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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Christy42

Berserker wrote: »

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Still coming out with that old chestnut

Yeah, it's called reality. I'll change it when the UK comes out and says it wants a hard border on the island.

The UK haven't said what they want. Something has to happen.

Many have said they want WTO rules purely. WTO rules state that all countries get the same rates. That means if they give the EU 0% through that border they have to give everyone 0%. Do you think they are suggesting world wide 0% tariffs? Or will they check goods on the border to charge tariffs?

One of these two has to be their choice since many have talked about WTO rules.

Imreoir2

Berserker wrote: »

Yeah, it's called reality. I'll change it when the UK comes out and says it wants a hard border on the island.

Why do you keep talking about what the UK wants? If the UK only had to do the things it wants, then it would be a magical pixie land. The reality is that warm words are not enough to prevent a border being erected, there must be solid legal guarantees in place.

Donald Trump

Berserker wrote: »

Yeah, it's called reality. I'll change it when the UK comes out and says it wants a hard border on the island.

No. You are wrong.

EU does deals with other countries. There will be an agreement with standards etc.

What other country would do a deal if EU does not control the flow of goods in and out?

Hypothetical scenario: EU does trade deal with US. Ireland gets to export X-million tonnes of prime lamb to US subject to stringent traceability and testing which EU enforces. However, UK decides to import cheap live imports of sheep from, lets say, North Africa where there is no traceability or eradication programs for common diseases.

Then there is an open back door into EU from NI. What do you think the US will do now? Say "Ah don't worry about it lads, be grand"

You don't wait for these things to arise before you consider them a problem. Loopholes are taken out of contracts before they are signed.

So the border has to be controlled unless their rules and standards are at least at EU standard

A Dub in Glasgo

Berserker wrote: »

Yeah, it's called reality. I'll change it when the UK comes out and says it wants a hard border on the island.

I added this to the post as you ignored it yeaterday

'When you look back at one of the major Brexit rallying calls which is 'Take back control of our Borders', how does having an open border with the one and only UK/EU land border take back control of those borders?'

Thomas_IV

Tell me how wrote: »

That's fine, I don't use FB myself but like them or loathe them, they are ever more influential mediums in today's world.

To ignore this would be to tell Cambridge Analytica 2.0, you just do your thing over there, I'm not going to pay attention.

No way joining Twitter of FB for the aforemetioned reasons to which I can only add the recent data scandals by both companies. I never trusted them and I never will trust them. It is enough to read the crap posted there when it appears on other sites in quotations.

The many people who use them both have made them to an ever more influential medium which says that it can also be reversed by ceasing to use them but this won't happen as the many people who use them really can't live without them anymore and that is what twatter and Farcebook were always after. To make the people dependent on them (mentally and emotionally).

FreudianSlippers

GM228 wrote: »

Hum, I though the EU insisted their wouldn't be.

https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1085121753729388544?s=19

These kind of comments from Member States are silly - the Commission is negotiating and has made no indications that they are open to further negotiation; I think yesterday's letter backs up that position.

josip

The complete lack of integrity from most of the current UK MPs reminded me of Robin Cook's resignation over Iraq.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9CqiiI2Irg
Funny to see who's sitting behind Cook.

Hurrache

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I added this to the post as you ignored it yeaterday

'When you look back at one of the major Brexit rallying calls which is 'Take back control of our Borders', how does having an open border with the one and only UK/EU land border take back control of those borders?'

You won't get an answer, as people posting things like that don't have an answer, just a soundbite.

I also asked someone several times how it reconciles with taking back control of their borders but they seemed to have a sudden onset of selective blindness.

FreudianSlippers

Berserker wrote: »

The UK is not making an issue out of the hard border. Nobody on that side has any interest in having a hard border on the island of Ireland. The DUP don't want one either. If the EU is happy to have no border on the island then there is nothing to worry about on that front.

I mean... unless the UK wants to trade on WTO terms. Without a hard border the UK would not be able to comply with the rules.

The EU would not require a hard border, since Ireland isn't in Schengen.

Hurrache

Thomas_IV wrote: »

No way joining Twitter of FB for the aforemetioned reasons to which I can only add the recent data scandals by both companies. I never trusted them and I never will trust them. It is enough to read the crap posted there when it appears on other sites in quotations.

The many people who use them both have made them to an ever more influential medium which says that it can also be reversed by ceasing to use them but this won't happen as the many people who use them really can't live without them anymore and that is what twatter and Farcebook were always after. To make the people dependent on them (mentally and emotionally).

You don't have to read and follow all and sundry on Twitter. You can be selective as to what type of feed you have, to a point, and it's a very useful medium.

demfad

Akrasia wrote: »

Here's an email I have just sent to thehardshoulder@newstalk.com

Thanks for being pro-active!

Ive emailed a few more.

