Eric Cartman wrote: » Makes me think the credit cap should have been lower, but seems they set it exactly high enough for all the idiots from last time to get out of negative equity.
Graham wrote: » Don't mock, there's every chance they are on a tracker paying less than half the amount their neighbours are spending to rent an identical property.
Eric Cartman wrote: » very true, but the strategic defaulting, the upside down loans, the vacant properties etc... are causing problems for the rest of us from banks being allowed to lend to supply constraints. the same people who in late 07 / early 08 took out 102% mortgages at 5-8x sallary are the exact ones who have lobbied the banks and government to prevent reposessions and are clutching to their BTL's because they think property investment shouldnt go bad and wouldnt do the decent thing and walk away taking a 50-75k hit on a bad investment
dor843088 wrote: » A surprising but true little nugget of info is the difference between a 300k mortgage on 1% (tracker) bought lets say 2007 and a 150k 3.5% mortgage bought right at the bottom in 2013 or so is around 40k over the 30 years all said and done. Factor in the 5 years of rent and it's pretty much negligible difference.
mkdon wrote: » the last few messages are miles off the actual threat topic of property in 2019. Can we stick to the programme here? There is little mention of brexit impact on 2019 property market or the global slowdown interesting piece below:https://dailyreckoning.com/revealed-when-recession-starts/
The FOMC repeated its concern about inflation, saying that 'core' price pressures excluding food and energy were 'somewhat elevated' but "seem likely to moderate over time." The statement added that a key risk is that 'the high level of resource utilisation has the potential to sustain those pressures,' a reference to tight labor market conditions.
Foreign direct investment from China into the United States plummeted by 83% in 2018. Not only are Chinese firms drastically scaling back investments, but they've embarked on a record-setting wave of sales of real estate, hospitality and entertainment businesses. Another $12 billion of Chinese assets around the world are expected to be sold this year, the report said.
awec wrote: » It's not all repeating itself. The situation now is entirely different to 2007. The reasons for Ireland property boom back then were entirely different. If anything like 2007 happens again any time soon Ireland and the EU is finished. Someone's mortgage will be the least of their worries. Property prices will come down eventually. It is inevitable. I doubt there is anyone in denial about this.
Pussyhands wrote: » History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes.
Pussyhands wrote: » No doubt the chinese have their finger in the pie here too.https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/14/investing/china-foreign-direct-investment/index.html
Pussyhands wrote: » I've had an eye on daft for about a year now. I see the same overpriced houses still on there. The good houses that are good quality are going but the ones which are expensive but not maybe the neatest or in the best areas are staying put. You just need to go back 12 years to see it's all repeating itself. I'm looking at an rte archive from 2007 and it's talking about a show "I'm an adult, get me out of here" - a show about young people living at home with parents help and them trying to find people a home to move into. Very similar to Brendan Courtneys show about finding a place to rent for people living with their folks.https://web.archive.org/web/20070513042226/http://www.rte.ie:80/business/2007/0509/FED.html Just look at what the fed were saying 12 years ago: This is exactly what's happening now, we're at full employment, salaries are going up. This means more money, meaning higher prices of housing. Salaries can't go to infinity...but they can be driven far above what they should be. Then something will happen like Apple will fail to meet targets and they cut back 10,000 jobs, which has a knock on effect to subbies etc. There will be something big this year or next regarding the economy. We don't know yet but there's lots to be concerned about.
Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: » I agree with some of your points pussyhands but regards property here, it's a good thing when terrible or untidy properties aren't selling, it's a sign that there is a lack of desperation among property buyers right now.
donkeyoaty0099 wrote: » What has this got to do with the Irish property market?
Pussyhands wrote: » Considering many many people claim that foreign investors are driving up prices here I think it's relevant.
The_Conductor wrote: » I think its more a minor echo- thankfully, many people have been saved from themselves this time round- between CB income rules and the general exemptions. Also- while we may be building in atrocious locations- we don't have a runaway building sector- as we had the last time round. We are a silly silly people though.
Bob24 wrote: » Agree as a country we have been less reckless than the last time around. Having said that I also think the consequences of the last crisis still haven’t been fully resolved. So in spite of being more (but probably still not enough) carefull this time around, I am not completely sure a new crisis would be milder ... some people from the last crisis who thought they had finally managed to put their head above water or were about to do so might be pushed down again and joined by a new cohort. And that’s not too mention the global economic and political context which is probably more worrying than it was before the previous crisis.
donkeyoaty0099 wrote: » The article is to do with Chinese money leaving the US. Which is undoubtedly being directed from the top as part of the ongoing trade war. Really don't see the relevance to the Irish market
beaz2018 wrote: » So what are people supposed to do? keep renting on the premise that there will be cheap and plentiful houses in a few years because of a recession? What about if they lose their job/take a cut in pay as part of that recession?
Pussyhands wrote: » Did you even read the article? 5.5 billion taken from the US last year, with 12 billion of WORLDWIDE assets taken out this year.
Bob24 wrote: » My point was more about describing the situation than telling people what they should do or not. Having said if someone was asking for advice i would say that while buying isn’t necessarily a bad idea, one should only do it with a good deposit (minimum 20% of the house prices, ideally 30% or more) and make sure they could still manage their budget with let’s say a 3% interest rise combined to the loss of one income in the household. IMO buying with an exception or even at the bottom of the current rules (especially the 10% LTV for part of an FTB’s mortgage) is too risky.
Pussyhands wrote: » It's more likely to end up better than getting an inflated mortgage for 35 years, then potentially losing your job and then house...yeah. If people are able to buy now, that means they need a deposit. That deposit is still there in a recession/job loss. In a once in a lifetime recession there were still 86/100 people in work. Your deposit increases in buying power, your repayments are lower because you have a smaller loan.
awec wrote: It's not all repeating itself. The situation now is entirely different to 2007. The reasons for Ireland property boom back then were entirely different.
donkeyoaty0099 wrote: » I wouldn't say there's many that could afford a 3 % increase coupled with the loss of a salary. You have to assume (depending on your line of work) that your salary is going to generally increase as your career progresses. So a mortgage that is a stretch this year may not be in 5 years time. That's what happened to us in any case. I do take your point that it's a gamble though
