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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Laois_Man

Not sure if Bryan Dobson's interview with Boris has been mentioned here.

Boris, caught in a corner with the line of questioning, takes Dobbo's notes to scoff at them

Dobbo's retort was fabulous and drew a loud ovation.

https://twitter.com/SweetLikeAli/status/1083397600311734272

robinph

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Article 50 to be extended past the European elections? Ironically, Farage could prove the first casualty, given the UK system for electing MEPs, unless he joins another party:

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1083699422591176706

Could she then be cancelling the vote scheduled for next Tuesday again so that she doesn't go on the history books with being defeated?

Would be a major change of tactic if applying to extend article 50 though, and she'd need to have something other than going back to the EU for clarifications. Such as needing time to hold a referendum.

Seth Brundle

And yet another financial institution decides to move part of its operations out of the UK...

One of Japan’s largest banks has blamed Brexit for its decision to move part of its business to Amsterdam, 24 hours after Theresa May sought to enlist the Japanese prime minister in the fight to save her deal with the EU.

Norinchukin bank announced plans to set up a wholly owned subsidiary in the Dutch capital, a move that critics of the prime minister’s deal cited as evidence that both a no-deal Brexit and her deal were likely to damage the UK economy.

The bank said in its statement on Friday morning that the decision had been made “in response to the planned withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, and other changes to the economic environment in Europe”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/11/japanese-bank-blames-brexit-for-move-to-amsterdam

An Ciarraioch

Article 50 to be extended past the European elections? Ironically, Farage could prove the first casualty, given the UK system for electing MEPs, unless he joins another party:

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1083699422591176706

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I actually did hear that.

Yer man saying "what is Brexit?" Was clearly displaying nationalist facetiousness.

Exactly.

BonnieSituation

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

On Pat Kenny on newstalk this morning they had a piece asking locals in Strabane about Brexit. Some gems like

Q. How do you feel about Brexit?
A. What is Brexit?

Q. What do you know backstop?
A. Yes, we are going back to stop and search

Listen back on newstalk should have these

I actually did hear that.

Yer man saying "what is Brexit?" Was clearly displaying nationalist facetiousness.

J Mysterio

ambro25 wrote: »

I was in Oxford earlier this week for business, taking the time to chat with locals (business types, but also others: hotel, bar, pub, petrol station, bus staff; British hotel guests...) and to catch national news between meetings and work. First time back in the U.K. nearly a year after brexoding, in a neck of the woods I don’t know much at all.

It didn’t seem that many cared that much about Brexit. There wasn’t active disengagement from the topic as such, more like a mix of disinterest and fatalism not conducive of pursuing about the topic. At street level, it very much felt like the country’s got Brexit fatigue and has relegated the affair to background noise / ‘whatever-ism’.

Not a good thing.

I think many dont want to discuss it as it risks an argument, so it's avoided, and brushed under the carpet. Its split families etc. down the middle.

Sam Russell

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

On Pat Kenny on newstalk this morning they had a piece asking locals in Strabane about Brexit. Some gems like

Q. How do you feel about Brexit?
A. What is Brexit?

Q. What do you know backstop?
A. Yes, we are going back to stop and search

Listen back on newstalk should have these

My reaction to hearing those - particularly the first - was that we are in for some paramilitary activity on the border if it is reimposed as a hard border.

BonnieSituation

And some of us get criticised for having the temerity to say that English people are less engaged politically than Irish people?

intellectual dosser

ambro25 wrote: »

I was in Oxford earlier this week for business, taking the time to chat with locals (business types, but also others: hotel, bar, pub, petrol station, bus staff; British hotel guests...) and to catch national news between meetings and work. First time back in the U.K. nearly a year after brexoding, in a neck of the woods I don’t know much at all.

It didn’t seem that many cared that much about Brexit. There wasn’t active disengagement from the topic as such, more like a mix of disinterest and fatalism not conducive of pursuing about the topic. At street level, it very much felt like the country’s got Brexit fatigue and has relegated the affair to background noise / ‘whatever-ism’.

Not a good thing.

My experience as well when visiting before Christmas.

I have a family member working over there who says that her work colleagues not only don't talk regularly about Brexit, but are completely oblivious as to whats coming down the road in the next few months.

