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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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ToBeFrank123

Northern Ireland has far more to lose from a hard border, customs checks, delays etc than the south on the island of Ireland.

In 2016, 30 per cent of Northern Ireland’s exports – £2 billion (€2.3 billion) – were sent to the Republic; a much greater percentage than the goods going the other way. Just 1 per cent of the Republic’s exports, worth £1 billion, went to Northern Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/report-reveals-extent-of-north-s-dependence-on-trade-with-the-republic-1.3539430

That being said we will suffer from transporting to the UK mainland and using it as a land route to the continent.

There's no real winners with a hard border and no deal Brexit. The DUP are shooting themselves and their voters in the foot.

J Mysterio

Hurrache wrote: »

An excellent website on the border, with a great interactive map to each border crossing and associated terrorist incidents that occurred at each one.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/borderlands/keeping-peace
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/borderlands/the-border

That's a great resource. Nice one.

Winters

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They're lying. There was a customs border from 1923 to 1993 until the advent of the Single Market.

And trade has changed so much in the 25+ years since then also.

Risteard81

Thomas_IV wrote: »

I'd rather reckon with the UK not requesting an extension but just go full no-deal Brexit by 29th March 2019.

I believe No Deal would be the best outcome, and it's about time someone taught the so-called "EU" this lesson. Theresa May's "deal" (it wasn't actually agreed given that it was rejected) is appalling and a no deal hard Brexit frankly was always the best outcome. It is a nonsense to suggest that no-one supports a no deal scenario.

lawred2

Risteard81 wrote: »

I believe No Deal would be the best outcome, and it's about time someone taught the so-called "EU" this lesson. Theresa May's "deal" (it wasn't actually agreed given that it was rejected) is appalling and a no deal hard Brexit frankly was always the best outcome. It is a nonsense to suggest that no-one supports a no deal scenario.

What's with all this so called nonsense?

MrMusician18

lawred2 wrote: »

What's with all this so called nonsense?

The laundry must be done with all the socks around here

thefishone

Has anyone asked the people of NI something like this.

Now that brexit is going to happen,which would you prefer,

1-Hard border
2-Backstop

Give them a say in brexit and possibly a way around the DUP.
Although Scotland might not be happy.

Calina

Risteard81 wrote: »

I believe No Deal would be the best outcome, and it's about time someone taught the so-called "EU" this lesson. Theresa May's "deal" (it wasn't actually agreed given that it was rejected) is appalling and a no deal hard Brexit frankly was always the best outcome. It is a nonsense to suggest that no-one supports a no deal scenario.

I really do not think you know what you are talking about.

Why do you believe No deal would be best?

Calina

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Oh for goodness sake! How EXACTLY is the leader of the opposition supposed to avert Brexit without first defeating the Government?

And he just did it by 230 votes!

Remainers would apparently prefer him to label Labour the Remain party even if that costs him votes next time and leaves the Tories in power.

I struggle to give Labour credit for last night's defeat. How exactly did he get 118 tories to vote with him?

Risteard81

Calina wrote: »

I really do not think you know what you are talking about.

Why do you believe No deal would be best?

It's what I voted for in the referendum.

Also the so-called "EU" is a despicable organisation which seeks to force its will on every country. Let us not forget the crimes of Nice 2 and Lisbon 2. I support every effort to ensure the destruction of the so-called "EU" and I believe a no deal scenario is the best way forward. When I voted for Brexit I was voting for the hardest Brexit possible. That hasn't changed.

Metroid diorteM

You say “its will” is “on” every country, but I would suggest that “its will” is actually *of* every country.

J Mysterio

Risteard81 wrote: »

I believe No Deal would be the best outcome, and it's about time someone taught the so-called "EU" this lesson. Theresa May's "deal" (it wasn't actually agreed given that it was rejected) is appalling and a no deal hard Brexit frankly was always the best outcome. It is a nonsense to suggest that no-one supports a no deal scenario.

God, posts like this just boggle the mind.

You have no idea what you are talking about. You have no idea the damage a 'No Deal Brexit' would cause.

Popping in here on the day of the No Confidence vote in May to leave that little nugget will not be well received.

If you want to be educated, pay heed to those who have the energy to set you straight here - I don't. If you're not willing to do that, best just take that useless soundbyte and cut your losses now. Same for everyone else of that vein.

I'm struggling to keep up with the absolute madness of Brexit now, its just becoming too taxing after 2.5 years of lies, damn lies, ignorance and incompetence. The UK have set a new bar for ridiculousness in politics and they are just about ready to destroy their country for generations.

micosoft

Risteard81 wrote: »

It's what I voted for in the referendum.

Also the so-called "EU" is a despicable organisation which seeks to force its will on every country. Let us not forget the crimes of Nice 2 and Lisbon 2. I support every effort to ensure the destruction of the so-called "EU" and I believe a no deal scenario is the best way forward. When I voted for Brexit I was voting for the hardest Brexit possible. That hasn't changed.

And what happens when it destroys the United Kingdom instead as appears apparent?

I am bemused that you regard Irelands democratic vote as a crime but I suspect you are one of those who supports final "enabling" act...

A Dub in Glasgo

The 17.00 update on the British Times website is running with the following, I would be very surprised if the EU would agree to this and the comments section is full of 'the EU are running scared' type posts

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-eu-ready-to-delay-withdrawal-until-next-year-j20f9rm3h

photo website hosting

Captain Obvious

Risteard81 wrote: »

I believe No Deal would be the best outcome, and it's about time someone taught the so-called "EU" this lesson. Theresa May's "deal" (it wasn't actually agreed given that it was rejected) is appalling and a no deal hard Brexit frankly was always the best outcome. It is a nonsense to suggest that no-one supports a no deal scenario.

