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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Folkstonian

listermint wrote: »

Then explain why the 'Take Back Control' and Sovereignty message rings so heavily with Leave Voters. These were ultra powerful motivators for them. And it was based on it harking back to a time when they were the boss of all around them, king of the seas so to speak.

I dont see how you can explain the coupling of that message with Leave and not equate it to looking back nostalgically to an era before

Are they looking for control of former colonies or control of domestic affairs do you think?

listermint

Additionally if i might add, Can you explain why we have various Minsters verbally saying that Ireland should know its place and they would starve us into submission.

It appears you are not approaching this with open eyes, That is Empire 101 and cannot be construed as meaning anything else.

listermint

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've always found the idea that the British voted to leave based on a desire to reclaim a lost empire cringeworthy to be honest and an idea with virtually no basis in reality. Every country has its nostalgic idiocy so I would expect a few of the sixty-something inhabitants of this island to believe that. Same sort of thing with Irish barstool republicans or the stereotypes of truck-driving, gun toting, bible bashing rustbelters of the United States.

In my opinion, the seeds of the Leave vote in 2016 were sown in the Blair years. Blair espoused the same sort of free market neoliberal ideology initially pursued in the UK by Margaret Thatcher. In doing so, he robbed the British people of any sort of political alternative as both major parties were essentially singing from the same hymn sheet. Three if you count the Liberal Democrats. Successive neoliberal governments hollowed out British institutions such as Tony Blair prohibiting anything coming up in cabinet he wasn't briefed for, privatising or outsourcing as much of the state as possible and decimating unions. Church, which might have once provided a sense of community for some has been on the decline for some time. That's not necessarily a bad thing but social media and consumerism are pretty appalling replacements. Then we had austerity which hit the working classes the hardest while tax dodging billionaires, press barons, oligarchs and the well-connected made a killing.

All of this might be bad enough but there's been no effort to invest in the country's infrastructure. Housebuilding barely occurs, class sizes at schools are increasing while traditional employers of the working classes have either emigrated, closed down or employed robots. I don’t know if anyone watched Brexit: The Uncivil War on Channel 4 last night. There’s a scene towards the end where the Britain Stronger In Europe hold a focus group of 7 people from different backgrounds. Soon enough, they start bickering. Craig Oliver enters the room and one working class woman starts shrieking that she’s fed up of feeling like nothing because her community has been ignored.

A friend recently suggested watching Sunderland ‘Til I Die on Netflix. The producers interview a taxi driver at various points who explains that Sunderland AFC is the only thing the people of Sunderland have left. The Shipbuilding and Mining industries which employed the local populace have left while the place has been completely ignored by politicians. I’d argue this is a better representation of why most working class voted Leave to be honest.

Then explain why the 'Take Back Control' and Sovereignty message rings so heavily with Leave Voters. These were ultra powerful motivators for them. And it was based on it harking back to a time when they were the boss of all around them, king of the seas so to speak.

I dont see how you can explain the coupling of that message with Leave and not equate it to looking back nostalgically to an era before

An Ciarraioch

RobMc59 wrote: »

Your personal dislike of Britains past could be viewed as irrelevant in a brexit discussion-and regarding Commonwealth countries,Canada and Australia amongst others have chosen to retain close ties with the UK.

But economically, members have vastly diversified their export and import markets, with Australia concentrating on China and SE Asia, while Canada does most trade with the US and Pacific nations.

ancapailldorcha

jm08 wrote: »

Yes, only about 7,000 are directly employed by Nissan. They won't miss those jobs if they move to Poland or the Czech Republic because of Brexit.

The suppliers, local shops, services, etc. won't miss those 7,000 paychecks every week hitting the local economy either.

Again, I'm not saying that these jobs are trivial. I'm saying that the people of Sunderland, 61% to be exact decided that voting to Leave was in their best interests. I'm not saying that it was the right decision or that it was made based on facts. I am simply advocating trying to understand why.

jm08 wrote: »

And that is going to change with Brexit?

I'm not arguing for Brexit. I'm trying to fall into the very tempting trap of dehumanising and "othering" people who don't agree with me which is proving difficult in this age of echo chambers, tailored news feeds and social media.

RobMc59

jm08 wrote: »

England was prosperous then and that is what the nostalgia is about. They don't realise that gunboat diplomacy doesn't work anymore. As I heard one trade negotiator saying when asked what the Commonwealth thought about brexit, he said ''they smell blood in the water and are ready to pounce.''

