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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Capt'n Midnight

Question Time

Isobel - staying in the single market means freedom of movement.

WTF ?

not even challenged on it.

Capt'n Midnight

10000maniacs wrote: »

Yes the Norway option. It would mean Britain continuing to abide by the four EU freedoms, including freedom of movement, as well as having no decision-making power in Brussels. And they would be replacing the ECJ with the EFTA courts. And why would countries like Norway along with the likes of Lichtenstein, Iceland and Switzerland allow a monolith like the UK distort the harmony and balance enjoyed by EEA/EFTA currently. What is in it for smaller countries vs the UK?

And Schengen.

Also no passporting for the financials.

Also Norway pays as much to the EU per capita as the UK.

So Norway is a non starter because it crosses so many red lines.

Getting a Norway plus plus with all the above taken out is a pipe dream at this late stage, especially now that other countries are now spending money on preparations.

Strazdas

josip wrote: »

Can someone please explain what the Norway-type option is?
Does that mean the UK would have to be a member of EFTA?
I thought Norway said they would veto that?

It does mean that, yes and Norwegians did suggest they would have a problem with it.

It would be a bizarre solution though. Why would the UK leave the EU to join the Single Market? It clearly would be a worse deal than EU membership.

tuxy

josip wrote: »

Can someone please explain what the Norway-type option is?
Does that mean the UK would have to be a member of EFTA?
I thought Norway said they would veto that?

It would be a bespoke agreement between the EU and UK
EFTA would be used as a template and then changes made that both sides are happy with.
I don't know if Norway could have a say if they are not involved.

Bit cynical

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yup so lets see where we stand -
- 2nd Referendum - rejected by Corbyn and May
- General Election - rejected by May
- No deal - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it
- May's Compromise - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it

That only leaves a type Norway option - supported by opposition parties and probably enough Tories to allow it to pass

I think that is a reasonable assessment.

Capt'n Midnight

bob mcbob wrote: »

The Telegraph headline

Cabinet ministers warn Theresa May she will face mass resignations unless she allows MPs to stop no-deal Brexit.

Paywall Link https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/17/philip-hammond-faces-cabinet-backlash-telling-business-chiefs/

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/01/17/120363/

As matters stand, we’re either heading for crash out No Deal or the main parties are heading for break-up.

I can't see either party splitting.
- Because nearly 60% of seats are safe seats. Leave the party , leave the seat.

- And watching how UKIP's vote imploded isn't going to encourage MP to go it alone.

- Looking at how the SNP are ignored means no MP will want to join a small party.

- Both Labour and Tories will try to strangle such a party at birth.

10000maniacs

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yup so lets see where we stand -
- 2nd Referendum - rejected by Corbyn and May
- General Election - rejected by May
- No deal - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it
- May's Compromise - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it

That only leaves a type Norway option - supported by opposition parties and probably enough Tories to allow it to pass

Yes the Norway option. It would mean Britain continuing to abide by the four EU freedoms, including freedom of movement, as well as having no decision-making power in Brussels. And they would be replacing the ECJ with the EFTA courts. And why would countries like Norway along with the likes of Lichtenstein, Iceland and Switzerland allow a monolith like the UK distort the harmony and balance enjoyed by EEA/EFTA currently. What is in it for smaller countries vs the UK?

Tell me how

Shelga wrote: »

90% of the Question Time audience in Derby seem to want to leave with no deal. That stain on humanity Isabel Oakeshott is playing to her audience.

Absolute insanity. It is like a cult. Please, let them leave with no deal and see them still try to blame the EU for absolutely everything from the NHS to housing in three years time.

Walk away with no deal and Angela Merkel is going to be ringing pretty quickly!

Where are they getting their confidence from?

josip

Can someone please explain what the Norway-type option is?
Does that mean the UK would have to be a member of EFTA?
I thought Norway said they would veto that?

sandbelter

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yup so lets see where we stand -
- 2nd Referendum - rejected by Corbyn and May
- General Election - rejected by May
- No deal - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it
- May's Compromise - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it

That only leaves a type Norway option - supported by opposition parties and probably enough Tories to allow it to pass

Or a by default "no deal."

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

Its grim viewing. You have to hope they are selecting their audience otherwise the UK education system has a lot to answer for. This is Derby, where Rolls Royce builds their aircraft engines for Airbus. They are clamoring to leave without a deal it seems.

The UK is screwed. Even if this audience represents say 30% or 40% of the UK, it spells major trouble ahead.

Enzokk

Shelga wrote: »

90% of the Question Time audience in Derby seem to want to leave with no deal. That stain on humanity Isabel Oakeshott is playing to her audience.

Absolute insanity. It is like a cult. Please, let them leave with no deal and see them still try to blame the EU for absolutely everything from the NHS to housing in three years time.

Just wait, all the greatest hits will be there.

bob mcbob

LeinsterDub wrote: »

So in summary if May does anything people will quit? If Corbyn does anything people will quit?

Yup so lets see where we stand -
- 2nd Referendum - rejected by Corbyn and May
- General Election - rejected by May
- No deal - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it
- May's Compromise - rejected by Corbyn and enough Tories to stop it

That only leaves a type Norway option - supported by opposition parties and probably enough Tories to allow it to pass

Shelga

90% of the Question Time audience in Derby seem to want to leave with no deal. That stain on humanity Isabel Oakeshott is playing to her audience.

