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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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rusty the athlete

Peregrinus wrote: »

Except that the number of MPs who want to leave with no deal at all is the smallest group of all .

Correct. But again its a 'no majority' situation. There is no majority for anything in fact. And when folks talk about 'a majority' its the executive that must specifically raise a new bill, a revocation of any existing bill (A50), or an extension of A50 to have a majority over. She, as head of the executive, is totally unlikely to raise any amendment or new bill that could reconcile differences. You could even say that even if there is a 500 majority for x or y, unless x or y manifests itself in a bill of some sort, a 'majority' is meaningless. I fear the timeout 'hard' brexit is now completely inevitable.

Peregrinus

rusty the athlete wrote: »

The 'large number' wanting brexit is roughly a third, not enough for a majority. Another third would like to remain or remain with close ties; not enough for a majority. Roughly a third (202 of them to be exact) want the maybot 'deal'. Again, not enough for a majority. A50 stipulates they leave Mar 29 irrespective of there being deal or no deal. Since there is no conceivable majority for anything the law of the land states they simply leave without any agreements at all, ie, hard brexit.

Except that the number of MPs who want to leave with no deal at all is the smallest group of all - one-sixth of the Commons, maybe one-fifth, tops. And since the remainers, and most of the supports of May's deal, would dislike no-deal even more than they dislike one another's position, rationally they should be prepared to do a deal with one another for a Remainy Brexit rather than allow no deal to happen.

I know; people are not behaving entirely rationally here. But most of the truly batsh1t ones are in the "no-deal" camp; they're not the ones who have to make some concession to common sense for this to work.

rusty the athlete

sandbelter wrote: »

Listening to many reports a large number of MP's seem fixed on ensuring Brexit does happen and don't seem to think past it, I don't think they'll change focus until Brexit happens then their focus will what's the best deal around

The 'large number' wanting brexit is roughly a third, not enough for a majority. Another third would like to remain or remain with close ties; not enough for a majority. Roughly a third (202 of them to be exact) want the maybot 'deal'. Again, not enough for a majority. A50 stipulates they leave Mar 29 irrespective of there being deal or no deal. Since there is no conceivable majority for anything the law of the land states they simply leave without any agreements at all, ie, hard brexit.

Rain Ascending

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Now's good time to try to guess the next few moves in Westminister.

Extrapolating from some comments by a political correspondent on BBC's Newsnight, below is my attempt. It probably has a 1 in 10 chance of being close to right. I'll come back in about 10 day's time, say around Tuesday week (22 Jan) and see how close I got. I invite others to try the same exercise and see if anybody can get close to the eventual outcome!

1 Theresa May looses the vote on the WA on Tuesday, by over 100 and possibly 200.

Reason: The dislike of the WA is well known. The BBC have been tracking the public pronouncements and presumably are using their own intel to estimate that she will loose by over 200.

There are a number of implications for losing so heavily. For starters, going back to the EU for changes to the backstop won't work -- even if the EU were willing -- and they aren't, there is no guarantee that removing the backstop would be enough to get the deal over the line. There are probably enough ERG MPs that would still vote it down because of the £39B. Therefore, ironically, the ERG and the DUP are irrelevant from now on because Theresa May has only one route left to getting a deal through...

2 Theresa May will declare that she will try to find a coalition across the floor of the Commons.

She will put herself in the driving seat of that negotiation. Don't expect her to ask for multiple votes on various options. On the EU side, she'll look for a letter of comfort regarding the backstop, but (quietly) won't demand changes to the WA. Instead, she'll seek to reopen negotiations of the political declaration. Knowing that the WA would be otherwise dead, the EU will reluctantly agree.

The reason is simple: As noted above, getting the ERG and DUP on board is pointless, so only opposition votes can get the WA + amended political declaration through.

3 Corbyn will call for a vote of no confidence.

Reason: He won't then be able to delay any further in that call. With 50 to 100 Tory MPs voting against the deal, it's his best opportunity to attract a number of them to vote against Theresa May even thought the outcome would probably be a general election.

