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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Firefox11

There are hoping to blackmail Ireland with a no deal in order to drop the backstop.

Hurrache

MarkHenderson wrote: »

Delighted with the result. Hopefully now the UK can get on with the business of leaving the EU as soon as possible.

Eh, how when there's absolutely no agreement to what they want. Unless you want a no deal.

Adamcp898

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Have any analysts churned out the no-confidence numbers yet?

No numbers but can't see them losing it. Don't see any Tories scrambling for the ballot box, and even fewer dieing to be leader

Seth Brundle

Hurrache wrote: »

Deluded Johnson's plan is to tell the EU they're getting rid of the backstop and want a Canada+ deal.

Who in the EU is listening to what he has to say?

Beechwoodspark

Hurrache wrote: »

Deluded Johnson's plan is to tell the EU they're getting rid of the backstop and want a Canada+ deal.

It’s all a game to him. He wants the spotlight.

MarkHenderson

Hurrache wrote: »

Eh, how when there's absolutely no agreement to what they want. Unless you want a no deal.

Hopefully that's what happens.

Hurrache

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Who in the EU is listening to what he has to say?

Unfortunately his audience are those in the UK that believe this sort of thing.

RoryMac

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Have any analysts churned out the no-confidence numbers yet?

No actual numbers just that it is almost certain to fail

Imreoir2

Notorious wrote: »

Price of the pound is bouncing back up after dropping pre-vote. Suggests traders think the UK will remain or at the least the timeline will be stretched.

Markets clearly reading this as meaning that Brexit won't happen and I'm inclined to agree with them. "Britain Leaves the EU" headline is looking like little more than an April Fools joke at this point.

boggerman1

Headshot wrote: »

Im listening to the DUP on BBC.

Isn't it amazing a party wanting to leave the UK while NI voted to remain in Europe. It's disgusting

Sammy threatening the EU.hopefully at the next election up north the protestant farmers dump the dup forever.they reap what they sow.an astonishing margin of defeat for the may bot

Adamcp898

Boris showing why it should've been him negotiating all along. She just didn't have a "high enough heart". Poor soul.

"Keep the good bits, get rid of the backstop, and prepare for a no deal" - Glad you cleared up your position there Boris.

[Deleted User]

boggerman1 wrote: »

Sammy threatening the EU.hopefully at the next election up north the protestant farmers dump the dup forever.they reap what they sow.an astonishing margin of defeat for the may bot

Any normal democracy they would get whacked but they'll just come out with a scare story about SF getting in and they'll fly it.....

Inquitus

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Markets clearly reading this as meaning that Brexit won't happen and I'm inclined to agree with them. "Britain Leaves the EU" headline is looking like little more than an April Fools joke at this point.

I fúcking hope so, I think that's closer tonight, but anything can happen.

Rjd2

RoryMac wrote: »

No actual numbers just that it is almost certain to fail

Ladbrokes are 1/50 for the government to survive it and 12/1 for them not to.

So while politics betting can be tough, not quite sure how she loses it.

The hardcore remainers loath Jez and they know the tory voters would never forgive them for voting against the government.

Spanish Eyes

Awaiting comment from Vlad and Coveney, when they get over the shock of this vote that they knew well would be lost. :rolleyes:

Don't get me wrong, they played a good, solid, calm game. But where will Ireland be now if there is a NO DEAL.

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

Many conservatives would vote for it. Labour also. But it requires a degree of testicular fortitude that very few in the HoC have displayed so far.

It's the only sane response to the current stalemate that doesn't extend this debacle for another year or more. And I sense that the EU are really not interested in extending A50. It's eaten up too much time and energy so far and the logjam isn't in their control anyway.

The challenge must be to get it tabled and a vote on it. What would the procedure be to get that done in the HoC?

alexmalalex wrote: »

My guess is that this agreement is not the "real" agreement. Behind the scenes I would assume that negotiations have been ongoing since Dec 11th. They always knew that the arithmetic was against them.

So, I think what we will see is some shape shifting over the next week, a likely extension of the deadline, and another vote in a month or so on the real deal.

