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Charts ( up to T120 ) Winter / Spring / Summer 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

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This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

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Meteorite58

High Barometer readings to start off the New Year and HP set to continue over the coming days.

Meteorite58

Monday a LP passing well off the NW /N of Ireland will see a front crossing the country in the Morning/ afternoon and later introducing colder air for a time into Tues going by present ECM 0Z. Breezy and windy / gusty for a time on W, NW and N coasts. Showers following later. As the LP travels more in E /SE direction it should pull down cold airs Tues. Just bordering 120 hrs so some uncertainty with this but the signs seem to be there for an increased chance of some cold weather for the start of next week.

Meteorite58

Bit of a shake up from the prolonged stagnant Hp .WRF showing the Low Monday as it ploughs into the colder air mass over Europe bringing snow to Scotland and mainland Europe and introducing , from a long fetch , colder Northerly Polar air over us. The last few runs have been showing the Low produce possible stronger winds, more so on the American models with strong NW / N winds running down the Irish sea Mon / Tues.

Meteorite58

Strong Jet from the NW early next week also, need to keep an eye on how the Low develops over the coming days.

The models show the Low on Mon fill from 986 hPa to 990hPa off Scotland and then deepen again to 988 hPa on Tues as it moves into Europe bringing some blizzard like conditions there would imagine.

Meteorite58

Winds decreased a bit for Monday as the Low tracks a bit further to the N . Bit windy in the North Channel and the Irish sea for a time.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z back on board showing some quite cold conditions from Mon . Cooler week coming up. After the front goes through on Monday not much rain showing up until Weds and again amounts going by today's runs look small then.

Meteorite58

Can't keep up with the ECM at this stage, not nearly as cold as was showing in earlier runs . Hp very stubborn with the Jet going around it bringing the coldest air grazing the UK and into Europe .

sdanseo

Just in range, ICON picking up a 975mb storm crossing us on Wednesday. Worth a watch.
-4 uppers with it, would likely be snowy on high ground.

Meteorite58

Just in range, ICON picking up a 975mb storm crossing us on Wednesday. Worth a watch.
-4 uppers with it, would likely be snowy on high ground.

Not as deep with the other models but deeper on the ECM than previous runs. The ECM shows it filling as it moves down over Ireland. That will shake out the cobwebs, considerable windchill. Can feel the cold on the back of my nose as I take a breath in from looking at these charts

Meteorite58

Windy over the weekend and blustery on the coasts, will feel it after all the calm weather we have been having. Cloudy for the most part with rain moving down the country on Sunday , rainfall amounts not looking too much at this stage.

Meteorite58

The UKMO showing the 528 dam line over the Northern half of Ireland next Weds with a LP between Scotland and Norway and its occluded fronts moving down over Ireland . Probably heaviest rain in Northern counties in a fresh wind. Could have wintry showers on high ground.

Meteorite58

There you go, ECM 12Z more in line with the UKMO, looking more wintry now in Northern counties next Weds going by the present charts.

Villain

EVMWF +120 and +144 are a pure tease with real cold just missing us and hitting the UK!

gabeeg

Villain wrote: »

EVMWF +120 and +144 are a pure tease with real cold just missing us and hitting the UK!

Aye, but a cold NW to follow. Could be good for some

[IMG][/img]

Meteorite58

The change to a colder air mass after the front begins to clear early Wed introducing a more unstable airmass with the passage of upper troughs aiding convection with the possibility of wintry showers on elevated ground and hail and thunder more so in Atlantic Coastal counties. Getting much colder as the day goes on.

SleetAndSnow

Pub Run GFS keeping the low as not sliding under currently, only model to do so atm so out on its own and has been for quite a few runs. Will be interesting now to see if it backs down, which hopefully is the case or will the Euro's follow it? (which sometimes happens but usually the other way around if I read everything correctly!).. (Again im still only learning model watching so can't be sure if what I am saying is correct

).. Of course the main stuff isn't until later

Meteorite58

Colder air arriving behind the cold front, heavy showers with hail and sporadic thunder tomorrow , wintry on higher ground possible.

Meteorite58

Rainbelts advancing into the cold air mass early Fri morning and looks like producing some snow if somewhat wet and sleety perhaps . Looks like getting up to around 6c in general.Will get a better picture closer to the time.

Looking windy on coast and quite breezy overland giving a substantial windchill.

Meteorite58

ECM showing some snowfall for Fri, will be interesting to see if any sticks, probably some on hills / mountaians for a time.

sdanseo

18Z HIRLAM (short range) calling for some light snow showers/flurries in places on Thursday morning.

