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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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[Deleted User]

robinph wrote: »

The whole idea that because Germany sell more to than it buys from the UK means that they are going to cave in on a deal is daft.

Tesco sell me more stuff than they buy from me, that doesn't mean that I'm in a particularly great negotiation position with them though.

Tesco doesn't care about your purchase, because they're insignificant in terms of their overall financial performance.

devnull

JRM has had his say.

Believes that as people voted for A50 which said the UK would leave in two years and the withdrawal act that gave the date as the end of March therefore unless they have very short memories or didn't read what they were voting for.

Therefore they did vote for whether a deal was made or not to leave on that date, therefore they are voting for No Deal now if a deal cannot be made so it is incorrect to suggest there is not a mandate for No Deal.

Seems to be suggesting that if this does not happen it is legally questionable and could be considered tyranny and they are going to use whatever power they have to force no deal and will not permit any extension.

No surprises that he's looking after his own interests as usual.

Itssoeasy

tuxy wrote: »

Far from it. Motion of no confidence in the government will fail and her party has no one to replace her.

Will it fail ? The DUP said they'd vote with the government but is a certainty that all the tories will do so ? The majority isn't that big.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

Germany 2017 total exports $1,450B
to UK $95B
so 6.5% of total exports are to UK
2017 GDP was $3677B so dependence there would be ~2.5% rather than 1%?

UK exported only $45B to Germany, but they were still their biggest market after US ($59B)

Yes, but that's not GDP.

Hermy

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

...Hard as it may be to have a border with the north...put a EU police force on it and see how things go. If it doesnt go well...offer the people of NI a chance to go independent...

Enforce the border with a foreign police force and when it all kicks off resolve matters by inviting them to leave the UK?

How can that end other than badly?

Itssoeasy

MrMusician18 wrote: »

While I happen to agree with Tommy, it's not a national broadcasters place to be so partisan.

Set out the facts and let us decide.

I agree it shouldn't be but honestly I think at this stage things need to be said, because the Republic of Ireland need to call it like it is. The DUP in the north have this fetish about the precious Union when we know the rest of Britian would love to get rid of it. They say they don't won't/wont be a hard border but the DUP don't care about the south and they'd probably love to have a hard border back. I realise that sounds stupid but well it's the DUP so logical thinking isn't their strong point.

Berserker

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Why is Tommy Gorman allowed to editoralise so much on RTE News when he is reporting.

I personally don't agree with the DUP position but I also dont like tje way Gorman likes to stick the boot in when just reporting.

I've always found him to be far too SF leaning in his reporting on other issues related to NI also.

Can't conduct a proper interview like pretty much every RTE presenter. Pat Kenny was the only decent interviewer they had for years. Dobbo interviewed Boris at that conference last week and it was more of the same. Never let the man answer a question.

Tell me how wrote: »

Boris Johnson, JRM and the DUP have already said that they will be voting in support of her tomorrow.

Corbyn's position will be more at risk than May's this time tomorrow evening.

Given the circus that is the Conservative party at the moment, his inability to capitalise speaks volume about his calibre. I think he'll go before she does. If he loses this vote, he's in big trouble.

[Deleted User]

Headshot wrote: »

I heard a German economist on tv recently said that Germany's reliant on UK is only 1% GDP for Germany so it's not really a big deal for them and they'll get that 1% back else where

Germany 2017 total exports $1,450B
to UK $95B
so 6.5% of total exports are to UK
2017 GDP was $3677B so dependence there would be ~2.5% rather than 1%?

UK exported only $45B to Germany, but they were still their biggest market after US ($59B)

Dyr

MrMusician18 wrote: »

While I happen to agree with Tommy, it's not a national broadcasters place to be so partisan.

Set out the facts and let us decide.

The good thing and bad thing about tommy o'gorman is that he's been around a long time and knows all the players in the various northern parties well so he tends to sound off a lot.

