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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Chips Lovell

I'd say the EU will only allow an extension if there's the prospect of some meaningful development, i.e. reconsideration of red lines or another referendum. If the extension is to just postpone the inevitable while pretending there's some magical alternative to the current situation, I can't see it being granted.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

We will be able to choose whichever chickens we want.
I think you’ll find that currently in the Eu we don’t have any choice but to drink chlorinated water

The poorer in society don't decide what chicken they get, the price dictakes that.

Will the NHS continue to buy EU chickens or the lower price GMO feed US Chickens do you think?

That a argument based on ignornace of the realities facing people.

Do you think people choose to buy the cheapest cars rather than everyone driving a Ferrari?

LeinsterDub

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

It seems to me (please rapidly correct me if I’m way off), that if we the Irish were to agree that we would erect a “light border” in the north, this might serve to reduce the backstop issue and the UK could have a soft brexit instead of a complete crash out resulting in our need to put up a full border anyway.

The English say they don’t want a no deal but they’re heading for that iceberg and it could be too late to turn.

I know Varadkar wouldn’t be up for it but it’s honestly looking like a car crash from my perspective and a lot of our goods do still come through the UK.

On the other hand perhaps the UK is heading for a remain and loss of face, and any further action on the Irish or EU side might steer them into a soft brexit instead of a remain?

I’m sure I’ll be corrected about the realities here but I just wanted to explore some hypotheticals.

Any light border will inevitably be attacked thus requiring it to become a slightly harder border inevitably leading to more attacks. Eventually leading to a hard border

Itssoeasy

What was Arlene foster saying yesterday about there not being a hard border on this island before ? I didn't see it live and I've seen a clip(so possibly not getting the full picture) but she was saying it was to keep out cemtex and terrorism(which it didn't stop btw) I found it all very strange and just goes to show how some sections of both the British political class are just not getting brexit and what it entails.

Professor Moriarty

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What was Arlene foster saying yesterday about there not being a hard border on this island before ? I didn't see it live and I've seen a clip(so possibly not getting the full picture) but she was saying it was to keep out cemtex and terrorism(which it didn't stop btw) I found it all very strange and just goes to show how some sections of both the British political class are just not getting brexit and what it entails.

Here is former British Prime Minister John Major on what a hard border would mean for Ireland:

“A hard border, now or at the end of a long transition period or at any time would be disastrous. Peace isn’t secure, it never is and any new border would be a focus for the wild men on the fringes to reactivate old disputes and hatreds that should be laid to rest forever.”

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

We will be able to choose whichever chickens we want.
I think you’ll find that currently in the Eu we don’t have any choice but to drink chlorinated water

If you think the EU is bad just wait till you try to engage with the US in a trade deal by yourselves. Even under a democratic president/congress you will come out far worse than any situation you have ever had within the EU.

LeinsterDub

The hypocritics of the Tories are on the floor now. Somehow arguing that a government which was absolutely destroyed yesterday and who's leader only 2/3 has support of her own members have full confidence in the government and TM.

EdgeCase

RMAOK wrote: »

Am I right in saying that the extension of the article 50 requires the approval of the other 27 EU members?

I know they can revoke their application without permission from the other 27

And in some cases not just the 27 but there are constitutional requirements to potentially consult regional / state parliaments.

Also there's the slight issue that there's no Belgian government at the moment, so they might not even be able to sign off of a treaty change at all.

Belgian politics can be like Northern Ireland without the guns. The two sides don't agree on most things, yet have to work together. So I wouldn't be expecting smooth Government formation after the elections.

RobMc59

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Here is former British Prime Minister John Major on what a hard border would mean for Ireland:

“A hard border, now or at the end of a long transition period or at any time would be disastrous. Peace isn’t secure, it never is and any new border would be a focus for the wild men on the fringes to reactivate old disputes and hatreds that should be laid to rest forever.”

I think that applies to the UK too,a hard border would be disastrous and put UK/Irish relations back to the 70's.

Leroy42

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The hypocritics of the Tories are on the floor now. Somehow arguing that a government which was absolutely destroyed yesterday and who's leader only 2/3 has support of her own members have full confidence in the government and TM.

It really is quite something. She suffered resignations and mass revolt over her Chequers plan. That was her big idea and it failed miserably.

So then she went off to the EU to get a compromise deal, one that has suffered the largest defeat in the HoC since....well it was humiliating.

And then they, including the likes of JRM, Johnson, Davis, Raab etc, are going to walk through and vote confidence in a person they are deemed to be completely unable to deliver what they want.

