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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Bit cynical

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Absolutely not.

The EU agreed to the backstop in order to move onto the next stage over a year ago and look how that blew up.
.

Hmm. I think a more widely accepted narrative is that the backstop came from the EU side.

c.p.w.g.w

I find it amusing that they have literally left it till the last moment's.

Really hope the EU refuse their appeals to extend the date. The British people need to smack of reality and a horrible few years while they get sorted might be good for them. I will feel for the Scots who've been ridden by London of late with the indy-ref and now brexit

Will also knock some manners into anti-EU parties and the other countries looking to leave

BonnieSituation

J Mysterio wrote: »

Im not sure WW is kosher here but boy did this make me laugh:

"Cameron, famous for allegedly fucķing a dead pig and then fucķing over a dead empire by forcing a referendum on membership of the EU"

I'm almost certain that defiling a pigs head is not kosher.

But I wouldn't Labour the point such a crude joke at all. Cor-blimey! May-be it's the sort you'd Chukka in the byn.

J Mysterio

70 days till Brexit. parliament only sitting for about 35 of those. Frightening.

https://howmanydaystill.com/its/brexit-6

Peregrinus

gooch2k9 wrote: »

I'm just reading a BBC article about what the DUP wants out of all this(link). The first line states they voted with the government and upheld their side of the S&C agreement. Surely the vote against the WA broke the terms of this agreement? The agreement itself states they will vote with the government on votes concerning the exit from the EU.

Yes, but they voted with here in the confidence motion the following day. Even if the DUP breach the deal on occasion, as long as they support the government on confidence and supply May cannot afford to shred the deal. So it;s largely unenforceable against the DUP; in practice they can't be held to it, except on confidence and supply.

Peregrinus

tipp_tipp_tipp wrote: »

Hi folks, so I'm just after watching Andrew Neill interview JRM. Link to the YT video is below. I've heard him going on all about dropping all tariffs for goods the UK doesn't produce, and it crops up again in this interview. I find this kinda fascinating as a concept. Anyone on here with some expertise in this area that can describe what could happen if such a policy was implemented by the UK??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5CEvdpQmRs

Superficially attractive, and makes a certain kind of common sense. "We don't produce widgets; we need widgets; it's self-harming to tax imported widgets; so let's not."

But it's not that simple. It doesn't really solve a lot of problems, and it creates a few of its own. Couple of points.

- It does little to address the problem of port congestion. Even if (say) 50% of the goods imported are tariff free, you still need customs declarations, inspections, etc for 100%; otherwise how are you to know that 50% are tax-free (and how are you to collect the taxes on the other 50%)? (But maybe port congestion is not the problem it's supposed to address.)

- It's a relatively narrow range of good where the UK imports 100% of its consumption. Take beef; the UK produces (I think) about 40% of the beef it consumes. The rest is imported. Logic suggests that you should eliminate the tariff on beef, so that you can get the 60% that you need at the lowest cost. But if you do that, UK producers are undercut by (much more efficient) Australian and New Zealand producers, so the UK beef industry collapses. So this really only works for goods where you import 100% of your consumption - avocados, say. But that's not a very large chunk of imports.

- It tend to undercut your parallel policy of negotiating trade deals. Suppose I produce apples and you produce oranges. I reduce my tariff on oranges to 0%, so my vitamin C-craving population can get their fix cheaply. I also approach you with a view to negotiating a trade deal. But you can already export your oranges to me free of tariffs; that situation can't possibly be improved on by any trade deal, so the incentive for you to make a deal with me has been reduced; I now have less to offer you to induce you to make a trade deal than I did before. So I'll end up making lousier (from my point of view) or fewer trade deals.

BonnieSituation

RobMc59 wrote: »

I've said before that SF should take their seats in Westminster as there will never be a chance like this again to have a major say in proceedings-as it is the DUP proping up TM could be the reason for a hard brexit.

Which flies in the face of their raison d'etre.

And no matter how many times you and others state it, it will not make it so.

Give up 100 years of abstentionism to help the Brits and their place in Ireland? Cmon Rob.

josip

speckled_park wrote: »

Loudest cheer on qt was for a no deal brexit. &#55357;&#56877;

I think it's best to defer to Goldsmith on that one.
"the loud laugh that spoke the vacant mind."

I suspect that Brexiteers are better at making noise than the Remainers.
That was probably the Remainers undoing 3 years ago.

Strazdas

Russman wrote: »

It’s actually frightening to watch. One guy saying that the EU is in recession and now is the time to apply maximum pressure to them - “WTF” doesn’t even begin to cover it.
Of the panel, the Scottish girl is the only one speaking any sense at all, actually the guy at the far left of the screen, can’t remember his name, was fairly clued in too, while Abbott is really showing up how poor Labour are right now.

