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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Bit cynical

J Mysterio wrote: »

I thought that much of Labour wanted a second referendum?

Did I get that wrong? I thought Corbyn himself did not want a referendum.

Corbyn doesn't particularly want a referendum although he is at pains not to rule one out in order to keep campaigners on side.

But any MP from a Leave constituency will be dead set against a referendum as no one who voted Leave will vote for the party that does not respect that vote.

As I see it, it is not simply a case of numbers. The vehemence of constituents is also an issue. Not holding a referendum may disappoint some Remain voters but many of them will also accept that a referendum was already held but they were on the wrong side of it.

On the other hand, Leave voters will be actively angry if their vote is not respected and will change their party voting accordingly. The other party will mop them up.

J Mysterio

Bit cynical wrote: »

Basically, he would lose Leave voting labour constituencies.

Yes, I guess that's fair enough, but that would br the voter level or 'the grassroots' whereas the Guardian seem to be implying that MPs from the parliamentary party are threatening resignations. I thought most Labour MPs back the second vote and Corbyn had no interest. So, seems bizarre.

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Polls of UK opinion at the minute would have to be taken with a massive pinch of salt.
The government is confused, as is parliament..what must the electorate be like.

The point is that even if the Lib Dems treble the % they got last time out they'll still be ignored unless there is a hung parliament.

Or in other words if there is a GE it won't change much.
A pro-Brexit party with red lines and demands for rainbow unicorns will be in power.

And that's the best option, it's more likely to be a weak government needing to placate the extremists or worse a supply and confidence deal with the DUP or SNP or even UKIP who have a very clear agenda.

J Mysterio

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

May Delays Brexit Vote Until 30th Of February

“Rather Her Than Me” Insists Cameron Sipping Cocktail On Beach

This one is worth a read
Rees Mogg Straps Steam Powered Explosive To Chest, Demands Worst Brexit Possible

Waterford Whispers is more factual than some of the UK media at this stage.

Im not sure WW is kosher here but boy did this make me laugh:

"Cameron, famous for allegedly fucķing a dead pig and then fucķing over a dead empire by forcing a referendum on membership of the EU"

Bit cynical

Basically, he would lose Leave voting labour constituencies.

J Mysterio

Bit cynical wrote: »

Why is it confusing may I ask?

I thought that much of Labour wanted a second referendum?

Did I get that wrong? I thought Corbyn himself did not want a referendum.

Capt'n Midnight

May Delays Brexit Vote Until 30th Of February

“Rather Her Than Me” Insists Cameron Sipping Cocktail On Beach

This one is worth a read

Rees Mogg Straps Steam Powered Explosive To Chest, Demands Worst Brexit Possible

Waterford Whispers is more factual than some of the UK media at this stage.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Guardian headline for tomorrow is 'Corbyn faces revolts if he looks for second referendum'.

That is very confusing indeed.

I am confused as well. Labour has been in favour of a soft Brexit and most of their MPs are against leaving, yet they don't want to campaign for a second referendum? I have to wonder whether there is some politicking going on in the party in favour of Corbyn and these threats are only there to enhance Corbyn's position. Either that or he is terrible at getting the party behind the conference position. How does he think he will command government of he cannot get them to follow the Labour party position as per the conference?

Bit cynical

J Mysterio wrote: »

Guardian headline for tomorrow is 'Corbyn faces revolts if he looks for second referendum'.

That is very confusing indeed.

Why is it confusing may I ask?

J Mysterio

Guardian headline for tomorrow is 'Corbyn faces revolts if he looks for second referendum'.

That is very confusing indeed.

Call me Al

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Was watching BBC NI earlier where they had a report on the border near Cavan and one of the locals interviewed said Nigel Dodds' father Joe worked as a customs officer. Found this a surprise and turns out it's true. From the Belfast Telegraph:

So Dodds would know about customs more than most given his father's profession, yet just a few days ago was willing to stand over Arlene's recent comments that there had never been a hard border. Lamentable but not at all surprising.

