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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Dyr

Adamcp898 wrote: »

No. The problem (not the only, just the major one) with what you've just outlined is that it would be an extremely antagonistic way to try and force a United Ireland and could lead to huge amount of unrest and violence.

The problem with Northern Ireland is we've always been willing to let a minority have their way for fear of them wrecking the place otherwise.

That nettle has to be grasped at some stage

Seth Brundle

So the main opposition in the UK is as divided as the government. Apparently if Corbyn pushes for a second referendum, Labour could lose twelve from his frontbench because of fear of voter reprisals (linky).
So what now?
The government have no leadership and the members cannot unite on a single stance.
Hopefully I'm wrong but I can't see May having a plan B ready for Monday.
The opposition aren't united and facing in one direction.
Is the UK just going to stumble it's way to March 29th?

Adamcp898

Infini wrote: »

It could also be argued the whole Brexit fiasco as well as how Stormont has been collapsed and not running all this time is also a breach of the GFA and its been primarily on the British side. If anything if a reunification movement were to emerge in the months following Brexit we would be well within our rights to demand such a poll because of the dual factors of it being part of the GFA AND because it would remove the only land border between the UK and EU if successful.

The only problem will be the shytstirrers from the DUP who helped cause the mess but they should be handled by quite simply taking the kid gloves off and holding them to account with hard facts.

No. The problem (not the only, just the major one) with what you've just outlined is that it would be an extremely antagonistic way to try and force a United Ireland and could lead to huge amount of unrest and violence.

Silent Running

demfad wrote: »

May's deal is not dead yet in my opinion. If the disfunction continues the end state may be the one of least resistance (requires least work)

1. No Deal
2. Revoke
3. May's Deal

Well, the one that requires least work is a crash out no deal. It requires absolutely nothing to be done. Just wait out the clock.

Tell me how

demfad wrote: »

May's deal is not dead yet in my opinion. If the disfunction continues the end state may be the one of least resistance (requires least work)

1. No Deal
2. Revoke
3. May's Deal

Watching Question Time last night as well as a lot of UK media over the last few days, I fear unless Corbyn gets his finger out, they will exit with a No deal before May's deal is accepted.

If this was happening anytime up to 2 hundred years ago, the outcome would be civil war. I think the division and emotion involved is that deep.

FreudianSlippers

May's deal is the only deal.

demfad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, but May's deal is dead in the water. What matters between now and April is what most MPs want, not what May wants.

May's deal is not dead yet in my opinion. If the disfunction continues the end state may be the one of least resistance (requires least work)

1. No Deal
2. Revoke
3. May's Deal

RobMc59

Just my opinion but the rhetoric seems to be becoming increasingly extreme by the hour-sniping at each other doesn't help the situation.

Infini

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Denying it would be unionist politicking, and there's more than enough of that.

The Dáil has a duty to enact the GFA.

It could also be argued the whole Brexit fiasco as well as how Stormont has been collapsed and not running all this time is also a breach of the GFA and its been primarily on the British side. If anything if a reunification movement were to emerge in the months following Brexit we would be well within our rights to demand such a poll because of the dual factors of it being part of the GFA AND because it would remove the only land border between the UK and EU if successful.

The only problem will be the shytstirrers from the DUP who helped cause the mess but they should be handled by quite simply taking the kid gloves off and holding them to account with hard facts.

J Mysterio

Havockk wrote: »

This kind of rubbish is creeping into Irish media sources more and more. Don't think there couldn't be a full blown media campaign for irexit in the event of a no-deal brexit.

I dont like how having a website and being listed as a journalist there just lends legitimacy now. 'Spiked' is a deeply dubious entity which appears to be quite transparently a lobby group of some mysterious patronage.

These people have an agenda and they are trying to influence opinion and debate.

I really struggle with the idea that people can continue to press patently incorrect or highly dubious theoretical or emotive points - against logic, decency and factual reality - and be quickly accomodated by what are serious institutions from which we expect a high standard. That in Brexit, 'both sides' of the debate are in effect 'equal' and legitimate.

An Claidheamh

J Mysterio wrote: »

Newton Emerson coming up in Newstalk to tell us why 'the backstop backfired on Ireland'.

1) it would be something else if it wasn't the backstop, it's a term like "Prussian militarism", for British simpletons to get behind and ignore the hypocrisy

2) It hasn't really backfired, Britain wants to be in the EU, just not a member

3) Britain already signed up to it as the only solution

4) It was their idea

Emerson is just trolling.