I think at this stage, let them crash out and learn the hard way.

It's heading this way. The dogmatic loons (many millions of them) simply cannot be reasoned with or even debated with.

BonnieSituation

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well it is too late now, but I think the EU and the UK could have discussed future trade during the two years of A50. Yes, there would be a conflict of interest if the UK reps were also on the EU side in the negotiation,but what would happen is that in order for talks to proceed, the UK would extricate itself from the EU side for the purposes of trade talks (this would include trade talks between the EU and other countries). This has already happened in other areas of the process where you have had the EU27 leaders meeting without the UK.

Absolutely not.

The EU agreed to the backstop in order to move onto the next stage over a year ago and look how that blew up.

Quite frankly it is a nonsense to suggest that there should have been tandem negotiations. The Brits couldn't handle concentrating on one subject that they agreed to never mind the last 2 years plus the uncertainty of trade negotiation on top. You're delusional to think otherwise.

tuxy

branie2 wrote: »

If that lady knew what Cromwell did to Ireland, she'd quickly change her tune

Or show even more admiration for him, could go either way.

wiggle16

branie2 wrote: »

If that lady knew what Cromwell did to Ireland, she'd quickly change her tune

I'd like to think so but I wouldn't be so sure she would.

Tell me how

branie2 wrote: »

If that lady knew what Cromwell did to Ireland, she'd quickly change her tune

She probably does.

Question Time tonight was the most acrimonious towards the EU I have seen. Really was worrying.

Also disappointed in Kirsty that when an audience member mentioned about the Leave campaign cheating, Kirsty came in immediately and said that "There were questions about both Leave and Remain sides in the campaign"

Carole Cadwalladar noticed this.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1086043777729482752

branie2

If that lady knew what Cromwell did to Ireland, she'd quickly change her tune

Tell me how

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LiamMcKee/status/1086031283422138368

Watch the guy in the background at 33 seconds when she says they need Cromwell.

tipp_tipp_tipp

Hi folks, so I'm just after watching Andrew Neill interview JRM. Link to the YT video is below. I've heard him going on all about dropping all tariffs for goods the UK doesn't produce, and it crops up again in this interview. I find this kinda fascinating as a concept. Anyone on here with some expertise in this area that can describe what could happen if such a policy was implemented by the UK??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5CEvdpQmRs

Capt'n Midnight

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It's very disturbing. Don't know if it was posted but on Newsnight earlier a member of the public said the country needed another Cromwell and Enoch Powell to step forward.
...

It's sad and also troubling what is happenin right now. I'm concerned where this will end up.

Cromwell is it ?

Hard Brexit and we'll use our veto in any future EU trade deals. :P
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ahern-says-he-did-not-leave-cook-s-office-over-cromwell-1.893792

The introduction of Dr Ó Siochrú's book details an incident whereby the newly elected taoiseach staged a walkout from the office of the foreign secretary upon seeing the portrait hanging, and refused to return until "that murdering bastard" had been removed.

Russman

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

This Question Time debate is surreal. Judging by the audience there is a sizeable proportion of the UK population willing to endure a destructive no deal Brexit just to see what happens.

It’s actually frightening to watch. One guy saying that the EU is in recession and now is the time to apply maximum pressure to them - “WTF” doesn’t even begin to cover it.
Of the panel, the Scottish girl is the only one speaking any sense at all, actually the guy at the far left of the screen, can’t remember his name, was fairly clued in too, while Abbott is really showing up how poor Labour are right now.

I think at this stage, let them crash out and learn the hard way.

Capt'n Midnight

wiggle16 wrote: »

And she was a Remainer.

Would they actually get a Norway EFTA arrangement now though? Surely that would take a long time to sort out? Not to mention Theresa May might actually drop dead if they ship her off the Brussels just to be told "Nein, Madam!" once again.

Nah still don't buy the remainer bit.

Norway in theory means getting it past the EU 27 and the 4 EFTA
In practice Norway won't get past any of the UK's red lines.

Norway++ that passes any of May's red lines means Norway, the Swiss and Turkey will freak out at any cherry picking getting unless there are going to get the same deal or there are some very serious strings attached.

Mr.Nice Guy

Strazdas wrote:

It's insane stuff. There seems to be millions of "not very bright people" (ahem) getting their information from the British right wing press and basing their entire world view on it. It's a toxic mix.

It's very disturbing. Don't know if it was posted but on Newsnight earlier a member of the public said the country needed another Cromwell and Enoch Powell to step forward.

https://twitter.com/LiamMcKee/status/1086031283422138368

It's sad and also troubling what is happenin right now. I'm concerned where this will end up.

