nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

Thomas_IV

The meaninful vote on the meaningful day, it's history in the making today as the f*** Brexit Brits (including Comrade Corbyn) will just jump off the cliff by voting down the deal which in its result will make it more likely that the UK is exiting the EU without a deal than as (like some presume) to remain in the EU. This will open the path towards an IndyRef2 in Scotland and, thanks to the stupid DUP, to a UI.

Whether some in the Republic like it or not, one day it'll come to that cos the Scots neither want nor can afford to take the stupid (DUP) Norn-Ireland Unionists in (this was never a matter to be even considered by Scotland anyway, but I presume that some Ulster Scots Unionists might have some similar wet dreams like the many Brexiters anticipate the 'promised land' arising on the horizon).

This will only be a matter of time and by that I mean a couple of years.

Akrasia

Tell me how wrote: »

The justification of a second referendum is just too difficult, it is too easy for Brexiteers to say that May was always a remainer, she negotiated an EU friendly deal and now wants to sideswipe the democratic vote to leave.

If they leave, change government, have issues and then want to come back, at least democracy would be seen to have been upheld.

But that can't happen overnight and the potential trouble in the years after the leave for them, us, and the eU project will influence if they do ever want to return.

Trying to please the hard brexiteers is a mugs game. If they leave, and have issues, those exact same people will still be crowing about how the EU are sabotaging an independent Britain. They're going to play the victim card even as you give them everything they ever asked for.

The brexiteers have been lying the whole way through the process and they've been ducking any responsibility to come up with any meaningful plan for the last 3 years. The brexiteers could have challenged for the tory leadership but they didn't. May didn't even have to be elected, she won by default. The brexiteers had a chance to get May out in her vote of no confidence, they failed then too, there were hardcore brexiteers appointed to lead the EU negotiations and they failed at getting any concessions and then resigned because they're more comfortable hurling from the ditch than actually implementing any plan.

Trying to pander to these people is pointless, they will never be happy, and it is also extremely damaging because their ideas are intellectually bankrupt and their proposals are a one way trip to destitution and the ultimate breakup of the UK

ancapailldorcha

Low quality posts deleted.

Hurrache

Who'd have thought The Sun would be running with factual inaccuracies. Ah heck, call it for what they are, lies.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1085115718532808704

https://twitter.com/NvOndarza/status/1085107068439277569

joe40

Is there a chance that May might resign this evening if the expected heavy defeat comes to pass, or is this vote just part of the theatrics.
I don't think she will but it will it not be unprecedented territory for a PM to continue after such a defeat. Maybe it has happened it the past I don't know

Tell me how

joe40 wrote: »

Is there a chance that May might resign this evening if the expected heavy defeat comes to pass, or is this vote just part of the theatrics.
I don't think she will but it will it not be unprecedented territory for a PM to continue after such a defeat. Maybe it has happened it the past I don't know

Hasn't happened in the past because there will never have been a defeat like it in the past over such a momentus topic.

I think she will stay, she will be accused of 'clinging' to power but I'm willing to giver her credit to suggest that she knows that there is no one else any more capable than her in the picture.

Cameron got abuse for leaving quickly. If she goes, she will get abuse, if she stays, she will get abuse.
I suspect she might force Labours hand to call a motion of No confidence, just to defeat them and put them back in their box in terms of a GE.

Thomas_IV

joe40 wrote: »

Is there a chance that May might resign this evening if the expected heavy defeat comes to pass, or is this vote just part of the theatrics.
I don't think she will but it will it not be unprecedented territory for a PM to continue after such a defeat. Maybe it has happened it the past I don't know

I think that we'll have to wait for another three days until the Corbynistas in the Commons will stage the no-confidence vote in the UK govt in the Commons when she fails to submit that requested (demanded more like) 'Plan B' for Brexit.

After all these years following this self-inflicted Brexit-Brit-Madness, I am somewhat fed up with this that I have now reached the point where I don't give a fiddlers anymore on what they vote for and how many will vote for the no-deal Brexit cos this was their plan all along anyway. I just still pity the Remainers in the UK cos these Brexiteers have really ruined their future when the deal is voted down this night.

demfad

Tell me how wrote: »

Questions for Nigel Farage (if you're reading Ivan. )

How come Brexit has not been as easy to deliver as you said it would be?
Were you aware the Leave campaign was overspending during the referendum campaign?
Do you still think there should be a second referendum (as he said previously on Andrew Marr show)?
What do you think should happen if the deal is rejected this evening?

