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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Capt'n Midnight

A reminder that Brexit is distracting the UK govt from other stuff.
That and the economic hit of Brexit means stuff like keeping the lights on isn't getting the attention it needs.

Hitachi still looking for investors for the new Nuclear Plant in Anglesey that's supposed to provide 6% of the UK's electricity.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hitachi-nuclear/hitachi-uk-say-no-decision-taken-on-british-nuclear-project-idUKKCN1P505Y

nc6000

amacca wrote:

The education system over there ain't that great.

I was made aware of someone from the UK who has been flying over here frequently to do work for the last year or so. Apparently in all the time he spent here he didn't realise he wasn't still in the UK.

McGiver

Strazdas wrote:

Ireland is a country of 5m and doesn't have its own currency. Irexit would be an economic catastrophe.

Strazdas wrote:

One of the main reasons Brexit was voted for is that the British public thought the UK, as a nation of 65m people and with its own currency, was a global superpower which doesn't even need the EU.

Whilst I agree overall, for the argument's sake - Iceland is a nation of just 300k, has its own currency and is not a EU member.

The size of the country, own currency and some sort of post-imperial syndrome are not the only necessary ingredients. You also need a faulty political system, long period of austerity, long history of deregulation policies, forgotten regions in decline with significant population, significant period of stagnating wages, rather large gap between the rich and the poor, rabid media controlled by oligarchs and certain level of disenfranchisement amongst the population.

Strazdas

nc6000 wrote: »

I was made aware of someone from the UK who has been flying over here frequently to do work for the last year or so. Apparently in all the time he spent here he didn't realise he wasn't still in the UK.

Plausible I guess : they might think the Irish language signs everywhere are the same as the Welsh ones and that the tricolour is some sort of regional UK flag.

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

Whilst I agree overall, for the argument's sake - Iceland is a nation of just 300k, has its own currency and is not a EU member.

The size of the country, own currency and some sort of post-imperial syndrome are not the only necessary ingredients. You also need a faulty political system, long period of austerity, long history of deregulation policies, forgotten regions in decline with significant population, significant period of stagnating wages, rather large gap between the rich and the poor, rabid media controlled by oligarchs and certain level of disenfranchisement amongst the population.

I wouldn't disagree with a word of that. I would throw in a dysfunctional relationship with WW2 (and probably WW1) as well, creating a memory of WW2 that is largely mythical.

listermint

blanch152 wrote: »

A huge proportion of the Irish population got suckered by the "we won't pay twice" populist anti-water charges brigade. Thankfully, they didn't fully succeed but it demonstrates that the Irish are just as vulnerable to an ill-informed populist rant as anyone else.

The irony is your post is wrong as you know full well that taxation paid /pays for water. So the slogan was in fact apt . Even if you didn't like the fact that taxation was paying for it ,it was. I'd rather you stick to the facts than make idiotic points about a matter from 2 years ago where the protests were successful . So it puts your 'didn't succeed' nonsense to bed.

Wrong twice blanch in one post . That's a feat.

Anthracite

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Scottish Whisky industry will be fúcked but hey ho the English are not too bothered about that

I don't think so - lots of countries produce whiskey and Scotch is still the top of the pile.

They don't really have any protected 'brands' to lose.

Tell me how

blanch152 wrote: »

A huge proportion of the Irish population got suckered by the "we won't pay twice" populist anti-water charges brigade. Thankfully, they didn't fully succeed but it demonstrates that the Irish are just as vulnerable to an ill-informed populist rant as anyone else.

Not to mention the swing during the Presidential election.

Tell me how

Back to Brexit.

A tweet in the middle of a thread from BBC european Correspondent Katya Adler.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1083664901581737984

Tweet #8

She has issued some form of clarification as there was quite a reaction to her wording but it seemed incredibly poorly phrased either intentionally or lazily.

Anthracite

Tell me how wrote: »

Back to Brexit.