What happens at the vote depends on whether or not May can hold the cabinet together and keep the DUP on board for the vote of no confidence.

If the cabinet support doesn't fall apart completely then it's hard to see how can anybody else dislodge her as leader of the Tory party. Tory MPs can't call for another vote of no confidence in her leadership for another 11 months and so if there is a general election they would be stuck with her. This is the best possible incentive for Tory MPs to vote for her government in a vote of no confidence!!

The DUP will support her government if they don't believe she can get the WA through. The possibility of negotiating with Labour MPs, however, will make the DUP very nervous and more likely to accept the risks of a general election.

So,

4 (option #1) She wins the vote of no confidence, she then she tries to negotiate with firstly the Labour leadership and, failing that, with a grouping around the likes of Chuka Umunna.

4 (option #2) She loses either the cabinet or the DUP and loses the vote of no confidence. We're probably in general election territory unless a Remainer/soft Brexiteer tries for a government of national unity. A general election will imply a negotiation with the EU for an extension to Article 50.

And you can see that by step #4, my crystal ball is already getting cloudy...

I promised I'd go back and see how I did with my prediction. With the exception of the size of the defeat for the WA, it wasn't too far out.

Next? Much trickier to predict since there are now many more players in the game. However, some general principles:

Theresa May is unlikely to succeed with cross-party efforts. That's based on her personality -- she's not a negotiator and is unlikely to give the likes of David Lidington enough authority and freedom to do so.
So it's down to people like Peter Boles, Dominic Grieve, Hillary Benn, etc. to pull a rabbit from a hat by working across party lines.
I've seen speculation that Labour might allow a free vote. That would be significant in that it puts 200+ votes up for grabs in the House of Commons for an unofficial cross-party initiative. Jeremy Corbyn might like this because it leaves him free to continue with his fuzzy position on Brexit.
If such a cross-party initiative succeeds (big "if"!) then the question becomes how Theresa May will respond if some of her red lines are breached. Remember, it must be her that takes any consensus back to Brussels for negotiation...

tuxy

Dawn Butler Shadow Minister for Women and Equalities

AllForIt

Folkstonian wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1085647444027662337?s=21

Just an absolute shambles right now

The Labour party have never felt so happy to be in opposition, especially with the leader they have now. If you could call him a leader at all.

It's quite comical to me that when Corybn was elected leader there was an atmosphere of fundamental change but he's turned out to be the weakest leader of the opposition we've ever seen. He hasn't the first clue about what is going on and because of that he has no strategy or polices to resolve it.

Can anyone tell me who this black woman is to the right of Corbyn who can be seen almost every time he's at the dispatch box? Perhaps some token politician as bereft of competence like Diane Abbot.

Folkstonian

J Mysterio wrote: »

Fairly basic precondition and based on May's speech, one she did not accomodate.

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1085647444027662337?s=21

Just an absolute shambles right now

wiggle16

There's a certain amount of irony in the fact that, even though the entire idea of Brexit (sans the xenophobia that spawned it) is that the UK will be free to strike its own super-amazing trade deals "across the globe" as if the East India Tea Company will be setting sail again, they barely managed to negotiate this one, after two and a half years, and they don't even want it.

I know this deal is more than just a trade deal in that it's to set out the UK's future legal relationship with the EU and the border is a fatal complication, but in this case they were negotiating with an economic power that doesn't want to hurt them or exploit them. How are they going to fare against the US or China etc when this shítshow is the best they could manage? They are seriously overestimating their own clout and paying no heed to the fact that other nations want good trade deals for themselves, not for the UK.

As Seamus has said, at this point, it's over. May does not have the time to get a new deal nor the mandate, the EU will not consider another one and the reactions from the EU over the last 24 hours has shown that they are fed up and want to be shot of the whole thing at this stage. The only realistic grounds, I believe, upon which Article 50 would be extended would be if the UK were to call a referendum for the deal vs Remain - and with the EU elections coming up there isn't time for that either (the legal minimum period between calling a referendum and voting in the UK is ten weeks, never mind organising it) in addition to the fact that the UK is historically averse to referendums in general, as they've only ever had 3 UK wide referendums and they are not legally binding on the government.

