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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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CelticRambler

Harry Palmr wrote: »

With such a short period left until it either happens or doesn't one wonders if there's going to be a mad splurge of business exit stories or if on the contrary it suddenly goes quiet as everyone waits to see what type of Brexit unfolds and if it's actually on schedule - I won't be surprised if Art 50 is extended.

I will. :rolleyes: The only justification for extending Art 50 would be the UK deciding what it wants. Juncker, Barnier et al have asked repeatedly for the UK to say what it wants so that their request can be considered, and in two years of "negotiations" that question has never been answered.

As or business stories; no, I don't think there'll be a mad splurge, nor will it suddenly go quiet. I suspect many businesses and private individuals - like me - have already made plans for later in the year that do not include dealing with the UK. While the Brexiteers are waiting for the EU to cave at their idea of what constitutes the "last minute" - March 29th - here in the real world, that "last minute" has already passed and orders have been placed goods and services with suppliers elsewhere who won't be affected by Brexit uncertainty.

The only benefit now for (small) British businesses of "no no-deal" is that there will be fewer bankruptcies in the short to medium term.

demfad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, that can't be it, since any such vote would fail, leaving him safely in opposition.

He has every intention of forcing a GE when it is actually possible.

A GE would tear the Conservative party asunder. There is no way they will go there. Labour are not exactly united on their platform either.

Corbyn is talking about being in a Customs Union but with a say on future EU deals. He would negotiate a deal that would not require a backstop?

The EU will not extend A50 on this basis.

The only way out of this is a people's vote. I really don't know what he is playing at. Maybe he is waiting till there is overwhelming support for another referendum. Maybe his bubble of close advisors are still urging him to cling to Lexit.

mrbrianj

I cant see the EU agreeing an extension to A50 unless there is some prospect of an agreement on the WA. At the moment there is not, so there is no reason to extend A50 just to facilitate more of the same bluster we have had for the last 2 years. Any current opposing voice to TM just wants to rip up the current WA but has nothing better to offer than false promises to their own voters.

The UK really does not seem to have a clue what they actually want - how can the EU deal with that?

WomanSkirtFan8

Sam Russell wrote: »

- or cancelled.

The HoC can vote to cancel art 50, but they need EU27 agreement to extend.

I agree with that. Given the turmoil in the uk at the moment, it seems to me that the most logical and sensible thing to do now would either be extend A50 or cancel it altogether. My money's on the latter. :rolleyes:

Tell me how

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Wrong, this is the official policy adopted at Conference, as I already told you:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/25/labour-delegates-back-keir-starmer-push-for-public-vote-on-brexit
The relevant quote:

In a compromise brokered by Starmer and backed by the vast majority of delegates in a show of hands on Tuesday, Labour’s formal position is now that the party will seek a public vote on Brexit if parliament rejects Theresa May’s deal and it cannot force a general election.

Corbyn is simply following Labour policy as of September.

That's typically wishy washy by Labour.

If May loses and if they cannot force a General Election then they will not be in any position to do anything and so them seeking a public vote will not happen.

If they do get their general election (looking somewhat likely now) then all bets are off as to what will happen but I suspect Corbyn will look to campaign on a mandate of delivering the will of the people, i.e. Brexit.
It is possible that others will recognise the futility of such a position and look to remove him.

Zubeneschamali

Thomas_IV wrote: »

I never meant it to be a secret, but one can see the obvious that the leadership of the LP is following a contrasting or even opposing way in the case of Brexit than what the grassroots Membership and other LP representatives from Cllrs to MPs want.

Wrong, this is the official policy adopted at Conference, as I already told you:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/25/labour-delegates-back-keir-starmer-push-for-public-vote-on-brexit
The relevant quote:

In a compromise brokered by Starmer and backed by the vast majority of delegates in a show of hands on Tuesday, Labour’s formal position is now that the party will seek a public vote on Brexit if parliament rejects Theresa May’s deal and it cannot force a general election.

Corbyn is simply following Labour policy as of September.