Absolute insanity. It is like a cult. Please, let them leave with no deal and see them still try to blame the EU for absolutely everything from the NHS to housing in three years time.

10000maniacs

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

News dump.

Brexit means the UK gov't isn't planning to keep the lights on.
All but one of the UK's existing nuclear power plants are due to close by 2030. Only one of the six new plants is going ahead.
A Hard Brexit means importing electricity may have extra costs.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46896530
A reminder that a Hard Brexit means things like data transfers get tricky.

Housing market outlook worst 'for 20 years' Uncertainty.
Property values also affect the balance sheet. Enough of a fall and some companies would become insolvent.

Make no mistake, anything other than calling off the whole thing means years more haggling and presumably humiliation.
Ministers must clarify the UK's post-Brexit relationship with Switzerland and up to 70 non-EU countries,

The price of renewable energy has halved in the last 10 years. We should invest heavily in wind farms.

Enzokk

Strazdas wrote: »

Wait until you see Question Time......audience full of No Deal types and hardline Brexiteers (!)

Its grim viewing. You have to hope they are selecting their audience otherwise the UK education system has a lot to answer for. This is Derby, where Rolls Royce builds their aircraft engines for Airbus. They are clamoring to leave without a deal it seems.

LeinsterDub

So in summary if May does anything people will quit? If Corbyn does anything people will quit?

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The View on BBC atm is very good and interesting.

Wait until you see Question Time......audience full of No Deal types and hardline Brexiteers (!)

bob mcbob

hotmail.com wrote: »

Very weary of these threats at this stage. Liam Fox is going no where.

This is not Brexiteers, this is the remainers.

hotmail.com

bob mcbob wrote:

Cabinet ministers warn Theresa May she will face mass resignations unless she allows MPs to stop no-deal Brexit.

Very weary of these threats at this stage. Liam Fox is going no where.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Same as the Tories. Both parties split and divided. May aswell have an MP swap or a session of musical chairs in the HOC and only stop the music when everyone is sitting on the right side. Either that or they can have 1 new party from each of Labour and Tories and 1 for the ERG. At least there would be some options and more clearly defined positions.

I believe that most Labour MPs are remainers. I know a lot of them are in areas that voted to leave. But as David Lammy said he was elected to represent the best interests of his voters even when that was against what they were telling him.

bob mcbob

The Telegraph headline

Cabinet ministers warn Theresa May she will face mass resignations unless she allows MPs to stop no-deal Brexit.

josip

bilston wrote: »

Revolt from who?

I thought most Labour voters and MPs wanted a second referendum?

The article I read was that the revolt would be from his front bench.

bilston

J Mysterio wrote: »

Guardian headline for tomorrow is 'Corbyn faces revolts if he looks for second referendum'.

That is very confusing indeed.

Revolt from who?

I thought most Labour voters and MPs wanted a second referendum?

wiggle16

J Mysterio wrote: »

Guardian headline for tomorrow is 'Corbyn faces revolts if he looks for second referendum'.

That is very confusing indeed.

It is confusing, but then the whole thing is.

If Corbyn calls for a second referendum (which he should) he risks losing his pro-Leave northern English voter base.

It's become frustratingly clear that all he wants are the keys to number 10, he won't risk losing a single vote even if that means going along with the hard Brexit suicide pact....

Junkyard Tom

Kate Hoey on 'The View' saying that a no-deal Brexit will be much worse for Ireland than the north.

They need to have someone who's qualified on EU matters stand next to people being interviewed on Brexit with a big vuvuzela that gets blasted into their ear when they talk shit.

J Mysterio

Enzokk wrote: »

I really don't know how they get these numbers, but I am not close to the party though. There seems to be a disconnect between what Labour members want and what the party wants according to the polls as well. This could cause a split among Labour much sooner than the Tories, seeing as they seem to me to put party ahead of country much more easily.

Same as the Tories. Both parties split and divided. May aswell have an MP swap or a session of musical chairs in the HOC and only stop the music when everyone is sitting on the right side. Either that or they can have 1 new party from each of Labour and Tories and 1 for the ERG. At least there would be some options and more clearly defined positions.

Enzokk

Bit cynical wrote: »

Basically, he would lose Leave voting labour constituencies.

He is going to lose Sunderland and Newcastle to the Tories?

J Mysterio wrote: »

Yes, I guess that's fair enough, but that would br the voter level or 'the grassroots' whereas the Guardian seem to be implying that MPs from the parliamentary party are threatening resignations. I thought most Labour MPs back the second vote and Corbyn had no interest. So, seems bizarre.

I really don't know how they get these numbers, but I am not close to the party though. There seems to be a disconnect between what Labour members want and what the party wants according to the polls as well. This could cause a split among Labour much sooner than the Tories, seeing as they seem to me to put party ahead of country much more easily.

FrancieBrady

The View on BBC atm is very good and interesting.

Capt'n Midnight

J Mysterio wrote: »

Im not sure WW is kosher here

The May kicking the can one got me, because that is exactly what she's doing.

And that disaster capitalist would love a fire sale.

And the UK media have been projecting wishful thinking as news.