Peregrinus

bilston wrote: »

Britain to stay in the Customs Union? Even Liam Fox is hinting at that tonight.

hotmail.com wrote: »

Liam Fox has to be one of the dumbest cabinet ministers in recent times. I actually just think he's just stupid.

He's greedy. He's corrupt. And he's shameless. That combination can often look like stupidity. But, actually, he may not be stupid. And I don't think he is being stupid here.

May's tactical situation is that she clearly cannot craft a form of Brexit that will secure the assent of the Tory party; the party is too deeply split. Even the fairly hard Brexit that she has crafted does not satisfy the ultras in her own party. But move to an even harder Brexit and, even if she can get the EU to agree to it (which is most unlikely) she starts to lose more of the wets in her party. And given the parliamentary numbers, if she depends on the Tory part for parliamentary approval of her Brexit, the party has to be completely united. It's clear at this point that that ain't gonna happen.

So the only way she gets approval for a Brexit deal is by winning support from other parties. And the big point of difference between Tory and Labour on the terms of a Brexit deal is that Labour favours a permanent customs union. So that's the move the government needs to make if it's to have any chance of getting approval for a Brexit deal. And I think Fox can see this.

It's ironic, because of course it would make Fox's own position largely redundant - there'll be no Exciting New UK Trade Deals to negotiate. But his thinking may be that the best he can hope for at this stage is to get Brexit through, and treat the fight to leave the customs union as a battle for tomorrow.

sandbelter

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OH Groan.....

I think I would lose the will to live if A50 is extended for a year.

I think it's a big mistake to extend A50. Listening to many reports a large number of MP's seem fixed on ensuring Brexit does happen and don't seem to think past it, I don't think they'll change focus until Brexit happens then their focus will what's the best deal around....which ironically could be when May's deal, with minor tweaks...gets past. I expect that turmoil in the markets will only expedite the need for a quick deal.

Under this scenario we're looking at no deal period of weeks, not months, but maybe necessary to break the deadlock and the inertia.

Just don;t think you'll break that inertia any other way now.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I hope you are right.

The EU has played a splendid diplomatic game I think. I really hope they do not give too many more concessions to (as you say) a Government that appears to treat them with contempt.

Guy Verhofstadt thinks they would only get an extension of a few weeks at most :

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1085458645280788482

Christy42

J Mysterio wrote: »

joeysoap wrote: »

Peston is interesting. Basically the labour MPs saying Corbyn won’t talk to May unless no deal is off the table.

Fairly basic precondition and based on May's speech, one she did not accomodate.

Surely it is one out of May's power to promise though. All she can do is argue for other things buy if the UK government passes nothing Brexit related between now and the 29th March they will go put on a No deal.

More guff to claim that they are not at fault IMO. Granted the entire thing is May just trying to spread the blame a bit.

Spanish Eyes

Strazdas wrote: »

Not a chance : this would meet huge resistance from several EU states (a country who had told the EU to get stuffed and triggered A50 still being a full member three years later and still slagging them off daily)

I hope you are right.

The EU has played a splendid diplomatic game I think. I really hope they do not give too many more concessions to (as you say) a Government that appears to treat them with contempt.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OH Groan.....

I think I would lose the will to live if A50 is extended for a year.

Anyway if that did happen (and EU blinked first before more of the same after a year again), what happens with the MEP elections coming up for UK?

Not a chance : this would meet huge resistance from several EU states (a country who had told the EU to get stuffed and triggered A50 still being a full member three years later and still slagging them off daily)

J Mysterio

Obama went grey after his term(s). They will have to cart away May and Barnier. I'm almost ready to go for a rest myself, it's torturous.

Spanish Eyes

OH Groan.....