The first line makes this sound like satire. Why do you call it the "so called "EU""?

prawnsambo

Captain Obvious wrote: »

The first line makes this sound like satire. Why do you call it the "so called "EU""?

He never answers this question. But he doesn't recognise the Irish government either, so I really wouldn't bother.

A Dub in Glasgo

Risteard81 wrote: »

It's what I voted for in the referendum.

Also the so-called "EU" is a despicable organisation which seeks to force its will on every country. Let us not forget the crimes of Nice 2 and Lisbon 2. I support every effort to ensure the destruction of the so-called "EU" and I believe a no deal scenario is the best way forward. When I voted for Brexit I was voting for the hardest Brexit possible. That hasn't changed.

Good for you

The use of so-called "EU" marks you out as an immature lad

FrancieBrady

Risteard81 wrote: »

It's what I voted for in the referendum.

No you didn't because it simply wasn't an option on the ballot paper.

You may have voted to leave the EU but there are many ways to do that, as we have seen and the referendum campaign was as confused and befuddled as the UK political class is now.
As we have seen also, there were others who were way ahead of the game in terms of understanding the ramifications of leaving.

judeboy101

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The 17.00 update on the British Times website is running with the following, I would be very surprised if the EU would agree to this and the comments section is full of 'the EU are running scared' type posts

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-eu-ready-to-delay-withdrawal-until-next-year-j20f9rm3h

photo website hosting

Unless its for a referendum or a GE, postponing will just give the impression that the EU are afraid of losing the UK, nothing will change if may keeps her job, her "red lines" and while the DUP hold the leash. This will only give the brexiteers more time to push the "they need us more than we need them".

Bit cynical

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The 17.00 update on the British Times website is running with the following, I would be very surprised if the EU would agree to this and the comments section is full of 'the EU are running scared' type posts

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-eu-ready-to-delay-withdrawal-until-next-year-j20f9rm3h

Ireland is also in favour of extending A50.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Risteard81 wrote: »

It's what I voted for in the referendum.

Also the so-called "EU" is a despicable organisation which seeks to force its will on every country. Let us not forget the crimes of Nice 2 and Lisbon 2. I support every effort to ensure the destruction of the so-called "EU" and I believe a no deal scenario is the best way forward. When I voted for Brexit I was voting for the hardest Brexit possible. That hasn't changed.

It is called the EU.
Or do you refer to the UK as the so called UK?
The so called UK has a far greater despicable past than the so called EU.
You want the hardest Brexit possible, that financially will hurt so many people reliant on the state. Sums you up really.

A Dub in Glasgo

Bit cynical wrote: »

Ireland is also in favour of extending A50.

for another 12 months?

artanevilla

Is there any point in extending? Does anyone actually believe a deal can be reached that the British parliament will approve?

branie2

I think they should cancel Brexit

kowtow

While we all wait for the NC vote result does anyone want to address their thoughts to my speculative question which dissapeared up the thread above...

If a softer (e.g. Customs Union) Brexit was agreed, would we still require the backstop? Bear in mind that the UK would hardly enter such an arrangement in perpetuity.. it would be free to leave presumably...

Calina

kowtow wrote: »

While we all wait for the NC vote result does anyone want to address their thoughts to my speculative question which dissapeared up the thread above...

If a softer (e.g. Customs Union) Brexit was agreed, would we still require the backstop? Bear in mind that the UK would hardly enter such an arrangement in perpetuity.. it would be free to leave presumably...

Yes. Most likely. Single market otoh would not. But aint no way the UK understands this

EdgeCase

micosoft wrote: »

And what happens when it destroys the United Kingdom instead as appears apparent?

I am bemused that you regard Irelands democratic vote as a crime but I suspect you are one of those who supports final "enabling" act...

We actually negotiated a protocol to be added to those treaties and voted on that. It was a negotiation with the Irish public and there was absolutely nothing to stop us voting them down twice either.

Protocol text : https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:22013A0302(01)&rid=4

But I mean, it doesn't suit the post-truth agenda to just spout any old nonsense and keep saying it until eventually it becomes accepted. So they just keep spouting the same line over and over and it goes unchallenged most of the time.

Hurrache

Risteard81 wrote: »

It's what I voted for in the referendum.

Also the so-called "EU" is a despicable organisation which seeks to force its will on every country. Let us not forget the crimes of Nice 2 and Lisbon 2. I support every effort to ensure the destruction of the so-called "EU" and I believe a no deal scenario is the best way forward. When I voted for Brexit I was voting for the hardest Brexit possible. That hasn't changed.

With each post you make less and less sense.

judeboy101

kowtow wrote: »

While we all wait for the NC vote result does anyone want to address their thoughts to my speculative question which dissapeared up the thread above...

If a softer (e.g. Customs Union) Brexit was agreed, would we still require the backstop? Bear in mind that the UK would hardly enter such an arrangement in perpetuity.. it would be free to leave presumably...

Turkey is in a customs union with EU but has borders due to not being in SM, can't see how that wouldn't be different for Ireland , UK

kowtow

Calina wrote: »

Yes. Most likely. Single market otoh would not. But aint no way the UK understands this

Out of interest why not the single market?

I think the possible need for a backstop even in an ongoing CU arrangement has been missed entirely by most at Westminster.

There is an impression that if only May accepted the CU (and some Labour votes) all would be doable. In reality she needs to throw away everything in her current deal except the backstop ... and that's quite a tricky proposition.