Water John

Downing St trying to limit the Plan B debate to one amendment and 90 minutes. This takes some brass neck, having lost 2 votes and this will be after losing the Brexit vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/brexit-plan-b-debate-will-last-only-90-minutes-says-no-10

Doubt if Bercow will oblige them. The views of Parliament are too important at that point.

Sam Russell

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I won't be surprised if Art 50 is extended.

- or cancelled.

The HoC can vote to cancel art 50, but they need EU27 agreement to extend.

Harry Palmr

More Post Brexit jobs heading to Ireland with AXA pulling the plug on it's London operations with regard to servicing EU 27 risks and reinsurance, amusingly they will have to move some French located jobs as well as part of the terms and conditions set down by the regulator here.

https://www.reinsurancene.ws/axa-to-move-int-risk-reinsurance-units-to-ireland-due-to-brexit/

With such a short period left until it either happens or doesn't one wonders if there's going to be a mad splurge of business exit stories or if on the contrary it suddenly goes quiet as everyone waits to see what type of Brexit unfolds and if it's actually on schedule - I won't be surprised if Art 50 is extended.

[Deleted User]

It's remarkable that every possible outcome seems so unlikely, but one of them will happen.

LuckyLloyd

josip wrote: »

The hard core Brexiteers won't be shocked at all by that.
But the gullible people who believe them will be.
And then the hard core Brexiteers will tell them that it's all the EU's fault and the shock will be forgotten.
And they'll all sing along like before.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxbIU0X-lCI&t=1m10s

Sing the Singaporean national anthem while waving a US flag, more like.

josip

Russman wrote: »

..Yet all the indications are that the EU won't actually cave and that the hard core Brexiteers are in for a very big shock. But it can't be that simple, or can it ?

The hard core Brexiteers won't be shocked at all by that.
But the gullible people who believe them will be.
And then the hard core Brexiteers will tell them that it's all the EU's fault and the shock will be forgotten.
And they'll all sing along like before.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxbIU0X-lCI&t=1m10s

Thomas_IV

Russman wrote: »

That's the bit that I don't quite get. I mean, part of me is thinking they can't possibly be that naïve / deluded / misguided / arrogant, call it what you will, and that they must know something we don't. Yet all the indications are that the EU won't actually cave and that the hard core Brexiteers are in for a very big shock. But it can't be that simple, or can it ?

I'm afraid it can and we will see this happen.

Thomas_IV

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They do in reality. A recent poll of Momentum members showed very strong support for a second referendum - especially if there isn't a GE.. Only 17% are against a second referendum in all circumstances.

Thanks for that. But as one had to learn to know Corbyn, this doesn't bother him unless he's forced to follow up. That means that he tables an no-confidence motion against the UK govt in the Commons, after May's deal is voted down and loses that motion. Both are likely to happen. Both would be (normally) be politically finished as leaders, but in this unusual Brexit situation, they might probably stay on unless others challenge them and topple them.

The UK has the political means to stop Brexit but the politicians doesn't have the will to do it.

Russman

Tell me how wrote: »

It's stunning to watch from the outside and wonder why they are not seeing what we are seeing. The likes of Ian Duncan Smyth saying some weeks ago that the EU really needed to step up to the plate

That's the bit that I don't quite get. I mean, part of me is thinking they can't possibly be that naïve / deluded / misguided / arrogant, call it what you will, and that they must know something we don't. Yet all the indications are that the EU won't actually cave and that the hard core Brexiteers are in for a very big shock. But it can't be that simple, or can it ?

Professor Moriarty

Thomas_IV wrote: »

IMV, it's not quite that clear with Momentum having a major pro-EU stance. They're a far-left to left-wing non-LP political movement, associated or better affiliated to the LP, but Corbyn has up to now always managed to make them believe that the future he and his supporters dream of is better to be achieved outside the EU and this is why he always has been and still is anti-EU. He was much uncomfortable and in fact more reluctant to canvass for Remain in the BrexitRef 2016, but he had to cos the LP openly stood for Remain.