Is it true that you have been interviewed twice by Robert Mueller and are a subject (probable target) of his investigation?

Did you transfer data to/from Julian Assange via thumb drive as reported in US congressional testimony?

Did you illegally organise the use of Cambridge Analytica in Brexit?

Were you aware and part of the conspiracy between Cambridge Analytica and the Internet Research Agency (St Petersburg) to coordinate social media campaigns in Brexit and the 2016 US elections?

Why were you working on Calexit (until the CEO absconded to Russia) which was another Russian operation to try and secede California from the USA?

Were you involved in organising the transfer of up to £8m of laundered funding from Russia via AAron Banks to two Leave campaigns?

Is your European Parliamentary group the EFDD a front for Russian undermining of the EU?

Was the EFDD funded by laundered money from the EU Passports for Oligarchs scheme in Malta?

Did you travel to Lithuania to organise the circulation of propaganda against an anti-Putin Lithuanian President, which was translated by Russia and delivered to every MEPs pigeon hold by your closest staffer Kevin Ellul Bonici and three other Russian agents?

Why was Ellul Bonici printing from the Russian embassy in Brussels (and why did Comms director Hermann Kelly of Irexit allow this?)
Why does Ellul Bonnici have an RT.com account to upload your Videos on YouTube?

Did you concede defeat 52:48 for remain on referendum night knowing a poll told you the true result so that Crispin Odley and other backers of Brexit could make a fortune (he made £200m +) on the sharp rise and then absolute crash of sterling in the 2 hours after the result?

etc.? etc.?

Are you in fact an asset/agent for the Russian State?

Tell me how

Akrasia wrote: »

Trying to please the hard brexiteers is a mugs game. If they leave, and have issues, those exact same people will still be crowing about how the EU are sabotaging an independent Britain. They're going to play the victim card even as you give them everything they ever asked for.

The brexiteers have been lying the whole way through the process and they've been ducking any responsibility to come up with any meaningful plan for the last 3 years. The brexiteers could have challenged for the tory leadership but they didn't. May didn't even have to be elected, she won by default. The brexiteers had a chance to get May out in her vote of no confidence, they failed then too, there were hardcore brexiteers appointed to lead the EU negotiations and they failed at getting any concessions and then resigned because they're more comfortable hurling from the ditch than actually implementing any plan.

Trying to pander to these people is pointless, they will never be happy, and it is also extremely damaging because their ideas are intellectually bankrupt and their proposals are a one way trip to destitution and the ultimate breakup of the UK

All of this is true. But, those same Brexiteers have manipulated the country in to this position.

While I think Brexit not happening would be best, the implication of not being seen to follow through on a democratic referendum result will have implications should it happen.

murphaph

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

David Davis: We will go back to them with an offer of a free trade deal, we will be in a strong position. "Canada +++" etc etc etc

"A brighter and better future"

Insanity. Such a deal would guarantee a hard regulatory CV and customs border. EU says that can't be in Ireland. Back to square one.

British politics needs a reboot.

Berserker

Thomas_IV wrote: »

This will open the path towards an IndyRef2 in Scotland and, thanks to the stupid DUP, to a UI.

It won't. One of the main concerns that voters had in the last referendum was the position that an independent Scotland would have in the EU. If an 'IndyRef2' happens Scotland will have to apply for membership and serve their time. No chance that the Scots will vote for independence under those terms. A second referendum is a complete waste of money and time. I know people who votes Yes last time in that election and they won't be doing that again. The UK is leaving the EU at the end of March on a no-deal basis. Nothing big to worry about here. I'm sure the EU will give us plenty of assistance if times get tough!

Thomas_IV wrote: »

Whether some in the Republic like it or not, one day it'll come to that cos the Scots neither want nor can afford to take the stupid (DUP) Norn-Ireland Unionists in (this was never a matter to be even considered by Scotland anyway, but I presume that some Ulster Scots Unionists might have some similar wet dreams like the many Brexiters anticipate the 'promised land' arising on the horizon).

