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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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prawnsambo

jmayo wrote: »

We knew a fair bit about the outside world before IDA started pimping us.
And a fair bit of that foreign direct investment was due to links to Ireland from Irish descendants.

Well since the IDA was in existence from before I was born, I'll bow to your venerable self.

jmayo wrote: »

Funny you mention the N11/M11, it may have come in early because it was given years to complete.
How long did it take to link Wicklow and Arklow bypasses again ?
They are still working on it as the Enniscorthy bypass is now just happening.

You're confusing tender to completion time with planning/routing/appeals/tender to completion time. You are being a bit disingenuous here. The construction of the Ashford/Wicklow bypass was done well under time and budget for example. And afaik, once the go-ahead was given, the Arklow bypass was finished in time too.

jmayo wrote: »

And as for future proofing, they are about to tear up Kilmacanogue again because they made a mare of it first time round.
That will add nicely to the morning Northbound and afternoon/evening Southbound.

It's a small service road that's being added there. At a cost of €2.5 million. And it's only southbound.

Keatsian

robinph wrote: »

Good option for UK students to study in Ireland, get most of their residency requirements out of the way and then the option of working anywhere is available to them again.

It won’t be such a good option if they are charged non-EEA fees

EdgeCase

Keatsian wrote: »

It won’t be such a good option if they are charged non-EEA fees

That would likely be enforced although the counter point to that is that a lot of Irish students also will lose low cost access to UK universities too. Although we do have the entire continent available to us.

Berserker

J Mysterio wrote: »

My thinking is that Britain in a post No Deal Brexit will be in a world of hurt, and so people may well look to pop over here. My understanding is that British citizens are entitled to come here and also claim benefits under the CTA.

Would Ireland not suffer significant damage in the event of a no deal Brexit also?

Enzokk

intellectual dosser wrote: »

If I recall correctly she technically said she wouldn't contest the next election but insinuated that was if this government went the full term, not a snap election. Then again if there's an election over the coming weeks its hard to see the Tories let her lead them into it....they'd figure a way to oust her.

I don't know how they could actually get her to leave though if there is an General Election before December as they have tried to remove her once and cannot do so for another year. She is at the top of her party for a year whether there is an election or not and even if there is one after December they will have to remove her kicking and screaming in all likelihood, she has told everyone she is a bloody difficult woman and ironically it is the UK that is finding this out to their detriment right now instead of the EU.

jmayo wrote: »

Actually this is a great chance for us to get back on top over the Scots.
The Scottish industry is worth a few billion whereas our whiskey is only in the hundreds of millions.

BTW did anyone hear Morning Ireland this morning where they mentioned having to develop facilities in Rosslare the size of Croke Park to deal with hard Brexit.

They plan to start in few days or maybe weeks.
Yep, they are going to start doing something a few months before D day.

And this is in the country famous for delivering infrastructure projects on time, to scale, within budget and to meet future requirements. :rolleyes:

Oh and they plan on hiring hundreds of staff but it's alright they had 3,000 applicants.
Sure they can interview them and then train them in a few days.

We shouldn't laugh too hard at the Brits.

I think all parties are careful not to start or advertise their no-deal preparations to the world as once they do that it will grease the wheels and set it in motion that will make it happen. We know both sides do not want a no-deal so they will be doing everything they can to avoid making it happen, even if that means having very little preparations for it.

I did not see Theresa May doing her speech but it seems like she changed the wording on what they sent out earlier. Instead of saying that nobody opposed the previous referendum results even when the margin was even smaller she alluded to the fact that Parliament has never stood against a referendum result.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1084795224621121538

She still has no leg to stand on in trying to get the deal through. Even if she whips all her MPs to vote for it with the DUP against it and Labour, as her past actions has shown they don't have to support the result, she still loses the vote.

EdgeCase

Just to clarify something from further up the thread. The IDA has been around since 1949. It's almost impossible to describe any post war Irish economic policy or activity without referencing it in some way.

It's probably the oldest organisation if it's type in existence and has been a template for many other countries' counterpart agencies.

Before that era, post independence Ireland was very bad at attracting inward investment and had gone gone a very short sighted route of isolationism and self sufficiency which was compounded by WWII.