Tell me how

Folkstonian wrote: »

Probably more to do with the fact that it doesn’t come naturally to English people to unload all their personal views on as controversial a topic as Brexit to a literal stranger.

I know that I’d feel quite uncomfortable if I was in a pub (or a petrol station!) and a man I didn’t know asked me about Corbyn, or immigration or universal credit etc. I expect I’d politely try and bat it off!

I wouldn’t confuse an outward display of apathy towards debate with being completely disinterested in the future of the country though.

An example I gave here previously was my brother who is a vet based near Manchester. He is there for 10+ years so certainly has built up a relationship with his clients and he says that 8 out of 10 pay zero attention to the daily goings on and 6 of those 8 seem to have an opinion that the EU are the ones preventing them having a deal and so they should just walk away and be done with it.

Folkstonian

ambro25 wrote: »

I was in Oxford earlier this week for business, taking the time to chat with locals (business types, but also others: hotel, bar, pub, petrol station, bus staff; British hotel guests...) and to catch national news between meetings and work. First time back in the U.K. nearly a year after brexoding, in a neck of the woods I don’t know much at all.

It didn’t seem that many cared that much about Brexit. There wasn’t active disengagement from the topic as such, more like a mix of disinterest and fatalism not conducive of pursuing about the topic. At street level, it very much felt like the country’s got Brexit fatigue and has relegated the affair to background noise / ‘whatever-ism’.

Not a good thing.

Probably more to do with the fact that it doesn’t come naturally to English people to unload all their personal views on as controversial a topic as Brexit to a literal stranger.

I know that I’d feel quite uncomfortable if I was in a pub (or a petrol station!) and a man I didn’t know asked me about Corbyn, or immigration or universal credit etc. I expect I’d politely try and bat it off!

I wouldn’t confuse an outward display of apathy towards debate with being completely disinterested in the future of the country though.

Tell me how

josip wrote: »

I've heard the same from a customer of ours, based in the City of London.
'The politicians will sort something out' was what I was told in December.
Perhaps they're so focused on their domestic (only) market, that they don't see it as having any impact on them.

One of the people who I speak to about it works for a company making parts for car manufacturers with plants in the UK.
I was stunned when she said that it doesn't really come up.

I thought they'd be having weekly strategy meetings on it but it looks like they are waiting to see just what will happen.

josip

Tell me how wrote: »

Have heard the exact same thing from friends/family living there.

I've heard the same from a customer of ours, based in the City of London.
'The politicians will sort something out' was what I was told in December.
Perhaps they're so focused on their domestic (only) market, that they don't see it as having any impact on them.

Patser

After Maxwell and Kumar talking the most sense recently, Jarvis Cocker is currently on BBC 2 Politics live, calling out the politicians saying Let's have a 2nd vote, everyone's vote will still count, so those that voted Out last time can still have their say, but it's 'Baby-ish' to stick to old arguments

Edit: and just said to a Labour spokesperson who kept on saying lets have an election: Why not have an election and a referendum on the same day

Tell me how

ambro25 wrote: »

I was in Oxford earlier this week for business, taking the time to chat with locals (business types, but also others: hotel, bar, pub, petrol station, bus staff; British hotel guests...) and to catch national news between meetings and work. First time back in the U.K. nearly a year after brexoding, in a neck of the woods I don’t know much at all.

It didn’t seem that many cared that much about Brexit. There wasn’t active disengagement from the topic as such, more like a mix of disinterest and fatalism not conducive of pursuing about the topic. At street level, it very much felt like the country’s got Brexit fatigue and has relegated the affair to background noise / ‘whatever-ism’.

Not a good thing.

Have heard the exact same thing from friends/family living there.

ambro25

I was in Oxford earlier this week for business, taking the time to chat with locals (business types, but also others: hotel, bar, pub, petrol station, bus staff; British hotel guests...) and to catch national news between meetings and work. First time back in the U.K. nearly a year after brexoding, in a neck of the woods I don’t know much at all.

It didn’t seem that many cared that much about Brexit. There wasn’t active disengagement from the topic as such, more like a mix of disinterest and fatalism not conducive of pursuing about the topic. At street level, it very much felt like the country’s got Brexit fatigue and has relegated the affair to background noise / ‘whatever-ism’.