However, I for one think it would be great if it was the "Irish backstop" that broke the "United" Kingdom, put them out of Europe and led to a border poll

An Claidheamh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A border poll is afaik the decision of the Secretary of state for Northern Ireland according to the Belfast Agreement.
I don't think we should demand it as it would quite rightly be seen as nationalist politicking.

Denying it would be unionist politicking, and there's more than enough of that.

The Dáil has a duty to enact the GFA.

Zubeneschamali

Keatsian wrote: »

For the Tories themselves I mean.

Some of them, sure, but a cross-party Norway deal leaves May in #10 til the next election so the most important Tory might see a silver lining.

An Claidheamh

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Kate Hoey on 'The View' saying that a no-deal Brexit will be much worse for Ireland than the north.

They need to have someone who's qualified on EU matters stand next to people being interviewed on Brexit with a big vuvuzela that gets blasted into their ear when they talk shit.

You can take the girl out of the orange order but you can't take the orange order out if the girl.

She's just another unionist caricature

josip

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Its hard to see how a Norway deal would work for the UK.

Lets be honest, Brexit was largely based on ending free movement of people. But people move freely between Norway and the EU.

http://theconversation.com/irish-border-after-brexit-an-expert-on-norway-sweden-explains-how-to-keep-things-smooth-88749

There's little to stop Eastern Europeans flying into Ireland then crossing into the North and then on to the UK mainland and then working in the black economy or just ending up homeless as many of them now are.

Unless the UK signs up to all EU legislation around trade and regulations, customs and border posts will be a must. And to stop free movement checks will need to be in place for that too.

Preventing EU citizens entering the UK, no longer requires a physical border thanks to the UK's innovation as they have promised countless times, despite the disbelief shown by Ireland/EU.

Their remarkable solution, which most other countries would have been incapable of implementing, is to embark on a course of economic self destruction unparalleled in modern Europe.

https://www.ft.com/content/e5352c28-f3bc-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f

Dyr

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

The EU would or course have to help us subsidize the north if a United Ireland ever came to pass. I can't see most people in the UK missing the North if it left.

TBH the UK can pay their share and all if we take the north on. It's their mess we're going to have to clean up

ToBeFrank123

A border poll would fail in the short term.

But if Brexit goes t*ts up and people in the north are really struggling because of a poor economy, hard border, job losses and so on, the chances of it succeeding would improve.

Let's face it, Northerners must have some of the worst political leadership on the planet. Ours is at least slightly better.

The EU would or course have to help us subsidize the north if a United Ireland ever came to pass. I can't see most people in the UK missing the North if it left.

Tell me how

Well, they were right. The Germans are pleading.

High profile Germans plead with UK to stay in the EU

The letter, published in the Times, is signed by 31 people, including the leader of the Christian Democratic Union - and likely successor to Angela Merkel - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and former Arsenal goalkeeper Jens Lehmann.

.......

The signatories said that they "respect the choice" of British people who want to leave the EU and, if the country wants to leave for good, "it will always have friends in Germany and Europe".

But they said the choice was not irreversible and "our door will always remain open".

[Deleted User]

Infini wrote: »

Which is silly because if they crash out and they come crawling back for a deal we could simply state the backstop will be part of any agreement OR we could be more assertive and demand a border poll as part of the price of any deal if we wanted (expecially if theres a large campaign for reunification at the same time because of the failure of brexit).

The backstop came about because the Brits had burned their diplomatic capital and trust with their actions and statements. Its a legal requirement to prevent a hard border they cant escape that unless they remain within the customs union which they wont accept.

A border poll is afaik the decision of the Secretary of state for Northern Ireland according to the Belfast Agreement.
I don't think we should demand it as it would quite rightly be seen as nationalist politicking.

BonnieSituation

Bit cynical wrote: »

Hmm. I think a more widely accepted narrative is that the backstop came from the EU side.

What does that even mean or matter?

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

Newton Emerson coming up in Newstalk to tell us why 'the backstop backfired on Ireland'.

Which is silly because if they crash out and they come crawling back for a deal we could simply state the backstop will be part of any agreement OR we could be more assertive and demand a border poll as part of the price of any deal if we wanted (expecially if theres a large campaign for reunification at the same time because of the failure of brexit).