This will only be a matter of time and by that I mean a couple of years.

What are you talking about here? Is this some UI nonsense? Laughable to suggest that the RoI could ever afford one. Can't even afford to balance the books as is.

lawred2

Thomas_IV wrote: »

The meaninful vote on the meaningful day, it's history in the making today as the f*** Brexit Brits (including Comrade Corbyn) will just jump off the cliff by voting down the deal which in its result will make it more likely that the UK is exiting the EU without a deal than as (like some presume) to remain in the EU. This will open the path towards an IndyRef2 in Scotland and, thanks to the stupid DUP, to a UI.

Whether some in the Republic like it or not, one day it'll come to that cos the Scots neither want nor can afford to take the stupid (DUP) Norn-Ireland Unionists in (this was never a matter to be even considered by Scotland anyway, but I presume that some Ulster Scots Unionists might have some similar wet dreams like the many Brexiters anticipate the 'promised land' arising on the horizon).

This will only be a matter of time and by that I mean a couple of years.

why would Scotland be taking in people from Northern Ireland?

Ulster Scots they may identify as but they are not some nomadic tribe.

Some uber British flag waving types might struggle with a UI and see fit to relocate to Hull or Wigan but they'll be in the minority

Akrasia

joe40 wrote: »

Is there a chance that May might resign this evening if the expected heavy defeat comes to pass, or is this vote just part of the theatrics.
I don't think she will but it will it not be unprecedented territory for a PM to continue after such a defeat. Maybe it has happened it the past I don't know

Theresa May won't resign, When Corbyn calls the vote of no confidence, the parliament will vote against it.

The brexiteers will happily say in public that the government are incapable of negotiating a good deal, while supporting them in a no confidence motion. And this is the world of UK politics

lawred2

Akrasia wrote: »

Theresa May won't resign, When Corbyn calls the vote of no confidence, the parliament will vote against it.

The brexiteers will happily say in public that the government are incapable of negotiating a good deal, while supporting them in a no confidence motion. And this is the world of UK politics

more deranged parliament behaviour

trash the PM's deal - her single biggest deliverable as PM but still vote confidence in her

cuckoo

Akrasia

demfad wrote: »

Is it true that you have been interviewed twice by Robert Mueller and are a subject (probable target) of his investigation?

Did you transfer data to/from Julian Assange via thumb drive as reported in US congressional testimony?

Did you illegally organise the use of Cambridge Analytica in Brexit?

Were you aware and part of the conspiracy between Cambridge Analytica and the Internet Research Agency (St Petersburg) to coordinate social media campaigns in Brexit and the 2016 US elections?

Why were you working on Calexit (until the CEO absconded to Russia) which was another Russian operation to try and secede California from the USA?

Were you involved in organising the transfer of up to £8m of laundered funding from Russia via AAron Banks to two Leave campaigns?

Is your European Parliamentary group the EFDD a front for Russian undermining of the EU?

Was the EFDD funded by laundered money from the EU Passports for Oligarchs scheme in Malta?

Did you travel to Lithuania to organise the circulation of propaganda against an anti-Putin Lithuanian President, which was translated by Russia and delivered to every MEPs pigeon hold by your closest staffer Kevin Ellul Bonici and three other Russian agents?

Why was Ellul Bonici printing from the Russian embassy in Brussels (and why did Comms director Hermann Kelly of Irexit allow this?)
Why does Ellul Bonnici have an RT.com account to upload your Videos on YouTube?

Did you concede defeat 52:48 for remain on referendum night knowing a poll told you the true result so that Crispin Odley and other backers of Brexit could make a fortune (he made £200m +) on the sharp rise and then absolute crash of sterling in the 2 hours after the result?

etc.? etc.?

Are you in fact an asset/agent for the Russian State?

Any chance you could email this list of questions to the Newstalk Producers of his show?

thehardshoulder@newstalk.com

In fact, maybe lots of people should email these questions or versions of them so we can have some chance that Farage will be given the welcome he so richly deserves

Berserker

Akrasia wrote: »

Theresa May won't resign, When Corbyn calls the vote of no confidence, the parliament will vote against it.