Sure that means nothing to him.
Her comment was an example of a situation where the people that care don't matter, and the people that matter don't care.

FrancieBrady

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Corby wants a GE even though he's behind in the polls.

There must be something in the water over there.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-polls-worry/

The other big takeaway here is that Lib Dems on 11% is meaningless unless there is a hung parliament. They got EIGHT seats , that's less than the DUP from 7.9% of the vote in 2015.

And 11% is less than half of the 23% they got in 2010 when they got 57 Seats. Which is one more than 56 the SNP got in 2015. And the SNP have been virtually ignored in Westminster.

Polls of UK opinion at the minute would have to be taken with a massive pinch of salt.
The government is confused, as is parliament..what must the electorate be like.

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

I agree that it would take more polls and probably a wider margin. But it's moving in the right direction (from my POV). Of course there isn't much time left.

I don't think as many people would fall for the Leavers campaign slogans in a second referendum though as did in 2016. But any campaign is going to be risky. Look at May in the UK GE in 2017. She was miles ahead of Labour going into the campaign and ended up needing the DUP to keep her in power.

But this close to the end date and there are still ever brexiters thinking that the sunlit uplands are just the toss of a unicorn's horn away. The way I see it, there's a fatigue element creeping in and also a hardening of attitudes with the fear of the prize being taken away. It's madness, but 44% still thinking it's a good idea is the bit you should be looking at.

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He's playing a fairly old political game - he wants the Tories to go down in flames and knows he just has to wait, so he asks for something he knows May cannot give, in fairness to her.

Corby wants a GE even though he's behind in the polls.

There must be something in the water over there.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-polls-worry/

A new YouGov poll for the Times put the Conservatives on 41 per cent support, six points ahead of Labour on 35 per cent. The Liberal Democrats were on 11 per cent and Ukip on 4 per cent.

A BMG Research survey this week put the Tories and Labour level-pegging on 36 per cent, with the Lib Dems on 12 per cent and Ukip on 6 per cent.

The other big takeaway here is that Lib Dems on 11% is meaningless unless there is a hung parliament. They got EIGHT seats , that's less than the DUP from 7.9% of the vote in 2015.

And 11% is less than half of the 23% they got in 2010 when they got 57 Seats. Which is one more than 56 the SNP got in 2015. And the SNP have been virtually ignored in Westminster.

Strazdas

kippy wrote: »

Simply stated, as an EU Citizen your legal rights fundamentally change when Brexit happens to varying degrees based on the deal that is or is not reached.
I am not saying that the EU need Britain more than Britain needs the EU, just that the impact of this effects every single citizens rights in a way that state bailouts etc didn't and they assumption that state bailouts were 100 times worse than this cannot be backed up for a number of years.
Brexit is not good for anyone.

The 2008 crash and the subsequent bank bailouts for the likes of Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus were way more serious events than Brexit. Have a look around Europe......nobody is even discussing Brexit, it's relegated to page 10 or page 15 in most continental newspapers. Merkel has given many press conferences in the last six months where she hasn't even mentioned the UK when discussing the issues facing Germany.

The British right wing rags and the chancers who write for them are spinning it as some huge crisis that has all of Europe on tenterhooks and wondering what will happen next.

seamus

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

I also assume that the EU27 will stand together and try to reduce any countries loss based on trade lost with the UK. However the UK should not forget in all this....they have more need for the EU27 than the other way around.

Not only that, but the EU has trade deals with the rest of the planet...the UK does not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_United_Kingdom

Leaving aside the mess that is "what if there is no deal" and it's impact on the UK exporting into the EU, look at the non-EU trading partners:

USA, Switzerland, China, UAE, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, South Korea.

Between them account for two-thirds of the UK's non-EU trade (just over one-third of the total).

How many of these have the UK negotiated a new trade deal with? None, as far as I can see.

