Brexit Discussion Thread VI

prawnsambo wrote: »

The withdrawal agreement is not a trade deal. This fact seems to have escaped an entire country, including its government and parliament.

Which is the point of what I said. Are you saying that Ireland has missed this?

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Which is the point of what I said. Are you saying that Ireland has missed this?

Doesn't seem to be the point you were making. You were suggesting trade negotiators do what May and Robbins were doing.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Even though more German-made passenger cars are exported to the UK than to any other country?

Yes.

The Brits with money will pay top dollar for Audi's, BMW, Mercs and Rollers.

Opel and VW aren't making much money in the UK because margins company wide are 4%, but in the UK Sterling has collapsed and sales are down even with special offers that eat into profit so probably aren't even making anything close to 4% there. Make more money in other investments.

Also the VDA have no political support for Brexit, but have the whole EU behind them on the US talks.

BTW my earlier post showed that the German Car makers gave up the ghost on Brexit back in 2016 and yet people still regurgitate this nonsense about "they need us" without providing references.

prawnsambo wrote: »

The withdrawal agreement is not a trade deal. This fact seems to have escaped an entire country, including its government and parliament.

At best, it's an entry to a whole new world of years of pain.

70+ trade deals to be replaced and the US and China are on the warpath.

They've to come up with an alternative to the backstop. Like Max-fac or other handwaving. If they can't do that then they have to still pay the EU and in return accept the EU trade deals.

What happens to the Isle of Man or Gibraltar ?

A Hard Brexit would be even worse..
Especially if they píss us enough to trigger our veto.

Seth Brundle

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Even though more German-made passenger cars are exported to the UK than to any other country?

...and what? Will you Brits decide to stop buying German all of a sudden? What will you replace them with? French? Japanese? Korean? American?

prawnsambo wrote: »

Doesn't seem to be the point you were making. You were suggesting trade negotiators do what May and Robbins were doing.

What I meant was that May and Robbins have controlled negotiations with the EU so far. Although I did not add this I am certain that May also intends that they will be in charge of negotiating a trade agreement during the transition period. Unless the UK refuses to be bound by EU regulations it is almost impossible for the UK to have any meaningful negotiations. That's the reason why a lot of us want no deal at the end of the Article 50 period. It gives more certainty, allows us to negotiate an arm's length FTA with the EU and to negotiate and sign agreements with other countries.

Enzokk

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Even though more German-made passenger cars are exported to the UK than to any other country?

By value more cars were exported to the USA from Germany than to the UK.

Leading import countries for motor vehicles from Germany in 2017, by value of exports (in 1,000 euros)

In 2017 26.9B euros were exported to the US and 25B to the UK. But if you add the next two single market countries, France (16.3B euro) and Italy (12.3B euro), that already is more than the UK.

So firstly your first assertion is not correct according to value. Secondly, do you think Germany should favour the UK over the single market when they sell more cars to France and Italy than to the UK?

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

What I meant was that May and Robbins have controlled negotiations with the EU so far. Although I did not add this I am certain that May also intends that they will be in charge of negotiating a trade agreement during the transition period. Unless the UK refuses to be bound by EU regulations it is almost impossible for the UK to have any meaningful negotiations. That's the reason why a lot of us want no deal at the end of the Article 50 period. It gives more certainty, allows us to negotiate an arm's length FTA with the EU and to negotiate and sign agreements with other countries.

I always assumed May and Robbins took over because Davis and Raab proved to be so incompetent that nothing was getting done. I'm pretty sure that's the reason because I haven't seen anything from either of those two to differentiate them from a bucket of hair.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

...and what? Will you Brits decide to stop buying German all of a sudden? What will you replace them with? French? Japanese? Korean? American?

If the tariffs are equalised for the EU and other countries then other countries vehicles will become relatively more attractive. Maybe we could import the American or Chinese manufactured versions of German cars.

bob mcbob

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Actually, a Scottish person has more of a say than an English person as they are overrepresented in the UK parliament. The only reason that you can claim that they do not have a say is because the Referendum was held on a UK wide basis and the majority of the UK voters decided to leave the EU.