It's even better than GFS for the same time range in terms of reaching all levels. Just very little precip around.

Will be very interesting to see what it throws up for Friday this time tomorrow. Only 48hr range on this model.

Meteorite58

Euro 4 ,AROME and ICON showing it to be gusty tomorrow and possibly squally at times especially in the SW and W. Could be some big downdrafts out of those big clouds.

sdanseo

HIRLAM still going for a possibility of very light flurries later tonight into tomorrow. Now followed by more significant "snow" for the west and midlands on Thursday night, but followed immediately by sleet and rain, under -6 and warming uppers. Hard to see anything sticking with both Temp and DP likely to be above zero.

A mess, basically.

Probably safe to say that mountains over 400m or so will look pretty good by Friday though.

hirlamuk-1-32-0.png?16-22

sdanseo

All Irish airports except Cork and Waterford are forecasting various combinations or probabilities of sleet overnight.
High ground will see snow almost certainly, northwest of a line roughly from Limerick to Dublin to Derry.

EIDW (Dublin) 171700Z 1718/1818 22004KT 9999 FEW020 BECMG 1721/1723 17007KT BECMG 1804/1806 16017G29KT -RA BKN012 PROB30 TEMPO 1804/1806 -RASN TEMPO 1806/1810 -RA BKN010 BECMG 1808/1810 15022G36KT BECMG 1811/1813 16006KT BKN020

EIME (Casement) 172000Z 1721/1806 18006KT 9999 SCT018 BKN040 TEMPO 1802/1806 5000 -RASN BKN010

EINN (Shannon) 171700Z 1718/1818 15010KT 9999 FEW030 BECMG 1722/1724 14017G29KT -RA BKN010 TEMPO 1722/1724 -RASN TEMPO 1800/1810 4000 RADZ BKN008 BECMG 1805/1807 16008KT

EIKY (Kerry) 171700Z 1718/1721 15007KT 9999 BKN030 TEMPO 1720/1721 -RASN BKN010

EISG (Sligo) 172000Z 1721/1806 14005KT 9999 BKN030 BECMG 1723/1801 14015G30KT BECMG 1801/1803 5000 -RA BKN010 TEMPO 1802/1805 -RASN

EIKN (Knock) 171700Z 1718/1818 18007KT 9999 BKN030 BECMG 1722/1724 14016G27KT BECMG 1723/1802 3000 -RASN BKN008 TEMPO 1802/1807 1200 RASN BKN002 BECMG 1806/1808 15010KT BECMG 1810/1812 9999 BKN015

Decoded at: https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EIWF

Meteorite58

The WRF quite representative of the other models giving the first true taste of winter overnight and into the morning this year. Wouldn't be surprised to see reports of some lieing snow on hilly locations in the W and NW early tomorrow. Windy as the front crosses the country in the early hours. Plenty of mountains covered in snow tomorrow morning I would reckon. Good chance to see the accuracy of the model predictions.

SleetAndSnow

Ohh a post for under T120

Icon is starting to show a difference towards colder on the 12z run with the high not as far east at 114h, which really means nothing but interesting. Still no confirmation on anything though because the models are all over the place.

12z:
3EC464BA-BA18-4C4F-83A7-83B458C4277F.png.d37332281547fa99cfd8fef6a56f556c.png

3EC464BA-BA18-4C4F-83A7-83B458C4277F.png.d37332281547fa99cfd8fef6a56f556c.png

6z:

A080629D-812A-4425-864C-D0217B604E3B.png.e4adebb0514c0003cbf47ae61d01e659.png

Billcarson

The next hunt for cold coming into range. A northerly for next weekend. Ecm and gfs also have one but not till Sunday. Perhaps the models will firm up on this during the week.

Meteorite58

Area of LP set to track over Ireland this weekend and later to merge with another area of LP . Set to get very windy through Sat and quite wet under the passage of a cold front . To go from relatively mild temps early Sat to very cold by night as winds switch to a NW'ly direction dragging down Polar airs over the country in a blustery airflow feeding in wintry showers with hail and thunder possible by evening.

Winds will need to be monitored with a deepening low like this . Rough looking day Saturday.

Meteorite58

WRF 18Z just rolling out

pauldry

This low has come from nowhere yes?

A jet amplified one

sdanseo

ICON calling for significant snow on Monday (+93hrs only) with just -5 uppers

Calling GL - calling GL - your thoughts? ICON usually pessimistic for wintry stuff.