The fact that a certain part of the Labour voters voted for Leave in 2016 as they were probably swallowing his delusions, brought him the Basis upon which he was able to justify his pro-Brexit stance, disguised as 'soft Brexit'. In fact the Leave voters of Labour voters have always been a minority, comparable to that Momentum (but able to tip the balance in favour of Corbyn in the leadership election).

I don't know how close and for how long you have been following this political developments in the UK that took place since 2015, cos things that were started already then are unfolding more stronger by now.

I agree with you on your estimation that Corbyn has put himself into an isolated position cos this is also due to the fact that his true colours are more shining through and people (or say many LP members) are realising by now that they've voted the wrong person as the leader and that twice.

Keir Starmer, his shadow Brexit secretary, would be the better LP leader and he's one that I deem to be pragmatic cos he talks sense and is less the ideologist than Corbyn, but currently due to this Brexit Farce and the time until the Exit date getting shorter, there is apparently no big chance to challenge Corbyn in a leadership contest. This might occure sooner when he fails to topple May in the coming weeks (given that her deal is voted down), gets his GE but loses to the Tories once again (polls point out that with Corbyn going for Brexit the LP would lose more votes in a GE since 1983). But a GE is not the best solution to end this deadlock in the Commons, a BrexitRef2 is because that would put the responsibility for Brexit back to the electorate and the chances that the result of a BrexitRef2 would be a majority of Remain is the very thing May and Corbyn both dislike most.

There is much theatre in the Commons to be exptected the next couple of days up to the date of the meaningful vote on 15 January 2019.

I have time and again read some comments on Irish websites (this one here included) in which people were complaining about their politicians in the Dáil but frankly, when looking at Westminster Ireland is far more better off with the ones Ireland has.

They do in reality. A recent poll of Momentum members showed very strong support for a second referendum - especially if there isn't a GE. Only 17% are against a second referendum in all circumstances.

prawnsambo

Christy42 wrote: »

Has the last two years simply been various UK politicians stating that they will get the best deal without outlining anything about their ideal deal?

I think it was James O'Brien who said that the minute they tried to write it down would be when the whole thing fell apart. And that's been pretty much borne out by events. The ERG were supposed to put their plan down on paper and then ran away when they couldn't. So the default position for everyone has been to act as hurlers on the ditch and shy away from anything concrete that will inevitably be torn apart.

Tell me how

Christy42 wrote: »

Has the last two years simply been various UK politicians stating that they will get the best deal without outlining anything about their ideal deal?

Someone asked Corbyn should be asked whether he would put May's deal back if he made no progress. I would also ask how embarrassing it would be when the 27 told him they were not interested in further negotiation (which they would) and not even let him in the room never mind change the deal.

It's stunning to watch from the outside and wonder why they are not seeing what we are seeing. The likes of Ian Duncan Smyth saying some weeks ago that the EU really needed to step up to the plate was like something someone in a coma would wake up and say.

To this point, this whole Brexit thing has dramatically reduced the standing the UK has in the world.

Christy42

Has the last two years simply been various UK politicians stating that they will get the best deal without outlining anything about their ideal deal?

Someone asked Corbyn should be asked whether he would put May's deal back if he made no progress. I would also ask how embarrassing it would be when the 27 told him they were not interested in further negotiation (which they would) and not even let him in the room never mind change the deal.

Thomas_IV

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is not some Corbyn secret you have figured out, it is Labour Party policy since the last conference and very well publicised.

I never meant it to be a secret, but one can see the obvious that the leadership of the LP is following a contrasting or even opposing way in the case of Brexit than what the grassroots Membership and other LP representatives from Cllrs to MPs want.

Thomas_IV

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. However, Corbyn has another growing problem as Momentum, who put Corbyn in power as you say, is increasingly pro-Europe and pro a second referendum. As, of course, are a large majority of Labour MPs and voters. Corbyn is increasingly isolated from almost all factions of Labour members and voters. But, like May, he will plough on regardless.