The backstop came about because the Brits had burned their diplomatic capital and trust with their actions and statements. Its a legal requirement to prevent a hard border they cant escape that unless they remain within the customs union which they wont accept.

Keatsian

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it doesn't. There are a majority of MPs who oppose No Deal when you line up moderate Tories, centrist Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems. They simply grab hold of an amendable act, amend it so that it:

For the Tories themselves I mean. This whole referendum was mainly for their benefit, in the forlorn hope that the party could put its divisions on Europe behind it.

ToBeFrank123

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it doesn't. There are a majority of MPs who oppose No Deal when you line up moderate Tories, centrist Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems. They simply grab hold of an amendable act, amend it so that it:

a) instructs the Government to seek a Norway Deal.

b) Instructs the Government that if a withdrawal agreement is not in place on, say, March 22nd, they are to write to the EU unilaterally withdrawing the A50 letter.

And the Tory Brexiters and DUP can go and sh!te. (That doesn't have to be in the legislation)

This does not achieve Corbyn's goal of a general election and Labour Government, which is why no-one has tried it yet. But when we get down to the wire, it is perfectly doable.

Its hard to see how a Norway deal would work for the UK.

Lets be honest, Brexit was largely based on ending free movement of people. But people move freely between Norway and the EU.

Norway has also adopted EU legislation on coordination of social security, so that that people who move or commute between it and the EU qualify for benefits in case of unemployment or illness. In spite of not being an EU country, Norway has even joined the Schengen Agreement on abolishing border controls. In this way, the free movement between Norway and Sweden that has existed since the 1950s has been retained and reinforced by European cooperation.

http://theconversation.com/irish-border-after-brexit-an-expert-on-norway-sweden-explains-how-to-keep-things-smooth-88749

There's little to stop Eastern Europeans flying into Ireland then crossing into the North and then on to the UK mainland and then working in the black economy or just ending up homeless as many of them now are.

Unless the UK signs up to all EU legislation around trade and regulations, customs and border posts will be a must. And to stop free movement checks will need to be in place for that too.

VinLieger

Hurrache wrote: »

May and her ministers apparently are set to block Bercow's peerage, the first time in 230 years, as a punishment for what they see as his bias during the Brexit debate.

How incredibly petty of them

Zubeneschamali

Keatsian wrote: »

Except it would never satisfy the Tory Brexiters, which defeats the purpose of the whole exercise.

No, it doesn't. There are a majority of MPs who oppose No Deal when you line up moderate Tories, centrist Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems. They simply grab hold of an amendable act, amend it so that it:

a) instructs the Government to seek a Norway Deal.

b) Instructs the Government that if a withdrawal agreement is not in place on, say, March 22nd, they are to write to the EU unilaterally withdrawing the A50 letter.

And the Tory Brexiters and DUP can go and sh!te. (That doesn't have to be in the legislation)

This does not achieve Corbyn's goal of a general election and Labour Government, which is why no-one has tried it yet. But when we get down to the wire, it is perfectly doable.

seamus

It's about 3 months too late, but it's good for a chuckle.

A small group of people went about getting billboard-sized printouts of ironic/hypocritical tweets and quotes from Brexiteers, and pasted them up (unauthorised).

After a show of support they've decided to go legit with it, run a proper set of authorised billboards, and in something reminiscent of the abortion debate in Ireland, their crowdfunding attempt smashed its original goal in a couple of hours;

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/by-donkeys

Like I say, it's way too late I feel to be of any real impact.

J Mysterio

Newton Emerson coming up in Newstalk to tell us why 'the backstop backfired on Ireland'.

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's important that voices from the other side are heard. If only to confirm that they are talking rubbish.

In normal times I'd probably agree. These aren't normal times and between me and you, a hell of a lot of people are susceptible to not listening to reason.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

This kind of rubbish is creeping into Irish media sources more and more. Don't think there couldn't be a full blown media campaign for irexit in the event of a no-deal brexit.

It's important that voices from the other side are heard. If only to confirm that they are talking rubbish.

Enzokk

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Just can't remember the chronology.

Would Theresa's deal have been home and dry or done and dusted had the DUP not pulled a strop in December? Would she have had to take that one to parliament?

She would have been struggling for enough votes for any deal. There is no deal out there that has enough support due to her red lines and the factions within the Conservative Party. She may have gotten a deal with the help of Corbyn but I think Labour would have balked at this as any positives the government would have claimed and blamed the negatives on Labour. That is what FPTP does.