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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Larbre34

Put on Sky News now. Tells you everything you need to know about where we are.

trellheim

They can get language, and I'd bet clarifying / softening language has already been worked on by the EU team - they're just withholding it to the last moment so it can be spun by May as an "achievement" before the vote.

Language isn't enough for them of course, but so be it. The deal took the guts of two years to negotiate and they had plenty of time to offer substantive output. On towards the cliff edge we go...

It will be very interesting to see if any verbal concessions will be enough of a fig-leaf and save face - it'll be a hard sell but otherwise its the abyss

strawdog

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I see 3 possibilities:

May runs down the clock, and MPs give in and pass her deal to avoid No Deal as the deadline looms.

May tries this, an MPs do not give in and the UK crashes out with no deal.

Finally, May tries this, MPs do not give in and at the last minute Parliament passes a vote instructing May to withdraw A50.

I don't see how we get an election or a 2nd referendum before April, and I can't see the EU27 agreeing to extend the deadline for time for more shenanigans at Westminster.

Still think option 1 could possibly happen despite the polls and noise coming from Westminster. With the help of the expected language fig leaf from the EU, prospects for May's deal might turnaround in the coming days if MPs against it find some sort of De Valera-esque face saving approach and vote for it as an 'empty political formula' to stave off the No Deal catastrophe.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

So what do people think TM needs to get from the EU in order to get the deal agreed in HoC and what hope does she have of getting it?

About the only thing she can get is confirmation that UK can unilaterally leave the CU but NI would be special economical area if that happens basically. That's about as good as it can get and they can throw NI under the Brexit bus but that only works if Labour would for some reason vote for it as well.

I don't think it will be enough but that's about as far as I can see it go.

BonnieSituation

trellheim wrote: »

Latest

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46784643

What "next stage of negotiations"?

BonnieSituation

Larbre34 wrote: »

Put on Sky News now. Tells you everything you need to know about where we are.

And what's happening for those of us in the office...

J Mysterio

In a damning article in the Irish Times, Irish Road Haulage Association slam the UKs 'Operation Brock', which aims to simulate No Deal haulage chaos.

"Verona Murphy, president of the Irish Road Haulage Association, said the no-deal planning exercise in Kent was “of no help and totally frivolous” given that the sample of 89 trucks bore no relation to the thousands of lorries that passed through Dover every day.

“It is totally and utterly bonkers,” said Ms Murphy"

Really seems like a token gesture at No Deal planning. A bit of a joke really, and a further waste of taxpayers money. Nice advertising for Eddie Stobart though.

Leroy42

TBF, they have to start somewhere. This is after all simply a test of the process. You don't need a full amount to run a test. They can see the issues they encountered and then extrapolate them up from there. It could have just been as simply as working out if the lanes/gates were sufficient

I agree though, that it only adds to the sense that all of this is a complete mess and that they can't even get the test right.

Dyr

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And what's happening for those of us in the office...

Just in, EU position is the same as it has been since November, the's weather next

Enzokk

foxyladyxx wrote: »

The hard line Brexiteers have threatened to vote if another referendum is proposed. They will not accept anything but a leave the EU result.

I can foresee violence if that is how it pans out..

Believe me there are extremists in their midst and I really do think the police will have their hands full with law and order.

Not sure what your first point is, what vote will they take? Can you clarify?

As to the threat of violence there really is no point of doing anything if the threat of violence will have you back down. Want to cut costs? Get people to threaten violence and it will go away. Want to spend more on defense and less on social welfare? Have people threaten violence and the decision will not happen.

I would in fact be more concerned from the violence of a hard Brexit if there are food and medicine shortage than the threat of a few middle aged white men not getting their way.

J Mysterio wrote: »

In a damning article in the Irish Times, Irish Road Haulage Association slam the UKs 'Operation Brock', which aims to simulate No Deal haulage chaos.

"Verona Murphy, president of the Irish Road Haulage Association, said the no-deal planning exercise in Kent was “of no help and totally frivolous” given that the sample of 89 trucks bore no relation to the thousands of lorries that passed through Dover every day.

“It is totally and utterly bonkers,” said Ms Murphy"

Really seems like a token gesture at No Deal planning. A bit of a joke really, and a further waste of taxpayers money. Nice advertising for Eddie Stobart though.

Another article on the operation mentioned that staff at the local McDonalds said it was quieter than normal. Seems people knew they were going to test the traffic and then avoided the area. That sort of negates what they were trying to test out surely. Also, they were hoping for 150 trucks and only 89 showed up so even then they had less than they thought for the test. As mentioned this is way less than the 5000 or so that goes to the EU every day.