Your personal dislike of Britains past could be viewed as irrelevant in a brexit discussion-and regarding Commonwealth countries,Canada and Australia amongst others have chosen to retain close ties with the UK.

ancapailldorcha

Tell me how wrote: »

Could Brexit have helped to remove the shiny facade that UK politics has had and lead people to look for something different?

Could it? Certainly.

Will it? Only time will tell. Presently, we see vested interests consolidating themselves such as moving their assets abroad. Corbyn is showing no sign of flexibility whatsoever beyond his position of constructive ambiguity while Theresa May decided to trap herself in a box painted with her own red lines. We have two sides bickering.

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

jm08

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

England is still prosperous. The problem is that said prosperity is being enjoyed by only a select few.

And that is going to change with Brexit?

jm08

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Most people in Sunderland don't work for Nissan.

Yes, only about 7,000 are directly employed by Nissan. They won't miss those jobs if they move to Poland or the Czech Republic because of Brexit.

The suppliers, local shops, services, etc. won't miss those 7,000 paychecks every week hitting the local economy either.

ancapailldorcha

jm08 wrote: »

England was prosperous then and that is what the nostalgia is about. They don't realise that gunboat diplomacy doesn't work anymore. As I heard one trade negotiator saying when asked what the Commonwealth thought about brexit, he said ''they smell blood in the water and are ready to pounce.''

England is still prosperous. The problem is that said prosperity is being enjoyed by only a select few.

jm08

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Thanks for the link.

However, this hasn't really got anything to do with the EU referendum vote. It simply says that 44% of people are proud of Britain's imperial past.

England was prosperous then and that is what the nostalgia is about. They don't realise that gunboat diplomacy doesn't work anymore. As I heard one trade negotiator saying when asked what the Commonwealth thought about brexit, he said ''they smell blood in the water and are ready to pounce.''

ancapailldorcha

jm08 wrote: »

Sunderland has Nissan which is a lot more than a lot of regions have. Despite being told by Nissan to vote remain, they voted to leave. Explain that one!

Most people in Sunderland don't work for Nissan.

jm08

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A friend recently suggested watching Sunderland ‘Til I Die on Netflix. The producers interview a taxi driver at various points who explains that Sunderland AFC is the only thing the people of Sunderland have left. The Shipbuilding and Mining industries which employed the local populace have left while the place has been completely ignored by politicians. I’d argue this is a better representation of why most working class voted Leave to be honest.

Sunderland has Nissan which is a lot more than a lot of regions have. Despite being told by Nissan to vote remain, they voted to leave. Explain that one!

ancapailldorcha

Igotadose wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-people-are-proud-of-colonialism-and-the-british-empire-poll-finds-a6821206.html

"YouGov found 44 per cent were proud of Britain’s history of colonialism while only 21 per cent regretted that it happened. 23 per cent held neither view.

The same poll also asked about whether the British Empire was a good thing or a bad thing: 43 per cent said it was good, while only 19 per cent said it was bad. 25 per cent responded that it was “neither”."

Thanks for the link.

However, this hasn't really got anything to do with the EU referendum vote. It simply says that 44% of people are proud of Britain's imperial past.

Dytalus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Of course. The status quo isn't viable whatever way this turns out. If it were, we wouldn't have Brexit.

I don't know about neo-colonialists but there's was a serious whiff of nastiness towards foreigners during and after the Leave campaign with the highlight for me being Nigel Farage's infamous refugees poster. Then there's the overplayed thread of Turkey joining. I'm not saying that 17.4 million Leave voters are Xenophobes but the journey to the leave vote certainly showed some troubling sentiments.

This was my general view. While there's definitely some nastiness coming out of the general population that I hadn't seen before (most of what I encountered living in England a few years ago was genuine ignorance of foreign things, rather than maliciousness), most of the 'imperialist attitudes' seems to be coming from the press and politicians.

I definitely pick up a sentiment of "the good old days of the empire" from certain elements of British discourse, but I think it's unfair to say that's the main reason people voted the way they did. People are more pushed to vote by what's directly around them - like the decline of wealth and living conditions in their hometown. That their desperation and poor conditions were taken advantage of is something to be disgusted by, not to blame them for.

Igotadose

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Do you have a source for this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-people-are-proud-of-colonialism-and-the-british-empire-poll-finds-a6821206.html

"YouGov found 44 per cent were proud of Britain’s history of colonialism while only 21 per cent regretted that it happened. 23 per cent held neither view.