Why was a staffer in the European Party of Freedom and Democracy Party (EFDD) printing from the Russian embassy in Brussels when you were the Party's head? (I believe Hermann Kelly (Irexit) was Communications Director for the party at this time?)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/18/nigel-farage-party-staffer-russian-embassy-smear-campaign-kremlin-critic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermann_Kelly

Can Mr Farage shed any light on the arrest of Farage aide George Cottrell who was arrested in the company of Farage at O'Hare airport in 2016 and charged with 21 counts of money laundering, bribery and wire fraud?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/former-nigel-farage-aide-us-information-plea-deal-court-files-george-cottrell

Can he explain the multiple meetings between Leave.EU Officials and Russian officials before and after the referendum including Alexander Yakovenko the Russian ambassador in and Alexander Udod. a diplomat who was subsequently expelled from the U.K. over the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter.?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jun/16/leave-eu-russia-arron-banks-andy-wigmore

(Alexander Yakovenko, was identified by US special counsel Robert Mueller as a high-level intermediary between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. Alexander Udod. a diplomat who was subsequently expelled from the U.K. over the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter)

The day after one of the meetings between Banks, his Leave.EU partner Andy Wigmore and the ambassador, Wigmore sent a Russian diplomat an email entitled "Fw Cottrell docs – Eyes Only" with 6 attachments on Cottrells arrest.
Does Mr Farage know why Wigmore would do this?

Why did the Russians and Leave.EU share an interest in the details of Cottrells arrest for money laundering and wire fraud?

john9876

Thomas_IV wrote: »

I'd gladly support you there, but there's the problem of having a UK govt with diehard Brexiters and the DUP breathing down its neck and Corbyn who is himself also a Brexiter which gives it little chances to get such a motion for a BrexitRef2 tabled in the Commons.

The Labour Party voted the wrong man in to lead the party and that twice.

I think what Corbyn says in public and what he will actually do might be different.
I think that for him getting into power is more important than what's best for the country.
No option may have majority support but eventually it will come down to which option is the most pragmatic and I believe more MPs think that another referendum is less painful than all the other options.

Thomas_IV

john9876 wrote: »

I think what Corbyn says in public and what he will actually do might be different.
I think that for him getting into power is more important than what's best for the country.
No option may have majority support but eventually it will come down to which option is the most pragmatic and I believe more MPs think that another referendum is less painful than all the other options.

I agree with you there. We'll have to wait and see what turns out of this mess.

BrexitRef2 would be my favourite, no doubt, but unless a majority in favour of tabling one I fear that it will be too late for it, even by considering an extention of the exit date by the EU (UK Parliament would also had to carry that in the first place).

I think that I'll call it a day for today and see what the morning brings as by tomorrow we'll all know the result of the meaningful vote and maybe what comes afterwards.

Zubeneschamali

Berserker wrote: »

The EU is preparing for an extension period til July.

Yes, July is doable, as that's before the Euro elections happen. So if May asked for an extension to hold a 2nd referendum, options Her Deal or No Brexit, the EU might as well say OK, the worst that can happen is Mays deal which they already agreed.

But if May says she needs 3 months to faff about in Westminster and the options are her deal or No Deal, the EU should say nope, not helping No Deal look more attractive, you want No Deal it happens on march 29th, in 10 weeks.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, July is doable, as that's before the Euro elections happen. So if May asked for an extension to hold a 2nd referendum, options Her Deal or No Brexit, the EU might as well say OK, the worst that can happen is Mays deal which they already agreed.

But if May says she needs 3 months to faff about in Westminster and the options are her deal or No Deal, the EU should say nope, not helping No Deal look more attractive, you want No Deal it happens on march 29th, in 10 weeks.

Actually, they don't have that much time. EU elections are end of May (pardon the pun).

joe40

I know there is a lot of talk about a second referendum and I agree it seems the only sensible option at this stage but where would it come from.
I can't see the tory government giving another referendum while still in power.

A no confidence vote by corbyn would probably be defeated so no new election. Even with a GE and Labour govt would Corbyn call another referendum?

I don't know, plenty of knowledgeable people on this forum so what would be the mechanics of achieving another referendum. How would it come about. I'll admit I'm at a loss to see how it could happen.

Is it conceivable that May would call for another vote after all she has said about respecting the will of the people.

lawred2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, July is doable, as that's before the Euro elections happen. So if May asked for an extension to hold a 2nd referendum, options Her Deal or No Brexit, the EU might as well say OK, the worst that can happen is Mays deal which they already agreed.

But if May says she needs 3 months to faff about in Westminster and the options are her deal or No Deal, the EU should say nope, not helping No Deal look more attractive, you want No Deal it happens on march 29th, in 10 weeks.

uuurgggh

July means 6 more months of this tiresome nonsense

fash

Berserker wrote: »

The UK is not making an issue out of the hard border. Nobody on that side has any interest in having a hard border on the island of Ireland. The DUP don't want one either. If the EU is happy to have no border on the island then there is nothing to worry about on that front.

Yet again, the " as I repeatedly said, I don't want and have no intention to rape this woman, however I intend to have sexual relations despite her protestations to the contrary" nonsense.

igCorcaigh

john9876 wrote: »

I think what Corbyn says in public and what he will actually do might be different.
I think that for him getting into power is more important than what's best for the country.
.

I'm sure he'd argue that him getting into power is what's best for the country. And considering the tory legacy, I'd be inclined to agree.