No-deal Brexit rehearsal in Kent 'a waste of time'

Staff at the nearby McDonalds said local drivers had steered clear of the area this morning. “Everyone new this was happened, so stayed away. It’s been very quiet,” said one.

On Theresa May getting the vote through, seems she will get a letter from the EU stating the aim is to have a trade deal done by 2021 so no need for the backstop. This is not new or any different than what she currently has and her strategy will fall flat when the question is asked of what happens if a trade deal is not concluded before 2021. They may aim to have one done but that is not a deadline.

Brexit: EU to reassure May with pledge for trade deal by 2021

Theresa May is likely to be offered an “exchange of letters” confirming the EU’s intention to conclude trade talks with the UK by 2021, as Brussels seeks to help the prime minister in the run-up to next week’s Commons vote on her deal.

The correspondence under discussion would flesh out language already included in the withdrawal agreement but it is hoped its clarity could persuade some MPs of the EU’s intention to avoid triggering the Irish backstop.

Should talks on a sufficiently comprehensive and deep future trade deal be agreed and ratified by the the start of 2021, it is hoped there would be no need for the whole of the UK to fall into the customs union envisaged by that “all-weather” solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

The target-date cited in the mooted correspondence would not constitute a deadline for concluding the trade talks, however, and EU officials are sceptical as to whether the gambit will be sufficient to win over enough MPs to get May’s contentious deal through parliament.

The only thing that will get her deal through is if enough MP's that have voiced their opposition is scared into voting for it and if Labour stays in opposition to it. That is all she has right now, the threat of no-deal to get it to pass. Still don't know how she gets enough Labour votes to get past the 10 DUP and about 30 ERG hardliners though.

Enzokk

I do think though that the odds of violence against activists and MPs is increasing because of Brexit. This is not to say that not following through with it has made it more or less likely, but the language that has been employed before and since the referendum. We already have had one MP murdered by someone in her constituency because of the language employed during the campaign and with the headlines in the papers talking of traitors it has and will only increase until we unfortunately have another serious incident.

To highlight just some of the abuse that people have to suffer here is some of it.

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1082283185159983104

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1082256193035345920

The easiest answer to this is proper press regulation, yet MPs have watered this down since the Leveson enquiry and the press has not changed their ways in any way since then. This has meant the likes of the criminal Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (Tommy Robinson) has gotten a voice when in reality he should not be getting any airtime at all.

Leroy42

But even a trade deal, if concluded in time, will necessitate alignment and rule taking. It doesn't deal with the fundamental issue of Brexit that the UK no longer wishes to accept the rules from Brussels

Larbre34

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And what's happening for those of us in the office...

Touché.

Anna Soubry came over to Burley on the Sky podium on the green opposite Westminster, was harangued all the way by EDL scum calling her nazi, liar etc (the irony) they had to change microphone type to try and block them out, gave Burley a dose of it too, sounded a bit like the 1930s again

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

But even a trade deal, if concluded in time, will necessitate alignment and rule taking. It doesn't deal with the fundamental issue of Brexit that the UK no longer wishes to accept the rules from Brussels

Depends on the trade deal but I understand what you are saying. If they want to avoid a hard border then it will mean alignment, otherwise there will be checks. And around the same argument we go again and again and again.

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

To highlight just some of the abuse that people have to suffer here is some of it.

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1082283185159983104

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1082256193035345920

That is really intimidating. He took it all about as well as good be expected, but it must be pretty scary that one of these people is going to lash out.

And that will only increase as the vote get closer and Brexit day approaches.

What supposedly started off as a pushback against illegal immigration has turned into a people openly calling other citizens traitors

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

But even a trade deal, if concluded in time, will necessitate alignment and rule taking. It doesn't deal with the fundamental issue of Brexit that the UK no longer wishes to accept the rules from Brussels

I would tweak this to suggest that the fundamental issue with Brexit is that most of the UK misunderstood just what their membership of the EU meant both in the origins of rules which actually affect them, and the benefits of membership.

Tell me how

Larbre34 wrote: »

Touché.

Anna Soubry came over to Burley on the Sky podium on the green opposite Westminster, was harangued all the way by EDL scum calling her nazi, liar etc (the irony) they had to change microphone type to try and block them out, gave Burley a dose of it too, sounded a bit like the 1930s again

Can imagine what is happening away from the cameras and microphones. Seems a very bitter start to 2019 over there.

MrMusician18

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/investing/brexit-banks-moving-assets/index.html

They should put that on a side of a bus and drive it up and down the length of the country.