May will stay put until April when Brexit kicks in. If an extension is granted, she'll hold of for that period.

Akrasia

Tell me how wrote: »

All of this is true. But, those same Brexiteers have manipulated the country in to this position.

While I think Brexit not happening would be best, the implication of not being seen to follow through on a democratic referendum result will have implications should it happen.

Democratic results can be superceeded by another vote.

The democratic will of the UK population to leave the EU can be replaced by another vote where they democratically decide to not leave the EU.

There have been a lot of changes since that first vote. A lot has changed and there is an awful lot more information now than there was in the past.

A vote now will be a vote based on concrete proposals, compared to the last vote on aspiration and wishful thinking.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

That will put the EU in a very difficult spot. Opt for a time limit, on a futire deal they all agree will eventually be done, or deal with a crash out, and a hard border.

No, it won't put the EU anywhere new. The EU position has been, to coin a phrase, very clear throughout. They will simply tell May No, go back to Westminster and get the votes for the deal we already made. Or don't - but there will be no extensions for this nonsense, so you crash out in weeks.

NIMAN

Love the big yellow bus driving up and down past Westminster, with BOLLOCKS TO BREXIT written on the side.

lawred2

Tell me how wrote: »

All of this is true. But, those same Brexiteers have manipulated the country in to this position.

While I think Brexit not happening would be best, the implication of not being seen to follow through on a democratic referendum result will have implications should it happen.

implications like these?

a devalued pound?
reduced living standards?
restrictions on movement?
barriers to trade?
lost economic growth?

LuckyLloyd

Akrasia wrote: »

Any chance you could email this list of questions to the Newstalk Producers of his show?

thehardshoulder@newstalk.com

In fact, maybe lots of people should email these questions or versions of them so we can have some chance that Farage will be given the welcome he so richly deserves

I think these are the better ones, in that they are easier for a talk show host to grasp and explain:

Is it true that you have been interviewed twice by Robert Mueller and are a subject (probable target) of his investigation?

Did you transfer data to/from Julian Assange via thumb drive as reported in US congressional testimony?

Did you illegally organise the use of Cambridge Analytica in Brexit?

Were you aware and part of the conspiracy between Cambridge Analytica and the Internet Research Agency (St Petersburg) to coordinate social media campaigns in Brexit and the 2016 US elections?

Were you involved in organising the transfer of up to £8m of laundered funding from Russia via AAron Banks to two Leave campaigns?

Did you concede defeat 52:48 for remain on referendum night knowing a poll told you the true result so that Crispin Odley and other backers of Brexit could make a fortune (he made £200m +) on the sharp rise and then absolute crash of sterling in the 2 hours after the result?

etc.? etc.?

Are you in fact an asset/agent for the Russian State?

Though I'd ****ing love it if someone had the balls to ask him the last question first. Just to see him squirm and deny it. The hit them with the rest of the questions until he walks from the interview (which he would if he had any sense).

Unfortunately we live in a world where very few professional journalists with any sort of platform in Ireland / The UK are attuned to this stuff and actively working on it. And no major news outlet wants to tackle it properly head on. So Farage is able to pop up and say what he says when the above items are out there and parts of them being actively investigated in the US. It's because of that reality that we have to endure this shambolic side show in Westminster this week.

Tell me how

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think these are the better ones, in that they are easier for a talk show host to grasp and explain:

Though I'd ****ing love it if someone had the balls to ask him the last question first. Just to see him squirm and deny it. The hit them with the rest of the questions until he walks from the interview (which he would if he had any sense).

Unfortunately we live in a world where very few professional journalists with any sort of platform in Ireland / The UK are attuned to this stuff and actively working on it. And no major news outlet wants to tackle it properly head on. So Farage is able to pop up and say what he says when the above items are out there and parts of them being actively investigated in the US. It's because of that reality that we have to endure this shambolic side show in Westminster this week.

Hopefully we will here Ivan say, "joining us on line 2 is Carole Cadwalladar"
It won't happen though.

