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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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EdgeCase

Christy42 wrote: »

If I read that right Belgium gets more of our exports than the UK? Is that goods getting passed on? I wouldn't have thought they would be even the top Non UK EU country.

You have to remember that EU trade stats get completely distorted as various countries are points-of-entry to the EU, and that included the UK which was a major logistics hub for air freight and so on.

Belgium's stats would probably reflect Irish trade into central Europe being booked at Antwerp & Zeebrugge.

It's very hard to untangle the stats on those as there's no border to cross / paperwork.

Shelga

Mr Velo wrote: »

Anyone catch the James O'Brien / Rees - Mogg interview earlier?

https://bit.ly/2HfUGr6

Yes, but I don’t think JOB had the crushing defeat I would have expected, JRM did have an answer for a lot of it, even if the idea of importing beef from Australia instead of France or Ireland is utterly stupid.

I got the impression that it was an impromptu interview and JOB wasn’t fully prepared for it.

FreudianSlippers

Christy42 wrote: »

If I read that right Belgium gets more of our exports than the UK? Is that goods getting passed on? I wouldn't have thought they would be even the top Non UK EU country.

This is a bit out of date, but we are exporting massive amounts of medical / pharmaceutical / chemical products to Belgium.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/exports/belgium

Penn

Shelga wrote: »

Yes, but I don’t think JOB had the crushing defeat I would have expected, JRM did have an answer for a lot of it, even if the idea of importing beef from Australia instead of France or Ireland is utterly stupid.

I got the impression that it was an impromptu interview and JOB wasn’t fully prepared for it.

I think it was more that they only had a limited amount of time and O'Brien just went after the biggest lie JRM keeps peddling. Then their back and forth on it took up so much of the time.

Professor Moriarty

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

This is a bit out of date, but we are exporting massive amounts of medical / pharmaceutical / chemical products to Belgium.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/exports/belgium

Either Belgian people are remarkably prone to illness or Belgium is simply a gateway to the rest of Europe.

FreudianSlippers

demfad wrote: »

Parliament could vote to take control of the Brexit process.

Nick Boles Bill gives May 21 days to come up with an agreement that can pass. The responsibility then goes to the Liaison committee to come up with an alternative (Norway+). This is put to Parliament. If it is rejected the committee ask the Prime Minister to ask the EU to extend A50.

https://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/grantham-mp-nick-boles-in-a-very-british-coup-as-rebels-try-to-take-control-of-brexit-9059055/

Link's not opening for me for some reason - but wasn't the 21-day time reduced to 3 days last week, or is this bill suggesting that it be increased again to 21 days?

prawnsambo

EdgeCase wrote: »

You have to remember that EU trade stats get completely distorted as various countries are points-of-entry to the EU, and that included the UK which was a major logistics hub for air freight and so on.

Belgium's stats would probably reflect Irish trade into central Europe being booked at Antwerp & Zeebrugge.

It's very hard to untangle the stats on those as there's no border to cross / paperwork.

Afaik, those stats come from forms filled out by businesses on a monthly basis. So they should accurately reflect the final destinations of goods, not the transit point through which they are exported. Otherwise, everything would be exported to Holyhead.

An Ciarraioch

Boreham Wood FC issue a bizarre pro-Brexit call to arms, and Doncaster Belles respond:

https://www.borehamwoodfootballclub.co.uk/uncategorized/mps-do-your-duty/

https://www.doncasterroversbelles.co.uk/in-response-to-boreham-wood/

mikep

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Either Belgian people are remarkably prone to illness or Belgium is simply a gateway to the rest of Europe.

AFAIK this relates to active pharmaceuticals being sent there from manufacturing sites for tabletting and distribution.

FreudianSlippers

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Either Belgian people are remarkably prone to illness or Belgium is simply a gateway to the rest of Europe.

I believe Antwerp is the largest drug-redistribution hub in the world. I think there is some patent implications there, but I'm not 100% on that.

