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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Capt'n Midnight

Headshot wrote: »

What time is the vote tomorrow?

Late, there's a load of amendments to get through ranging from the absurd to the ridiculous depending on your viewpoint because all sides are trying to undermine May's position.

Backstop, divorce bill, rejecting NoDeal , public vote, take your pick.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46507010

The amendments vary in their potential impact on the proposed deal. Some seek to make relatively small tweaks, others to scupper Mrs May's plan entirely.

Amendments are suggested by MPs and the most important ones, in the eyes of the Commons Speaker, John Bercow, are selected for voting on by all MPs. The votes will be just before the overall "meaningful" vote on the prime minister's deal.

....
Labour MP Hilary Benn's amendment

Declines approval of the deal and "rejects" no deal
This amendment, from the chairman of the Commons Brexit committee has cross-party support, mainly from MPs campaigning for another EU referendum. Signatories include Conservative MPs Sarah Wollaston and Dominic Grieve, Sir Vince Cable, several SNP MPs and Labour's Yvette Cooper, Rachel Reeves and Meg Hillier
The broad support for this amendment means it is likely to be called by the Speaker

It's still a long drawn out car crash, and if even May's Deal gets through all the WA does is give time to discuss the trade deal. It's not endgame, it's just advancing to the next level, but you loose all the save points.

An Ciarraioch

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Out of interest, and I don't know the answer to this at all, what is the situation with Ireland and the Isle of Man with regard to passports and tariffs.

It and the Channel Islands are covered by the CTA:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area

A Dub in Glasgo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Wow! What a headline in the Irish Times:

No-deal Brexit would make a united Ireland more likely – May
'British prime minister asks MPs to take a second look at her Brexit deal'

May precipitating the break up of the EU now in the 11th hour. She really is cretinous, but music to the ears of republicans.

She also saying Scotland leaving 'our precious union' is more likely... she is a appealing to the unionist crowd (not just NI)

cml387

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I presume it and the Channel Islands are covered by the CTA.

Yes, travel to Fraggle Rock as well as Jersey and Gibraltar would qualify as CTA for Irish travellers.

Water John

May semms to be saying any ould s***e that might sway any voters depending which group she appealing to at any one time.

Bit cynical

lawred2 wrote: »

Curbing uncontrolled EU migration from the Eastern blocs was one of the core tenets of the brexit campaign...

How is that achievable with an open land border between the EU and the UK?

I think a lot of it will be reduced due to the removal of the automatic right to work for new EU citizens entering the UK. There will probably be a fairly liberal approach anyway to non-working visitors from the EU, but requirements placed on those seeking to work there (except from Ireland) so a porous border with the Republic is not as big an issue as one might imagine. Easier to take a job in, say, Germany than be an illegal worker in the UK. The bigger complaint is that low wage employers can no longer find the staff they wanted from Eastern Europe.

This is good for Ireland as we don't want a hard border either.

blanch152

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Out of interest, and I don't know the answer to this at all, what is the situation with Ireland and the Isle of Man with regard to passports and tariffs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_relations_of_the_Isle_of_Man#European_Union

Effectively, the Isle of Man is a vassal state of the EU, through the UK. The UK could opt for the same status.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Out of interest, and I don't know the answer to this at all, what is the situation with Ireland and the Isle of Man with regard to passports and tariffs.

The IoM is an associate member of the EU by virtue of the UK's membership. That will end post brexit. The CTA applies as far as I know.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Out of interest, and I don't know the answer to this at all, what is the situation with Ireland and the Isle of Man with regard to passports and tariffs.

Isle of Man is outside the EU but inside the CTA so travel isn't an issue.

But like Gibraltar and the Channel islands any rights inherited from the EU-UK relationship would be lost when the UK looses them.

However, the Isle of Man has EU Data Adequacy, something that's not certain for the UK if there's a Hard Brexit.

Leroy42

Did anyone see C4 news tonight? There was an interview with some EU delegate and after repeatedly asking her why the EU wouldn't simply give the UK what it wanted, the interviewer asked about an extension to Art 50.

Her reaction was priceless. She visibly threw her eyes to heaven and it was obvious just exasperated she was with even being asked. Before she went on to state that an extension was pointless as the UK are too busy fighting amongst themselves to agree to anything.

If she represents the thinking in the EU, then the UK have run out of road

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

Did anyone see C4 news tonight? There was an interview with some EU delegate and after repeatedly asking her why the EU wouldn't simply give the UK what it wanted, the interviewer asked about an extension to Art 50.

Her reaction was priceless. She visibly threw her eyes to heaven and it was obvious just exasperated she was with even being asked. Before she went on to state that an extension was pointless as the UK are too busy fighting amongst themselves to agree to anything.

If she represents the thinking in the EU, then the UK have run out of road

Wasn't Sabine Weyand by any chance?

J Mysterio

Id say there is no doubt they have run out of road. We here have been continuously amazed and bemused for 2.5 years. The EU is a serious orgainisation which is trying to maintain the union and cooperation of 27 states in a dog eat dog world. The letters were the last ask that will be given, the UK need to decide now.

Water John

I'd say she's on BBC 2 Newnight as well now, not taking any bull**** and calling it straight, totally exasperated.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Did anyone see C4 news tonight? There was an interview with some EU delegate and after repeatedly asking her why the EU wouldn't simply give the UK what it wanted, the interviewer asked about an extension to Art 50.

Her reaction was priceless. She visibly threw her eyes to heaven and it was obvious just exasperated she was with even being asked. Before she went on to state that an extension was pointless as the UK are too busy fighting amongst themselves to agree to anything.