Journalists/shows would quickly run out of guests if they challenged them all they it could be done. They simply would refuse to appear.

There is no point shows having just Steve Pound, David Lammy, Anna Soubry etc on unless they are countered by the other side.

What I would prefer to see is 1:1 debates from opposing sides rather than interviews with just one sides representative at a time.

Tell me how

lawred2 wrote: »

implications like these?

a devalued pound?
reduced living standards?
restrictions on movement?
barriers to trade?
lost economic growth?

I'm thinking more along the lines of the following;

More draconian steps to manipulate election/referendum outcomes.
Suggestions to ignore the rule of law because the government did not follow it.
Attempts to bypass government structures to achieve a desired/preferred society.

LuckyLloyd

Tell me how wrote: »

Hopefully we will here Ivan say, "joining us on line 2 is Carole Cadwalladar"
It won't happen though.

Journalists/shows would quickly run out of guests if they challenged them all they it could be done. They simply would refuse to appear.

There is no point shows having just Steve Pound, David Lammy, Anna Soubry etc on unless they are countered by the other side.

What I would prefer to see is 1:1 debates from opposing sides rather than interviews with just one sides representative at a time.

That should be the objective with Farage. There is no benefit to having someone like that offered a reputable platform where they are soft balled and given respect. Actually, to say there is 'no benefit' substantially misses the point. It is actively dangerous and damaging to the democratic process as we have seen.

A Dub in Glasgo

Berserker wrote: »

It won't. One of the main concerns that voters had in the last referendum was the position that an independent Scotland would have in the EU. If an 'IndyRef2' happens Scotland will have to apply for membership and serve their time. No chance that the Scots will vote for independence under those terms. A second referendum is a complete waste of money and time. I know people who votes Yes last time in that election and they won't be doing that again

It will. Remember this?

https://twitter.com/uk_together/status/506899714923843584?lang=en

There is no waiting list or timeframe for EU membership, there are conditions to be met

I know people who voted No last time and they will be voting Yes the next time

Tell me how

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

That should be the objective with Farage. There is no benefit to having someone like that offered a reputable platform where they are soft balled and given respect. Actually, to say there is 'no benefit' substantially misses the point. It is actively dangerous and damaging to the democratic process as we have seen.

Completely disagree. He has been an elected MEP for 20 years.

Echo chambers serve no purpose.

Berserker

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They will simply tell May No, go back to Westminster and get the votes for the deal we already made. Or don't - but there will be no extensions for this nonsense, so you crash out in weeks.

The EU is preparing for an extension period til July.

joe40

There are no good options in all of this, but the best would be a WA with the backstop.

However if that can't be delivered the option of a no -deal will be disastrous for Ireland by all accounts.

From a Pragmatic approach would it not be better to agree to a time limited backstop, say 5 years. The common consensus is that the backstop won't be necessary in event of FTA. I know it is conceding ground and I realise a time limited backstop isn't really a backstop, but if the alternative is "no deal" which will mean a border anyway why not concede this.

Maybe that's why I'm not a negotiator, but this does seem to be a high stakes game of chicken.

Akrasia

Here's an email I have just sent to thehardshoulder@newstalk.com

Dear Sir/Madam

I am very much looking forward to Ivan’s interview with Nigel Farage which is due to take place later today.

I know that Ivan prides himself on asking tough questions and getting to the substance beneath the story, so here are a short list of questions that I think are highly relevant to Mr Farage’s role in the ongoing Brexit crisis.

Did you concede defeat 52:48 for remain on referendum night knowing a poll told you the true result so that Crispin Odley and other backers of Brexit could make a fortune (he made £300m) on the sharp rise and then absolute crash of sterling in the 2 hours after the result?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/25/nigel-farage-denies-shorting-value-of-sterling-on-night-of-brexit-vote

Is it true that you have been interviewed twice by Robert Mueller and are a subject (probable target) of his investigation?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/13/nigel-farage-mueller-russia-investigation-trump-latest-jerome-corsi-claim

Did you transfer data to/from Julian Assange via thumb drive as reported in US congressional testimony?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/19/trump-russia-inquiry-is-told-nigel-farage-may-have-given-julian-assange-data