IMV, it's not quite that clear with Momentum having a major pro-EU stance. They're a far-left to left-wing non-LP political movement, associated or better affiliated to the LP, but Corbyn has up to now always managed to make them believe that the future he and his supporters dream of is better to be achieved outside the EU and this is why he always has been and still is anti-EU. He was much uncomfortable and in fact more reluctant to canvass for Remain in the BrexitRef 2016, but he had to cos the LP openly stood for Remain.

The fact that a certain part of the Labour voters voted for Leave in 2016 as they were probably swallowing his delusions, brought him the Basis upon which he was able to justify his pro-Brexit stance, disguised as 'soft Brexit'. In fact the Leave voters of Labour voters have always been a minority, comparable to that Momentum (but able to tip the balance in favour of Corbyn in the leadership election).

I don't know how close and for how long you have been following this political developments in the UK that took place since 2015, cos things that were started already then are unfolding more stronger by now.

I agree with you on your estimation that Corbyn has put himself into an isolated position cos this is also due to the fact that his true colours are more shining through and people (or say many LP members) are realising by now that they've voted the wrong person as the leader and that twice.

Keir Starmer, his shadow Brexit secretary, would be the better LP leader and he's one that I deem to be pragmatic cos he talks sense and is less the ideologist than Corbyn, but currently due to this Brexit Farce and the time until the Exit date getting shorter, there is apparently no big chance to challenge Corbyn in a leadership contest. This might occure sooner when he fails to topple May in the coming weeks (given that her deal is voted down), gets his GE but loses to the Tories once again (polls point out that with Corbyn going for Brexit the LP would lose more votes in a GE since 1983). But a GE is not the best solution to end this deadlock in the Commons, a BrexitRef2 is because that would put the responsibility for Brexit back to the electorate and the chances that the result of a BrexitRef2 would be a majority of Remain is the very thing May and Corbyn both dislike most.

There is much theatre in the Commons to be exptected the next couple of days up to the date of the meaningful vote on 15 January 2019.

I have time and again read some comments on Irish websites (this one here included) in which people were complaining about their politicians in the Dáil but frankly, when looking at Westminster Ireland is far more better off with the ones Ireland has.

listermint

Call me Al wrote: »

Theresa Villiers was on C4 news a few nights back, and without a flinch said that there was nothing wrong with WTO trading should it come to it, that most if the world trades on it, that they simply needed to go back to Brussels and ask for further compromise and that the EU would accommodate them.
And I'm convinced she believes every word of it. As do all her ERG chums.

I mean if only these Brexiteers could have had some input into brexit negotiations and preparations.

You only believe these things if you have nothing really resting on them.

i.e people of means dont care because whatever happens the outcome has scant impact on their day to day. Effectively shielded by finance and privilege That is why we have devil may care attitude and a cavalier approach to real problems

Call me Al

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, that can't be it, since any such vote would fail, leaving him safely in opposition.

He has every intention of forcing a GE when it is actually possible.

He best hope for another polling miracle then.

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

That's why he's not called a vote of confidence etc. simply because he does not want to get in power right now

No, that can't be it, since any such vote would fail, leaving him safely in opposition.

He has every intention of forcing a GE when it is actually possible.

Zubeneschamali

Thomas_IV wrote: »

What one can summarise from it is that nothing new is really there, it's just that it has become more clear by his own words what he's really after and that is a GE, the alternative to this which is a BrexitRef2 is still not what he backs up but what he might concede if there is no other choice left for him.

This is not some Corbyn secret you have figured out, it is Labour Party policy since the last conference and very well publicised.

Professor Moriarty

Thomas_IV wrote: »

Did you ever expect anything than ideology from that chap? I never did expect anything else and therefore I am not in the slightest disappointed in him, but the disgust at that man is increasing for a long time by now. He's become unbearable with his 'soft-Brexit' nonsense and his tactics to seek a way to topple May but when he gets the chance to do it he fails utterly.

Just to remember, the many people who voted him in as leader of the LP are as much ideologists as he is himself. The Momentum movement is the one outside the LP that managed to vote him in by an huge increase of new membership applications in August / September 2015 in order to vote for him. Before that, he was either a nobody or just the 'black sheep' that held a seat since 1983 but always voted against his own party.