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Boreham Wood FC issue a bizarre pro-Brexit call to arms, and Doncaster Belles respond:

https://www.borehamwoodfootballclub.co.uk/uncategorized/mps-do-your-duty/

https://www.doncasterroversbelles.co.uk/in-response-to-boreham-wood/

their web guy took some liberties there

[Deleted User]

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Either Belgian people are remarkably prone to illness or Belgium is simply a gateway to the rest of Europe.

The latter, same as we were once the largest producer/exporter of software in the world because of how Microsoft Ireland was used for localization etc.

FreudianSlippers

Someone kill that guy with the bell already.

Hurrache

- So what do we do if plan A doesn't work?
- Scribble out 'A' and write in 'B'.
- Genius, let's do it.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085198072131444736

Enzokk

Shelga wrote: »

Yes, but I don’t think JOB had the crushing defeat I would have expected, JRM did have an answer for a lot of it, even if the idea of importing beef from Australia instead of France or Ireland is utterly stupid.

I got the impression that it was an impromptu interview and JOB wasn’t fully prepared for it.

I also don't think he crushed him, but he did make him look very silly. When I listened to it a second time it occurred to me that whatever JRM was saying was just fantasy slogans that didn't mean anything. JRM lost the argument when he refused to confirm something that is very easy to find and confirm online. After that he was just trying to deflect from the question.

FreudianSlippers

Hurrache wrote: »

- So what do we do if plan A doesn't work?
- Scribble out 'A' and write in 'B'.
- Genius, let's do it.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085198072131444736

That's why 2nd referendum or GE are the only viable options. There's no other deal on the table, so what's the point in going off to ponce around Brussels for a few days?

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

- So what do we do if plan A doesn't work?
- Scribble out 'A' and write in 'B'.
- Genius, let's do it.

You would hope that Bercow would not allow this to happen as it would just be wasting time. How would anyone change their minds in 3 days time? The Grieve amendment is really good in that May cannot delay until 3 weeks later and have the pressure of no-deal force MPs to vote for her deal out of fear. That doesn't change it into a good deal, just makes it the less worse option that they can take, and surely taking the least worse option is not something MPs should be considering.

The best deal out there is still staying as part of the EU and having their rebates and opt-outs they currently have. If you have a deal where you have no say in the regulations or rules you have to follow, as May's deal, it is worse than they currently have.

Professor Moriarty

Grieve speaking in Parliament just now. As an aside, he mentions that he continues to receive death threats as a result of his Brexit stance. Well done the British Press.

EdgeCase

prawnsambo wrote: »

Afaik, those stats come from forms filled out by businesses on a monthly basis. So they should accurately reflect the final destinations of goods, not the transit point through which they are exported. Otherwise, everything would be exported to Holyhead.

A lot of it would be sales of pharma products to distribution subsidiaries and companies and so on.

It's unlikely to be simple goods all going to belgium.

FreudianSlippers

joe40 wrote: »

I know there is a lot of talk about a second referendum and I agree it seems the only sensible option at this stage but where would it come from.
I can't see the tory government giving another referendum while still in power.

A no confidence vote by corbyn would probably be defeated so no new election. Even with a GE and Labour govt would Corbyn call another referendum?

I don't know, plenty of knowledgeable people on this forum so what would be the mechanics of achieving another referendum. How would it come about. I'll admit I'm at a loss to see how it could happen.

Is it conceivable that May would call for another vote after all she has said about respecting the will of the people.

Thinking about this a good bit and the three option referendum just wouldn't work. I think the only viable option for Teresa May would be to have two referenda on the ballot:

Question 1:
Yes / No on May's deal

Question 2:
If "no" to May's deal, Yes / No to remain in the EU

robinph

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Thinking about this a good bit and the three option referendum just wouldn't work. I think the only viable option for Teresa May would be to have two referenda on the ballot:

Question 1:
Yes / No on May's deal

Question 2:
If "no" to May's deal, Yes / No to remain in the EU

That would be too confusing for people as they would ignore question 2 depending on their answer to question 1 and then claim that their opinion was not heard.