Did you illegally organise the use of Cambridge Analytica in Brexit?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/15/cambridge-analytica-illegal-foreign-donors-leave-eu-arron-banks

Were you aware and part of the conspiracy between Cambridge Analytica and the Internet Research Agency (St Petersburg) to coordinate social media campaigns in Brexit and the 2016 US elections?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/may/12/facebook-brexit-russia-unresolved-40-questions

Were you involved in organising the transfer of up to £8m of laundered funding from Russia via Aaron Banks to two Leave campaigns?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/nov/01/arron-banks-referred-to-agency-over-suspected-offences-in-brexit-campaign

I look forward to the show today and I hope Ivan is able to use this opportunity to ask the tough unanswered questions that Nigel Farage has thus far avoided and show the world that the Irish media are independent and hard hitting and hold powerful people to account as media is intended to do.

Best regards
(insert real name)

Thomas_IV

lawred2 wrote: »

why would Scotland be taking in people from Northern Ireland?

Ulster Scots they may identify as but they are not some nomadic tribe.

Some uber British flag waving types might struggle with a UI and see fit to relocate to Hull or Wigan but they'll be in the minority

It's not necessary to give too much thought on this theoretical Union between a post-Brexit (means post-UK) NI with Scotland. I was merely mentioning that cos some people were playing with this theory which will never happen.

Better concentrate on what the reality is about to bring in consequence of this meaningful vote in the Commons today when the WA is to be voted down. The DUP is voting it down anyway, Labour will vote it down cos Corbyn wants to have a snap GE and likes to win it in order to get into No 10 (which I hope he'll never get to), the SNP is most probably also to vote it down cos the deal gives NI more advantages and to Scotland disadvantages which is unacceptable to the Scottish govt.

Corbyn has all the way refused to support the Remain camp after BrexitRef 2016 (he was a very reluctant Remain campaigner anyway). He is following his own selfish political aims which is to become PM. The Remain camp could had been more stronger if it wasn't for him, but that's the way it is.

The DUP is - as usual - strongheaded ignoring the will of the majority of the People in NI which voted for Remain in the BrexitRef 2016, that as the world knows by now only for the sake of 'staying British'. SF is just waiting to see the UK breaking apart as a result of a hard Brexit which is to be expected. There is no such a Plan B for Brexit which could be submitted to the Commons within three days. Everybody knows that and it would be unworkable to even produce it in such a short time. This is all about to vote down the deal (which the EU still supports and the EP is to approve by vote) and to bring down the present UK govt. The DUP is acting deliberately against the will of the people of NI and they'll have a lot to answer for that cos they're also still blocking the resume of a functioning NI govt to this day.

Scotland and her govt, as well as the majority of the People there cannot accept a no-deal Brexit. Eventhough the saying goes that there isn't a majority in the UK Parliament for a no-deal Brexit either, this will be the ultimate consequence of voting down that deal cos there isn't a majority for a BrexitRef2 as well, this is also due to the refusal of Corbyn to back up such a Motion in the Commons. He is only interested in snap GE which he will lose because of his stance regarding Brexit. The grassroots of the Labour Party already urged him to back up a BrexitRef2 but he sees that one only as the ultima ratio when his plan fails to get into No 10. But as time is running out, even if the EU is willing to extent the Exit date by a couple of months, there is only one Option for the next weeks which is either to have a snap GE (more likely) or a BrexitRef2 instead (rather unlikely). A BrexitRef2 to take place after a snap GE is very uncertain as neither a new Tory led govt nor a Corbyn led govt would give it a go.

All this will make way for future developments that will certainly lead to the break up of the UK, one way or another when the reality of a no-deal Brexit kicks in. England will soon see to get rid of NI cos it will cost them too much and they will have enough of their own problems. When a majority in the Republic votes against a NI (as such a referendum has to take place according to the Irish constitution), but a majority in NI votes in favour of that, then there will be some big disappointment and a problem cos NI can't sustain itself. Maybe NI will end up depending on the Republic anyway, either as part of a UI or in some other ways outside of it. Which way it will finally go is hard to predict, but the backbone of the union of the UK is the union between England and Scotland. Once this is gone, it all falls apart.