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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Adamcp898

Tell me how wrote: »

I suspect they will withdraw article 50 and look to invoke it again.

Cox said today in the HoC again they legally can't withdraw it without assuring the EU they won't invoke it again.

Now how the EU would police that is another story.......

Enzokk

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So If JC wins the no-confidence motion and gets and wins his general election, how much time will be left for him to renegotiate a new agreement with the EU?
Will the EU give more time without JC having a coherent plan?

I would suspect that this would be one of the scenarios that would mean a extension of article 50. At least in this election (if there is one) there will be more focus on Brexit and the Labour policy so if they do win then it is a starting point for them to start negotiations. It seems simple though, they want a permanent customs union and close relationship. That screams EEA and the EU will surely be eager to pass this for the UK.

lawred2

Same old same old from some lad on the BBC right now. Matthew Hancock think his name was.

The EU will fold

That's the gameplan

Beechwoodspark

I think now either another ref or else a GE. Second ref more likely

Tell me how

Kiith wrote: »

Once again, the UK government show how absolutely incapable they are of getting anything done. Absolute laughing stock.

The EU should tell them to **** right off if they tried that.

Can the EU actually tell them to **** off though?

It won't endear them to the EU or promote friendly negotiating but can it not be done?

RoryMac

As expected the DUP have confirmed they'll back May tomorrow so we're back where we were an hour ago

Imreoir2

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Well that was a bit of a kicking

She can add record breaking to her list of achievements I guess.

Parliament to debate the no-confidence motion up to 7pm tomorrow evening followed by vote. See you here tomorrow guys.

lawred2

What is May getting out of this..

Time to tell all those vipers she's surrounded by that it's their problem now

Enzokk

prawnsambo wrote: »

You seem to be leaving out the possibility of withdrawing A50

Yes, there is that but I don't know how that passes either. The conservatives will not vote for it neither will Corbyn so the rebels on either side would have to force it. Is there enough support in the middle of either party for that?

Beechwoodspark

Some woman on bbc desperately hoping “Merkl and Macron” will offer the UK something more.

Time wasting and Delusional thinking

Harry Palmr

RoryMac wrote: »

Corbyn's problem is he doesn't have an alternative to May's deal, if he wins tomorrow and wins a GE what will his position be?

Labour need to stage an internal coup and get Kier Starmer made leader Corbyn is as hamstrung as May.

TheValeyard

RoryMac wrote: »

As expected the DUP have confirmed they'll back May tomorrow so we're back where we were an hour ago

I'd say we're back at square one, but I'm not even sure what game were playing anymore, what the rules are or even is there any instructions.

lawred2

The plan is basically to wait for the EU to save the UK from themselves

Beechwoodspark

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Labour need to stage an internal coup and get Kier Starmer made leader Corbyn is as hamstrung as May.

The situation Labour are in shows just how pathetically weak Corbyn is.

secman

Funny watching UK, Great Britain trying to put genie back into the bottle and make Great Britain GREAT again, pure comedy

Enzokk

This is an interesting development for Labour. If they lose the no-confidence motion then at least Corbyn will have to keep quiet about a new election. He will then have to start moving towards a second referendum surely.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, there is that but I don't know how that passes either. The conservatives will not vote for it neither will Corbyn so the rebels on either side would have to force it. Is there enough support in the middle of either party for that?

Many conservatives would vote for it. Labour also. But it requires a degree of testicular fortitude that very few in the HoC have displayed so far.

It's the only sane response to the current stalemate that doesn't extend this debacle for another year or more. And I sense that the EU are really not interested in extending A50. It's eaten up too much time and energy so far and the logjam isn't in their control anyway.

bob mcbob

My view now is that TM's compromise position has satisfied no-one, she now needs to go fully one way or the other.

There is no way that a harder Brexit will be supported by anyone except the hardline Brexiteers so the only way she can get anything through the HoC is getting cross party support (i.e. softer Brexit).

This will result in a split in the Tory party.

hill16bhoy

lawred2 wrote: »

Same old same old from some lad on the BBC right now. Matthew Hancock think his name was.

The EU will fold

That's the gameplan

It's not the EU they believe will fold, it's the Irish government. If there's no second referendum and May comes back and attempts to blackmail this deal through in the last weeks or days, all hell will come down on top of Leo Varadkar - expect the British press to go full colonial oppressor mouthpiece on Ireland.

Notorious

Price of the pound is bouncing back up after dropping pre-vote. Suggests traders think the UK will remain or at the least the timeline will be stretched.

alexmalalex

My guess is that this agreement is not the "real" agreement. Behind the scenes I would assume that negotiations have been ongoing since Dec 11th. They always knew that the arithmetic was against them.

So, I think what we will see is some shape shifting over the next week, a likely extension of the deadline, and another vote in a month or so on the real deal.

No question, they will win the confidence vote - the last thing anyone wants is a GE least of all Labour and the DUP

Adamcp898

Loss of a no confidence vote enough to kick Corbyn, no?

I hope to Christ it is otherwise we're left with May, her plan, Corbyn, and a replay next Monday.

MarkHenderson

Delighted with the result. Hopefully now the UK can get on with the business of leaving the EU as soon as possible.

Seth Brundle

Have any analysts churned out the no-confidence numbers yet?

bilston

I think that after tonight we are a good bit closer to a no deal Brexit.

Tell me how

Enzokk wrote: »

This is an interesting development for Labour. If they lose the no-confidence motion then at least Corbyn will have to keep quiet about a new election. He will then have to start moving towards a second referendum surely.

We could start to see an off-Broadway event taking place with Corbyn being challenged from within Labour while the Tories continue to disagree with each other.

Hurrache

Deluded Johnson's plan is to tell the EU they're getting rid of the backstop and want a Canada+ deal.

Headshot

Im listening to the DUP on BBC.

Isn't it amazing a party wanting to leave the UK while NI voted to remain in Europe. It's disgusting

Captain Obvious

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Have any analysts churned out the no-confidence numbers yet?

Don't Tory members have to give up the whip to go against her? Can't see it happening. I think the most likely scenario is a postponement of the deadline. We may see May or Corbyn gone by weeks end too.

Irishmale0399

Could they not ring Donald and ask him if he wants a new location to build his wall.

On a more serious note....the EU now has to stay hard and not give them an inch. Making consessions now would only encourage countries such as Spain, Greece or Italy to consider leaving themselves....sure they will get what they want in the end.

If anything the EU has to say....off you go now, we made you an offer which we both aggreed on and you turned it down. Should the UK want to remain the EU has to tell them to pay as a full member, no more special deals etc......the UK has to join the Euro.....make them suffer for their stupidy and make them realise how easy they had it up to now.