How about the UK government re-writing the Scottish devolution agreement.
How does that fit in with your views?

road_high

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Even though more German-made passenger cars are exported to the UK than to any other country?

Funny, the uk is not even the top European market by exports according to this ;
http://www.worldstopexports.com/germanys-top-import-partners/

They need us more than we need them and all that...

road_high

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

If the tariffs are equalised for the EU and other countries then other countries vehicles will become relatively more attractive. Maybe we could import the American or Chinese manufactured versions of German cars.

Almost completely different cars tailored for those markets- they’re not going to alter those lines for a market the size of the UK.

road_high wrote: »

Almost completely different cars tailored for those markets- they’re not going to alter those lines for a market the size of the UK.

The UK could always switch to left hand drive I suppose.

prawnsambo wrote: »

I always assumed May and Robbins took over because Davis and Raab proved to be so incompetent that nothing was getting done. I'm pretty sure that's the reason because I haven't seen anything from either of those two to differentiate them from a bucket of hair.

No, May didn't trust anyone else so she insisted on taking control even though it was not in her remit, she totally undermined the people who were supposed to do the job. Unfortunately, May and Robbins' method of negotiation was to agree to everything the EU asked for and then give away more. May also avoids taking decisions whenever possible.

road_high

prawnsambo wrote: »

The UK could always switch to left hand drive I suppose.

That would be the ultimate surrender to those evil continentals!

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

No, May didn't trust anyone else so she insisted on taking control even though it was not in her remit, she totally undermined the people who were supposed to do the job. Unfortunately, May and Robbins' method of negotiation was to agree to everything the EU asked for and then give away more. May also avoids taking decisions whenever possible.

Yeah, I think that's wishful thinking on your part. Raab just shouted at everyone and they ended up ignoring him and Davis just didn't turn up and instead had the wizard wheeze of trying to end run Barnier by going to all the heads of government who sent him back to Barnier. Rinse and repeat until eventually he got the end run himself.

This 'belief' that somebody else would have got a better deal is purist fantasy that's been in existence since the beginning of brexit. It always fails at the point when it gets to be put down on paper. Like the ERG version that died in childbirth for that exact reason. But that didn't stop them from shouting from the sidelines in ever more hysterical tones.

sandbelter

Strazdas wrote: »

This is a key point. People are assuming NI would carry on being a subsidised region of Ireland in the same way it had been a subsidised region of the UK, but unification would be a complete game changer and would radically alter the NI economy in a different direction.

This is an assumption. I think much of Northern Ireland would end up remarkably like what much of Connaught looks today if we simply followed existing policies.

For successful unification to be realized. Ireland have to tackle how Dublin Centric Irish growth is. Otherwise NI would simply accentuate our existing imbalances. RoI needs to be realistic and realize the North is a 30 year project, you don't overcome 100 of economic decline and the legacy of Thatcher quickly. The GDP per capita disparity is currently is currently 2.5X so it's equivalent of Mexico joining the US.

It can work, but need to be realistic as over a twenty year period as key deficiencies are identifies and solved, yes they will be a unification dividend but its a kick start to a long and necessary journey.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

...and what? Will you Brits decide to stop buying German all of a sudden? What will you replace them with? French? Japanese? Korean? American?

If replaced with Japanese or Korean , will they be produced in the UK or Japan ?

75% - 80% of cars made in the UK are exported so there is no advantage in keeping a factory in the UK when the UK attracts a 10% tariff and your home country has just negotiated a FTA that removes the 10% tariff that used to be on your home factories.

Almost ALL of the UK car industry is foreign owned. The decisions are not made in Blighty.

Of the UK owned only Morgan, Caterham and McLaren left And McLaren shift way more cars than the others combined. And Honda in Swindon can churn out more than all of them can in a year, every single week.

Dyr

sandbelter wrote: »

For successful unification to be realized. Ireland have to tackle how Dublin Centric Irish growth is. Otherwise NI would simply accentuate our existing imbalances. RoI needs to be realistic and realize the North is a 30 year project, you don't overcome 100 of economic decline and the legacy of Thatcher quickly. The GDP per capita disparity is currently is currently 2.5X so it's equivalent of Mexico joining the US.

