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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

What I meant was that May and Robbins have controlled negotiations with the EU so far. Although I did not add this I am certain that May also intends that they will be in charge of negotiating a trade agreement during the transition period. Unless the UK refuses to be bound by EU regulations it is almost impossible for the UK to have any meaningful negotiations. That's the reason why a lot of us want no deal at the end of the Article 50 period. It gives more certainty, allows us to negotiate an arm's length FTA with the EU and to negotiate and sign agreements with other countries.

I always assumed May and Robbins took over because Davis and Raab proved to be so incompetent that nothing was getting done. I'm pretty sure that's the reason because I haven't seen anything from either of those two to differentiate them from a bucket of hair.

Enzokk

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Even though more German-made passenger cars are exported to the UK than to any other country?

By value more cars were exported to the USA from Germany than to the UK.

Leading import countries for motor vehicles from Germany in 2017, by value of exports (in 1,000 euros)

In 2017 26.9B euros were exported to the US and 25B to the UK. But if you add the next two single market countries, France (16.3B euro) and Italy (12.3B euro), that already is more than the UK.

So firstly your first assertion is not correct according to value. Secondly, do you think Germany should favour the UK over the single market when they sell more cars to France and Italy than to the UK?

ThePanjandrum

prawnsambo wrote: »

Doesn't seem to be the point you were making. You were suggesting trade negotiators do what May and Robbins were doing.

What I meant was that May and Robbins have controlled negotiations with the EU so far. Although I did not add this I am certain that May also intends that they will be in charge of negotiating a trade agreement during the transition period. Unless the UK refuses to be bound by EU regulations it is almost impossible for the UK to have any meaningful negotiations. That's the reason why a lot of us want no deal at the end of the Article 50 period. It gives more certainty, allows us to negotiate an arm's length FTA with the EU and to negotiate and sign agreements with other countries.

Seth Brundle

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Even though more German-made passenger cars are exported to the UK than to any other country?

...and what? Will you Brits decide to stop buying German all of a sudden? What will you replace them with? French? Japanese? Korean? American?

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

The withdrawal agreement is not a trade deal. This fact seems to have escaped an entire country, including its government and parliament.

At best, it's an entry to a whole new world of years of pain.

70+ trade deals to be replaced and the US and China are on the warpath.

They've to come up with an alternative to the backstop. Like Max-fac or other handwaving. If they can't do that then they have to still pay the EU and in return accept the EU trade deals.

What happens to the Isle of Man or Gibraltar ?

A Hard Brexit would be even worse..
Especially if they píss us enough to trigger our veto.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Even though more German-made passenger cars are exported to the UK than to any other country?

Yes.

The Brits with money will pay top dollar for Audi's, BMW, Mercs and Rollers.

Opel and VW aren't making much money in the UK because margins company wide are 4%, but in the UK Sterling has collapsed and sales are down even with special offers that eat into profit so probably aren't even making anything close to 4% there. Make more money in other investments.

Also the VDA have no political support for Brexit, but have the whole EU behind them on the US talks.

BTW my earlier post showed that the German Car makers gave up the ghost on Brexit back in 2016 and yet people still regurgitate this nonsense about "they need us" without providing references.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Which is the point of what I said. Are you saying that Ireland has missed this?

Doesn't seem to be the point you were making. You were suggesting trade negotiators do what May and Robbins were doing.

ThePanjandrum

prawnsambo wrote: »

The withdrawal agreement is not a trade deal. This fact seems to have escaped an entire country, including its government and parliament.

Which is the point of what I said. Are you saying that Ireland has missed this?

Irishmale0399

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No.

There is no need to assume conspiracy when there are much more likely and straightforward culprits.

Can you be sure??? They are against a wall in London and need support. A quick reminder of the past might be just what a certain lady and her friends in high places need.

ThePanjandrum

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think that is called a Pyrrhic Victory.

The UK lost their computer industry, the aircraft industry, their nuclear industry and their empire. They became the US poodle because they believed that they had a 'special relationship' that meant they did as they were told.

Britain is the fourth largest IT exporter in the world and the fifth largest aircraft exporter. It lost nuclear manufacturing capabilities through the actions of environmentalists and gave independence to the various colonies.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Because we cannot negotiate trade details until we know on what basis we are negotiating. If, for example, the EU and UK decided to be in a customs union then all negotiations with other countries would have to start again. Nevertheless, the UK has recruited some negotiators although they have not been used in the talks so far. Up to now, May and Oily Robbins have controlled the UK negotiations and they are both Remainers and incompetent.

