road_high wrote: » The work IDA Ireland could do in NI would be phenomenal really. As would same be for the tourist industry. We decry our govt and state bodies regularly but they’ve done a fine job promoting investment into Ireland and brand Ireland the past 25 years. All in all we are a well run country and very stable. NI is a pure basket case by comparison
Strazdas wrote: » This is a key point. People are assuming NI would carry on being a subsidised region of Ireland in the same way it had been a subsidised region of the UK, but unification would be a complete game changer and would radically alter the NI economy in a different direction.
road_high wrote: » Trade deals by their very nature are brutal and protracted- just look at NAFTA and the recent name change to appease Trump- and that’s with three major economies that neighbor each other, share cultural similarities and deep historic ties...can only imagine the difficulties that’ll arise with some English Tory toffs talking down to much more robust economies!! The UK will be coming at them all from a point of desperation whereas it’ll be incidental to most of the other countries. I guess they still have such an entrenched notion of superiority going on in their national psyche that no one can see this!
ancapailldorcha wrote: » Well, the DoIT is brand new. The civil service is completely new to negotiating trade deals so it gets worse whereas the US and China are much more experienced in this regard. The cheap talk of Trump's Scottish mother will evaporate when it comes to negotiations.
road_high wrote: » David McWilliams was talking lately about re unification and his point is that Irish GDP has been rising pretty fast as the economy expands further, the relative burden of the NI subsidy is getting smaller and smaller relative to us thus we’d be more easily able to absorb it. Plus there would be an eventual economic dividend as NI itself is definitely not performing to its full potential under London.
sandbelter wrote: » Nope, I think your underestimate the stakes the game is being played on the continent, they have bigger fish to fry. In Greece I think is still on one pain killer per surgical procedure, Spain still hasn't recovered from the crash, and the right wing is on a rise in Europe, so they are playing for much higher states. From a European perspective Ireland is a country that deals with its problems and moves on (that might comes a shock to some of you). To boot we have the second highest highest GDP per capita in the Eurozone. We'll be paying for NI and also more to the EU, and frankly its a good problem to have, without the EU we wouldn't be this well off. They're be diplomatic support, the odd grant, but I expect we'll do 97% of the heavy lifting. We're seen to have the money ....that how 4% of the EU population ending up with 90% of the EU bailout bill.
Necro wrote: » Here's the thing that I wonder most regarding the possibility of a No Deal Brexit (and apologies if this has been discussed before). Given that the HoC can't even decide what direction to take with a Crash Out looming, how on earth can any of the parties - Labour, Tories - whoever is in charge in the aftermath - be trusted or deemed competent to negotiate trade deals with other nations? Most of the countries that would yield a return to some form of normality after an extended period of hardship and chaos in the UK must be licking their lips at the thought of dealing with... May (Probably unlikely), Corbyn (also unlikely) - or whoever is PM/Foreign Secretary. How will it ever be resolved without an entire revamp of UK politics?
wiggle16 wrote: » There's a certain amount of irony in the fact that, even though the entire idea of Brexit (sans the xenophobia that spawned it) is that the UK will be free to strike its own super-amazing trade deals "across the globe" as if the East India Tea Company will be setting sail again, they barely managed to negotiate this one, after two and a half years, and they don't even want it. I know this deal is more than just a trade deal in that it's to set out the UK's future legal relationship with the EU and the border is a fatal complication, but in this case they were negotiating with an economic power that doesn't want to hurt them or exploit them. How are they going to fare against the US or China etc when this shítshow is the best they could manage? They are seriously overestimating their own clout and paying no heed to the fact that other nations want good trade deals for themselves, not for the UK.
jmayo wrote: » Ah come on be fair. JCB is what is left of what was once a great indigenous British vehicle manufacturing industry. The rest from their glory years, when they were even sometimes world leading design, have either disappeared entirely or have been bought up by foreigners. And the shock and horror of it sometimes the foreigners hail from former colonies. Next week he will be speaking from Morgan's plant.
