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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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suicide_circus

this is all planned.

May is a remainer. She puts a plan to parliament that is guaranteed to fail

tuxy

suicide_circus wrote: »

this is all planned.

May is a remainer. She puts a plan to parliament that is guaranteed to fail

I take it the majority of Tories are in on it since she still has their confidence?

Scoondal

May no longer has any right to govern. Her government has been defeated massively on an historic vote. She should honourably bow out of politics. She is a failed politician.

prawnsambo

suicide_circus wrote: »

this is all planned.

May is a remainer. She puts a plan to parliament that is guaranteed to fail

All plans are guaranteed to fail. Parliament and the main parties don't know what they want, they only know what they don't want. And that's whatever deal they get to vote on.

Water John

Brussels is saying tonight t the UK, what do you want? Bring that to the table they are saying and we may extend Art . This cannot be a clearer invitation to come to the table with realistic options.

RoryMac

tuxy wrote: »

Labour have said they are prepared to table multiple votes of no confidence in the government. (there is no limit on of often they can do this)

What's the point when they lose tomorrow? They need to sit down themselves and figure out a plan they can put forward as an option

VonZan

Enzokk wrote: »

That is what the EU wants as well, clarity on what the UK wants.

https://twitter.com/byrnemaria/status/1085276803311255554

The problem is that the UK clearly doesn't know what deal it actually wants. The ERG want a comprehensive trade deal to replace the single market leaving the UK with all the advantages of the single market without any of the rules or restrictions. Corbyn wants to be in the customs Union but again without any of the rules. The EU, under no circumstances, should not pander to British idealism. The EU and Ireland need to diverge trade away from the UK.

The Irish government should also not allow the British government to unilaterally remove NI from the customs union either. No way should we allow British fantasy to dictate trade policy on this island.

bob mcbob

hill16bhoy wrote: »

It's as likely if not more likely it could split Labour. There is massive tension building up inside Labour over Corbyn's stubbornness.

If he doesn't shift position to being in favour of a second referendum once his no confidence vote fails, all hell could break loose in the party.

I think if Labour was going to split, it would have done it already.

Corbyn is only in power because of his support from momentum and they are very pro-EU. I think his hold on leadership is nowhere near as strong as it was

Eric Cartman

10000maniacs wrote: »

The only thing this vote has clarified is that the objections to backstop are a smokescreen to what Brexiteers really want. A clean Brexit.

Basically , the DUP will vote against any backstop at all, I suspect many tories against this deal were in the same category, anything that looks like capitulation to the EU via northern Ireland will be shot down by the same group again and again.

RobMc59

SNIP. Cut out the petty insults.

Scoondal

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The law can be changed by Parliament

EU has a say too ... UK sent Article 50 too soon. They are not ready to leave EU. Why should EU re-open negociations. We have more important work to do for EU. UK got 2 years ... enough time wasting. EU should move on.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

Apologies,I meant Britain needs to deliver it`s self from brexit-the tories getting into bed with the DUP shows how low they will stoop to get their own way and now is the time for the British public to take back control from this pathetic bunch of hooray henrys and bigots before it`s too late.

They are too afraid to leave and too scared to stay. UK is tearing itself apart in front of our eyes, and the passing of this deal would not or will not cure the problems.

BlitzKrieg

God this whole farce (confidence vote included) is the most incredible waste of time. People really should demand the government and mps give up their wages for the sheer waste of time they've put the country through for the last 2 years.

Tell me how

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

God this whole farce (confidence vote included) is the most incredible waste of time. People really should demand the government and mps give up their wages for the sheer waste of time they've put the country through for the last 2 years.

How do you think it should have been handled?

boggerman1

David Davis on lbc now.to say he's delusional is being unfair to delusional.better deal out there cause EU need Britain etc,etc.

Akrasia

RoryMac wrote: »

What's the point when they lose tomorrow? They need to sit down themselves and figure out a plan they can put forward as an option

Labour have already given their roadmap as voted on at the Labour conference

1. Call a motion of no confidence to trigger a general election

If 1 fails, support calls for a 2nd referendum.

The only question os whether Corbyn accepts the result of the no confidence vote. He could pull a Theresa May and try to force it to a revote, but i don't think his party will tolerate that.

Corbyn knew he had one shot to call no confidence. If it fails tomorrow, Labours position should be all out for a 2nd Referendum.

