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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Infini

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

A large number of Brits are quite happy to leave under WTO as long as it really means leave.

In all honesty a fair lot of them are seriously ignorant of the inner workings of their own country yet alone the EU. They say they're happy but Im pretty sure they have no idea of HOW drastic such a change will affect them until its too late. Others are too proud to admit they made the wrong decision or refuse to reconsider beliving theyre right even when facts say otherwise its the kind of folly that comes back to bite hard.

Bit cynical

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Saying the same thing 4 times in an hour doesn't make it true.
Irelands primary wish would be that Brexit is rescinded. The deal being accepted would end this hope.

Your hope possibly, but can you provide evidence that that the Irish Government is pursuing that as a policy?

Seth Brundle

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the info is not coming from Brian Connolly in Brussels, then it is probably fake.

He has been on the button all the time, while the Telegraph, Express, DM, etc are all fantasy land stuff.

Tony Connolly?

EdgeCase

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Tony Connolly?

I would tend to wait for Tony Connolly to confirm rumors before I believe them as I don't think the UK media has particularly good connections in Brussels and there's been a few incidents of overenthusiastic reporting of things that subsequently turned out to be just rumors.

CelticRambler

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

A large number of Brits are quite happy to leave under WTO as long as it really means leave.

Indeed they did, and it looks like they may get their wish.

Akrasia wrote: »

If it's just a request to extend the deadline so May can keep putting the same deal to a parliament that is obviously opposed to it, then that is a non starter other than it might give EU states an extra few months to batten down No Deal contingency arrangements.

The deal was put to parliament in December, and effectively failed to pass a vote. The same deal is about to be put to parliament in a few days, and looks like it will fail again. To paraphrase the old saying, it would be insane to think that it would pass if put yet again to a vote in February and March and April and May and June ...

Seeing as TM has said, in the past, that no deal is better than a bad deal - and parliament is about to deem the current WA "a bad deal"; and as she's reported today (although the Guardian article I read this morning appears to have evaporated

) to believe that "no Brexit" would be democratically catastrophic, it looks like the only possible plan B now is a no-deal, chaotic Brexit.

Sam Russell

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Tony Connolly?

Of course - sorry had a Dobbo moment.

Water John

The clear majority of HoC see a No Deal Brexit as cathastrophic and would see it as irresponsible to let it happen.

Akrasia

CelticRambler wrote: »

Indeed they did, and it looks like they may get their wish.

The deal was put to parliament in December, and effectively failed to pass a vote. The same deal is about to be put to parliament in a few days, and looks like it will fail again. To paraphrase the old saying, it would be insane to think that it would pass if put yet again to a vote in February and March and April and May and June ...

Seeing as TM has said, in the past, that no deal is better than a bad deal - and parliament is about to deem the current WA "a bad deal"; and as she's reported today (although the Guardian article I read this morning appears to have evaporated ) to believe that "no Brexit" would be democratically catastrophic, it looks like the only possible plan B now is a no-deal, chaotic Brexit.

'Democratically catastrophic' is when you have hostile foreign organisations/governments illegally funding and supplying services using hacked social media account data to the Brexit campaign because they want to destabilise the EU and and western democracy in general, and that campaign being so successful that it resulted in the UK voting to put sanctions on itself and it's parliament becoming crippled for years by constant bickering about what 'the will of the people' means and what kind of brexit 'the people' actually want.

A 2nd referendum asking the public to clarify what they actually wanted in the first vote is not 'democratically catastrophic'

Theresa May is a clown who is doing generational harm to her country and Putin must be laughing his head off every night watching this play out before him

Sam Russell

During the transition period in the WA, does the EU funding continue for CAP Common fisheries policy, and regional funding?

Could the EU agree to extend Art 50, but that the UK do not have voting rights for the EU Parliament - unless and until .... ?

Bit cynical

Sam Russell wrote: »

Could the EU agree to extend Art 50, but that the UK do not have voting rights for the EU Parliament - unless and until .... ?

I think under such a scheme, the UK would no longer be members of the EU. Brexit would then have occurred. It could be considered a de-facto transition period.

Strazdas

Infini wrote: »

Pretty much this. Regardless of the political fallout in the UK the truth is they cant leave without their whole country disintegrating around them as the various political forces repelling one another shatter things around them.

If they don't want to accept the WA that's fine but unless they want to drive themselves off a cliff the ONLY rational option is simply to admit Brexit simply cannot be delivered without causing untold harm to their country, that all the promises the leave campaign made were outright lies and that the only thing that is less damaging to their country is by remaining.

After that they seriously need to look at getting their own house in order, people having opinions is fine but if they cant back their policies up with verifiable FACTS not ficticious shíte and have no interest in bettering their own people then they have no business making decisions for their country.

It's a step too far. The UK is a country in denial. They cannot admit Brexit is an absolute disaster and that the 17m voters messed up in spectacular fashion. All of the jumping through hoops and constitutional crisis is because nobody can tell the 17m the thing they voted for was based on a pack of lies and undeliverable (such home truths would risk riots on the streets apparently).

cml387

The EU are trying not to be the bad guys here. If an extension is requested it will probably be given, under certain conditions.

branie2

cml387 wrote: »

The EU are trying not to be the bad guys here. If an extension is requested it will probably be given, under certain conditions.

Such as?

ancapailldorcha

branie2 wrote: »

Such as?

If it helps to cancel Brexit. Can't see them doing it for any other reason unless the UK wishes to change the WA to opt into more EU bodies.

Anthracite

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

A large number of Brits are quite happy to leave under WTO as long as it really means leave.

A large number of Brits think this will allow their economy to boom. They are in for a surprise.

