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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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lawred2

What is May getting out of this..

Time to tell all those vipers she's surrounded by that it's their problem now

Imreoir2

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Well that was a bit of a kicking

She can add record breaking to her list of achievements I guess.

Parliament to debate the no-confidence motion up to 7pm tomorrow evening followed by vote. See you here tomorrow guys.

RoryMac

As expected the DUP have confirmed they'll back May tomorrow so we're back where we were an hour ago

Tell me how

Kiith wrote: »

Once again, the UK government show how absolutely incapable they are of getting anything done. Absolute laughing stock.

The EU should tell them to **** right off if they tried that.

Can the EU actually tell them to **** off though?

It won't endear them to the EU or promote friendly negotiating but can it not be done?

Beechwoodspark

I think now either another ref or else a GE. Second ref more likely

lawred2

Same old same old from some lad on the BBC right now. Matthew Hancock think his name was.

The EU will fold

That's the gameplan

Enzokk

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So If JC wins the no-confidence motion and gets and wins his general election, how much time will be left for him to renegotiate a new agreement with the EU?
Will the EU give more time without JC having a coherent plan?

I would suspect that this would be one of the scenarios that would mean a extension of article 50. At least in this election (if there is one) there will be more focus on Brexit and the Labour policy so if they do win then it is a starting point for them to start negotiations. It seems simple though, they want a permanent customs union and close relationship. That screams EEA and the EU will surely be eager to pass this for the UK.

Adamcp898

Tell me how wrote: »

I suspect they will withdraw article 50 and look to invoke it again.

Cox said today in the HoC again they legally can't withdraw it without assuring the EU they won't invoke it again.

Now how the EU would police that is another story.......

A Dub in Glasgo

Well that was a bit of a kicking

Roger_007

118 Tory MPs voted against May's deal. This is very close to the number who voted against May in the recent Tory leadership confidence motion. How can those MP's do other than vote against the government tomorrow to retain any credibility?

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

We are still in limbo. JRM stated that he will vote for the government tomorrow against the motion of confidence. Which means she most likely wins that vote. But that doesn't solve Brexit as there is no majority for any Brexit other than remaining most likely.

There will not be a majority for her deal.

There will not be a majority for no-deal.

There will not be a majority for a no-confidence.

There will not be a majority for a Labour deal.

There are only two paths that I can see, either a general election or a new referendum. Parliament is not going to pass anything so they will either need to ask the question again or a new election.

You seem to be leaving out the possibility of withdrawing A50

bilston

el Fenomeno wrote: »

For those of us who want a second referendum which will result in no Brexit, this is good news isn't it?

Hard to say

I don't think a second referendum will ever happen with May as PM

Adamcp898

Can we move on from interviewing Matt Hancock please. He's stumbling around in circles.

RoryMac

Headshot wrote: »

I hope he does some how but the upside if he fails, I reckon that's him booted out of labour

It's a win win situation I think

Corbyn's problem is he doesn't have an alternative to May's deal, if he wins tomorrow and wins a GE what will his position be?

Kiith

Once again, the UK government show how absolutely incapable they are of getting anything done. Absolute laughing stock.

Tell me how wrote: »

I suspect they will withdraw article 50 and look to invoke it again.

The EU should tell them to **** right off if they tried that.

Seth Brundle

Tell me how wrote: »

I suspect they will withdraw article 50 and look to invoke it again.

That would work against them severely though.

Tell me how

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So If JC wins the no-confidence motion and gets and wins his general election, how much time will be left for him to renegotiate a new agreement with the EU?
Will the EU give more time without JC having a coherent plan?

I suspect they will withdraw article 50 and look to invoke it again.

Enzokk

We are still in limbo. JRM stated that he will vote for the government tomorrow against the motion of confidence. Which means she most likely wins that vote. But that doesn't solve Brexit as there is no majority for any Brexit other than remaining most likely.

There will not be a majority for her deal.

There will not be a majority for no-deal.

There will not be a majority for a no-confidence.

There will not be a majority for a Labour deal.

There are only two paths that I can see, either a general election or a new referendum. Parliament is not going to pass anything so they will either need to ask the question again or a new election.

el Fenomeno

For those of us who want a second referendum which will result in no Brexit, this is good news isn't it?

secman

bilston wrote: »

Maybe I was imagining things but I'm nearly sure Keir Starmer was nodding his head when May mentioned speaking to other parties about how to get her deal through parliament. Two minutes later Corbyn stood up and basically told May it was too late now.

I thought it was an interesting contrast

I think things might be a lot clearer if Starmer was Labour leader

Corbyn is a joke, any half wit Labour leader would be itching for a GL and would romp home, but Labour under him would struggle to get a majority.

BonnieSituation

Odhinn wrote: »

Will that be held tonight?

Debate tomorrow.

Vote tomorrow.

Business is being debated now by Leader and Shadow Leader.

Headshot

RoryMac wrote: »

Can he get it over the line though?

Surely his position is in danger if he can win the vote

I hope he does some how but the upside if he fails, I reckon that's him booted out of labour

It's a win win situation I think

Seth Brundle

So If JC wins the no-confidence motion and gets and wins his general election, how much time will be left for him to renegotiate a new agreement with the EU?
Will the EU give more time without JC having a coherent plan?

Hurrache

Podge_irl wrote: »

Of course they will. They have more to lose than anyone.

They've already said they would, before the vote.

Capt'n Midnight

A reminder

Lords voted to reject Mrs May’s proposals by 321 to 152 last night.

secman

What a complete mess , Laurel and Hardy politics, you couldnt make it up. Can you only imagine what they would be saying about us if we were in their position now. Unreal

lawred2

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Jeremy C's balls have finally dropped.

She left him with no option. She called him out on it

BonnieSituation

RoryMac wrote: »

I'm liking the speaker, he should be on tv more

Bercow is class. God only knows how much worse that would have been without him the last few years.

CZ 453 wrote: »

I thought that amendment would have far greater support from pro union folk. Why didn't it have more?

They were miffed that they were delaying the main vote. So voted against.

---

Only Scots have points of orders seemingly.

An Ciarraioch

And of course, the Labour conference voted to back a second referendum if and when a MONC is defeated.

bilston

Maybe I was imagining things but I'm nearly sure Keir Starmer was nodding his head when May mentioned speaking to other parties about how to get her deal through parliament. Two minutes later Corbyn stood up and basically told May it was too late now.

I thought it was an interesting contrast

I think things might be a lot clearer if Starmer was Labour leader