The withdrawal agreement is not a trade deal. This fact seems to have escaped an entire country, including its government and parliament.

ThePanjandrum

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Also expect the German car exporters to be more focused on the US than the UK.

Even though more German-made passenger cars are exported to the UK than to any other country?

Imreoir2

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Dont get me wrong...no time for this type of sh1t......Irish/Northern Irish people have moved on.

But could this be lets say......professionally trained people??? Could this be a warning to those in London to help TM get her deal over the line??? An inside job??? Wouldnt be the first time the British government have done it.

No.

There is no need to assume conspiracy when there are much more likely and straightforward culprits.

Irishmale0399

NIMAN wrote: »

Hard to blame this on Brexit.

Its just a bunch of scumbags with deluded notions and too much time on their hands.

Dont get me wrong...no time for this type of sh1t......Irish/Northern Irish people have moved on.

But could this be lets say......professionally trained people??? Could this be a warning to those in London to help TM get her deal over the line??? An inside job??? Wouldnt be the first time the British government have done it.

NIMAN

Hard to blame this on Brexit.

Its just a bunch of scumbags with deluded notions and too much time on their hands.

Sam Russell

Folkstonian wrote: »

Which historians, out of interest, believe that Britain came out of the Second World War as a big loser?

Britain paid a huge price in men and money, but there was no easy way to defend itself from Nazi Germany. That’s not the same as losing.

I think that is called a Pyrrhic Victory.

'Another victory like that and we are done for!'

The UK lost their computer industry, the aircraft industry, their nuclear industry and their empire. They became the US poodle because they believed that they had a 'special relationship' that meant they did as they were told.

And they complain of lost sovreignty.

Folkstonian

Strazdas wrote: »

Britain "won" the war in that it wasn't invaded and was on the winning side but the opinion of most historians and economists is that it came out of WW2 as a big loser. The country virtually bankrupted itself with the war effort and the Empire began to quickly disintegrate.

Which historians, out of interest, believe that Britain came out of the Second World War as a big loser?

Britain paid a huge price in men and money, but there was no easy way to defend itself from Nazi Germany. That’s not the same as losing.

CptMackey

bilston wrote: »

BBC reporting a car bomb in Derry tonight. Thankfully no injuries and I'm not saying it's because of Brexit. But it gives an indication of what could happen if a hard border is enforced on this island.

Just seen this. The peace isn't final yet in the north. It's why brexit is so dangerous

Atlantic Dawn

With car bombs timing is everything.

Laois_Man

bilston wrote: »

BBC reporting a car bomb in Derry tonight. Thankfully no injuries and I'm not saying it's because of Brexit. But it gives an indication of what could happen if a hard border is enforced on this island.

I think it's more than probable its purpose was to send a message about a hard border

bilston

BBC reporting a car bomb in Derry tonight. Thankfully no injuries and I'm not saying it's because of Brexit. But it gives an indication of what could happen if a hard border is enforced on this island.

Capt'n Midnight

Igotadose wrote: »

I don't think the UK gave the US the atomic bomb. I think it was a joint effort and the scientists that had moved to the UK for safety (Szilard?) moved on, but the US footed the bill on the atomic bomb. I've seen numbers estimated like $1bn US in 1945 dollars, probably hundreds-of-billions in todays dollars. Only the US could afford that at the time.

The US and UK were allies, sharing radar secrets was the right thing to do, nor do I expect any reciprocity was part of that agreement. Not sure how much it meant ending the war early. That's a discussion for outside this thread..

The point is the US owed the UK a lot more then than now, but still shafted them.

There never was a special relationship.

And Trump is going full "America First"

In more detail :
The UK could have kept all the scientists and early research on the bomb and built it in Canada.

UK centimetre radar transmitters were rugged and a thousand times more powerful than the best US ones made of glass, in addition to detecting aircraft they allowed bombers to locate targets near water in all weather and at night. The proximity fuse took out out the Luftwaffe over Allied territory and Japanese troops in the pacific.

The jet engine didn't become important until after the war, but could have made the UK a fortune when the US rearmed for the cold war.

Igotadose

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

And it also needs to be pointed out that the US forced the UK off the gold standard which doubled the cost of paying back that loan overnight.

This after all the UK did during the war, and handing over the crown jewels of technology like radar and how to build an atomic bomb. The former won the war early.