On a human level, I fell somewhat sorry for her. She is being kept in a job that nobody thinks she can do, nothing wants her to do. Can you imagine her having to walk into No 10 each day passing the staff knowing they are actually feeling sorry for her, knowing that they they know she is useless and powerless.

Its pitiful really but in its own way perfectly sums up Brexit and the UK.

VinLieger

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Right but unless UK remains, a gradual hard border is better than an instant hard border. The EU might be happier with a soft border soft brexit than hard border hard brexit.

It’d be crap for the north but maybe they should start asking for a border poll cos right now it’s looking bad for them

Whats a light border?

A border poll can only be granted by the UK government and no Tory government is going to grant one. I'd even be surprised if a labour one under corbyn were to do so as it would lead to a complete shattering of the union due to soctlands inevitable 2nd indy ref too.

Leroy42

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Right but unless UK remains, a gradual hard border is better than an instant hard border. The EU might be happier with a soft border soft brexit than hard border hard brexit.

It’d be crap for the north but maybe they should start asking for a border poll cos right now it’s looking bad for them

It is amazing that Ireland can see the damage that UK leaving EU without a deal will do and the UK can even see the damage it will do to Ireland, yet they seem totally unable to admit that No deal will therefore have massive consequences for them.

So someone like JRM comes out with the lines that Leo needs to back Brexit as a No deal will be terrible for Ireland, but when asked if a No Deal is something to worry about for the UK simply says its all Project Fear and there is nothing to worry about.

Leroy42

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Don’t we get a say in when there’s a border poll? The north voted against brexit

No, we have cancelled our territorial claim to NI as part of the GFA and only the UK can trigger a vote.

igCorcaigh

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What was Arlene foster saying yesterday about there not being a hard border on this island before ? I didn't see it live and I've seen a clip(so possibly not getting the full picture) but she was saying it was to keep out cemtex and terrorism(which it didn't stop btw) I found it all very strange and just goes to show how some sections of both the British political class are just not getting brexit and what it entails.

All I've seen is this

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1085142102009245696?s=19

MarkHenderson

A hard Brexit is now looking like the most likely outcome but our government fails totally in it's plan to prepare. We need action now.

Metroid diorteM

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, we have cancelled our territorial claim to NI as part of the GFA and only the UK can trigger a vote.

Ok, thanks

An Ciarraioch

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, we have cancelled our territorial claim to NI as part of the GFA and only the UK can trigger a vote.

Not quite - the GFA says that if there is to be a Border poll, then it has to be held both North and South simultaneously:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification

lawred2

MarkHenderson wrote: »

A hard Brexit is now looking like the most likely outcome but our government fails totally in it's plan to prepare. We need action now.

What would you like to see?

Dyr

MarkHenderson wrote: »

A hard Brexit is now looking like the most likely outcome but our government fails totally in it's plan to prepare. We need action now.

The actions being what?

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Not quite - the GFA says that if there is to be a Border poll, then it has to be held both North and South simultaneously:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/irish-reunification

Yes, but the question was whether we have any say in when it is called is my understanding.

Call me Al

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

Right but unless UK remains, a gradual hard border is better than an instant hard border. The EU might be happier with a soft border soft brexit than hard border hard brexit.

It’d be crap for the north but maybe they should start asking for a border poll cos right now it’s looking bad for them

I think the ROI are working on the expectation that things will deteriorate significantly quicker for the UK in the event of a no deal. The difficulties we will have here 're a border or customs checks will be nothing in comparison with the cross-channel border through which the bulk of their economy is maintained.
This situation will force the British gov't back to Brussels asking for help. I'd imagine the value of the backstop to the ordinary English voter would pale into insignificance under those circumstances.

Leroy42

Guy Verhofstadt has come out and tweeted that any A50 extension would be limited to short of the European Elections (May I believe, not sure of the date).

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1085458645280788482

The other thing to note is the language. "The mess". Clearly the EU is totally fed up with the whole thing. I would read this, and other statements, as very much the EU sending out the signal that they are not going to compromise so that the promised last minute deal of the likes of Davis, is simply not going to happen.

Captain Obvious

MarkHenderson wrote: »

A hard Brexit is now looking like the most likely outcome but our government fails totally in it's plan to prepare. We need action now.

Can you clarify on what issues you think need to be addressed that caused Brexit? You mentioned it earlier and didn't elaborate. One change I think would make a big difference is media standards being implemented.