Strazdas

branie2 wrote: »

Such as?

The UK would have to be on the verge of a big breakthrough such as a second referendum with Remain as an option.

It won't be for a general election anyway as everyone seems to think if that is going to happen, it will happen in February or March.

CelticRambler

Water John wrote: »

The clear majority of HoC see a No Deal Brexit as cathastrophic and would see it as irresponsible to let it happen.

Yes, but there is no majority in the HoC for a (realistic) alternative to the proposed WA that would justify the EU granting an extension. The way things are at the moment, even a General Election wouldn't change anything - it would only return a divided Tory party and a divided Labour party as the major players in Westminster, neither of which has published any kind of proposal with the express intention of seeking cross-party support.

Were I sitting at any EU member's table, other than that of Ireland, I'd be saying "let them get on with it; we'll make our contingency arrangements as and when the need arises". It'd be the irony-of-ironies to see the EU cherry-pick which elements of the old EU-UK it chose to shore up. :rolleyes:

CelticRambler

Akrasia wrote: »

'Democratically catastrophic' is when you have hostile foreign organisations/governments illegally funding and supplying services using hacked social media account data to the Brexit campaign because they want to destabilise the EU and and western democracy in general, and that campaign being so successful that it resulted in the UK voting to put sanctions on itself and it's parliament becoming crippled for years by constant bickering about what 'the will of the people' means and what kind of brexit 'the people' actually want.

A 2nd referendum asking the public to clarify what they actually wanted in the first vote is not 'democratically catastrophic'

You know that, I know that, most of the rest of the EU know that ... but the real democratic catastrophe is the number of Remain voters who are saying "just get on with it" despite the undoubted interference in the referendum process and the obvious amateurishness of the simplistic "in/out" question when there was no coherent alternative to the status quo for which to vote.

murphaph

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

A large number of Brits are quite happy to leave under WTO as long as it really means leave.

They think they are but when the reality of WTO bare bones trade hits the UK they will realise their mistake. 80s per lorry at Dover means an unrecoverable traffic jam in the south east of England. That's what UCL says

Capt'n Midnight

EdgeCase wrote: »

She's constrained by the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

There's a banana skin placed at every turn.

That's not a problem , Labour will happily support her in a vote for a General Election.

But Labour would rather a GE after Brexit has been shown to be a Tory disaster. Still wishful thinking because they haven't shown themselves to be a sensible alternative.

First Up

Bit cynical wrote:

Timing somewhat unfortunate from Ireland's perspective.

Why so?

Dyr

Ireland's favorite former Taoiseach telling the British press what they want to hear, hard border no threat to the Union. Worth noting he refers to the GFA as the "Belfast Agreement". You'd think he'd have learned to keep his mouth shut on this topic given his disastrous stewardship of the peace process

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1071122/Brexit-news-John-Bruton-Northern-Ireland-UK-EU-withdrawal-deal-backstop-Theresa-May-latest

10000maniacs

Anthracite wrote: »

A large number of Brits think this will allow their economy to boom. They are in for a surprise.

The problem is there is nobody in UK government with the skills to negotiate WTO trade deals that will be better or even close to what they have currently in the EU.
Those trade deals have been an ongoing 45 year old project that gradually evolved with razor sharp precision and the UK will find it impossible to emulate them.
Remember that they start with no trade deals on the 29th of March.

Strazdas

CelticRambler wrote: »

You know that, I know that, most of the rest of the EU know that ... but the real democratic catastrophe is the number of Remain voters who are saying "just get on with it" despite the undoubted interference in the referendum process and the obvious amateurishness of the simplistic "in/out" question when there was no coherent alternative to the status quo for which to vote.

I attribute this to the British education system and lack of knowledge of politics in general. Even Remain voters don't seem to know how their parliamentary system works or what the role of UK referenda are. They think if they are on the losing side in a referendum, they must accept the result and accept implementation of the result, no matter what. They don't seem to be aware it is their democratic right to oppose the result and to call for the referendum not to be implemented.

The whole country seems to be in a mess : politicians, the media and the public. Perhaps this fiasco was always going to happen at some point. A political basket case of a country that was trundling along and giving the outward appearance of being a normal, functioning democracy just like any other. The fact that it cannot handle Brexit and doesn't know how to extricate itself is extremely revealing.

A Dub in Glasgo

Bit cynical wrote: »

Where did I say that she made new laws?

You didn't, you also failed to explain this ---> 'Gina Miller has made this more difficult'

10000maniacs

Bambi wrote: »

Ireland's favorite former Taoiseach telling the British press what they want to hear, hard border no threat to the Union. Worth noting he refers to the GFA as the "Belfast Agreement". You'd think he'd have learned to keep his mouth shut on this topic given his disastrous stewardship of the peace process

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1071122/Brexit-news-John-Bruton-Northern-Ireland-UK-EU-withdrawal-deal-backstop-Theresa-May-latest

Bruton is not 100 miles from the Conor Cruise O'Brien ethos of what it is to be Irish in my opinion.

A Dub in Glasgo

Bambi wrote: »

Ireland's favorite former Taoiseach telling the British press what they want to hear

I had a feeling this would be Bruton before I even clicked the link

An Ciarraioch

Strangely, just yesterday, he did an interview with the BBC insisting on the importance of the backstop, so different media emphasising the opinions that best concur with their perspectives:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46850373

WomanSkirtFan8

Anthracite wrote: »

A large number of Brits think this will allow their economy to boom. They are in for a surprise.

Indeed and an extremely nasty one at that.

cml387

I heard John Bruton on Radio 4 on Saturday.
He said nothing that isn't the the truth about the backstop.