The same poll also asked about whether the British Empire was a good thing or a bad thing: 43 per cent said it was good, while only 19 per cent said it was bad. 25 per cent responded that it was “neither”."

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've always found the idea that the British voted to leave based on a desire to reclaim a lost empire cringeworthy to be honest and an idea with virtually no basis in reality. Every country has its nostalgic idiocy so I would expect a few of the sixty-something inhabitants of this island to believe that. Same sort of thing with Irish barstool republicans or the stereotypes of truck-driving, gun toting, bible bashing rustbelters of the United States.

In my opinion, the seeds of the Leave vote in 2016 were sown in the Blair years. Blair espoused the same sort of free market neoliberal ideology initially pursued in the UK by Margaret Thatcher. In doing so, he robbed the British people of any sort of political alternative as both major parties were essentially singing from the same hymn sheet. Three if you count the Liberal Democrats. Successive neoliberal governments hollowed out British institutions such as Tony Blair prohibiting anything coming up in cabinet he wasn't briefed for, privatising or outsourcing as much of the state as possible and decimating unions. Church, which might have once provided a sense of community for some has been on the decline for some time. That's not necessarily a bad thing but social media and consumerism are pretty appalling replacements. Then we had austerity which hit the working classes the hardest while tax dodging billionaires, press barons, oligarchs and the well-connected made a killing.

All of this might be bad enough but there's been no effort to invest in the country's infrastructure. Housebuilding barely occurs, class sizes at schools are increasing while traditional employers of the working classes have either emigrated, closed down or employed robots. I don’t know if anyone watched Brexit: The Uncivil War on Channel 4 last night. There’s a scene towards the end where the Britain Stronger In Europe hold a focus group of 7 people from different backgrounds. Soon enough, they start bickering. Craig Oliver enters the room and one working class woman starts shrieking that she’s fed up of feeling like nothing because her community has been ignored.

A friend recently suggested watching Sunderland ‘Til I Die on Netflix. The producers interview a taxi driver at various points who explains that Sunderland AFC is the only thing the people of Sunderland have left. The Shipbuilding and Mining industries which employed the local populace have left while the place has been completely ignored by politicians. I’d argue this is a better representation of why most working class voted Leave to be honest.

All of those events have had an impact in influencing perception of the political class within the UK. I would argue though that that in itself wasn't sufficient to motivate voting to leave. It was a perfect storm of political apathy within the electorate (as outlined above), the false information as to the benefits of leaving (€350M for NHS), the Arab spring unleashing migrants at greater numbers on Europe and the sense that maybe remain was going to win anyway so why not give the government a bloody nose.

I believe the final push to get the remain over the line was influenced by outside forces (1.5B ads/day targeted at 7M selected individuals via social media).

If it had been 52/48 in favour of remaining, the last 2 years would have been very different politically in the UK. But, I wonder if the fiasco that these two years have been will influence the UK towards electing a more responsible government.

Could Brexit have helped to remove the shiny facade that UK politics has had and lead people to look for something different?

ancapailldorcha

hill16bhoy wrote: »

It's not the whole truth but there is a huge amount of truth in it. The majority of British people see their history of empire as something to be proud of, not ashamed of. So they're starting with a fundamental misunderstanding of history.

Do you have a source for this?

hill16bhoy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've always found the idea that the British voted to leave based on a desire to reclaim a lost empire cringeworthy to be honest and an idea with virtually no basis in reality. Every country has its nostalgic idiocy so I would expect a few of the sixty-something inhabitants of this island to believe that. Same sort of thing with Irish barstool republicans or the stereotypes of truck-driving, gun toting, bible bashing rustbelters of the United States.

It's not the whole truth but there is a huge amount of truth in it. The majority of British people see their history of empire as something to be proud of, not ashamed of. So they're starting with a fundamental misunderstanding of history.

Every country may have "nostalgic idiocy" (and this is becoming a serious problem for politics pretty much everywhere), but the thing that Britain and the US have in common is that their political systems are set up in such a binary way as to allow such nostalgic idiocy to become a dominant narrative.

That "nostalgic idiocy" narrative has been in control of the Tory party for decades and is pushed constantly by huge swathes of the British press - and the newspapers that push this narrative are the most read newspapers there.

In the US, "nostalgic idiocy" was specifically what drove Trump's popularity. It was right there in his slogan.