Strazdas

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I would listen to BBC radio a good bit and more so then any other week this week on five live and radio 4 have been eye opening. There seems to be a good section of people in the U.K. going on what people say on the radio who go from not being read up on the issue of brexit to just living in same fantasy land. It's actually frightening that the same false statements are used and few if any are properly challenged. One contribution ended with the reason why the eu should've been in their eyes more respectful to Theresa May is "two world wars...."

This is really bad news for the UK though. There are times when you think they might just be able to extricate themselves from the mess, but when you hear the opinions of what seems like millions of their citizens, you'd have to fear it's all going to kick off in a bad way this year......vast numbers of idiots with fixed and dogmatic views demanding that their "will" be obeyed.

Shelga

The BBC’s coverage is farcical now and reflects Brexit in general- heavy on emotions, extremely light on facts.

Or as Leavers put it- ‘Project Fear’.

Even if the CEOs of Toyota, JLR, Nissan etc announced in April that they were shutting some of their UK factories directly because of leaving the EU with no deal, you would have cretins saying that they are lying/didn’t actually mean that.

It’s the most rabid, bizarre form of cognitive dissonance.

speckled_park

Loudest cheer on qt was for a no deal brexit. ðŸ˜

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Seems apparent there's a sizeable chunk of the UK population that want no deal. The support for it in the Commons might be small but they operate under a FPTP system rather than a proportional one. I don't think that body reflects the wider public sentiment.

Listening to Question Time it's clear they've fallen for the charlatans and snake-oil salesmen hook, line and sinker. One member still trotting out the unicorn about the German car manufacturers coming to the rescue.

I really think the UK is on its last legs. I can't see a nation with sense like Scotland wanting to be tied to this circus for much longer. I just hope the majority in NI reach the same conclusion as it's tragic that our destiny on this island is affected by the opinions of people like Isabel Oakeshott.

It's insane stuff. There seems to be millions of "not very bright people" (ahem) getting their information from the British right wing press and basing their entire world view on it. It's a toxic mix.

Mr.Nice Guy

Really unimpressed with Fiona Bruce. Seems to be more interested in playing to the gallery and getting some quips in for cheap laughs. Was hoping for a bit more maturity than this. Maybe the praise she got for her debut performance has gone to her head.

wiggle16

Strazdas wrote: »

It does mean that, yes and Norwegians did suggest they would have a problem with it.

It would be a bizarre solution though. Why would the UK leave the EU to join the Single Market? It clearly would be a worse deal than EU membership.

Exactly. It would defeat the purpose of leaving at all. They gain nothing from a Norway deal and are still landed with all the stuff they don't want, like freedom of movement.

Whatever way it works out it's going to be impossible to sell it to the British public after the fact.

I've always felt a little sorry for Theresa May. She has made inexcusably terrible decisions but at the same time she has been put in an impossible position, you can actually see it's put years on her. She's been humiliated over and over again and her political career is extinct. And she was a Remainer.

Would they actually get a Norway EFTA arrangement now though? Surely that would take a long time to sort out? Not to mention Theresa May might actually drop dead if they ship her off the Brussels just to be told "Nein, Madam!" once again.

Itssoeasy

I would listen to BBC radio a good bit and more so then any other week this week on five live and radio 4 have been eye opening. There seems to be a good section of people in the U.K. going on what people say on the radio who go from not being read up on the issue of brexit to just living in same fantasy land. It's actually frightening that the same false statements are used and few if any are properly challenged. One contribution ended with the reason why the eu should've been in their eyes more respectful to Theresa May is "two world wars...."

FrancieBrady

Question time - Brexit has reached terminal velocity.

* This is not a one line post.

Sierra Oscar

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Question Time

Isobel - staying in the single market means freedom of movement.

WTF ?

not even challenged on it.

This Question Time debate is surreal. Judging by the audience there is a sizeable proportion of the UK population willing to endure a destructive no deal Brexit just to see what happens.

Mr.Nice Guy

Seems apparent there's a sizeable chunk of the UK population that want no deal. The support for it in the Commons might be small but they operate under a FPTP system rather than a proportional one. I don't think that body reflects the wider public sentiment.

Listening to Question Time it's clear they've fallen for the charlatans and snake-oil salesmen hook, line and sinker. One member still trotting out the unicorn about the German car manufacturers coming to the rescue.

I really think the UK is on its last legs. I can't see a nation with sense like Scotland wanting to be tied to this circus for much longer. I just hope the majority in NI reach the same conclusion as it's tragic that our destiny on this island is affected by the opinions of people like Isabel Oakeshott.