nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

bilston

Britain to stay in the Customs Union? Even Liam Fox is hinting at that tonight.

hotmail.com

bilston wrote:

Britain to stay in the Customs Union? Even Liam Fox is hinting at that tonight.

Liam Fox has to be one of the dumbest cabinet ministers in recent times. I actually just think he's just stupid.

Itssoeasy

So I didn't bother watching the statement and from reading the posts above me, it seems I made the right call. The UK is the titanic and brexit is the iceberg and they will hit it.

Donald Trump

PeadarCo wrote: »

Offer a voice. Having listened to some of the debate an alternative view in the UK parliament would make a difference. People with some understanding of the issues might enlighten some people. It also has be better than essentially allow the DUP to represent NI. While the majority in the North don't want a hard border the position of NI in Westminster is the DUP position. Given the head count nature of the North the DUP won't suffer unduly in elections. Given the DUPs position it is disappointing that they are allowed to represent NI unopposed in the place where the decision around a hard border will arguably be made.

And sure why would the other British MPs worry about NI given that the NI representatives tell them that there was never a hard border between NI and ROI anyway, or the modified version that it was only there to stop Republican terrorists which it failed to do anyway.

People should never underestimate the ignorance of a British person towards Ireland. Even their elected MPs. Including some who think that they can get a flight to Dublin, walk off the plan, into the passport office and get a passport immediately by virtue of being British.

They don't care about the North. And care even less if the only people from there tell them they're up for the hard Brexit.

Lemming

hotmail.com wrote: »

Liam Fox has to be one of the dumbest cabinet ministers in recent times. I actually just think he's just stupid.

And a disgraced former minister at that; forced to step down as defence minister after abuse of his position to further the economic interests of his long standing 'friend' Adam Werritty.

Woefully inept, and at best incredibly naive & suggestible, if not deeply corrupt at worst.

FrancieBrady

PeadarCo wrote: »

Offer a voice. Having listened to some of the debate an alternative view in the UK parliament would make a difference. People with some understanding of the issues might enlighten some people. It also has be better than essentially allow the DUP to represent NI. While the majority in the North don't want a hard border the position of NI in Westminster is the DUP position. Given the head count nature of the North the DUP won't suffer unduly in elections. Given the DUPs position it is disappointing that they are allowed to represent NI unopposed in the place where the decision around a hard border will arguably be made.

The EU are standing full square behind the people of NI who wish to stay in the Eu and you say SF's voice isn't being heard? How utterly ridiculous that is.
Fine Gael along with some posters here were against special status for northern Ireland and were convinced to change and again you say the voice of those in the north and those representing them wasn't heard...tenuous.
Before SF came to prominence the nationalist people of the north certainly were not heard, either in London or Dublin.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Donald Trump wrote: »

They don't care about the North.

Which makes the Britannia arse licking by the DUP even more confusing. They are like the desperate love infatuated person in a relationship with someone that doesn't care about them.

BonnieSituation

rockatansky wrote: »

Nothing, the poster you are referring to just has an unhealthy obsession with everything Sinn Fein.

Ah I know our Blanch has an issue with SF. So much so he makes me look like a Shinner with my responses.

Donald Trump wrote: »

I'm going to go out on a crazy limb here and say that they could use them.

How? To do what with them?

Maybe you don't understand how SF are thought of, but you realise that anything they would vote for would be a red rag to a bull and they would see people changing sides in their droves to not look like they were on the side of the IRA. SF will not enter the HoC in a vacuum.

AS well as the voting issue, you obviously you thought this through and have a solution to SF, the Republican party, turning up at Westminster and declaring an oath to a foreign monarch.

And doing all this while going against the stated aim to abstain from a Westminster which their constituents elect them to do.

SF are irrelevant. SF NI MPs don't count for any of this. They have as much say in Brexit as you or I or any random poster on here. So they should be treated as such.

Well, they are not irrelevant. They see it their duty to speak for their constituents in all the fora available to them as before.

It is not SF's fault that the English people are having an identity crisis. AND it will not be SF and their 7 votes that will solve it.

But you're a smart cookie. You surely have the solution... Don't you?

If the people in SFs constituencies and indeed in Belfast South would rather elect a nationalist MP that would take their seat in London they are more than welcome to vote for the SDLP in that case. But they don't. So what about ya?

DUP now. They're a party with influence belying their size. Unfortunately so. But such is life.