Not a good thing.

First Up

prawnsambo wrote: »

The question that really needs to be asked is whether or not these exporters will be in competition with cheaper imports from the rest of the world because just about everyone exporting to Britain will be subject to the same tariffs and non-tariff barriers. And of course whether the price point including such tariffs will stop or cut back exports to Britain.

Yes, its unlikely Irish exporters to the UK will be trading on less favourable terms than exporters from elsewhere but they will probably be trading on terms less favourable than now.

Sterling going through the floor is probably a bigger threat, as well as delays at UK ports that will hamper movement of fresh food. However we will still be closer than almost anyone else.

Leroy42

jmayo wrote: »

There are always the muppets on there, in the audience and on the panel, that trot out the usual cr** about how brilliant and strong Britain was before EEC/EU membership and how they will be again.
They usually also trot out something about World Trade as a cherry on top.

It is not just on that show.

Baker, a leading figure in the backbench European Research Group (ERG), said he is drawing up specific suggestions to force the EU to come to the table. “I’m very clear what should be done. I’m clear that we can write down the right way forward and I am as confident as I can be that the right plan could rescue the negotiations for the country, the government, the Conservative party and the EU. Of course, in the usual way we will make constructive suggestions for the right way forward,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/ex-brexit-minister-to-put-pressure-on-may-with-new-deal-proposal

So here we have an elected MP basically saying that if only they had done things his way then they would have got everything they wanted. So whilst he is not blaming the EU, he is saying the EU took advantage of a terrible negotiation from the UK.

The next line of the article is, of course, the most telling;

Baker declined to offer further details on his plans.

As per usual. Basically, everybody else is wrong, I would have done a much better job, but I can't tell you what I would have done of how different anything would be. Except that it would be brilliant!

They still totally believe that the only reason why things aren't already brilliant is bad luck and timing. Brexit, despite all the evidence, is still the greatest thing ever.

prawnsambo

jmayo wrote: »

I have a fair Irish experts tell us that most of export revenue is not with UK, but they appear to forget more jobs and probably more long term sustainable jobs rely on our small SMEs than some foreign multinationals and those SMEs are going to suffer big time with hard Brexit.

The question that really needs to be asked is whether or not these exporters will be in competition with cheaper imports from the rest of the world because just about everyone exporting to Britain will be subject to the same tariffs and non-tariff barriers. And of course whether the price point including such tariffs will stop or cut back exports to Britain.

jmayo

Tell me how wrote: »

Some in audience on Question Time blaming the EU for the difficulty in negotiations and getting rapturous applause.

Shaking my head at this.

There are always the muppets on there, in the audience and on the panel, that trot out the usual cr** about how brilliant and strong Britain was before EEC/EU membership and how they will be again.
They usually also trot out something about World Trade as a cherry on top.

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I've given up listening to the brexit debate from the British point of view. It's obvious that a good number of the British people are completely unaware of the potential issues that may happen at the end of March. If the Republic of Ireland didn't have a land border with the UK I'd say leave them sink but I don't want even the possibility of any type of border on this island.

We have a lot more issues than just the actual border with the north.

We have huge issues coming up with the UK landbridge.
Also exports to UK itself which affects most of our indigenous SMEs and our everyday imports from UK.

I have often hear a fair Irish experts tell us that most of export revenue is not with UK, but they appear to forget more jobs and probably more long term sustainable jobs rely on our small SMEs than some foreign multinationals and those SMEs are going to suffer big time with hard Brexit.

VinLieger

Skelet0n wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XEj64IFzQ8&feature=youtu.be

David Lammy’s speech for anyone who’d like to see it, really well said.

Amazing speech and very well delivered.

I especially loved the line for corbyn and his labour leaver's "socialism confined to one country will not work!"

Tell me how

J Mysterio wrote: »

He also gave a great speech a week or two ago. Its pinned on his twitter.

Good content, but, would be more impressive if he wasn't reading it (as well if it was to full house).

Anna Soubry gives better speeches , I think, for this reason.