So they drop out on 30th March, and suddenly exports to these countries fall under WTO rules, cost shoots up, and anyone currently importing from the UK gets worried. How long can they survive on the stock they have? 2 weeks? A month? How long will it take for my country to set up a trade deal and allow me to keep my supply chain moving?
Hong Kong and Saudi might move quickly. But the USA & China? No way.

So, they too will switch to a supplier outside of the UK.

No deal can't happen. It's suicide.

Capt'n Midnight

News dump. #2

France millions on Brexit preparations.
You can feel any goodwill evaporating. The UK may have to stump up if there are revisions to the WA.
Which is worse politically , wasting money or having to fire lots of customs officers if the UK retract Brexit ?

Philips to close last UK manufacturing plant, putting 430 jobs at risk Obviously nothing to do with Brexit....

Lotus cars will now be made in China because Geely bought them a while back.

kippy

Strazdas wrote: »

Analysts and economists have the numbers for how interconnected each EU country is to the UK. Many in the east, central Europe and the south will barely be impacted at all. It's really only those in the north like Ireland, NL, Bel, Ger, Fra, Den and Swe that are more exposed to varying degrees.

Most reckon though that No Deal would be so catastrophic for the UK that it would have to return to the negotiating table within days or weeks to try and salvage something from the wreckage. The idea of Britain being in ten years of a No Deal set up is fantasy stuff being peddled by the English hard right.

Simply stated, as an EU Citizen your legal rights fundamentally change when Brexit happens to varying degrees based on the deal that is or is not reached.
I am not saying that the EU need Britain more than Britain needs the EU, just that the impact of this effects every single citizens rights in a way that state bailouts etc didn't and they assumption that state bailouts were 100 times worse than this cannot be backed up for a number of years.
Brexit is not good for anyone.

bilston

prawnsambo wrote: »

I know that looks like a good margin, but I don't think it's nearly wide enough for comfort. Until remain is well into the 60s to be honest. And that's just based on my feeling that the same old tripe would be served up and swallowed whole. My view for the last year has been that it's up to parliament, they have the tools and they can make the ballsy decision and stop the whole stupid thing.

I agree that it would take more polls and probably a wider margin. But it's moving in the right direction (from my POV). Of course there isn't much time left.

I don't think as many people would fall for the Leavers campaign slogans in a second referendum though as did in 2016. But any campaign is going to be risky. Look at May in the UK GE in 2017. She was miles ahead of Labour going into the campaign and ended up needing the DUP to keep her in power.

FrancieBrady

bilston wrote: »

I don't think Corbyn is handling this well at all.

On the on hand he tells May to drop her red lines with the EU. On the other he creates his own red line for talking to May...the irony...

He's playing a fairly old political game - he wants the Tories to go down in flames and knows he just has to wait, so he asks for something he knows May cannot give, in fairness to her.

bilston

I don't think Corbyn is handling this well at all.

On the on hand he tells May to drop her red lines with the EU. On the other he creates his own red line for talking to May...the irony...

Phonehead

RobMc59 wrote: »

Just my opinion but I`d say no one wins- we`ll probably all be worse off.

I don't think there has ever really been any major thinking from the EU side that there is a winner from Brexit. The puzzling thing I find, a hard Brexit is the UK shooting itself in the head while the EU takes a bullet to the leg. We could both agree to take a sprained ankle but it seems Britain doesn't want that option as it means agreeing to abide by EU standards etc.

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

Not sure if this has made onto the thread yet but a YouGov poll from yesterday gives Remain 56% and Leave 44%.

That's the biggest gap in favour I've seen for Remain yet. A few more of those, particularly if the 12 point gap increases and then the voices calling for a People's Vote will grow louder and louder.

Three options as I see it

1) Britain stays leaves the EU but stays in the Customs Union (under whatever description)

2) There is a No Deal Brexit

3) There is a 2nd Referendum

I know that looks like a good margin, but I don't think it's nearly wide enough for comfort. Until remain is well into the 60s to be honest. And that's just based on my feeling that the same old tripe would be served up and swallowed whole. My view for the last year has been that it's up to parliament, they have the tools and they can make the ballsy decision and stop the whole stupid thing.