The Brexit campaign fed hugely off that too.

ancapailldorcha

Folkstonian wrote: »

If you accept that many leave votes came from people worrying about the complete degradation of the wealth, identity and industry of their home town over the past 20 to 30 years, you have to also accept that overturning the vote would not be any sort of victory in and of itself. It would be one step on a long road.

To turn it into a victory, you would need to acknowledge that there are legitimate concerns, but annoyingly you’d be obliged at this point to work towards fixing the country afterwards. And that will be slow, arduous, complicated and expensive.

Of course. The status quo isn't viable whatever way this turns out. If it were, we wouldn't have Brexit.

Folkstonian wrote: »

If you accept that many leave votes came So it’s probably better to label Brexit voters simply as neo-colonialists, xenophobes and isolationists. C’est la vie.

I don't know about neo-colonialists but there's was a serious whiff of nastiness towards foreigners during and after the Leave campaign with the highlight for me being Nigel Farage's infamous refugees poster. Then there's the overplayed thread of Turkey joining. I'm not saying that 17.4 million Leave voters are Xenophobes but the journey to the leave vote certainly showed some troubling sentiments.

Folkstonian

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've always found the idea that the British voted to leave based on a desire to reclaim a lost empire cringeworthy to be honest and an idea with virtually no basis in reality. Every country has its nostalgic idiocy so I would expect a few of the sixty-something inhabitants of this island to believe that. Same sort of thing with Irish barstool republicans or the stereotypes of truck-driving, gun toting, bible bashing rustbelters of the United States.

In my opinion, the seeds of the Leave vote in 2016 were sown in the Blair years. Blair espoused the same sort of free market neoliberal ideology initially pursued in the UK by Margaret Thatcher. In doing so, he robbed the British people of any sort of political alternative as both major parties were essentially singing from the same hymn sheet. Three if you count the Liberal Democrats. Successive neoliberal governments hollowed out British institutions such as Tony Blair prohibiting anything coming up in cabinet he wasn't briefed for, privatising or outsourcing as much of the state as possible and decimating unions. Church, which might have once provided a sense of community for some has been on the decline for some time. That's not necessarily a bad thing but social media and consumerism are pretty appalling replacements. Then we had austerity which hit the working classes the hardest while tax dodging billionaires, press barons, oligarchs and the well-connected made a killing.

All of this might be bad enough but there's been no effort to invest in the country's infrastructure. Housebuilding barely occurs, class sizes at schools are increasing while traditional employers of the working classes have either emigrated, closed down or employed robots. I don’t know if anyone watched Brexit: The Uncivil War on Channel 4 last night. There’s a scene towards the end where the Britain Stronger In Europe hold a focus group of 7 people from different backgrounds. Soon enough, they start bickering. Craig Oliver enters the room and one working class woman starts shrieking that she’s fed up of feeling like nothing because her community has been ignored.

A friend recently suggested watching Sunderland ‘Til I Die on Netflix. The producers interview a taxi driver at various points who explains that Sunderland AFC is the only thing the people of Sunderland have left. The Shipbuilding and Mining industries which employed the local populace have left while the place has been completely ignored by politicians. I’d argue this is a better representation of why most working class voted Leave to be honest.

It is easier and probably more fun - whether you are an outside observer in Ireland or (more pertinently) a remain supporting activist in the cauldron of British politics - to convince yourself and others that millions of people in working class towns who voted to leave are now drawing up plans for the retaking of Ceylon, Rhodesia and Bengal.

If you accept that many leave votes came from people worrying about the complete degradation of the wealth, identity and industry of their home town over the past 20 to 30 years, you have to also accept that overturning the vote would not be any sort of victory in and of itself. It would be one step on a long road.

To turn it into a victory, you would need to acknowledge that there are legitimate concerns, but annoyingly you’d be obliged at this point to work towards fixing the country afterwards. And that will be slow, arduous, complicated and expensive.

So it’s probably better to label Brexit voters simply as neo-colonialists, xenophobes and isolationists. C’est la vie.

Folkstonian

Bambi wrote: »

DeGaulle was right back in the day. It's the old Empire delusion, still a world power and all that lark.

History stopped for the Brits after The Yanks and Russians won WW2, they'd have been better off stopping it after the fall of Singapore: With their arse kicked out of Europe, Their empire gone and being bled by the former colonies for imports to keep themselves fed and watered.

And they say that the teaching of history in Britain is bad.