A unionist party in a unionist parliament having undue influence? Well I never. Dya know what a confidence and supply agreement is?

blanch152 wrote: »

It is not just their votes, it is their voices, it is their contribution.

And what would you expect them to say in a parliament that they and the people that vote for them think is illegitamate and is tearing itsef apart?

But hey, sitting in the stands as impotent spectators shouting ignorant encouragement and criticism by turn is their preferred role. They could well be pictured as the stereotypical drunken English club fan who loves his team one minute and excoriates them the next, all the while making no sense at all and not having the courage to realise that the ones on the pitch are the ones actually doing the job.

What sense are SF not making? What team are they loving and then hating the next? You realise that their "antics" are considered by their constituents to be the correct course of action.

PeadarCo wrote: »

Offer a voice.

What would that voice say?

Having listened to some of the debate an alternative view in the UK parliament would make a difference.

You expect SF/IRA to enlighten people in Britain?

Jesus. If they don't listen to the eloquence and intelligence of the SNP what hope to SF have.

People with some understanding of the issues might enlighten some people.

Like the SNP and LD and the likes of David Lammy and Anna Soubry? That's going well isn't it?

It also has be better than essentially allow the DUP to represent NI.

Let them at it. Their time will come to face thon music of what they've been up to. Most nationalist and moderate unionusts realise that. The DUP have been on the wrong side of history on almost every major issue in Irish history since their creation and lo and behold they're maing a pigs ear out of this and, shock horror, they're being triumphalist about it.

Be grand.

While the majority in the North don't want a hard border the position of NI in Westminster is the DUP position.

It's not though.

Given the head count nature of the North the DUP won't suffer unduly in elections. Given the DUPs position it is disappointing that they are allowed to represent NI unopposed in the place where the decision around a hard border will arguably be made.

They will be milled out of it.

Itssoeasy

Listening to late debate and while we are laughing at the HoC but it seems that Shane Ross is as clueless on the situation with the border.

BonnieSituation

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Which makes the Britannia arse licking by the DUP even more confusing. They are like the desperate love infatuated person in a relationship with someone that doesn't care about them.

It's what has always perplexed most of us about Irish Unionists...

Christy42

bilston wrote: »

France, Germany and Ireland all supposedly open to A50 being extended. Dominic Waghorn on Sky saying it ould be extended by up to a year.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that was not decided. Remember yesterday Reuters had the headline that Germany wanted to go back to the table when the quote was they doubt they will go back to the table?

Interesting though that the sign of the EU caving seems to be letting the UK stay for longer.

I don't know how many times I have read here that the UK press is reporting the EU is about to cave/ betray Ireland. They have yet to be right.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting scoop by the Telegraph on Hammond working to prevent a no-deal Brexit - appears the Boles Bill could very well be passed by the Commons.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/101065/mps-unveil-plan-seize-control-brexit-process-theresa-may

https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1085656849867653120

seamus

bilston wrote: »

France, Germany and Ireland all supposedly open to A50 being extended. Dominic Waghorn on Sky saying it ould be extended by up to a year.

The EU already ruled that out today, basically saying that the absolute limit for any extension is 23rd May (EU elections).

But probably earlier than that so the elections can go without incident, like 30th April.

What's happening now is that UK media (including Reuters UK) are leaping on the slightest bit of supposition from any foreign politician and trying to spin it as a possible.

Because they're unwilling to accept that this is already over. The UK is a Python-esque limbless knight, talking the big talk and claiming that they can fight, when it's clear to everyone else that they have nothing.

No deal or No brexit. It's time to **** or get off the pot.

gizmo23

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting scoop by the Telegraph on Hammond working to prevent a no-deal Brexit - appears the Boles Bill could very well be passed by the Commons.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/101065/mps-unveil-plan-seize-control-brexit-process-theresa-may

https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1085656849867653120

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1085639715611643904

It's already lost half it's amendment and has little chance of passing according to most.

Also apparently Boles is at a hi risk of deselection.

They literally block themselves at every turn

PeadarCo

FrancieBrady wrote:

The EU are standing full square behind the people of NI who wish to stay in the Eu and you say SF's voice isn't being heard? How utterly ridiculous that is. Fine Gael along with some posters here were against special status for northern Ireland and were convinced to change and again you say the voice of those in the north and those representing them wasn't heard...tenuous. Before SF came to prominence the nationalist people of the north certainly were not heard, either in London or Dublin.