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

The problems with that is that they have no control over immigration or trade deals. This is two very important aspects that was sold to people who voted leave and Theresa May has them as her red lines as well. Also, it is a worse deal for the UK than they have now which can be used to hammer the government that signs on to this with.

The UK has complete control over immigration from India and China which isn't even in The Commonwealth.

And yet May who has a red line of 100,000 for immigration let in more than that from just those two countries.

The reality is the UK don't use the controls they claim to need.

Strazdas

kippy wrote: »

I don't know how you can say that without seeing the thing play out over the next decade or so to be straight about it.

Every single state will be effected by Brexit, whether there is a deal or whether there is no deal - indeed every citizen of the EU will be effected, some more than others.

Analysts and economists have the numbers for how interconnected each EU country is to the UK. Many in the east, central Europe and the south will barely be impacted at all. It's really only those in the north like Ireland, NL, Bel, Ger, Fra, Den and Swe that are more exposed to varying degrees.

Most reckon though that No Deal would be so catastrophic for the UK that it would have to return to the negotiating table within days or weeks to try and salvage something from the wreckage. The idea of Britain being in ten years of a No Deal set up is fantasy stuff being peddled by the English hard right.

Irishmale0399

kippy wrote: »

I don't know how you can say that without seeing the thing play out over the next decade or so to be straight about it.

Every single state will be effected by Brexit, whether there is a deal or whether there is no deal - indeed every citizen of the EU will be effected, some more than others.

The question is very simple.....who needs who more???

Where do the UK plan to earn money in the future??? Where should the jobs come from???
If the EU says to them tomorrow...listen no trade deals. Is there something UK has that the EU needs or is there something that the other EU27 cannot produce or supply that the UK can???

Even the banking sector is slowly leaving London.....

bilston

Not sure if this has made onto the thread yet but a YouGov poll from yesterday gives Remain 56% and Leave 44%.

That's the biggest gap in favour I've seen for Remain yet. A few more of those, particularly if the 12 point gap increases and then the voices calling for a People's Vote will grow louder and louder.

Three options as I see it

1) Britain stays leaves the EU but stays in the Customs Union (under whatever description)

2) There is a No Deal Brexit

3) There is a 2nd Referendum

Capt'n Midnight

RobMc59 wrote: »

Just my opinion but I`d say no one wins- we`ll probably all be worse off.

Yes. No one wins.

We will be hit badly, but our economy is growing. So it's a years growth for us.

For other EU countries it's a lower impact but they have lower growth.

The UK economy is just ticking over so four or five years of recent growth gone, for NI it's a decade wiped out. But there's no reason to think growth will increase so they'll be going backwards.

Irishmale0399

Strazdas wrote: »

The 2008 financial crash and subsequent bank bailouts of several EU states was 100 times worse an event than a No Deal Brexit. I get the impression that Brexiteers think the two events would be on a par (this is what they are being told by the Daily Telegraph).

Many of the EU27 would be barely impacted at all by Britain crashing out. It's only a few of the UK's closer neighbours like Ireland, Netherlands and Belgium that are more exposed.

Thats exactly it....they forget that the EU is stronger than the UK....they are no longer an empire.

I also assume that the EU27 will stand together and try to reduce any countries loss based on trade lost with the UK. However the UK should not forget in all this....they have more need for the EU27 than the other way around.

kippy

Strazdas wrote: »

The 2008 financial crash and subsequent bank bailouts of several EU states was 100 times worse an event than a No Deal Brexit. I get the impression that Brexiteers think the two events would be on a par (this is what they are being told by the Daily Telegraph).

Many of the EU27 would be barely impacted at all by Britain crashing out. It's only a few of the UK's closer neighbours like Ireland, Netherlands and Belgium that are more exposed.

I don't know how you can say that without seeing the thing play out over the next decade or so to be straight about it.

Every single state will be effected by Brexit, whether there is a deal or whether there is no deal - indeed every citizen of the EU will be effected, some more than others.