No question, they will win the confidence vote - the last thing anyone wants is a GE least of all Labour and the DUP

There is no agreement in the HoC for any deal though. Labour will not vote for any deal Theresa May brings back as they are in opposition, unless it is the softest of Brexits. But then the DUP will screw her on a crucial vote if she does bring back a deal they are not happy with, which is a hard Brexit. And there is no majority for a hard Brexit either.

Chaos.

Water John

this rejection was inevitable. The surprise is the 230. TM's Deal is dead like Chequers.
the Vote of Confidence comes next. Likely to be defeated. Moving towards a peoples vote.
No Deal Crash Out is a long way away, no need for panic.

Seth Brundle

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

But where will Ireland be now if there is a NO DEAL.

Better prepared than the UK!

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

Unfortunately his audience are those in the UK that believe this sort of thing.

He's now on Sky News talking about surgically remove the backstop from the WA and going back to the EU.

J Mysterio

Johnson on Sky News saying go back to EU and renegotiate in the 60, 70 odd days. Keep the bits we want and get rid of the rest. Forget the backstop. Fantastic Boris, thanks.

Imreoir2

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Awaiting comment from Vlad and Coveney, when they get over the shock of this vote that they knew well would be lost. :rolleyes:

Don't get me wrong, they played a good, solid, calm game. But where will Ireland be now if there is a NO DEAL.

Brexit is on deaths door. There won't be a no-deal, there will be another atempt to get the deal passed and when that fails, it will be time to pull the plug on the whole sordid affair.

Hurrache

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Awaiting comment from Vlad and Coveney, when they get over the shock of this vote that they knew well would be lost. :rolleyes:

Don't get me wrong, they played a good, solid, calm game. But where will Ireland be now if there is a NO DEAL.

Still somewhere between mainland UK and America.

devnull

Boris has come on just now and said that it's easy to fix.

Keep the bits you like and surgically remove the bits you don't and you'll have a deal.

Relatively simple he says, and it can be done with plenty of time to spare.

Still it seems Boris needs to be taught what the words compromise and agreement mean..

fash

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Awaiting comment from Vlad and Coveney, when they get over the shock of this vote that they knew well would be lost. :rolleyes:

Don't get me wrong, they played a good, solid, calm game. But where will Ireland be now if there is a NO DEAL.

Munching on popcorn and waiting for the UK government to collapse and be replaced with one willing to sign up to a backstop ( especially since at that point, remainers will have to face the fact that the UK is out).

Beechwoodspark

devnull wrote: »

Boris has come on just now and said that it's easy to fix.

Keep the bits you like and surgically remove the bits you don't and you'll have a deal.

Now Sammy Wilson is on.

Johnson was plumbing new depths of idiocy in his interview.

Anyway. He’s not a serious figure. The main thing for him is media appearances.

Hurrache

devnull wrote: »

Boris has come on just now and said that it's easy to fix.

Keep the bits you like and surgically remove the bits you don't and you'll have a deal.

Now Sammy Wilson is on.

Had his ass handed to him by a SNP politician on Channel 4 earlier when he tried to bull****.

Enzokk

There is some serious delusions still at the heart of UK politics. Somehow voting against her deal doesn't mean you have no confidence in her but she can continue on with trying to get a deal. This also means going back to the EU to get a new deal on the backstop, but there is no way to get rid of it.

At one moment I feel that we are heading towards a second referendum, then I see nothing else than no-deal. We will be sleepwalking into no-deal because May has gotten into bet with the DUP and because she ignored all voices but her own in the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/595112367358406656

Beechwoodspark

Sky news commentators saying Johnson has taken leave of his senses and he’s gone wildly off message.

That’s the understatement of the year

hill16bhoy

bob mcbob wrote: »

My view now is that TM's compromise position has satisfied no-one, she now needs to go fully one way or the other.

There is no way that a harder Brexit will be supported by anyone except the hardline Brexiteers so the only way she can get anything through the HoC is getting cross party support (i.e. softer Brexit).

This will result in a split in the Tory party.

It's as likely if not more likely it could split Labour. There is massive tension building up inside Labour over Corbyn's stubbornness.

If he doesn't shift position to being in favour of a second referendum once his no confidence vote fails, all hell could break loose in the party.

Water John

They can end up with a Peoples Vote or a Soft Brexit, really don't care which they end up with.
There is major schisms in both parties.