It isn't been heard or more accurately the majority remain vote is not been in the UK parliament. SF and pretty much every other NI party bar the DUP are irrelevant as far as Westminster is concerned either due to seats not being taken or not being elected in the first place. One of the more interesting or shocking things about the whole process has been how clueless some UK politicians are. Raabs ignorance about the Dover Calais route being a prime example

For a hard border to be avoided either Ireland leaves the EU or the UK agrees to stay in the single market and customs union. Currently the DUP are representing NI. Some MPs are clueless as seen with Raab and seen in their attitude to the Irish government and the border. Now if SF actually took their seats they could actually knock some of the rubbish on it's head. In the current situation with stormont out of action SF are irrelevant to the debate in the place where the actual decision on the border will be taken. Now at this stage its far too late to change but it's a loss to the people of NI.

J Mysterio

So... Called Article 50 with no plan. Unilaterally decided what Brexit meant (Brexit). Put nasty or useless people in vital cabinet positions and allowed huge dissent and divison to take hold both in cabinet and in party. Chose unnecesary and limiting redlines. Made series of dubious, reaching speeches. Allowed her nasty Hostile Environment to fester. Called snap election and lost seats, decided to bribe support from DUP. Reneged on December deal. Accepted December deal again. Saw numerous colleagues resign and condemn her. Scraped through no confidence vote by own party. Delayed vital WA vote as she would lose it. Went begging for a letter from accomodating EU. Lost vital vote for Withdrawal Agreement, her raison d'etre. Scraped through No Confidence vote of entire HOC, supported by Unionist extremists and right wing Tories who hate her policies. Now finally looking to consult others RE: Brexit with just 60 odd days to go as she. has. no. choice.

I'm sure I missed a number of other major blunders or failures but it's basically just an unbelievable series of shocking examples of bad judgement. Over 2.5 years. UK/ Irish/ EU public all raging at the ineptitude.

Nothing left to her now, she is the lamest duck that ever ducked. She essentially now needs others in parliament to make it easy for her by showing the way as she hopes the EU might mollycoddle her again. I dont see how that happens as she will need to change course quite wildly.

May is so weak and withered now though. The pressure is enormous. But we are all tired and exasperated and everyone feels cheated. I was very interested to see the footage of Barnier after the WA failure, he looked quite shook. This has to end, but how now? It's all worse than ever before.

Hurrache

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Listening to late debate and while we are laughing at the HoC but it seems that Shane Ross is as clueless on the situation with the border.

He's clueless on everything, the ultimate hurler from the ditch when he was in opposition.

FrancieBrady

PeadarCo wrote: »

It isn't been heard or more accurately the majority remain vote is not been in the UK parliament. SF and pretty much every other NI party bar the DUP are irrelevant as far as Westminster is concerned either due to seats not being taken or not being elected in the first place. One of the more interesting or shocking things about the whole process has been how clueless some UK politicians are. Raabs ignorance about the Dover Calais route being a prime example

For a hard border to be avoided either Ireland leaves the EU or the UK agrees to stay in the single market and customs union. Currently the DUP are representing NI. Some MPs are clueless as seen with Raab and seen in their attitude to the Irish government and the border. Now if SF actually took their seats they could actually knock some of the rubbish on it's head. In the current situation with stormont out of action SF are irrelevant to the debate in the place where the actual decision on the border will be taken. Now at this stage its far too late to change but it's a loss to the people of NI.

The reason the UK cannot leave the EU the way they want (with cake) is because the voice of northern Ireland is so strong and because the EU has listened and heard it.
Agree to the terms, a backstop insuring the interests of Ireland and northern Ireland (laid down by SF at the very start of this, unlike FG) or leave with no deal.

J Mysterio

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The reason the UK cannot leave the EU the way they want (with cake) is because the voice of northern Ireland is so strong and because the EU has listened and heard it.
Agree to the terms, a backstop insuring the interests of Ireland and northern Ireland (laid down by SF at the very start of this, unlike FG) or leave with no deal.

That's definitely not right, FG have been very strong on NI and the backstop, whatever about Sinn Fein.

joeysoap

Peston is interesting. Basically the labour MPs saying Corbyn won’t talk to May unless no deal is off the table.

J Mysterio

joeysoap wrote: »

Peston is interesting. Basically the labour MPs saying Corbyn won’t talk to May unless no deal is off the table.

Fairly basic precondition and based on May's speech, one she did not accomodate.

FrancieBrady

J Mysterio wrote: »

That's definitely not right, FG have been very strong on NI and the backstop, whatever about Sinn Fein.