I think I would lose the will to live if A50 is extended for a year.

Anyway if that did happen (and EU blinked first before more of the same after a year again), what happens with the MEP elections coming up for UK?

FrancieBrady

J Mysterio wrote: »

That's definitely not right, FG have been very strong on NI and the backstop, whatever about Sinn Fein.

Not always, they had to be convinced. Kenny ruled it out in his day too, if you google.

A Sinn Féin spokesman described the outcome as disappointing but noted the amendment had not been put forward by the party.

“It is equally disappointing that both the DUP and Fine Gael MEPs voted against the democratically expressed will of the people of the north and Dáil Éireann,” he said. “Sinn Féin is continuing to build support for the case for the north to secure designated special status within the EU.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/european-parliament-rejects-special-status-for-northern-ireland-1.3144414

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/protesters-urge-kenny-to-demand-special-ni-brexit-deal-1.3060834

J Mysterio

joeysoap wrote: »

Peston is interesting. Basically the labour MPs saying Corbyn won’t talk to May unless no deal is off the table.

Fairly basic precondition and based on May's speech, one she did not accomodate.

joeysoap

Peston is interesting. Basically the labour MPs saying Corbyn won’t talk to May unless no deal is off the table.

J Mysterio

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The reason the UK cannot leave the EU the way they want (with cake) is because the voice of northern Ireland is so strong and because the EU has listened and heard it.
Agree to the terms, a backstop insuring the interests of Ireland and northern Ireland (laid down by SF at the very start of this, unlike FG) or leave with no deal.

That's definitely not right, FG have been very strong on NI and the backstop, whatever about Sinn Fein.

FrancieBrady

PeadarCo wrote: »

It isn't been heard or more accurately the majority remain vote is not been in the UK parliament. SF and pretty much every other NI party bar the DUP are irrelevant as far as Westminster is concerned either due to seats not being taken or not being elected in the first place. One of the more interesting or shocking things about the whole process has been how clueless some UK politicians are. Raabs ignorance about the Dover Calais route being a prime example

For a hard border to be avoided either Ireland leaves the EU or the UK agrees to stay in the single market and customs union. Currently the DUP are representing NI. Some MPs are clueless as seen with Raab and seen in their attitude to the Irish government and the border. Now if SF actually took their seats they could actually knock some of the rubbish on it's head. In the current situation with stormont out of action SF are irrelevant to the debate in the place where the actual decision on the border will be taken. Now at this stage its far too late to change but it's a loss to the people of NI.

The reason the UK cannot leave the EU the way they want (with cake) is because the voice of northern Ireland is so strong and because the EU has listened and heard it.
Agree to the terms, a backstop insuring the interests of Ireland and northern Ireland (laid down by SF at the very start of this, unlike FG) or leave with no deal.

Hurrache

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Listening to late debate and while we are laughing at the HoC but it seems that Shane Ross is as clueless on the situation with the border.

He's clueless on everything, the ultimate hurler from the ditch when he was in opposition.

J Mysterio

So... Called Article 50 with no plan. Unilaterally decided what Brexit meant (Brexit). Put nasty or useless people in vital cabinet positions and allowed huge dissent and divison to take hold both in cabinet and in party. Chose unnecesary and limiting redlines. Made series of dubious, reaching speeches. Allowed her nasty Hostile Environment to fester. Called snap election and lost seats, decided to bribe support from DUP. Reneged on December deal. Accepted December deal again. Saw numerous colleagues resign and condemn her. Scraped through no confidence vote by own party. Delayed vital WA vote as she would lose it. Went begging for a letter from accomodating EU. Lost vital vote for Withdrawal Agreement, her raison d'etre. Scraped through No Confidence vote of entire HOC, supported by Unionist extremists and right wing Tories who hate her policies. Now finally looking to consult others RE: Brexit with just 60 odd days to go as she. has. no. choice.

I'm sure I missed a number of other major blunders or failures but it's basically just an unbelievable series of shocking examples of bad judgement. Over 2.5 years. UK/ Irish/ EU public all raging at the ineptitude.