If she represents the thinking in the EU, then the UK have run out of road

Too afraid to leave. A parliament paralysed. A PM begging for scraps from the EU and begging her own party to support her.
A once mighty nation reduced to this. And tomorrow it gets worse.

Capt'n Midnight

Berserker wrote: »

Show me where the UK has said that they want a hard border on the island? Your Irish republican bias is trying to generate a situation that simply doesn't exist.

Show me where the UK has done anything to ensure there is no hard border
- like accepting continued membership of the customs union
- like plausible eborder technology
- like accepting some goods checks in the ports in NI and/or GB
- like not "giving" a "veto" to the DUP
- like clamping down on UK importers sending fake Chinese goods to the EU

So far it's just lip service and shameless attempts to wiggle out of promises. And this will be thrown back in the UK's face when trying to do trade deals so it will cost an absolute bloody fortune in the long run. .

Headshot

So shall we have a competition?

let's see who get's to the nearest number for defeat of May's bill.

I will say May will lose the vote on her Brexit deal by 216 votes

Mezcita

Headshot wrote: »

So shall we have a competition?

let's see who get's to the nearest number for defeat of May's bill.

I will say May will lose the vote on her Brexit deal by 216 votes

Lose by 120 votes.

Leroy42

Yes that's it. 31.25 in. I burst out laughing watching it.

J Mysterio

The May deal is actually a wonderful deal when you consider that the whole of the UK get big concessions with the backstop, never mind the huge benefit to NI.

Those politicians are too pig headed to see that. Not sure the pluses have been well enough elucidated by May, though she made a token effort today.

A Dub in Glasgo

funkey_monkey wrote: »

No, it was Sophie in ‘t Veld

(Go to 27:40):

Surprised Channel 4 newscaster went with that line of questioning

Paraphrasing 'The EU has hung May out to dry.... Here is the agreement that has been negotiated by the EU and UK for over 2 years, why can't you just remove the backstop to satisfy Tory Brexiteers'

FFS

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes that's it. 31.25 in. I burst out laughing watching it.

She was getting fairly exasperated alright but was more than able to handle his accusatory line of questioning.

lawred2

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Surprised Channel 4 newscaster went with that line of questioning

Paraphrasing 'The EU has hung May out to dry.... Here is the agreement that has been negotiated by the EU and UK for over 2 years, why can't you just remove the backstop to satisfy Tory Brexiteers'

FFS

Have to say I was a little taken aback by that line... Seems like C4 (Jon Snow aside) has been drinking the Brexit kool-aid of late..

Abandon all hope really

Capt'n Midnight

Headshot wrote: »

So shall we have a competition?

let's see who get's to the nearest number for defeat of May's bill.

I will say May will lose the vote on her Brexit deal by 216 votes

from Slugger
https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/01/07/parliamentary-arithmetic-moving-against-a-no-deal-brexit/

Breakdown
https://sluggerotoole.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Westminster-Factions-2.png

The big question is how many MP's will try to get No-Deal blocked.
I think that may get close to or even more votes than May's Deal.

Today's resignation
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46856149

Assistant whip Gareth Johnson has become the latest member of the government to quit his job over the deal, saying in his resignation letter to the PM that it would be "detrimental to our nation's interests".

He added: "The time has come to place my loyalty to my country above my loyalty to the government."

prawnsambo

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Surprised Channel 4 newscaster went with that line of questioning

Paraphrasing 'The EU has hung May out to dry.... Here is the agreement that has been negotiated by the EU and UK for over 2 years, why can't you just remove the backstop to satisfy Tory Brexiteers'

FFS

What's even more frustrating is listening to a Dutch MEP with a far better grasp on the situation than just about anyone in the British establishment. It is completely nuts. Pick any of them and you'd have the intellectual equivalent in comparison of Baldric with the pencils up his nose.

Hurrache

These are the numbers Faisal Islam has at the moment.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1084951860233101312?s=19

branie2

SNIP. No more silly comments please.

[Deleted User]

funkey_monkey wrote: »

No, it was Sophie in ‘t Veld

(Go to 27:40):

The guy questioning her is beyond dim, its just worrying.

Folkstonian

Leroy42 wrote: »

Did anyone see C4 news tonight? Therme was an interview with some EU delegate and after repeatedly asking her why the EU wouldn't simply give the UK what it wanted, the interviewer asked about an extension to Art 50.

Her reaction was priceless. She visibly threw her eyes to heaven and it was obvious just exasperated she was with even being asked. Before she went on to state that an extension was pointless as the UK are too busy fighting amongst themselves to agree to anything.

If she represents the thinking in the EU, then the UK have run out of road

You realise, I presume, that channel 4 news are extremely pro-remain, and they ask these absurd leading questions to set up metaphorical half-volleys for EU officials to express views about Brexit and British politics that fit very nicely with their editorial position?

Tell me how

funkey_monkey wrote: »

No, it was Sophie in ‘t Veld

EU should have put her up front earlier. Half the UK would have thought she was from Yorkshire.

FrancieBrady

Folkstonian wrote: »

You realise, I presume, that channel 4 news are extremely pro-remain, and they ask these absurd leading questions to set up metaphorical half-volleys for EU officials to express views about Brexit and British politics that fit very nicely with their editorial position?

He was just echoing Brexiteers and getting straight and clear answers. Are Brexiteers not looking for the backstop to be watered down/written out of the agreement? Has an extension to Art 50 not been mentioned as an alternative?