Necro wrote: » Jaysus, that could be even worse if the current attitude to the WA is carried over into negotiations over trade. Can you imagine the current rabble and their rhetoric towards a Ukrainian trade deal that is in any way productive? And that's Ukraine. The US and China will destroy them in negotiations, even if the EU doesn't (and that will likely be the easier one of the three big deals)
ancapailldorcha wrote: » I can't say where I got this from but DoIT's current objective is trying to mitigate as much damage as possible. The issue won't be signing new trade deals, it's going to be trying to preserve as much of the current deals as possible as other countries will be angling for renegotiations given that the EU negotiated them on its members' behalf. Even the Ukraine is looking for a renegotiation:https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-ukraine-welcome-progress-on-trade-relationship
Necro wrote: » Here's the thing that I wonder most regarding the possibility of a No Deal Brexit (and apologies if this has been discussed before). Given that the HoC can't even decide what direction to take with a Crash Out looming, how on earth can any of the parties - Labour, Tories - whoever is in charge in the aftermath - be trusted or deemed competent to negotiate trade deals with other nations?
Necro wrote: » I just don't see how this gets resolved under the current chicken coop system that is the HoC. Even IF there is a Crash Out, and IF there is a trade deal negotiated - I don't see how any of it can possibly favour the UK. It's why I just can't see a No Deal happening.
Tell me how wrote: » I've been thinking about this also. I'm no student of history but I wonder if it could be said that most significant changes in political structures and major players were initiated by some form of conflict. Scary thought if so. I'm sure some parties develop organically but usually in parallel with the major players. While many are despondent with what is going on in the UK, it remains to be seen if it results in change. We saw the death of the PD's in Ireland in 2009 after they were eviscerated in the 2007 election. Think people also though that many party loyalists become entrenched and so are resistant to change even though the outside perception might be that they should (DUP for instance).
Spanish Eyes wrote: » I've googled, but it's not clear... Does anyone know if A50 is withdrawn would HOC have to vote on it first, or can May just send a letter to Brussels?
Deleted User wrote: » Not even one of my many English friends cares about Northern Ireland in the slightest. The Unionists are an odd bunch.. Their only attachment to Great Britain is written in paper. Neither Ireland nor Great Britain wants them.
Tropheus wrote: » Corbyn is in a no win situation. If there was a clear mandate for a second referendum or to cancel Brexit, things may be more straight forward and Labour could move in that direction. However, that's not the case. If there was a second referendum, would remain win? It's questionable. Amazingly, there is still a significant percentage of the electorate that still think a hard Brexit is a good idea. This is a problem of the Tories making and if I was Corbyn, I'd leave then to it.
Akrasia wrote: » The UK would need an extension to A50 even if Mays deal somehow passes miraculously. They simply don't have enough time to enact the legislation required to enable a withdrawal agreement. All of this pussyfooting around is even making a 'managed no deal' scenario less likely. They're on target for the hardest possible crash out where they don't even have enough good will with the EU to allow planes to fly and trucks to drive on the continent. Which is why i think the HOC will step up and withdraw A50 before 29th of march. It will be a private members motion that pulls A50 entirely in the days before crunch time. The only way this wouldn't result in riots on the streets is if it included a clause calling for another referendum. (There would probably still be riots though, just not as many) By doing it this way, it changes the default from Crashing out of Europe, to keeping things the way they are now. Or to use the logic of brexiteers, if you've in negotiations you need the option of walking away, in this case, the option is walking away crom Brexit, not the EU.
backspin. wrote: » Judging by the reaction of the Question Time audience the other night in middle England I think leave would be favourites.
marno21 wrote: » I can't be the only one that thinks that this Tweet by Keir Starmer could also apply to his own leader. The toothlessness of his "opposition" is beyond depressing
Tell me how wrote: » I wonder has the EU reached a point where they expect no positive movement from the UK to actually help themselves and so they will be more steadfast in refusing to allow for an extension to A50, should it be requested. I wouldn't be surprised if they are thinking that enough is enough and the shock of a No deal is what is needed to provoke some reality hitting home. I read that May spoke with EU leaders, including Merkel and that they were in a degree of disbelief at the requests they were hearing for action on the EU side.
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