and them leaving the union, rejoining the EU and actually beginning to thrive again before a UI is even conceivable tbh.

There's a whole lot that needs to happen before we can start to think of that in my opinion.

I always chuckle when I see people attempting to put a list of prerequisites on a border poll in the hope they can long finger it to oblivion.

Events have a habit of unfolding quite quickly once in motion, as Irish history (and Brexit) has shown

road_high

If Raab really believes all that ****e about No Deal why is he still discussing deals? Surely if that’s the best option that you’re going to thrive under, you’d be well on your way to getting that underway ASAP. Not wasting time discussing with those evil EU bureaucrats

prawnsambo

Bambi wrote: »

I always chuckle when I see people attempting to put a list of prerequisites on a border poll in the hope they can long finger it to oblivion.

Events have a habit of unfolding quite quickly once in motion, as Irish history (and Brexit) has shown

It's coming out as the top option in polls considering a hard brexit. Back in 2016 there was 26% support for a UI. Early 2018 it hit 42%, September 2018 52% and in early December it was 60% if a hard brexit. So yes, it's only going one way. Which is why I find the DUP attitude unfathomable.