The UK LP has been taken over by a bunch of far-left ideologists and they are also backed up by likewise Trade Union activists and representatives.

With Corbyn remaining as the leader of the LP and a UK exiting the EU without a deal, the UK LP fate might become as similar crushing for them like the Irish LP has experienced in 2015 as well. In compare with both of them, the UK LP has nobody but to blame herself for that and of course Corbyn for his tactical misconduct in order to get into No 10, which he desires the most but hopefully will never get.

Indeed. However, Corbyn has another growing problem as Momentum, who put Corbyn in power as you say, is increasingly pro-Europe and pro a second referendum. As, of course, are a large majority of Labour MPs and voters. Corbyn is increasingly isolated from almost all factions of Labour members and voters. But, like May, he will plough on regardless.

Call me Al

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Does she genuinely believe this though?

I'm not suggesting you're wrong... but if this is still the genuine belief then these people are incredibly dumb naive.

Theresa Villiers was on C4 news a few nights back, and without a flinch said that there was nothing wrong with WTO trading should it come to it, that most if the world trades on it, that they simply needed to go back to Brussels and ask for further compromise and that the EU would accommodate them.
And I'm convinced she believes every word of it. As do all her ERG chums.

I mean if only these Brexiteers could have had some input into brexit negotiations and preparations.

Nody

Thomas_IV wrote: »

Did you ever expect anything than ideology from that chap? I never did expect anything else and therefore I am not in the slightest disappointed in him, but the disgust at that man is increasing for a long time by now. He's become unbearable with his 'soft-Brexit' nonsense and his tactics to seek a way to topple May but when he gets the chance to do it he fails utterly.

I think you misjudge him on the bolded part; he does not want to topple her UNTIL the crash out to ensure he gets to ride in as the white night. He wants a hard brexit to ensure he gets to implement his visions of how things should be (which require a hard brexit to be allowed to break budget limits, state aid etc.) but he wants to bear minimal fallout from it. Hence keep talking about how bad it is, how they should do it differently etc. and wait out until UK crashes out before declaring a need for a GE to be won by showing how he would have done things differently but oh well to late for that now.

That's why he's not called a vote of confidence etc. simply because he does not want to get in power right now and have to deal with the internal power struggle that would come with it. Once they are out however the whole leave/remain fight will mostly go away and due to how things are going he can play domestic politics instead for years without worrying about EU.

jm08

Bambi wrote: »

If a time traveller from 2018 had popped up during the second referendum and told the voters that The Irish Army would be deploying units in some dismal war torn part of North Africa in a non UN role via PESCO (which was a part of the Lisbon Treaty) the treaty would have been shot down again

So hardly hoodwinking.

The deployment to Mali is UN mandated (which is one of the conditions required). Its also a non-combat mission (training of Mali Army).

Thomas_IV

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Corbyn is truly awful. Yet again, he slinks away from representing the wishes of his party. 75% of Labour voters want a second referendum but Corbyn refuses to even put the option on the table. This is what happens when ideology takes precedence over pragmatism.

Did you ever expect anything than ideology from that chap? I never did expect anything else and therefore I am not in the slightest disappointed in him, but the disgust at that man is increasing for a long time by now. He's become unbearable with his 'soft-Brexit' nonsense and his tactics to seek a way to topple May but when he gets the chance to do it he fails utterly.

Just to remember, the many people who voted him in as leader of the LP are as much ideologists as he is himself. The Momentum movement is the one outside the LP that managed to vote him in by an huge increase of new membership applications in August / September 2015 in order to vote for him. Before that, he was either a nobody or just the 'black sheep' that held a seat since 1983 but always voted against his own party.

The UK LP has been taken over by a bunch of far-left ideologists and they are also backed up by likewise Trade Union activists and representatives.

With Corbyn remaining as the leader of the LP and a UK exiting the EU without a deal, the UK LP fate might become as similar crushing for them like the Irish LP has experienced in 2015 as well. In compare with both of them, the UK LP has nobody but to blame herself for that and of course Corbyn for his tactical misconduct in order to get into No 10, which he desires the most but hopefully will never get.