We'd actually driven out companies like Guinness because of things like banning foreign shareholders from owning Irish companies and had all sorts of extremely damaging business licencing rules that played a big part in undermining economic development.

Actually some of the Brexiteers should take a look at 1930s Ireland for an idea of where a policy of economic isolationism and politically driven ideologies of absolute self-sufficiency gets you.

It really wasn't until the T.K. Whitaker era that modern Ireland started to emerge. It took decades to get to where we are now, but that's where it started.

So to say that Ireland had great trade links before the IDA era is just not fact at all.

Ireland's success was all about turning from reactionary nationalism after independence into a country that began to embrace multilateralism, gain confidence as an independent nation and take a steps onto the world stage through the 60, 70, 80s and up to the present day.

It's the opposite story to Brexit.

murphaph

robinph wrote: »

They stay in Ireland for 5 years(?) and then get themselves an Irish passport, then they can head off to the rest of the EU as full EU citizens again. Good option for UK students to study in Ireland, get most of their residency requirements out of the way and then the option of working anywhere is available to them again.

Does time studying count? I know it doesn't in Germany, for example.

J Mysterio

Berserker wrote: »

Would Ireland not suffer significant damage in the event of a no deal Brexit also?

Undoubtedly, but it would be shorter term as we realign to the new reality, you would expect.

We would be the only English speaking country in the EU. Still the first stopping point from the Atlantic and still an attractive base for big multinationals etc.

So, we will suffer yes, but I expect we would recover much sooner than No Deal Britain.

Itssoeasy

Nigel Dodds on sky news said that the Irish government have said that come March 29th there won't be a hard border on the island of Ireland. When did the government say this ?

listermint

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Nigel Dodds on sky news said that the Irish government have said that come March 29th there won't be a hard border on the island of Ireland. When did the government say this ?

They didnt, its Nigel Dodds.

First Up

Berserker wrote:

Would Ireland not suffer significant damage in the event of a no deal Brexit also?

The ESRI forecast growth would be slower but not a disaster.

john9876

I can't believe Nigel would lie?

Itssoeasy

listermint wrote: »

They didnt, its Nigel Dodds.

Yeah I just heard him say it and wanted to be sure I hadn't missed something.

10000maniacs

J Mysterio wrote: »

My thinking is that Britain in a post No Deal Brexit will be in a world of hurt, and so people may well look to pop over here. My understanding is that British citizens are entitled to come here and also claim benefits under the CTA.

It's just a thought as to one of the possible outcomes of No Deal and how it might affect us.

A lot of the remainers will try anyway. And I would welcome them.. Any time I hear remainers from the general public interviewed on TV, they always seem to have a decent, pragmatic & honest vibe about themselves. However the Brexiters.. different story.

And they always have the line that they have nothing against foreigners, The Irish, the French, and Germans when their face tells another story.

seamus

murphaph wrote: »

Does time studying count? I know it doesn't in Germany, for example.

Generally no, but it depends on what type of Visa you have;
http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/registration-stamps

Some study visas (e.g. trainee accountant) can be used for citizenship, but a general study visa can't.

Itssoeasy

Is it a case of trying to limit the size of the defeat for Theresa may tomorrow ? I've seen nobody say it has even a hope of the HOC agreeing to the deal, so it's a case of damage limitation.

Itssoeasy

Theresa may statement to the House of Commons at 4:15pm so twenty minutes time.

EdgeCase

seamus wrote: »

Generally no, but it depends on what type of Visa you have;
http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/registration-stamps

Some study visas (e.g. trainee accountant) can be used for citizenship, but a general study visa can't.

There's a big difference here for British nationals or Irish nationals in the UK. In both cases you're deemed to be permanently resident by simply being here. There's no process involved nor would there be any requirement for UK nationals to hold visas or residency permits.

So basically, if a UK student moved here and made their main residence here and paid non EEA fees. They would be entitled to apply for citizenship after 5 years of residency.

It's not all that complicated unless the CTA ended.

The complications would be around non eligibility for EU/EEA fees, pensions & welfare rights etc could be potentially an issue too.