A tweet in the middle of a thread from BBC european Correspondent Katya Adler.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1083664901581737984

Tweet #8

She has issued some form of clarification as there was quite a reaction to her wording but it seemed incredibly poorly phrased either intentionally or lazily.

Who is briefing her on this, you have to wonder?

Itssoeasy

nc6000 wrote: »

I was made aware of someone from the UK who has been flying over here frequently to do work for the last year or so. Apparently in all the time he spent here he didn't realise he wasn't still in the UK.

I had the same situation a good few years ago with a british couple in Dublin in regards to the UK and Ireland. She was confused as to why I(a born and raised Irish Citizen) wasn't and didn't want to be part of the UK. Her dad used to travel to Ireland(Kilkenny I think) and she had just assumed he was gone to another part of the UK. To be fair her husband seemed to know the score.

Itssoeasy

Tell me how wrote: »

Back to Brexit.

A tweet in the middle of a thread from BBC european Correspondent Katya Adler.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1083664901581737984

Tweet #8

She has issued some form of clarification as there was quite a reaction to her wording but it seemed incredibly poorly phrased either intentionally or lazily.

I saw that earlier. Well I saw her clarification and then read the replies to her tweet which were seemed to want to clarify the state of play. It's bloody late in the game for someone like Katya Adler to be making bad tweets like that. She is based in Brussels if I'm right so should be more in tune with the EU/Irish position.

[Deleted User]

Strazdas wrote: »

Plausible I guess : they might think the Irish language signs everywhere are the same as the Welsh ones and that the tricolour is some sort of regional UK flag.

English friend is a Geography teacher. He thought me calling myself Irish was the same a Scot calling themselves Scottish.

He told his girlfriend that I was British but just called myself Irish.

Itssoeasy

Deleted User wrote: »

English friend is a Geography teacher. He thought me calling myself Irish was the same a Scot calling themselves Scottish.

He told his girlfriend that I was British but just called myself Irish.

Explain that please AbG thanks.

Edit: Are you from Northern Ireland at all ?

Strazdas

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Explain that please AbG thanks.

Edit: Are you from Northern Ireland at all ?

It means the (English) guy told his girlfriend "That guy is British of course but describes himself as Irish".

Itssoeasy

Strazdas wrote: »

It means the (English) guy told his girlfriend "That guy is British of course but describes himself as Irish".

No I got that. I was thinking if AbG was from the North then maybe that's why his English guy said he was British.

joeysoap

Itssoeasy wrote: »

No I got that. I was thinking if AbG was from the North then maybe that's why his English guy said he was British.

Odds on the English guy knows zilch about Ireland.

Charles Babbage

joeysoap wrote: »

Odds on the English guy knows zilch about Ireland.

No wonder Britain is fecked if this is the geography teachers.

Over Christmas I watched the film Idiocracy on Film4, Britain is getting there.

Rain Ascending

Now's good time to try to guess the next few moves in Westminister.

Extrapolating from some comments by a political correspondent on BBC's Newsnight, below is my attempt. It probably has a 1 in 10 chance of being close to right. I'll come back in about 10 day's time, say around Tuesday week (22 Jan) and see how close I got. I invite others to try the same exercise and see if anybody can get close to the eventual outcome!

1 Theresa May looses the vote on the WA on Tuesday, by over 100 and possibly 200.

Reason: The dislike of the WA is well known. The BBC have been tracking the public pronouncements and presumably are using their own intel to estimate that she will loose by over 200.

There are a number of implications for losing so heavily. For starters, going back to the EU for changes to the backstop won't work -- even if the EU were willing -- and they aren't, there is no guarantee that removing the backstop would be enough to get the deal over the line. There are probably enough ERG MPs that would still vote it down because of the £39B. Therefore, ironically, the ERG and the DUP are irrelevant from now on because Theresa May has only one route left to getting a deal through...

