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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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black forest

There seems to be still a little bit of confusion what can be prolonged and what needs or can be done. May be the following is helping.

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1084084399287746560?s=21

Water John

If she loses by a lot 80/100 votes, her position is untenable. She will have lost her power within Govn't and all the pretenders will be gathering. The grey suits will let her know the game is up.
Just because the Tories have no unifying figure to take over leadership doesn't give TM a blank cheque. Considering her performance as a Minister she should never have been made a PM.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

If she loses by a lot 80/100 votes, her position is untenable. She will have lost her power within Govn't and all the pretenders will be gathering. The grey suits will let her know the game is up.
Just because the Tories have no unifying figure to take over leadership doesn't give TM a blank cheque. Considering her performance as a Minister she should never have been made a PM.

She will lose by much more than this IMO. An 80/100 defeat would be modest given how badly things are going.

igCorcaigh

Leroy42 wrote: »

Exactly this. The UK seem to still believe that everything and everybody is simply waiting for them. Whilst Brexit is of course massive to Ireland, to the likes of Malta, Portugal etc etc, it really is not important in the overall scheme of things.

PM's of other countries (Macron for example) have far bigger problems that Brexit to worry about and the EU itself has some some pretty big problems (Trump, Italy etc).

I really don't see any reason why they would bother extending A50 as this would set a dangerous precedent for other countries. If they extend it now, why not for another time, and another. And what about payments, and elections and budgets and decisions (further investment in Galileo for example). And what about awarded contracts, will the UK be allowed win them during an extension?

It is a mess, complicated and costly and I see no advantage to it. The UK have shown throughout this process that only impending deadlines gives them any sort or reason to make a decision. Even the latest example, TM simply cancelling the vote before Xmas, all because she could.

I think A50 can only be extended once?

LeinsterDub

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I think A50 can only be extended once?

It can be extended as often as the EU 27 agree to it.

Water John

If she loses by a lot, her moral authority is gone, but then it should have been gone long ago. Remember Chequers the Deal, one that lost a couple of Ministers, dropped within a week.

LeinsterDub

Water John wrote: »

If she loses by a lot, her moral authority is gone, but then it should have been gone long ago. Remember Chequers the Deal, one that lost a couple of Ministers, dropped within a week.

The numerous lost votes, the government been found in contempt of parliament, pulling the plug on the vote. Her moral authority is long since gone.

tuxy

Water John wrote: »

She will have lost her power within Govn't and all the pretenders will be gathering. The grey suits will let her know the game is up.

I didn't realise the 1922 committee could do that without a vote of no confidence. How exactly do they force her to step down?

LeinsterDub

tuxy wrote: »

I didn't realise the 1922 committee could do that without a vote of no confidence. How exactly do they force her to step down?

She can't be forced to quit as Tory leader now. The opposition could vote no confidence in the government and force a general election but she in theory could lead the Tories in to the election and would still be PM until election night.

tuxy

LeinsterDub wrote: »

She can't be forced to quit as Tory leader now. The opposition could vote no confidence in the government and force a general election but she in theory could lead the Tories in to the election and would still be PM until election night.

That was my understanding too but Water John seems to have some inside information on the workings of the Tory party.

Water John

Backroom manouverings are a key part of Tory politics. When they go to wield the knife, no better crowd. It's done swiftly. If it's in the best interests of the party (not the country) she'll be gone. Her only reason for being there is no alternative may no longer be able to hold the Tory Party together.

Headshot

I'm going to get the popcorn ready for Tuesday night, it's absolutely going to be fascinating tv and when May's deal is rejected labour will put in a vote of no confidence in the government and boy it's going to riveting tv

Leroy42

On the need for TM to state Plan B within 3 days, what is she actually required to do and what is the consequences if she doesn't?

Water John

Don't think any PM would defy an instruction of Parliament. UK strange place without a written Constitution. Not sure what power Bercow has, but the Courts have ruled(Gina Millar), that Parliament not the Cabinet is Sovereign, the primacy of power.

Strazdas

Headshot wrote: »

I'm going to get the popcorn ready for Tuesday night, it's absolutely going to be fascinating tv and when May's deal is rejected labour will put in a vote of no confidence in the government and boy it's going to riveting tv

Expect the pound to plunge that night immediately after the vote.

murphaph

Strazdas wrote: »

Expect the pound to plunge that night immediately after the vote.

I'm not sure. Her defeat is expected so one would assume the markets have priced this in at least. The markets still believe something can be salvaged, probably because no deal is so unthinkable because the markets are made up of people and most of those would understand how damaging no deal would be.

May has said her self on several occasions now that voting against her deal may mean no Brexit at all. I'm starting to think she may offer parliament the vote on withdrawing A50 or no deal after her deal is rejected. She can then say parliament made the decision against her better judgement.

If revoking A50 was simply out of the question to her she would never have mentioned the possibility of no Brexit in recent days. She gets another while in number 10 this way and that's her prime motivator. I suspect she knows that the chaos of no deal would bring down her government in weeks.

Capt'n Midnight

LeinsterDub wrote: »

It can be extended as often as the EU 27 agree to it.

More like the EU 37 when you remember how CETA was delayed by Wallonia.

And expect the Swiss , Norwegians and Turks to make noises too.