These are interesting points, and worth another thread. In my opinion, as the US was entering a post-WWII recession, the USG made the calculated choice to collect from the UK, but give the rebuilding Europe a ride, as the UK would not look to the Soviets for assistance. A cold thing to do, but it was done.

I don't think the UK gave the US the atomic bomb. I think it was a joint effort and the scientists that had moved to the UK for safety (Szilard?) moved on, but the US footed the bill on the atomic bomb. I've seen numbers estimated like $1bn US in 1945 dollars, probably hundreds-of-billions in todays dollars. Only the US could afford that at the time.

The US and UK were allies, sharing radar secrets was the right thing to do, nor do I expect any reciprocity was part of that agreement. Not sure how much it meant ending the war early. That's a discussion for outside this thread.

Reason I bring this up is I've heard other older UK citizens whine about how the US collected from the UK but not, say, Germany. I say, so what. If the UK had instead gotten assistance from the USSR, what do you think the Soviets would have wanted in payment for their assistance? The UK couldn't afford to rebuild itself, got a loan, and then had to repay and are envious other loan recipients got a better deal. Such is capitalism. And it's whataboutery when it comes to Brexit, though I'm not denying that emotions are a big part of what's driving the Leave side.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Actually, a Scottish person has more of a say than an English person as they are overrepresented in the UK parliament. The only reason that you can claim that they do not have a say is because the Referendum was held on a UK wide basis and the majority of the UK voters decided to leave the EU.

True only in the sense that the Scottish Tories produced a miraculous comeback from the point of extinction to get a third of the seats the SNP have. However, they are the real reason May is in power.

But what exactly has Davidson and Co. achieved for Scotland other than follow the English party line ? And given that how will they do in a GE ?

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

Britain "won" the war in that it wasn't invaded and was on the winning side but the opinion of most historians and economists is that it came out of WW2 as a big loser. The country virtually bankrupted itself with the war effort and the Empire began to quickly disintegrate.

Finland and the Soviet Union were the other two countries whose capitals weren't conquered during the the war in Europe. A

Everyone in Europe lost WWII.

And it also needs to be pointed out that the US forced the UK off the gold standard which doubled the cost of paying back that loan overnight.

This after all the UK did during the war, and handing over the crown jewels of technology like radar and how to build an atomic bomb. The former won the war early.

Today the US won't be so generous. Look at how the EU-US trade talks over aluminium and steel vs cars is going. Expect the EU to pay slightly more attention to the German car exporters needs than to country that's leaving in two months. Also expect the German car exporters to be more focused on the US than the UK.

road_high

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Alternatively, they could just sign up to the relevant EU legislation on the subject but that would be anathema to Brexiteers.

We all know the line by heart by now- “that would mean taking rules from Brussels blah de blah...”!
Of course it’s the practical obvious solution but far worse than Eu membership as you’ve no influence on said rules!

ancapailldorcha

road_high wrote: »

Take the European Medicines Agency- a very good organization which has been uk based will have to be replicated in the uk for the uk only- at surely a massive cost, that kind of technical expertise and capacity doesn’t come cheap. Same for a whole plethora of other common policies. The whole thing is insanity for a medium sized nation.

Alternatively, they could just sign up to the relevant EU legislation on the subject but that would be anathema to Brexiteers.

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

And these were the crowd complaining about money being wasted on too many bureaucrats in the EU. As you say, the UK will have to hire swarms of new civil servants to try and handle the disaster that is Brexit - the whole point of the Single Market is to cut down on bureaucrats and paperwork.

Take the European Medicines Agency- a very good organization which has been uk based will have to be replicated in the uk for the uk only- at surely a massive cost, that kind of technical expertise and capacity doesn’t come cheap. Same for a whole plethora of other common policies. The whole thing is insanity for a medium sized nation.

Imreoir2

Infini wrote: »

I would counter that the states are hardly losing soviergnty this way more accurately theyre POOLING soviergnty and this has made the EU into the key setter of standards for thrse deals.

It depends on how you view soviergnty aswell, if you view it as having control of your own affairs and the ability to influence the events that impact on your country, then membership of the EU has enhanced the soviergnty of small nations like Ireland.

road_high

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I can't wait to see the look on their faces when they realise that other countries can cherry pick too.

And they won’t be as polite and patient as the EU countries have been the past few years either! UK had massive goodwill and understanding as most in the EU wanted to preserve the relationships as far as possible but that meant the uk putting aside certain red lines- which they’ve been unwilling to do.
They turned that goodwill into exasperation and annoyance now.