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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Tell me how

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

First response from Irish government:

Direct and truthful once again from Irish position thankfully.

Simon has done very well throughout this process.

Akrasia

murphaph wrote: »

The only thing parliament will vote for is a softer Brexit with permanent customs Union and if necessary single market membership (BRINO), which the EU would happily entertain. That or revocation of A50 at the last minute. I honestly see either of those two options.

I don't think no deal will be allowed to happen, even though it's the default if it isn't stopped. I think parliament will be able to stop it.

Its almost impossible for the UK parliament to bring in the required legislation to leave on 29th of march even if Mays deal had been approved today, it would have been extremely difficult. The longer they wait, the more impossible it becomes. There is absolutely zero chance of getting any kind of WA approved by the deadline so the UK only have 4 options.
1. Withdraw A50 unilaterallly
2. Request A50 extension to allow for 2nd Referendum
3. Request A50 extension for more time to renegotiate a new deal and\or hold a GE
4. Crash out of the EU

The ball is in the EUs court here given that 2 of those options require approval by the EU 27, one of them is unilaterally cancelling brexit, and the last is politically unthinkable (apart from the by the fruitcakes)

UrbanFret

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Why is Tommy Gorman allowed to editoralise so much on RTE News when he is reporting.

I personally don't agree with the DUP position but I also dont like tje way Gorman likes to stick the boot in when just reporting.

I've always found him to be far too SF leaning in his reporting on other issues related to NI also.

Because in no way shape or form does Foster and the rest of her degenerates have any interest in what's best for ireland.

doc_17

May is toast. It won’t be long now before Tories come out calling for her to resign.

Headshot

Deleted User wrote: »

Germany sells a lot to UK, way more than it buys from them. Actually this is the case for Germany's relationship with most EU countries. They will want keep selling those Beemers and Mercs into UK even if it means some further concessions.

My worry is that Germany will do some negotiations behind closed doors, for a modified agreement that is acceptable to all parties except for one small EU state. They will then lean on Ireland to back down on the only major sticking point.

I heard a German economist on tv recently said that Germany's reliant on UK is only 1% GDP for Germany so it's not really a big deal for them and they'll get that 1% back else where

zapitastas

If only Sinn Fein had pledged allegiance to the crown and taken their place in the HoC they could have made all the difference today

Akrasia

RoryMac wrote: »

The 2nd Referendum will be the next option but that would be a lot easier to sell with a Labour leader that backs it

The labour party membership strongly favour a 2nd vote. Even a luke warm Corbyn won't be able to dampen down the enthusiasm of a remsin csmpaign in a 2nd referendum.

The first campaign was characterised by a disengaged remain side who took it for granted that they'd win. This time its very different

[Deleted User]

UrbanFret wrote: »

Because in no way shape of form does Foster and the rest of her degenerates have any interest in what's best for ireland.

But it's not the job of a reporter to editoralise on the above even though it may be true.

As an interviewer ask the hard questions and challenge the interviewe, on a panel show give opinions but as a reporter just report, don't take sides.

LeinsterDub

doc_17 wrote: »

May is toast. It won’t be long now before Tories come out calling for her to resign.

If they want her gone, actually really want her gone. They just have to vote for the vote of no confidence tomorrow. Otherwise they are goosed.

BlitzKrieg

Tell me how wrote: »

How do you think it should have been handled?

Note I consider the entire last 2 years a waste of time

If you are going for them then the obvious choices was to reverse the whole article 50, davis negotiation team debacle. Instead of activating article 50 and then rushing to get a team together to negotiate it, I'd have put a team together to asses what the UK needs, wants and can give up, identify key areas of concern

So when I'd announce activating article 50 I can go straight to the EU with a proposal instead of the whole red line nonsense.

But if you mean just the last few weeks.

Own up to it being a ****show, I think the public would overwhelmingly take that as refreshing on either side.

Corbyn cant touch you cause the DUP are too scared of him and your own party have shot their load already trying to out you.

Own up to the public say Brexit has been a ****show but is still possible, but the government needs time to develop a proper assesment of things, so you will ask to EU to withdraw article 50 and establish a citizens initiative/cross party delegation to assess what the UK needs, wants and doesnt want out of it's future relationship with the EU. That will be presented at a specific date in the future (if I was confident I'd say 3 years just in time for the next general election)

To calm the brexiteers you'll say this is not taking hard brexit of the table, but they need to be realistic and accept that the british economy has shifted to working inside the EU over the last 40 years and if it is agreed that the UK wants a hard brexit they'd need time readjusting their economic priorities to support british industry in such a change.

Brexit will happen, but it needs time and until then it's business as usual.

Privately I'd assure the EU that in terms of commitment both politically and financially they can sign the UK up until the end of the next european election season. That removes the issue of everything being up in the air on the EU side of things which will calm their side down.

Nobody will be thrilled but it stops everyday being a constant sinkhole of panic that the UK is currently suffering.

[Deleted User]

zapitastas wrote: »

If only Sinn Fein had pledged allegiance to the crown and taken their place in the HoC they could have made all the difference today

Ah how exactly?

There are only a hand full of them.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://twitter.com/fotoole/status/1085269702061015040

RoryMac

Akrasia wrote: »

The labour party membership strongly favour a 2nd vote. Even a luke warm Corbyn won't be able to dampen down the enthusiasm of a remsin csmpaign in a 2nd referendum.

The first campaign was characterised by a disengaged remain side who took it for granted that they'd win. This time its very different

I hope you're right, I see Corbyn fudging it every time he steps in front of a camera and can see him confusing the issues when pressed in any interview or debate

prawnsambo

Headshot wrote: »

I heard a German economist on tv recently said that Germany's reliant on UK is only 1% GDP for Germany so it's not really a big deal for them and they'll get that 1% back else where

Yep. Japan for starters. And the people in the UK who buy Mercs and Beemers will be insulated from the worst of brexit, so will happily keep buying them.