Unless the UK has something to offer it would just can kicking for the benefit of May staying in No 10 for a little longer.

Even the threat of a GE / Corbyn isn't a threat because he's less likely to go full Hard Brexit than the Tories.

Folkstonian

Headshot wrote: »

I'm going to get the popcorn ready for Tuesday night, it's absolutely going to be fascinating tv and when May's deal is rejected labour will put in a vote of no confidence in the government and boy it's going to riveting tv

I can’t see what a vote of no confidence will achieve.

There’s no way with labour being a hard left party run by Marxists that any Tory MP, even the likes of Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry, will ever vote with the opposition.

Nor is there any chance that the DUP will vote in any way to risk Corbyn and McDonnell, for obvious reasons, getting the keys to numbers 10 and 11 respectively.

I think May has known this all along, and she’s called the DUP’s bluff countless times already. They will vent in the media but they will never bring down the government if it puts someone with Corbyn’s history in the hot seat. Surely it would see their traditional base of voters abandon them?

EdgeCase

I wouldn't think the markets have priced it in tbh.
A lot of the financial media is very London-centric and there's still a lot of magical thinking going on that it will somehow be "alright on the night" and that things couldn't possibly be this stupid.

I think the big risk for the UK is that all of a sudden the markets will lose confidence and you could have a lot of questions about public or private debt sustainability and so on.

The UK is getting being given the benefit of the doubt in an enormous way by the markets. That is a double edged sword, as the other side of is that they've behaved recklessly and irrationally and there have been no immediate consequences, so they've just continued walking closer and closer to the edge. It'll be a far worse crash if there a very sudden crystallisation of risks as people start to wake up to the fact this is for real.

10000maniacs

Scoondal wrote: »

I find it strange that Sterling strengthened by over 1% on Friday. And that there was no Brexit news and very few Brexit utterances from UK MPs. Yet, at EU level according to RTE's Tony Connelly there is nothing happening on the EU side apart from continuing to allow UK politics sort out a domestic problem.
Article 50 can only be extended in exceptional circumstances, such as a general election or a new UK referendum on EU membership. Mrs. May would love to kick the can down the road again but brexiteers want out on 29 March.
An extension will only bring out the extremists of brexit.
An EEA option will never be allowed by UK citizens.
Ditching the NI backstop will be rejected by EU.
Mrs May has reached the end of her policy of delaying with nothing substantive to offer. It's time for EU to tell her to just go away and stop wasting our time.

There was heavy speculation in the London press on Friday that the UK will delay Article 50 to give more time to pass essential Brexit legislation. That is the only reason.

Jim2007

Folkstonian wrote: »

I can’t see what a vote of no confidence will achieve.

It would cause a GE and with parliament dissolved, the PM would be free to use the Queen’s Prerogative to ratify the exit treaty or withdraw A50.

EdgeCase

10000maniacs wrote: »

There was heavy speculation in the London press on Friday that the UK will delay Article 50 to give more time to pass essential Brexit legislation. That is the only reason.

The UK can't unilaterally do anything other than withdraw article 50. Delaying it requires treaty amendment by all 28 EU members.

Thargor

We're half way through January now, soon there won't even be time for the UK to debate it, then the EU to debate it and vote, if even a single country raised an issue with an A50 extension there won't be much time to sort it.

Water John

The one advantage of Corbyn tabling a no confidence motion on Tuesday after the Brexit Deal defeat is that it gets the damned thing out of the way.
Lb can then focus on backing a 2nd Ref as that is the only realistic option left to the Lb leadership.

10000maniacs

Awesome flowchart, Makes it very clear.

LuckyLloyd

black forest wrote: »

There seems to be still a little bit of confusion what can be prolonged and what needs or can be done. May be the following is helping.

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1084084399287746560?s=21

Like a lot of output from UK minds - it kind of ignores Brussels. So much of the thinking in the UK seems fixated on their own political divisions and incentives. There’s no decision points worked in there from the EU side and how they may affect the paths. As such, in trying to map out the UK options and political paths it falls victim to the traps that created the mess!

rusty the athlete

Water John wrote: »

Don't think any PM would defy an instruction of Parliament. UK strange place without a written Constitution. Not sure what power Bercow has, but the Courts have ruled(Gina Millar), that Parliament not the Cabinet is Sovereign, the primacy of power.

But she has been happy to do this several times and got away with it:

- disregarding the pairing arrangements to get the ERG amendment through last July
- Attempt to put through A50 only halted by Gina Millars brave action to get the high court ruling
- Deciding to pull the meaningful vote before Christmas
- Found in contempt over publishing legal advice before Christmas.

The woman has total contempt for Parliament and Im sure there are more dirty tricks up her sleeve, so don't be surprised.

trellheim

Paddy Power Odds

Reject Deal 1/20
Approve Deal 8/1

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-brexit so put your money where your mouth is.

although theres also an 8/1 of BoJo being next PM in 2018

rusty the athlete

trellheim wrote: »

Paddy Power Odds

Reject Deal 1/20
Approve Deal 8/1

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-brexit so put your money where your mouth is.

although theres also an 8/1 of BoJo being next PM in 2018

Any price on Trump being impeached? Could be a nice trixie.

trellheim

PP offering 9/5 for a 2019 Donnie impeachment

https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=trump