EdgeCase

One of the things that worries me a lot is that the ability for parliamentary systems' governments to collapse in times like this is a bit like having the correct fuses fitted in your house. It's a safety measure. When things go faulty and overload, they safely melt and cut the power.

In British politics at the moment a sense of crisis and the Fixed Term Parliament act is acting like a bypassed fuse, replaced with screw or wrapped in tinfoil. The power is on, the lights are on but flickering and there's a strong smell of melting plastic and a big risk of the house suddenly burning down.

All these lost vote and the minority government somehow carries on regardless. That's dangerous and they've clearly got an incredible weak mandate to govern or negotiate anything.

Folkstonian

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is really tiresome. When Corbyn says: “Labour believes that a general election would be the best outcome for the country if this deal is rejected tonight.” he is literally repeating Labour policy, which I just stated.

Slanting this as "Corbyn offers no hope to Remainers" is just more anti-Corbyn propaganda.

Only if the No Confidence vote fails does the policy support a referendum, and Corbyn is not going to pivot to that unless and until the vote actually does fail.

Jeremy Corbyn deserves to be called out as the inept, floundering, hopeless leader that he is.

Labour are a right mess and it cannot be overlooked simply because the conservatives are in an equally pitiful position. You cannot get away with dismissing everything that shines a light on this as ‘Anti-Corbyn propaganda’

The Corbynites of Momentum have done a scarily effective job of commandeering the Labour Party. They control the front bench, the NEC, and the membership. But they’ve also made the party wholly unelectable

in its current guise; swamped by Marxists, anti-semites, with JC being a ‘friend’ of Hamas and Hezbollah and other repugnant groups both in the Middle East and closer to home.. could you expect a majority of the electorate to support them?

And it pains me to say as a remainer, I would have to make a decision in a General Election as to what would be more destructive to my country and it’s standing in the world - a Tory-led Brexit or a Corbyn-led labour government. And I think it would be the latter.

A big shout has to go out to the moderates in the Labour Party who have done absolutely nothing since the last vote of no confidence in Jezza to find a more creative solution to the lack of a sensible, centrist voice. A breakaway party would have found so much support across the country but nobody was daring enough to lead the movement.

Leroy42

Call me Al wrote: »

I think the ROI are working on the expectation that things will deteriorate significantly quicker for the UK in the event of a no deal. The difficulties we will have here 're a border or customs checks will be nothing in comparison with the cross-channel border through which the bulk of their economy is maintained.
This situation will force the British gov't back to Brussels asking for help. I'd imagine the value of the backstop to the ordinary English voter would pale into insignificance under those circumstances.

Yes I agree. The loss of the landbridge though the UK is going to cause us massive problems, but we can at least reroute some trade direct to the EU. It is still not the current system, but better than nothing.

The UK, on the other hand, have no such get out. They will have no deals, no relationships, no regulations, nothing.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

I think you’ll find that currently in the Eu we don’t have any choice but to drink chlorinated water

I think you'll find that you do have a choice, even under EU rules. Have you got proof to the contrary? Where you don't have a choice is eating chickens that have been raised and slaughtered in such poor conditions that they have to be sterilised with chlorine before being shipped out to customers. But if you want to live in a third world country, where even the lettuce is sold covered in sh1te, the US is just a few thousand km over there to the west.

Amprodude

nc6000 wrote: »

Great, how are we going to pay for that?

A hard border is going to cost more.

LeinsterDub

Leroy42 wrote: »

Guy Verhofstadt has come out and tweeted that any A50 extension would be limited to short of the European Elections (May I believe, not sure of the date).

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1085458645280788482

The other thing to note is the language. "The mess". Clearly the EU is totally fed up with the whole thing. I would read this, and other statements, as very much the EU sending out the signal that they are not going to compromise so that the promised last minute deal of the likes of Davis, is simply not going to happen.

The elections really put a spanner in the works . I mean if they give an extension till 23 May 2019 , do they field candidates? If they don't whats to stop me putting my name forward as a candidate.

If they get a second extension and no election was held then what ? What happens to all the seats that are meant to be redistributed ? I heard we may get the extra seats but the candidate that gets elected last might not become an MEP until the UK leaves.

I'm sure there are more .

EdgeCase

Amprodude wrote: »

A hard border is going to cost more.

Knowing the Tories, you'll be paying a crossing fee to Happy Borders PLC, a division of some multinational they're fond of.

Probably some lovely company that also runs US prisons.