Scoondal

EU has ignored the UK parliamentary vote. They will push through with ratification of the UK withdrawal agreement. They need to do this for the 29 March stated date that UK said they will leave EU.
The agreement has already been agreed by Mrs May and EU.

Irishmale0399

Tell me how wrote: »

How do you think it should have been handled?

Tell them to rev up and ..... off. Hard as it may be to have a border with the north...put a EU police force on it and see how things go. If it doesnt go well...offer the people of NI a chance to go independent. If they leave the Scots will surely try again to break away.

If they now want to stay......
Full contributions, no more Thatcher deals
2 years to introduce the €
and whatever else the EU wish to have.

seamus

Tell me how wrote: »

How do you think it should have been handled?

Cameron should have taken the referendum to the EU to discuss the best way to address the concerns of the UK electorate without doing something stupid.

Instead he cut the boat from its moorings and jumped ship.

boggerman1

Hurrache wrote: »

Wilson actually said the EU should now wake up and smell the coffee. Header.

Sammy must have hit the sauce early today

murphaph

The only thing parliament will vote for is a softer Brexit with permanent customs Union and if necessary single market membership (BRINO), which the EU would happily entertain. That or revocation of A50 at the last minute. I honestly see either of those two options.

I don't think no deal will be allowed to happen, even though it's the default if it isn't stopped. I think parliament will be able to stop it.

A Dub in Glasgo

Scoondal wrote: »

EU has a say too ... UK sent Article 50 too soon. They are not ready to leave EU. Why should EU re-open negociations. We have more important work to do for EU. UK got 2 years ... enough time wasting. EU should move on.

The EU has no say if the UK to decides to revoke article 50

Scoondal

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The law can be changed by Parliament

Tell me how wrote: »

How do you think it should have been handled?

They have wasted 2 years of EU time and expense to massively reject the agreement with EU. EU should sue UK for compensation. EU has more important issues to spend its time on.
UK has always held EU back from what is the right thing to do.
I know what EU should tell UK.

Tell me how

seamus wrote: »

Cameron should have taken the referendum to the EU to discuss the best way to address the concerns of the UK electorate without doing something stupid.

Instead he cut the boat from its moorings and jumped ship.

Yeah, the electorate would have been on board with that! Vote to leave the EU and ask the EU to give them guidance on how to do it. Projecting an image of taking back control it would not have been.

Personally, I think May should have pushed for a cross party negotiating committee to have either produced a better deal (unlikely given issues) but to give a better chance of being accepted. She should have made it very public she was offering this to remove opportunity for Labour to wash their hands of whatever deal was being produced.

She should not have invoked A50 until this team was in place. (Easy be wise after the event of course)

An Ciarraioch

First response from Irish government:

http://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1085286263694024711

[Deleted User]

Why is Tommy Gorman allowed to editoralise so much on RTE News when he is reporting.

I personally don't agree with the DUP position but I also dont like tje way Gorman likes to stick the boot in when just reporting.

I've always found him to be far too SF leaning in his reporting on other issues related to NI also.

prawnsambo

seamus wrote: »

Cameron should have taken the referendum to the EU to discuss the best way to address the concerns of the UK electorate without doing something stupid.

Instead he cut the boat from its moorings and jumped ship.

He should have confronted the eurosceptics in his party instead of pandering to them. Made them come up with a workable plan. We'd still be waiting and he'd still be PM.

RoryMac

Akrasia wrote: »

Labour have already given their roadmap as voted on at the Labour conference

1. Call a motion of no confidence to trigger a general election

If 1 fails, support calls for a 2nd referendum.

The only question os whether Corbyn accepts the result of the no confidence vote. He could pull a Theresa May and try to force it to a revote, but i don't think his party will tolerate that.

Corbyn knew he had one shot to call no confidence. If it fails tomorrow, Labours position should be all out for a 2nd Referendum.

The 2nd Referendum will be the next option but that would be a lot easier to sell with a Labour leader that backs it

[Deleted User]

Germany sells a lot to UK, way more than it buys from them. Actually this is the case for Germany's relationship with most EU countries. They will want keep selling those Beemers and Mercs into UK even if it means some further concessions.

My worry is that Germany will do some negotiations behind closed doors, for a modified agreement that is acceptable to all parties except for one small EU state. They will then lean on Ireland to back down on the only major sticking point.

Water John

Murph you're correct. If the Hoc is, as per Hilary Benn, consulted by a series of indicative votes, a soft Brexit may get the highest acceptance with 2nd Ref, a close 2nd.