2 Theresa May will declare that she will try to find a coalition across the floor of the Commons.

She will put herself in the driving seat of that negotiation. Don't expect her to ask for multiple votes on various options. On the EU side, she'll look for a letter of comfort regarding the backstop, but (quietly) won't demand changes to the WA. Instead, she'll seek to reopen negotiations of the political declaration. Knowing that the WA would be otherwise dead, the EU will reluctantly agree.

The reason is simple: As noted above, getting the ERG and DUP on board is pointless, so only opposition votes can get the WA + amended political declaration through.

3 Corbyn will call for a vote of no confidence.

Reason: He won't then be able to delay any further in that call. With 50 to 100 Tory MPs voting against the deal, it's his best opportunity to attract a number of them to vote against Theresa May even thought the outcome would probably be a general election.

What happens at the vote depends on whether or not May can hold the cabinet together and keep the DUP on board for the vote of no confidence.

If the cabinet support doesn't fall apart completely then it's hard to see how can anybody else dislodge her as leader of the Tory party. Tory MPs can't call for another vote of no confidence in her leadership for another 11 months and so if there is a general election they would be stuck with her. This is the best possible incentive for Tory MPs to vote for her government in a vote of no confidence!!

The DUP will support her government if they don't believe she can get the WA through. The possibility of negotiating with Labour MPs, however, will make the DUP very nervous and more likely to accept the risks of a general election.

So,

4 (option #1) She wins the vote of no confidence, she then she tries to negotiate with firstly the Labour leadership and, failing that, with a grouping around the likes of Chuka Umunna.

4 (option #2) She loses either the cabinet or the DUP and loses the vote of no confidence. We're probably in general election territory unless a Remainer/soft Brexiteer tries for a government of national unity. A general election will imply a negotiation with the EU for an extension to Article 50.

And you can see that by step #4, my crystal ball is already getting cloudy...

An Claidheamh

Itssoeasy wrote: »

No I got that. I was thinking if AbG was from the North then maybe that's why his English guy said he was British.

I think when people say that they give the British too much credit.

1) First of all, if he's from the North he's not British, he's Irish. (Could be a unionist though)

2) Sometimes, we put down to the jingoism of the British which can better be explained by sheer stupidity and ignorance on their part.

3) A lot of the time, they are genuinely thick, and it goes right through society - I remember a few years ago on the BBC re: the Lisbon Treaty, when David Miliband had to explain to the BBC News host that Ireland was not in the "rest of the UK".

A lot of the time it's not actually malice, however point it out or question their likelihood of knowledge of other parts of the globe, and the mask slips a bit.

4) I fear ignorance of history and geography, and sheer hypocrisy is normalised over there, unlike the rest of the EU.

Brexit is indeed a symptom

An Claidheamh

"Ireland is getting VERY nervous about ‘no deal’ as would hit trade hard but PM Varadkar is in weak position politically at home. A move by him to weaken the #Brexit backstop (even if he were tempted) would NOT go down well"

So Britain is not VERY nervous they might run out of food, medicine, civil obedience?

Good to hear, stiff upper lip and all that.

Is there a word for being clueless, arrogant and delusional all at the same time?

Iderown

I need to seriously thank you folk for sharing your knowledge of EU, Ireland and UK political matters.
I'm in, and from, Northern Ireland. Haha - not sure if I should call myself Irish, Northern Irish, British, Scottish, ...
I'm getting nervous that the UK will end up in the "no deal" type exit at the end of March. And without any sensible preparation for it. After all, there have been 2+ years for the UK government to negotiate an exit deal and to put in place the resulting processes. Does not appear that this planning has been done.

I may put in place a domestic survival programme.

Maybe one of you folk could advise me about the status of the Northern Ireland backstop arrangement in the event of a "no deal" type exit from EU in March?

DOCARCH

Iderown wrote: »

Maybe one of you folk could advise me about the status of the Northern Ireland backstop arrangement in the event of a "no deal" type exit from EU in March?

There will be no backstop with no deal!

Iderown wrote: »

I'm in, and from, Northern Ireland. Haha - not sure if I should call myself Irish, Northern Irish, British, Scottish, ...