RoryMac

doc_17 wrote: »

May is toast. It won’t be long now before Tories come out calling for her to resign.

Not before March 29th she's not

Tell me how

doc_17 wrote: »

May is toast. It won’t be long now before Tories come out calling for her to resign.

She won a motion of confidence before Christmas, she cannot be challenged in this way from within for 11 more months. The tories know the mess that is there and that there is no strong alternative candidates from the following list.

Javid, Hunt, Rudd, Gove, Johnson, Davis, Raab.

At least 3 of those are hated by 75% of the house.

If Labour look like forcing a GE it means the conservatives goose is probably cooked and if so, I think they would want Theresa to take the hit of a defeat in it before going.

branie2

Donald Tusk is suggesting that the UK cancel Brexit following tonight's defeat.

Akrasia

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Note I consider the entire last 2 years a waste of time

If you are going for them then the obvious choices was to reverse the whole article 50, davis negotiation team debacle. Instead of activating article 50 and then rushing to get a team together to negotiate it, I'd have put a team together to asses what the UK needs, wants and can give up, identify key areas of concern

So when I'd announce activating article 50 I can go straight to the EU with a proposal instead of the whole red line nonsense.

But if you mean just the last few weeks.

Own up to it being a ****show, I think the public would overwhelmingly take that as refreshing on either side.

Corbyn cant touch you cause the DUP are too scared of him and your own party have shot their load already trying to out you.

Own up to the public say Brexit has been a ****show but is still possible, but the government needs time to develop a proper assesment of things, so you will ask to EU to withdraw article 50 and establish a citizens initiative/cross party delegation to assess what the UK needs, wants and doesnt want out of it's future relationship with the EU. That will be presented at a specific date in the future (if I was confident I'd say 3 years just in time for the next general election)

To calm the brexiteers you'll say this is not taking hard brexit of the table, but they need to be realistic and accept that the british economy has shifted to working inside the EU over the last 40 years and if it is agreed that the UK wants a hard brexit they'd need time readjusting their economic priorities to support british industry in such a change.

Brexit will happen, but it needs time and until then it's business as usual.

Privately I'd assure the EU that in terms of commitment both politically and financially they can sign the UK up until the end of the next european election season. That removes the issue of everything being up in the air on the EU side of things which will calm their side down.

Nobody will be thrilled but it stops everyday being a constant sinkhole of panic that the UK is currently suffering.

The EU do not want to have this hanging over them for 3 more years. If the UK withdraw A50 it has to be because they have commited to stay. Not just to postpone the date of departure.

They could spend that entire time blocking and undermining EU institutions from within

Water John

Corbyn may be trying a fudge by saying he's going to have regular Votes of confidence. hope not.

doc_17

They can vote against her tomorrow!!!!

doc_17

Anyway, the pressure on her is too much. Calamitous failure. She’s finished.

MrMusician18

UrbanFret wrote: »

Because in no way shape or form does Foster and the rest of her degenerates have any interest in what's best for ireland.

While I happen to agree with Tommy, it's not a national broadcasters place to be so partisan.

Set out the facts and let us decide.

robinph

Deleted User wrote: »

Germany sells a lot to UK, way more than it buys from them. Actually this is the case for Germany's relationship with most EU countries. They will want keep selling those Beemers and Mercs into UK even if it means some further concessions.

My worry is that Germany will do some negotiations behind closed doors, for a modified agreement that is acceptable to all parties except for one small EU state. They will then lean on Ireland to back down on the only major sticking point.

The whole idea that because Germany sell more to than it buys from the UK means that they are going to cave in on a deal is daft.

Tesco sell me more stuff than they buy from me, that doesn't mean that I'm in a particularly great negotiation position with them though.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

doc_17 wrote: »

Anyway, the pressure on her is too much. Calamitous failure. She’s finished.

Nope. She will still be PM until March 29th at least

Tell me how

doc_17 wrote: »

They can vote against her tomorrow!!!!

doc_17 wrote: »

Anyway, the pressure on her is too much. Calamitous failure. She’s finished.

Boris Johnson, JRM and the DUP have already said that they will be voting in support of her tomorrow.

Corbyn's position will be more at risk than May's this time tomorrow evening.

tuxy

doc_17 wrote: »

Anyway, the pressure on her is too much. Calamitous failure. She’s finished.

Far from it. Motion of no confidence in the government will fail and her party has no one to replace her.

PhoenixParker

Tell me how wrote: »

Boris Johnson, JRM and the DUP have already said that they will be voting in support of her tomorrow.

Corbyn's position should be as much at risk as May's this time tomorrow evening.

The remainers might vote with labour.

tuxy

PhoenixParker wrote: »

The remainers might vote with labour.

They might if the leader of labour was also a remainder however he has fairly strong eurosceptic views.

Akrasia

RoryMac wrote: »

I hope you're right, I see Corbyn fudging it every time he steps in front of a camera and can see him confusing the issues when pressed in any interview or debate

I hope I'm right too. Ive seen lots of labour MPs outlining the roadmap and emphasising the 2nd referendum option if the GE option fails. I think Corbyn has been given leeway to try the No confidence option but told that he needs to carry out his mandate from the membership at the labour party conference

Dyr

MrMusician18 wrote: »

While I happen to agree with Tommy, it's not a national broadcasters place to be so partisan.

Set out the facts and let us decide.

The good thing and bad thing about tommy o'gorman is that he's been around a long time and knows all the players in the various northern parties well so he tends to sound off a lot.