Akrasia

RoryMac wrote: »

I hope you're right, I see Corbyn fudging it every time he steps in front of a camera and can see him confusing the issues when pressed in any interview or debate

I hope I'm right too. Ive seen lots of labour MPs outlining the roadmap and emphasising the 2nd referendum option if the GE option fails. I think Corbyn has been given leeway to try the No confidence option but told that he needs to carry out his mandate from the membership at the labour party conference

tuxy

PhoenixParker wrote: »

The remainers might vote with labour.

They might if the leader of labour was also a remainder however he has fairly strong eurosceptic views.

PhoenixParker

Tell me how wrote: »

Boris Johnson, JRM and the DUP have already said that they will be voting in support of her tomorrow.

Corbyn's position should be as much at risk as May's this time tomorrow evening.

The remainers might vote with labour.

tuxy

doc_17 wrote: »

Anyway, the pressure on her is too much. Calamitous failure. She’s finished.

Far from it. Motion of no confidence in the government will fail and her party has no one to replace her.

Tell me how

doc_17 wrote: »

They can vote against her tomorrow!!!!

doc_17 wrote: »

Anyway, the pressure on her is too much. Calamitous failure. She’s finished.

Boris Johnson, JRM and the DUP have already said that they will be voting in support of her tomorrow.

Corbyn's position will be more at risk than May's this time tomorrow evening.

ARNOLD J RIMMER

doc_17 wrote: »

Anyway, the pressure on her is too much. Calamitous failure. She’s finished.

Nope. She will still be PM until March 29th at least

robinph

Deleted User wrote: »

Germany sells a lot to UK, way more than it buys from them. Actually this is the case for Germany's relationship with most EU countries. They will want keep selling those Beemers and Mercs into UK even if it means some further concessions.

My worry is that Germany will do some negotiations behind closed doors, for a modified agreement that is acceptable to all parties except for one small EU state. They will then lean on Ireland to back down on the only major sticking point.

The whole idea that because Germany sell more to than it buys from the UK means that they are going to cave in on a deal is daft.

Tesco sell me more stuff than they buy from me, that doesn't mean that I'm in a particularly great negotiation position with them though.

MrMusician18

UrbanFret wrote: »

Because in no way shape or form does Foster and the rest of her degenerates have any interest in what's best for ireland.

While I happen to agree with Tommy, it's not a national broadcasters place to be so partisan.

Set out the facts and let us decide.

doc_17

Anyway, the pressure on her is too much. Calamitous failure. She’s finished.

doc_17

They can vote against her tomorrow!!!!

Water John

Corbyn may be trying a fudge by saying he's going to have regular Votes of confidence. hope not.

Akrasia

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Note I consider the entire last 2 years a waste of time

If you are going for them then the obvious choices was to reverse the whole article 50, davis negotiation team debacle. Instead of activating article 50 and then rushing to get a team together to negotiate it, I'd have put a team together to asses what the UK needs, wants and can give up, identify key areas of concern

So when I'd announce activating article 50 I can go straight to the EU with a proposal instead of the whole red line nonsense.

But if you mean just the last few weeks.

Own up to it being a ****show, I think the public would overwhelmingly take that as refreshing on either side.

Corbyn cant touch you cause the DUP are too scared of him and your own party have shot their load already trying to out you.

Own up to the public say Brexit has been a ****show but is still possible, but the government needs time to develop a proper assesment of things, so you will ask to EU to withdraw article 50 and establish a citizens initiative/cross party delegation to assess what the UK needs, wants and doesnt want out of it's future relationship with the EU. That will be presented at a specific date in the future (if I was confident I'd say 3 years just in time for the next general election)

To calm the brexiteers you'll say this is not taking hard brexit of the table, but they need to be realistic and accept that the british economy has shifted to working inside the EU over the last 40 years and if it is agreed that the UK wants a hard brexit they'd need time readjusting their economic priorities to support british industry in such a change.

Brexit will happen, but it needs time and until then it's business as usual.

Privately I'd assure the EU that in terms of commitment both politically and financially they can sign the UK up until the end of the next european election season. That removes the issue of everything being up in the air on the EU side of things which will calm their side down.