Doesn't need to be two separate questions though if the options were Mays deal or remain.

FreudianSlippers

robinph wrote: »

That would be too confusing for people as they would ignore question 2 depending on their answer to question 1 and then claim that their opinion was not heard.

Doesn't need to be two separate questions though if the options were Mays deal or remain.

If no deal is genuinely not an option. Do you think it's likely May would get that through Parliament?

Akrasia

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

If no deal is genuinely not an option. Do you think it's likely May would get that through Parliament?

The parliament has already shown that they would vote to exclude a no deal, but I don't think there is a majority that May's deal is the only viable deal. There are still plenty of MPs who think they can get a Norway/Canada/EEA style deal despite the fact that there isn't any time to negotiate any such deal and

I think the EU will need to step in and insist that it's a vote between the agreed withdrawal agreement and remaining as a condition of an extension to Article 50 to facilitate a vote.

Anything else is just a waste of everyone's time. The UK public can blame Theresa May for her 'red lines' and strategy of wasting everyone's time for so long for the fact that brexit wasn't delivered.

Akrasia

MPs speaking now don't know the difference between the withdrawal agreement and the 'deal' which hasn't even been started yet.

This 'deal' is just the WA, the divorce agreement. The future relationship is going to be negotiated afterwards.

prawnsambo

EdgeCase wrote: »

A lot of it would be sales of pharma products to distribution subsidiaries and companies and so on.

It's unlikely to be simple goods all going to belgium.

Yes. But for the Irish exporter, that's the final destination of their product. What happens downstream is their customer's business which is separately analysed. Beef packers don't care that their customer turns their product into a M&S ready meal and the CSO can't quantify that.

Hurrache

Akrasia wrote: »

MPs speaking now don't know the difference between the withdrawal agreement and the 'deal' which hasn't even been started yet.

This 'deal' is just the WA, the divorce agreement. The future relationship is going to be negotiated afterwards.

It's unbelievable isn't it, but unsurprising given the level of debate on the over the years.

Andrea Leadsom said this today
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085199452640559104

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

You would hope that Bercow would not allow this to happen as it would just be wasting time. How would anyone change their minds in 3 days time? The Grieve amendment is really good in that May cannot delay until 3 weeks later and have the pressure of no-deal force MPs to vote for her deal out of fear. That doesn't change it into a good deal, just makes it the less worse option that they can take, and surely taking the least worse option is not something MPs should be considering.

The best deal out there is still staying as part of the EU and having their rebates and opt-outs they currently have. If you have a deal where you have no say in the regulations or rules you have to follow, as May's deal, it is worse than they currently have.

My understanding is that May doesn't have to actually detail out a Plan B in three days, certainly not something that she is then forced to stick to.

It can be as fluffy as simply saying she is going to work even harder and go back to the EU for further talks.

Professor Moriarty

Akrasia wrote: »

MPs speaking now don't know the difference between the withdrawal agreement and the 'deal' which hasn't even been started yet.

This 'deal' is just the WA, the divorce agreement. The future relationship is going to be negotiated afterwards.

Ken Clarke made that very point at the opening of the debate. It's a meaningless piece of paper (or "harmless" as Clarke put it) in many respects.

spacecoyote

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

If no deal is genuinely not an option. Do you think it's likely May would get that through Parliament?

A 3 question referendum with the options of:

Remain
TM Deal
No Deal

Would be music to Remainer's ears I would have thought? The Remain vote would, at minimum likely stay the same, but the Leave vote would be diluted by a split between the 2 other options

VinLieger

spacecoyote wrote: »

A 3 question referendum with the options of:

Remain
TM Deal
No Deal

Would be music to Remainer's ears I would have thought? The Remain vote would, at minimum likely stay the same, but the Leave vote would be diluted by a split between the 2 other options

If no options gets a 50% majority would you have a run off? I cant see how having only a 3 option ref works without splitting the country even further due to the chance of there being no clear 50% majority