Given the value of all UK assets is about £10tn, $1tn is not to be sneezed at

Larbre34

Tell me how wrote: »

Can imagine what is happening away from the cameras and microphones. Seems a very bitter start to 2019 over there.

Further apart than ever, more intractable than ever, more bitter than ever.

Warm the popcorn.

listermint

Tell me how wrote: »

Can imagine what is happening away from the cameras and microphones. Seems a very bitter start to 2019 over there.

The main protagonist in that video is selling tshirts and has a go fund me campaign for his heroic efforts to shout Nazi and call people names on a daily basis and throw abuse into his face.

This is not so much about A new UK for him as a money spinning exercise that he has to do very little work for but act the lout daily.

Leroy42

I wonder why the police seemingly do nothing. Surely it falls under the terms of hate crime?

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

I wonder why the police seemingly do nothing. Surely it falls under the terms of hate crime?

They're probably viewing it more as 'freedom of speech' in the main.

If they start arresting and citing hate speech, it could lead to claims of 'police state' from these groups and their voices in the media. K Hopkins, JHB etc.

Messy messy environment. I wonder does the likes of Anna Soubry have some form of security? Even just a driver or someone to ensure they aren't attacked.

MrMusician18

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is really intimidating. He took it all about as well as good be expected, but it must be pretty scary that one of these people is going to lash out.

And that will only increase as the vote get closer and Brexit day approaches.

What supposedly started off as a pushback against illegal immigration has turned into a people openly calling other citizens traitors

Owen Jones is a eurosceptic and has advocated for the UK to leave The EU in the past...

Strange times over there.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is really intimidating. He took it all about as well as good be expected, but it must be pretty scary that one of these people is going to lash out.

And that will only increase as the vote get closer and Brexit day approaches.

What supposedly started off as a pushback against illegal immigration has turned into a people openly calling other citizens traitors

The press take much of the blame here, claiming they are against the "establishment" and "the elite" and on the side of "the people". This is insane stuff : the right wing press saying they reject the government, the Parliament, the civil service and the judiciary and the only thing they respect is the will of the people. No wonder every right wing chav in Britain feels emboldened.

Enzokk

listermint wrote: »

The main protagonist in that video is selling tshirts and has a go fund me campaign for his heroic efforts to shout Nazi and call people names on a daily basis and throw abuse into his face.

This is not so much about A new UK for him as a money spinning exercise that he has to do very little work for but act the lout daily.

Do you mean this charming fellow?

https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1082304571580534786

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Owen Jones is a eurosceptic and has advocated for the UK to leave The EU in the past...

Strange times over there.

Owen Jones is not a eurosceptic. He is probably just too involved and invested in the Corbyn cult and so he thinks he is eurosceptic.

Seth Brundle

Enzokk wrote: »

Do you mean this charming fellow?

https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1082304571580534786

"You ain't even fu**in British!"
If that's what it means to be British then it's no wonder thousands want an Irish passport!

J Mysterio

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/investing/brexit-banks-moving-assets/index.html

They should put that on a side of a bus and drive it up and down the length of the country.

Although it is to be expected, this is still very startling. The UK have stumbled into an existential crisis. They are destroying their economy, the Union, and social cohesion. Dark times indeed and it will only get worse.

In other news... Dublin remains top ‘Brexodus’ location ahead of Frankfurt and Paris, EY says

Dublin continues to be the top location for financial services companies looking to relocate operations from the UK as a result of Brexit, with 27 groups having committed to moving staff or activities here since the June 2016 referendum, according to EY’s latest Brexit Tracker study.

The figures were for the end of November 2018, and mark an increase from 21 in September, according to the accounting firm. Frankfurt remains in second place, at 17, followed by Luxembourg at 16. Paris has moved up to 11, from 10 in September.

“With only 30 per cent of London-based companies so far committing to any relocation of activity, there could be opportunities for Ireland to pursue in the months head,” said Simon MacAllister, a partner and Brexit lead for EY Ireland. “The latest figures are encouraging for Ireland as there were concerns that rising costs would impact its relative attractiveness.”

J Mysterio

To get back to ordinary people... this is a really interesting (and introspectice) article by a gay couple (one English, one Northern Irish Presbyterian) who cycled the border, and framed their journey in the context of Brexit. Doesn't really paint a pretty picture mind.

Cycling the Border, 2018: ‘At least yous are Prods, you f**kers’

Peter Flynt

I'm not seeing much condemnation on Twitter regarding the thugs around Anna Soubry & Owen Jones from those who led the brexit campaign.

namloc1980

Enzokk wrote: »

Do you mean this charming fellow?

https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1082304571580534786

The war is on but only on a Saturday.