Nobody will be thrilled but it stops everyday being a constant sinkhole of panic that the UK is currently suffering.

The EU do not want to have this hanging over them for 3 more years. If the UK withdraw A50 it has to be because they have commited to stay. Not just to postpone the date of departure.

They could spend that entire time blocking and undermining EU institutions from within

branie2

Donald Tusk is suggesting that the UK cancel Brexit following tonight's defeat.

Tell me how

doc_17 wrote: »

May is toast. It won’t be long now before Tories come out calling for her to resign.

She won a motion of confidence before Christmas, she cannot be challenged in this way from within for 11 more months. The tories know the mess that is there and that there is no strong alternative candidates from the following list.

Javid, Hunt, Rudd, Gove, Johnson, Davis, Raab.

At least 3 of those are hated by 75% of the house.

If Labour look like forcing a GE it means the conservatives goose is probably cooked and if so, I think they would want Theresa to take the hit of a defeat in it before going.

RoryMac

doc_17 wrote: »

May is toast. It won’t be long now before Tories come out calling for her to resign.

Not before March 29th she's not

prawnsambo

Headshot wrote: »

I heard a German economist on tv recently said that Germany's reliant on UK is only 1% GDP for Germany so it's not really a big deal for them and they'll get that 1% back else where

Yep. Japan for starters. And the people in the UK who buy Mercs and Beemers will be insulated from the worst of brexit, so will happily keep buying them.

RoryMac

Akrasia wrote: »

The labour party membership strongly favour a 2nd vote. Even a luke warm Corbyn won't be able to dampen down the enthusiasm of a remsin csmpaign in a 2nd referendum.

The first campaign was characterised by a disengaged remain side who took it for granted that they'd win. This time its very different

I hope you're right, I see Corbyn fudging it every time he steps in front of a camera and can see him confusing the issues when pressed in any interview or debate

A Dub in Glasgo

https://twitter.com/fotoole/status/1085269702061015040

[Deleted User]

zapitastas wrote: »

If only Sinn Fein had pledged allegiance to the crown and taken their place in the HoC they could have made all the difference today

Ah how exactly?

There are only a hand full of them.

BlitzKrieg

Tell me how wrote: »

How do you think it should have been handled?

Note I consider the entire last 2 years a waste of time

If you are going for them then the obvious choices was to reverse the whole article 50, davis negotiation team debacle. Instead of activating article 50 and then rushing to get a team together to negotiate it, I'd have put a team together to asses what the UK needs, wants and can give up, identify key areas of concern

So when I'd announce activating article 50 I can go straight to the EU with a proposal instead of the whole red line nonsense.

But if you mean just the last few weeks.

Own up to it being a ****show, I think the public would overwhelmingly take that as refreshing on either side.

Corbyn cant touch you cause the DUP are too scared of him and your own party have shot their load already trying to out you.

Own up to the public say Brexit has been a ****show but is still possible, but the government needs time to develop a proper assesment of things, so you will ask to EU to withdraw article 50 and establish a citizens initiative/cross party delegation to assess what the UK needs, wants and doesnt want out of it's future relationship with the EU. That will be presented at a specific date in the future (if I was confident I'd say 3 years just in time for the next general election)

To calm the brexiteers you'll say this is not taking hard brexit of the table, but they need to be realistic and accept that the british economy has shifted to working inside the EU over the last 40 years and if it is agreed that the UK wants a hard brexit they'd need time readjusting their economic priorities to support british industry in such a change.

Brexit will happen, but it needs time and until then it's business as usual.

Privately I'd assure the EU that in terms of commitment both politically and financially they can sign the UK up until the end of the next european election season. That removes the issue of everything being up in the air on the EU side of things which will calm their side down.

Nobody will be thrilled but it stops everyday being a constant sinkhole of panic that the UK is currently suffering.

LeinsterDub

doc_17 wrote: »

May is toast. It won’t be long now before Tories come out calling for her to resign.

If they want her gone, actually really want her gone. They just have to vote for the vote of no confidence tomorrow. Otherwise they are goosed.