Belfast and it's Hinterland is actually what Ireland needs to counterbalance Dublin as an economic centre

https://rochdaleherald.co.uk/2018/09/21/theresa-may-negotiates-paying-full-price-for-a-dfs-sofa/

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

What I meant was that May and Robbins have controlled negotiations with the EU so far. Although I did not add this I am certain that May also intends that they will be in charge of negotiating a trade agreement during the transition period. Unless the UK refuses to be bound by EU regulations it is almost impossible for the UK to have any meaningful negotiations. That's the reason why a lot of us want no deal at the end of the Article 50 period. It gives more certainty, allows us to negotiate an arm's length FTA with the EU and to negotiate and sign agreements with other countries.

You can't sign agreements until they've been agreed. Brexit was proposed in 2015 and the UK still doesn't know what it's position is. So what makes you think things will be any quicker with the 70+ countries whose trade deals you are tearing up ?

Bambi wrote: »

Belfast and it's Hinterland is actually what Ireland needs to counterbalance Dublin as an economic centre

What made Belfast an economic power before partition was that they could borrow from banks supported by southern farmers.

That cheap financing went and the Hinterlands of Donegal , Sligo, Cavan , Monaghan , Louth and the rest of the south. So massive economic contraction.

The whole UK may face a similar fate, cut off from EU finances and Hinterland.

BTW the IDA created two thirds of the recent jobs out side Dublin so it's pro-rata down here.

Enzokk wrote: »

By value more cars were exported to the USA from Germany than to the UK.

Leading import countries for motor vehicles from Germany in 2017, by value of exports (in 1,000 euros)

In 2017 26.9B euros were exported to the US and 25B to the UK. But if you add the next two single market countries, France (16.3B euro) and Italy (12.3B euro), that already is more than the UK.

So firstly your first assertion is not correct according to value. Secondly, do you think Germany should favour the UK over the single market when they sell more cars to France and Italy than to the UK?

Sorry, I must be mistaken, I was going on the German Association of the Automotive Industries figures, but what would they know about such matters?

Their figures are here https://www.vda.de/en/services/facts-and-figures/annual-figures/exports.html

They say that in 2017 the exports of German-made passenger cars were:

UK - 768,896
USA - 493,643
China - 258,443
France - 287,077
Italy - 312,341

Of course, the USA and China buy more "German" cars but a lot of them are manufactured locally.

Perhaps you could write to them and tell them that they are wrong, they will be pleased that you've put them right.

I don't think that I've suggested that Germany should favour the UK over the single market but the VDA says that in 2017 1/3 of Germany's passenger car exports to the EU went to the UK.

bob mcbob wrote: »

How about the UK government re-writing the Scottish devolution agreement.
How does that fit in with your views?

Why, because I pointed out that Scotland is overrepresented in the House of Commons?

road_high wrote: »

Funny, the uk is not even the top European market by exports according to this ;
http://www.worldstopexports.com/germanys-top-import-partners/

They need us more than we need them and all that...

The link you provide is for total exports.

An Ciarraioch

New Statesman apparently reporting that May could call a GE for the 28th of February, with an announcement required by Thursday for that deadline?

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/01/three-cabinet-ministers-have-told-their-local-parties-prepare-general

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Sorry, I must be mistaken, I was going on the German Association of the Automotive Industries figures, but what would they know about such matters?

Their figures are here https://www.vda.de/en/services/facts-and-figures/annual-figures/exports.html

They say that in 2017 the exports of German-made passenger cars were:

UK - 768,896
USA - 493,643
China - 258,443
France - 287,077
Italy - 312,341

Of course, the USA and China buy more "German" cars but a lot of them are manufactured locally.

Perhaps you could write to them and tell them that they are wrong, they will be pleased that you've put them right.

I don't think that I've suggested that Germany should favour the UK over the single market but the VDA says that in 2017 1/3 of Germany's passenger car exports to the EU went to the UK.

He said "by value".

A Dub in Glasgo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why, because I pointed out that Scotland is overrepresented in the House of Commons?

and why is that?