An Ciarraioch

Latest trade stats, confirming the lessening of our dependence on GB markets:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsnovember2018/

FreudianSlippers

joe40 wrote: »

A no confidence vote by corbyn would probably be defeated so no new election. Even with a GE and Labour govt would Corbyn call another referendum?

Only if the DUP continue to be on side and that no Torys vote against their own government. I'm not sure either of those things are guaranteed at the moment.

Akrasia

lawred2 wrote: »

uuurgggh

July means 6 more months of this tiresome nonsense

That's about as long as it takes to hold a referendum under UK law.

If there is a 2nd referendum and they decide to remain, that's 6 months of campaigning followed by probably 3 or four months of sour grapes by the brexit side

If there is a 2nd referendum and they vote to leave, that's 6 months of a campaign plus years more of constant brexit negotiations, brinkmanship, red lines, etc etc etc as the UK negotiate it's future relationship with the EU and the other trade deals with the rest of the world.

If there isn't a 2nd referendum and the UK crashes out or accepts Mays deal, this brexit thing is far from over. If you think you're tired of hearing about it now. How will you feel in 2022 when the same nonsense is still dominating the political discourse in Ireland and the UK.

john9876

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm sure he'd argue that him getting into power is what's best for the country. And considering the tory legacy, I'd be inclined to agree.

God, a no deal Brexit followed by a Corbyn left wing re-nationalising government would destroy the country ... and that's from someone who's always voted Labour.

Enzokk

Jacob Rees-Mogg had an interesting exchange with James O'Brien.

James O'Brien's Unmissable Exchange With Jacob Rees-Mogg Over Brexit Vote

I am not sure if he destroyed him but he did make him look bad when he refused to answer a simple question. JRM once again mentioned how no-deal would mean cheaper food, clothing and footwear for the people of the UK. He refused to address that the economist whose projections he follows (Patrick Minford) also said that agriculture and manufacturing will be run down much like the steel and coal industries.

https://twitter.com/antoni_UK/status/1054404213504200706

Also, here we have a table of accuracy for projections and the Liverpool Research Group, Patrick Minford, is right at the bottom.

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1079294495253057536

Those employed in manufacturing in the UK will hope that Minford is as accurate as the table shows in a no-deal Brexit, for their livelihood sake.

PropJoe10

joe40 wrote: »

I know there is a lot of talk about a second referendum and I agree it seems the only sensible option at this stage but where would it come from.
I can't see the tory government giving another referendum while still in power.

A no confidence vote by corbyn would probably be defeated so no new election. Even with a GE and Labour govt would Corbyn call another referendum?

I don't know, plenty of knowledgeable people on this forum so what would be the mechanics of achieving another referendum. How would it come about. I'll admit I'm at a loss to see how it could happen.

Is it conceivable that May would call for another vote after all she has said about respecting the will of the people.

No chance. She'll resign before agreeing to that.

Mr Velo

Anyone catch the James O'Brien / Rees - Mogg interview earlier?

https://bit.ly/2HfUGr6

Mr Velo

Mr Velo wrote: »

Anyone catch the James O'Brien / Rees - Mogg interview earlier?

https://bit.ly/2HfUGr6

Sorry - EnzoKK got there before me.

Christy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest trade stats, confirming the lessening of our dependence on GB markets:

https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/gei/goodsexportsandimportsnovember2018/

If I read that right Belgium gets more of our exports than the UK? Is that goods getting passed on? I wouldn't have thought they would be even the top Non UK EU country.

Akrasia

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Only if the DUP continue to be on side and that no Torys vote against their own government. I'm not sure either of those things are guaranteed at the moment.

I hope that the ERG loons don't figure out that one of their last hopes to secure a hard brexit is to vote no confidence in the government

Here's the logic

If the no confidence motion fails, Corbyn is forced to call for a 2nd referendum which the ERG et al know they will lose

If the no confidence motion passes, Corbyn will push for a general election in which both labour and the Tories will campaign on 'delivering brexit' much to the frustration of the EU who could wake up 8 weeks from now to another hung parliament or another prime minister who is still convinced they can 'renegotiate a better deal' from the EU.
All of this eating into the time and patience of the EU 27 who can only allow this limbo to last for so long.

demfad

joe40 wrote: »

I know there is a lot of talk about a second referendum and I agree it seems the only sensible option at this stage but where would it come from.
I can't see the tory government giving another referendum while still in power.

A no confidence vote by corbyn would probably be defeated so no new election. Even with a GE and Labour govt would Corbyn call another referendum?

I don't know, plenty of knowledgeable people on this forum so what would be the mechanics of achieving another referendum. How would it come about. I'll admit I'm at a loss to see how it could happen.

Is it conceivable that May would call for another vote after all she has said about respecting the will of the people.

Parliament could vote to take control of the Brexit process.

Nick Boles Bill gives May 21 days to come up with an agreement that can pass. The responsibility then goes to the Liaison committee to come up with an alternative (Norway+). This is put to Parliament. If it is rejected the committee ask the Prime Minister to ask the EU to extend A50.

https://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/grantham-mp-nick-boles-in-a-very-british-coup-as-rebels-try-to-take-control-of-brexit-9059055/