I would suggest anybody born on the island of Ireland is Irish!

lawred2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I saw that earlier. Well I saw her clarification and then read the replies to her tweet which were seemed to want to clarify the state of play. It's bloody late in the game for someone like Katya Adler to be making bad tweets like that. She is based in Brussels if I'm right so should be more in tune with the EU/Irish position.

What was the the 'clarification'?

[Deleted User]

Itssoeasy wrote: »

No I got that. I was thinking if AbG was from the North then maybe that's why his English guy said he was British.

I'm not from the north, no, but I am from Ulster. We live in Asia and his girlfriend is Asian, and even she was a bit confused by what he said so she asked my girlfriend.

It was pretty odd.

hometruths

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Now's good time to try to guess the next few moves in Westminister.

Extrapolating from some comments by a political correspondent on BBC's Newsnight, below is my attempt. It probably has a 1 in 10 chance of being close to right. I'll come back in about 10 day's time, say around Tuesday week (22 Jan) and see how close I got. I invite others to try the same exercise and see if anybody can get close to the eventual outcome!

I'll give it a shot.

1) TM loses the vote on the WA by over 100. House of Commons in uproar, majority against the WA, but no majority for any alternative.

2) EU issues some platitudes about the intention that the backstop is only temporary but it is not enough to win the hardline DUP/ERG etc.

3) MPs agree that leaving on No Deal terms is not an option so the only way forward is to ask the EU 27 for an extension to Article 50, to allow UK to get their house in order.

4) At least one of the EU27 says no extension. We're fed up with this nonsense, if you want to leave, then leave. Take the WA or No Deal, but just get it over with. A decision to grant to extension has to be unanimous so the answer from EU is no extension.

5) MPs realise they have backed themselves into a corner. Having ruled out the WA and No Deal, with no extension the only way to stop the clock and avoid No Deal is to revoke Article 50.

6) A group of cross party pragmatic MPs propose to revoke Article 50 in the national interest to avoid No Deal. A lot of bluster about the threat to democracy etc but revoking is spun as a temporary measure to allow Parliament to agree on the best way to leave the EU etc, they can trigger Article 50 again in the future etc.

7) They revoke Article 50, and the can is kicked down the road. Indefinitely.

The above is obviously going to take more than 10 days to unfold, but ultimately this is how I think it will play out

DOCARCH

schmittel wrote: »

7) They revoke Article 50, and the can is kicked down the road.

If the intention was that....i.e. kicking down the road or there was an inkling UK might trigger A50 again in the near future....the EU may not accept revocation!

Probably into very sticky territory, but revocation has to be in 'good faith'.

Hard to know how that might pan out, as it has never happened before!

nice_guy80

Hopefully if there is a GE then the DUP will get mauled

lawred2

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Hopefully if there is a GE then the DUP will get mauled

Unlikely. Tribal politics forgives all sorts.

Enzokk

Tell me how wrote: »

Back to Brexit.

A tweet in the middle of a thread from BBC european Correspondent Katya Adler.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1083664901581737984

Tweet #8

She has issued some form of clarification as there was quite a reaction to her wording but it seemed incredibly poorly phrased either intentionally or lazily.

It is possible that her thoughts got lost in the 280 characters she has to try and articulate it, but her response seems clumsy as well so it makes me think her thought is not that well thought out.

lawred2 wrote: »

What was the the 'clarification'?

This was her clarification,

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1083674416838598656

"Tweet provoked lots of reaction so let me clarify: Was NOT saying LV wants to back away from backstop. I realise too he has cross party support on Brexit but was hypothesising he’d lose support he needs IF backed away from backstop as gov relies on confidence + supply agreement"

So I guess what she was trying to say was that Varadkar would lose support if he waters down the backstop. There is no intention to do that but if he did then he would be weak. It is shoddy journalism from the BBC once again and only she knows whether she made an honest mistake on her tweet or that is her personal feeling of the situation Varadkar finds himself in.