J Mysterio

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Incredible speech. The finest I've seen in HoC on any subject in decades.
Let it be the rock that the the withdrawal of A50 is built on.

He also gave a great speech a week or two ago. Its pinned on his twitter.

Edit:

Tell me how

Nody wrote: »

Highly doubtful; Brexiteers are unlikely to be swayed (as it goes against what they believe as "truth") and for the Remainers it contains nothing new. It's a good speech don't get me wrong but it's not going to be have a significant impact because it's said by the wrong person at the wrong time.

Unfortunately too often it is the case that you hear of someone saying something significant in a house of parliament somewhere, UK, Ireland, US etc and when you go to look up on it you see they were largely speaking to an empty chamber.

The unfortunate reality is that that speech was aimed at the other members of parliament and more have read it on Boards than MP's who either heard it there or will read it afterwards.

Nody

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Incredible speech. The finest I've seen in HoC on any subject in decades.
Let it be the rock that the the withdrawal of A50 is built on.

Highly doubtful; Brexiteers are unlikely to be swayed (as it goes against what they believe as "truth") and for the Remainers it contains nothing new. It's a good speech don't get me wrong but it's not going to be have a significant impact because it's said by the wrong person at the wrong time.

lawred2

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Incredible speech. The finest I've seen in HoC on any subject in decades.
Let it be the rock that the the withdrawal of A50 is built on.

Well it's a pity the HOC was as empty as I've seen it in a long time

fergiesfolly

Skelet0n wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XEj64IFzQ8&feature=youtu.be

David Lammy’s speech for anyone who’d like to see it, really well said.

Incredible speech. The finest I've seen in HoC on any subject in decades.
Let it be the rock that the the withdrawal of A50 is built on.

Skelet0n

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XEj64IFzQ8&feature=youtu.be

David Lammy’s speech for anyone who’d like to see it, really well said.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

. . . Couple of points, firstly if we are to say that Corbyn is very much a Brexiteer when he is not trying to stop Brexit but voted for it I would say the same is true of May. I believe she is as cynical as any politician out there and the same as Boris Johnson she thought the best avenue for her career was to back remaining in the EU and thus campaigned that way. Had she thought backing Leave would enhance her career she would have done so, if you look at her actions as PM and how she has tried to bend and sometimes break the rules to stay in power.

I think May is a Leaver by instinct rather than by conviction. Her ostensible stance in favour of Remain was never terribly convincing and, I agree, was adopted for what she thought at the time was political advantage. But this may also indicate that the EU was always a second-order issue for her; if she asked herself did she want Britain to Leave her answer was propably "yes, but this is not what I came into politics to do".

So, when the referendum was won by Leave and it was necessary and respectable for Tory politicians to be Leavers she did not find it difficult to make the pivot in public; she was pivoting to a position which, privately, she had held all along. But it was also painfully clear that she was profoundly ignorant about Brexit, that she had not given it much thought, and that she had no idea what it might involve. (This is consistent with it having been a second-order issue for her up to now.) And this is why she started out by declaring an absurd and inconsistent set of red lines.

So she kind of fell into a Leaver position which was fairly hastily constructed on her instincts, prejudices and preconceptions. And, it turns out, these lead her to prioritise the end of Free Movement over other possible Brexit objectives. But this isn't, I think, something she decided at the outset. Rather, when she was confronted with the contradictions of her own position and forced to start making choices, the choices she made disclosed (I think to her as much as to everyone else) that what she wanted above all else was to end Free Movement.

(Which, possibly, is why she has been able to walk away from her previous anti-ECHR position. That position would make it difficult to secure a Withdrawal Agreement and a Future Relationship Agreement with the EU, so it's disposable. But "stop the foreigners!" is not.)

Enzokk wrote: »

Then on the ECHR, am I right in thinking this is one area that if the UK leaves the ECHR it is actually in breach of the GFA?

Yes, you are. If the UK were to take NI out of the EConventionHR, or rule out the jurisdiction of the ECourtHR over NI disputes, that would be a clear breach of the GFA. In theory they could possibly take GB out while leaving NI in, but that would be acutely embarrassing for them, and I doubt they would even try. (And if they did try I'm not sure they would succeed - I haven't thought about the mechanics of this.)