Nothing left to her now, she is the lamest duck that ever ducked. She essentially now needs others in parliament to make it easy for her by showing the way as she hopes the EU might mollycoddle her again. I dont see how that happens as she will need to change course quite wildly.

May is so weak and withered now though. The pressure is enormous. But we are all tired and exasperated and everyone feels cheated. I was very interested to see the footage of Barnier after the WA failure, he looked quite shook. This has to end, but how now? It's all worse than ever before.

PeadarCo

FrancieBrady wrote:

The EU are standing full square behind the people of NI who wish to stay in the Eu and you say SF's voice isn't being heard? How utterly ridiculous that is. Fine Gael along with some posters here were against special status for northern Ireland and were convinced to change and again you say the voice of those in the north and those representing them wasn't heard...tenuous. Before SF came to prominence the nationalist people of the north certainly were not heard, either in London or Dublin.

It isn't been heard or more accurately the majority remain vote is not been in the UK parliament. SF and pretty much every other NI party bar the DUP are irrelevant as far as Westminster is concerned either due to seats not being taken or not being elected in the first place. One of the more interesting or shocking things about the whole process has been how clueless some UK politicians are. Raabs ignorance about the Dover Calais route being a prime example

For a hard border to be avoided either Ireland leaves the EU or the UK agrees to stay in the single market and customs union. Currently the DUP are representing NI. Some MPs are clueless as seen with Raab and seen in their attitude to the Irish government and the border. Now if SF actually took their seats they could actually knock some of the rubbish on it's head. In the current situation with stormont out of action SF are irrelevant to the debate in the place where the actual decision on the border will be taken. Now at this stage its far too late to change but it's a loss to the people of NI.

gizmo23

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting scoop by the Telegraph on Hammond working to prevent a no-deal Brexit - appears the Boles Bill could very well be passed by the Commons.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/101065/mps-unveil-plan-seize-control-brexit-process-theresa-may

https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1085656849867653120

https://mobile.twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1085639715611643904

It's already lost half it's amendment and has little chance of passing according to most.

Also apparently Boles is at a hi risk of deselection.

They literally block themselves at every turn

seamus

bilston wrote: »

France, Germany and Ireland all supposedly open to A50 being extended. Dominic Waghorn on Sky saying it ould be extended by up to a year.

The EU already ruled that out today, basically saying that the absolute limit for any extension is 23rd May (EU elections).

But probably earlier than that so the elections can go without incident, like 30th April.

What's happening now is that UK media (including Reuters UK) are leaping on the slightest bit of supposition from any foreign politician and trying to spin it as a possible.

Because they're unwilling to accept that this is already over. The UK is a Python-esque limbless knight, talking the big talk and claiming that they can fight, when it's clear to everyone else that they have nothing.

No deal or No brexit. It's time to **** or get off the pot.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting scoop by the Telegraph on Hammond working to prevent a no-deal Brexit - appears the Boles Bill could very well be passed by the Commons.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/101065/mps-unveil-plan-seize-control-brexit-process-theresa-may

https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1085656849867653120

Christy42

bilston wrote: »

France, Germany and Ireland all supposedly open to A50 being extended. Dominic Waghorn on Sky saying it ould be extended by up to a year.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that was not decided. Remember yesterday Reuters had the headline that Germany wanted to go back to the table when the quote was they doubt they will go back to the table?

Interesting though that the sign of the EU caving seems to be letting the UK stay for longer.

I don't know how many times I have read here that the UK press is reporting the EU is about to cave/ betray Ireland. They have yet to be right.

BonnieSituation

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Which makes the Britannia arse licking by the DUP even more confusing. They are like the desperate love infatuated person in a relationship with someone that doesn't care about them.

It's what has always perplexed most of us about Irish Unionists...

Itssoeasy

Listening to late debate and while we are laughing at the HoC but it seems that Shane Ross is as clueless on the situation with the border.