Berserker

robinph wrote: »

They stay in Ireland for 5 years(?) and then get themselves an Irish passport, then they can head off to the rest of the EU as full EU citizens again. Good option for UK students to study in Ireland, get most of their residency requirements out of the way and then the option of working anywhere is available to them again.

You can't get one that way, with a small number of exceptions. I know a few medical students who studied here for longer than that and they couldn't get one on those grounds.

GM228

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1084828400227938309?s=19

"No food, no channel tunnel"

I would say definately put there on purpose.

Leroy42

Good opinion piece, IMO, in the Guardian basically saying that any MP that votes down the deal is lying to the electorate.

This is the deal they have been offered, the EU have said that this is nothing more they can do. So this, regardless of what may or may not have been promised or hoped for, is the outcome of the negotiations. This is what Brexit looks like.

So MPs either vote for this or accept No Deal. There is nothing else on the table. To claim that they simply remain, when there is no democratic legitimacy for that, is beyond ridiculous.

MP's still seem to be living in a dream land where the full extend of Brexit never needs to be faced. They had their chance to argue for remain during the Ref and failed to do so, and the people decided to leave. It would seem that even if you take it that people didn't understand the full implications of that decision, that TM's deal is therefore the best option to take.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/14/mps-voters-may-brexit-deal-tuesday-vote

Russman

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There was nothing the EU could actually deliver that they would have been happy with. They are fully irrelevant at this stage. They'll vote on whatever moves the needle to No Deal and reject anything else. Grand.

Just reading some of the tweets in the Beth Rigby link you posted - I really can't understand where some of the paranoia of Dodds etc is coming from. There was one which mentioned the EU "having the UK where it wanted them then" - must everything come down to a conflict with these people ? do they not realise the EU is probably bored with it at this stage ?

What motivation have the EU got to make the backstop kick in ? I can't see any tbh. The only way I can see it happening is that when the FTA is actually being negotiated, the UK are looking for terms that are so off the wall that the EU simply can't/won't agree to. I suppose in fairness, that's likely to be the case anyway.

mrbrianj

Will the CTA be workable after Brexit? I know its older than the EU - but its the first time one side was in the EU and the others not - surely a game changer...

Tell me how

GM228 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1084828400227938309?s=19

"No food, no channel tunnel"

I would safe definately put there on purpose.

That is literally the plot of a The thick of it episode/series arc.
Season 4, 2012.

It should be embarrassing to those involved that they either let this happen, or planned it to happen. Amateurish.

Itssoeasy

So the attorney general of the UK said in a letter that the letter from tusk and junker has legal standing.

intellectual dosser

Russman wrote: »

Just reading some of the tweets in the Beth Rigby link you posted - I really can't understand where some of the paranoia of Dodds etc is coming from. There was one which mentioned the EU "having the UK where it wanted them then" - must everything come down to a conflict with these people ? do they not realise the EU is probably bored with it at this stage ?

What motivation have the EU got to make the backstop kick in ? I can't see any tbh. The only way I can see it happening is that when the FTA is actually being negotiated, the UK are looking for terms that are so off the wall that the EU simply can't/won't agree to. I suppose in fairness, that's likely to be the case anyway.

I'd love an answer to this question.

The UK voted to leave the European Union. Lets find an agreement that respects that decision and provides a platform for further disentanglement and a trade agreemen, while maintaining the integrity of the EU.

NO! with the EU reaching unison among member states over its position after two years of negotations, people in the UK think the EU are doing one over on them. Some of them not only want Brexit but they want the EU to fall apart as a result.

Seth Brundle

Listening to TM's speech now, she's not saying anything new. It's all the same old guff.

J Mysterio

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Listening to TM's speech now, she's not saying anything new. It's all the same old guff.

Parliament listening very closely though. Very little heckling etc. Seems they are taking it seriously for once.

Edit:

Theres the heckling! The moment she says: 'when the history books are written... did we deliver'.

Itssoeasy

She's trying at least. I mean it probably means sweet FA in terms of the vote tomorrow.

Christy42

Should they eventually have a session where one option has to be agreed on? No deal, remain or May's deal?

Have it in a few days and not leave until one option has a majority? Force them to make a decision instead of a potential sleep walk towards no deal and I can remain getting voted down as well.