Whatever you think of how the U.K. has conducted itself (quite shoddily I’ll agree) in Europe over the last number of years, this post is either an appallingly ignorant, or appallingly malicious revision of the british contribution to the destruction of nazi Germany and the rebuilding of Europe that followed.

ancapailldorcha

I've always found the idea that the British voted to leave based on a desire to reclaim a lost empire cringeworthy to be honest and an idea with virtually no basis in reality. Every country has its nostalgic idiocy so I would expect a few of the sixty-something inhabitants of this island to believe that. Same sort of thing with Irish barstool republicans or the stereotypes of truck-driving, gun toting, bible bashing rustbelters of the United States.

In my opinion, the seeds of the Leave vote in 2016 were sown in the Blair years. Blair espoused the same sort of free market neoliberal ideology initially pursued in the UK by Margaret Thatcher. In doing so, he robbed the British people of any sort of political alternative as both major parties were essentially singing from the same hymn sheet. Three if you count the Liberal Democrats. Successive neoliberal governments hollowed out British institutions such as Tony Blair prohibiting anything coming up in cabinet he wasn't briefed for, privatising or outsourcing as much of the state as possible and decimating unions. Church, which might have once provided a sense of community for some has been on the decline for some time. That's not necessarily a bad thing but social media and consumerism are pretty appalling replacements. Then we had austerity which hit the working classes the hardest while tax dodging billionaires, press barons, oligarchs and the well-connected made a killing.

All of this might be bad enough but there's been no effort to invest in the country's infrastructure. Housebuilding barely occurs, class sizes at schools are increasing while traditional employers of the working classes have either emigrated, closed down or employed robots. I don’t know if anyone watched Brexit: The Uncivil War on Channel 4 last night. There’s a scene towards the end where the Britain Stronger In Europe hold a focus group of 7 people from different backgrounds. Soon enough, they start bickering. Craig Oliver enters the room and one working class woman starts shrieking that she’s fed up of feeling like nothing because her community has been ignored.

A friend recently suggested watching Sunderland ‘Til I Die on Netflix. The producers interview a taxi driver at various points who explains that Sunderland AFC is the only thing the people of Sunderland have left. The Shipbuilding and Mining industries which employed the local populace have left while the place has been completely ignored by politicians. I’d argue this is a better representation of why most working class voted Leave to be honest.

Skelet0n

El Weirdo wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Germans did well because they controlled the labour unions through cooperation, and did not spend on the military.

Did they have much choice in that?

West Germany was allowed to rearm in 1954 after the French dropped their objection due to the larger threat of the Soviet Union.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

TBF, the UK of today is very different from the UK back then. I think it was mainly down to good old fashioned French belligerence.

Nobody could have foreseen the UK that it is today, heck we are all amazed at what is going on.

De Gaulle felt that the British leaned more towards the US than Europe and because of that wouldn't ever be fully engaged in the process.

Leroy42

road_high wrote: »

Often wonder why De Gaulle and co were so opposed. Used put it down to good old fashioned French beligerence and hatred of the English. It’s only now I can see where they were coming from...!

TBF, the UK of today is very different from the UK back then. I think it was mainly down to good old fashioned French belligerence.

Nobody could have foreseen the UK that it is today, heck we are all amazed at what is going on.

road_high

Bambi wrote: »

DeGaulle was right back in the day. It's the old Empire delusion, still a world power and all that lark.

History stopped for the Brits after The Yanks and Russians won WW2, they'd have been better off stopping it after the fall of Singapore: With their arse kicked out of Europe, Their empire gone and being bled by the former colonies for imports to keep themselves fed and watered.

Often wonder why De Gaulle and co were so opposed. Used put it down to good old fashioned French beligerence and hatred of the English. It’s only now I can see where they were coming from...!

Imreoir2

El Weirdo wrote: »

Did they have much choice in that?

Look at Japan, they were in much the same poistion as Germany and they spend hugely on their Military. The US want's Germany to spend more not less on arms. They had a choice, they could have become a hevily armed US ally in Europe, they chose not to go down that route.

El Weirdo

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Germans did well because they controlled the labour unions through cooperation, and did not spend on the military.

Did they have much choice in that?

BonnieSituation

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Anyone who suggests that the UK can comply with WTO rules along the N.I. border without a hard border has never been to the N.I. border (or has only been on the M1/A1).

Sure even when you use the M1 you get to see the vagaries such as the Jonesboro slip road and its multiple speed signs where the border cuts through it.