Not always, they had to be convinced. Kenny ruled it out in his day too, if you google.

A Sinn Féin spokesman described the outcome as disappointing but noted the amendment had not been put forward by the party.

“It is equally disappointing that both the DUP and Fine Gael MEPs voted against the democratically expressed will of the people of the north and Dáil Éireann,” he said. “Sinn Féin is continuing to build support for the case for the north to secure designated special status within the EU.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/european-parliament-rejects-special-status-for-northern-ireland-1.3144414

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/protesters-urge-kenny-to-demand-special-ni-brexit-deal-1.3060834

Spanish Eyes

OH Groan.....

I think I would lose the will to live if A50 is extended for a year.

Anyway if that did happen (and EU blinked first before more of the same after a year again), what happens with the MEP elections coming up for UK?

J Mysterio

Obama went grey after his term(s). They will have to cart away May and Barnier. I'm almost ready to go for a rest myself, it's torturous.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OH Groan.....

I think I would lose the will to live if A50 is extended for a year.

Anyway if that did happen (and EU blinked first before more of the same after a year again), what happens with the MEP elections coming up for UK?

Not a chance : this would meet huge resistance from several EU states (a country who had told the EU to get stuffed and triggered A50 still being a full member three years later and still slagging them off daily)

Spanish Eyes

Strazdas wrote: »

Not a chance : this would meet huge resistance from several EU states (a country who had told the EU to get stuffed and triggered A50 still being a full member three years later and still slagging them off daily)

I hope you are right.

The EU has played a splendid diplomatic game I think. I really hope they do not give too many more concessions to (as you say) a Government that appears to treat them with contempt.

Christy42

J Mysterio wrote: »

joeysoap wrote: »

Peston is interesting. Basically the labour MPs saying Corbyn won’t talk to May unless no deal is off the table.

Fairly basic precondition and based on May's speech, one she did not accomodate.

Surely it is one out of May's power to promise though. All she can do is argue for other things buy if the UK government passes nothing Brexit related between now and the 29th March they will go put on a No deal.

More guff to claim that they are not at fault IMO. Granted the entire thing is May just trying to spread the blame a bit.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I hope you are right.

The EU has played a splendid diplomatic game I think. I really hope they do not give too many more concessions to (as you say) a Government that appears to treat them with contempt.

Guy Verhofstadt thinks they would only get an extension of a few weeks at most :

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1085458645280788482

sandbelter

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OH Groan.....

I think I would lose the will to live if A50 is extended for a year.

I think it's a big mistake to extend A50. Listening to many reports a large number of MP's seem fixed on ensuring Brexit does happen and don't seem to think past it, I don't think they'll change focus until Brexit happens then their focus will what's the best deal around....which ironically could be when May's deal, with minor tweaks...gets past. I expect that turmoil in the markets will only expedite the need for a quick deal.

Under this scenario we're looking at no deal period of weeks, not months, but maybe necessary to break the deadlock and the inertia.

Just don;t think you'll break that inertia any other way now.

Peregrinus

bilston wrote: »

Britain to stay in the Customs Union? Even Liam Fox is hinting at that tonight.

hotmail.com wrote: »

Liam Fox has to be one of the dumbest cabinet ministers in recent times. I actually just think he's just stupid.

He's greedy. He's corrupt. And he's shameless. That combination can often look like stupidity. But, actually, he may not be stupid. And I don't think he is being stupid here.

May's tactical situation is that she clearly cannot craft a form of Brexit that will secure the assent of the Tory party; the party is too deeply split. Even the fairly hard Brexit that she has crafted does not satisfy the ultras in her own party. But move to an even harder Brexit and, even if she can get the EU to agree to it (which is most unlikely) she starts to lose more of the wets in her party. And given the parliamentary numbers, if she depends on the Tory part for parliamentary approval of her Brexit, the party has to be completely united. It's clear at this point that that ain't gonna happen.

So the only way she gets approval for a Brexit deal is by winning support from other parties. And the big point of difference between Tory and Labour on the terms of a Brexit deal is that Labour favours a permanent customs union. So that's the move the government needs to make if it's to have any chance of getting approval for a Brexit deal. And I think Fox can see this.

It's ironic, because of course it would make Fox's own position largely redundant - there'll be no Exciting New UK Trade Deals to negotiate. But his thinking may be that the best he can hope for at this stage is to get Brexit through, and treat the fight to leave the customs union as a battle for tomorrow.